Race for 1 Seed (2/5)

[auror]

@auror...your thoughts?

How the committee might look at it (in a pairwise fashion):

Predictive edge - Florida **
Resume edge (tbd)
Head to head - UConn *
Top end wins - UConn **
Bad losses - Florida *

Comparison - 3-3 without the resume component.

UConn has the 3 best wins by WAB between the two (but at Vandy is essentially right behind them), even adding in the wins Florida could get in the SECT. If we discount Florida's potential game on Sunday because essentially all of the committee's scrubbing and discussions will be done before then, they can add about 2 WAB to their resume. They're at 7.4 now, so call it 9.5 WAB. Because of Florida's predictive metrics edge (around 5 rank lead in most) and lack of bad losses, UConn needs at least some edge in the resume category.

If UConn loses to Marquette, it would drop to 8.4 WAB, and then beating someone like Marquette or DePaul in 7/10 game gets you ~0.3, and Nova or Seton Hall on neutral gets you 0.4 or 0.5. Losing to St. John's in the final would be a 0.3 deficit for a total of around 8.9.

So I don't think they can lose to Marquette and then not win the BET in this Florida wins out scenario. Beating Marquette is essential.

Gotta pray for a Florida early exit and then win out.

Agree with Nick about the Midwest being open for business again. Some of the logjams have changed around a bit.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Gotta pray for a Florida early exit and then win out.

Agree with Nick about the Midwest being open for business again. Some of the logjams have changed around a bit.

Thanks. Do you think we are safely on the 2 line?

 

[District-Husky]

Give us the 2 in the east.

 

[auror]

Thanks. Do you think we are safely on the 2 line?

Feels pretty safe. Obviously don't tempt fate by losing next game, but it would probably take deep runs by multiple teams in addition to the loss to knock us to a 3. Head to head with Illinois helps.

 

[UCann]

Are we firmly on the 2 line? I think it's universally accepted that Florida is currently ahead of us for the last 1 seed. I could see Houston also ahead of us, which would put them in Florida's region as the 2 seed, in Houston for the regionals.

Right now the 2 seeds on CBS and ESPN are Houston, UConn, Illinois, and Michigan St. They have the 3 seeds as Alabama/Iowa St/Purdue/Virginia (CBS) or Iowa St/Nebraska/Purdue/Gonzaga (ESPN). Both sites have us in the Midwest Region with Michigan.

I’d be fine in a region with Michigan. They’re struggling with Michigan State a home, a team we handled pretty thoroughly earlier this year. Plus Big 10 is always over rated.

 

[auror]

Now that the bracket is out, we very much want to avoid an Illinois vs. Nebraska Big Ten tournament final.

 

[bendm]

Now that the bracket is out, we very much want to avoid an Illinois vs. Nebraska Big Ten tournament final.

Because Nebraska could steal our 2? Wouldn’t they steal it from MSU especially given their L today?

 

[auror]

Because Nebraska could steal our 2? Wouldn’t they steal it from MSU especially given their L today?

Maybe, but the scenario is if we lose our first BE game, we might fall behind MSU (they'd pass us in WAB if they beat UCLA after our upset) and then those other teams pass us, too with a couple more Q1A wins.

But I agree that we're pretty safe. It's unlikely we finish behind 3 of the 4 Big Ten teams on that 2/3 seedline, since they're going to have to play each other.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Maybe, but the scenario is if we lose our first BE game, we might fall behind MSU (they'd pass us in WAB if they beat UCLA after our upset) and then those other teams pass us, too with a couple more Q1A wins.

But I agree that we're pretty safe. It's unlikely we finish behind 3 of the 4 Big Ten teams on that 2/3 seedline, since they're going to have to play each other.

The good news is Michigan St, Nebraska and Purdue are all on one side of the Big 10 bracket.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Everyone needs to relax. Our WAB is 8.5. Florida’s is 8.2 We beat them head to head. We are very much in the discussion and we were ahead of them going into yesterday. If we win the BET, they need to at least get to the SEC final to steal it from us.

Everyone was looking for an excuse to take it from us already. I don't think there will be any plausible loss damaging enough for Florida to lose the last 1 seed.

 

[freescooter]

I can see anywhere from first round loss to FF. That’s what’s frustrating about this team

Like Hurley said……High ceiling. Low floor. He knows his team.

I think we’ll win in the first round but after that I have no idea.

 

[scdono]

Good analysis here regarding seating. If we win the Big East and Florida gets knocked out in the semi finals, we should be the last number 1 seed. We just don't want to throw up any donuts at Madison Square Garden. I've been to many UConn games there and have never really seem them not show up. Usually, when they lose, the other team showed up. House money is on UConn to kick ass and reestablish itself heading into the NCAA tournament. No more room for lackadaisical play like we saw on Saturday.

 

[djct1999]

Good analysis here regarding seating. If we win the Big East and Florida gets knocked out in the semi finals, we should be the last number 1 seed. We just don't want to throw up any donuts at Madison Square Garden. I've been to many UConn games there and have never really seem them not show up. Usually, when they lose, the other team showed up. House money is on UConn to kick ass and reestablish itself heading into the NCAA tournament. No more room for lackadaisical play like we saw on Saturday.

What if we lose by 50 to St. John’s in the final?

 

[NickDanger]

They do an early reveal now

No top seeds picked March 15

 

[auror]

 

[CardiacAndre7]

I understand analytical-wise, but no way in hell is Marquette not a bad loss lmao

 

[bendm]

there’s only 2 ways we can be the 2 seed in the East and both paths require us not being the strongest 2 seed:
1) Houston is the strongest 2 seed and goes South, UConn goes East, ISU goes Midwest, and a BIG team goes West. This means ISU must bump either MSU or Illinois off the 2 line, otherwise we go Midwest.
2) a BIG team is the strongest 2 seed meaning they can’t go East with Duke or Midwest with UM so they have to go South. UConn goes East, Houston goes Midwest, another BIG team goes West.

 

[NickDanger]

we have to root against Illinois, MSU, Purdue and Nebraska. If we want to be in the East then ISU needs to replace MSU or Illinois as a 2 seed. MSU being replaced by Purdue or Nebraska won’t make a difference unless they are declared the strongest 2 seed (5 overall) because only then may they not be paired with Duke as the 1 overall.

On the other hand, the higher Illinois is ranked, the better our victory over them looks

 

[RuffRuff]

On the other hand, the higher Illinois is ranked, the better our victory over them looks

Purdue as a 2? They've been awful.

MSU, Houston, UConn & Illinois for now. Maybe a Nebraska could fight for a two if they make a giant run in the BG10 tourney, but would likely be at the expense of one of the other two. It will be really hard to fall off the two line - and if we can't get the first win, honestly wouldn't deserve it.

 

[bendm]

On the other hand, the higher Illinois is ranked, the better our victory over them looks

That seems like a non sequitur, I’m not worried about losing a 2 seed I’m laying out how carefully we’d need to thread the needle to get the 2 in the east. It doesn’t appear likely.

If we win the BET we would prob be the strongest 2 and that alone would send us to the Midwest. Then it don’t even matter what the other results are.

 

[bendm]

Purdue as a 2? They've been awful

They’re not “awful” they’re currently a 3 and could be a 2 if they make a run to the BIG conference final. Not saying they will but it’s possible. I agree it would be at the expense of either MSU or Illinois but that alone wouldn’t help us get the 2 in the east.

 

[RuffRuff]

They’re not “awful” they’re currently a 3 and could be a 2 if they make a run to the BIG conference final. Not saying they will but it’s possible. I agree it would be at the expense of either MSU or Illinois but that alone wouldn’t help us.

No chance. 2-4 in last 6, lot's of home losses. 6-7 last 13, 9 losses. No a chance a 9 loss team, will be 10, gets a 2 seed. Put a hard line through them.

 

[bendm]

No chance. 2-4 in last 6, lot's of home losses. 6-7 last 13, 9 losses. No a chance a 9 loss team, will be 10, gets a 2 seed. Put a hard line through them.

They have 8 Ls will be 9, 1 more L than Illinois who is currently a 2, but I digress. Idk why you’re focusing on Purdue, everything I wrote holds true with Illinois MSU and Nebraska all in contention for 2 seeds.

 

[UConNick]

OK, newest projection done. Here's where I have things:

East: 1. (1) Duke - Greenville; 2. (7) Illinois - St. Louis; 3. Iowa St (9) - St. Louis; 4. (16) Kansas - Portland

Midwest: 1. (2) Michigan - Philadelphia; 2. (6) UConn - Philadelphia; 3. (10) Nebraska - Oklahoma City; 4. (15) Virginia - Tampa

West: 1. (3) Arizona - San Diego; 2. (8) Michigan St - Buffalo; 3. (11) Gonzaga - Portland; 4. (13) Alabama - Greenville

South: 1. (4) Florida - Tampa; 2. (5) Houston - Oklahoma City; 3. (12) Purdue - Buffalo; 4. (14) Texas Tech - San Diego

I've got our quadrant as 2. UConn vs. 15. ETSU and 7. Georgia vs 10. UCF. Both teams on paper we should be able to beat, but certainly not pushovers. Georgia in particular had a resume that surprised me (in how they got to my 7-line); very good minus their dearth of top wins.

I also concur with @bendm - if we're on the 2-line, and not the first one, then going to the Midwest is very likely, since the B1G teams also in the hunt along that 2-line will have to go anywhere but with Michigan. If we pass Houston and get back to no. 5 on the S-curve, it's possible the committee might send us to South for competitive purposes, and in that case Houston is almost assured of going to the Midwest instead. But the East is also back in play, depending on who else joins us and presumably Houston on the line.

Iowa State could make things interesting if they get to the 2-line. A good Big 12 tourney could do that, but they probably can't pass us on the S-curve. If the 2s are, in order, Houston, us, Iowa St, Illinois (or MSU, or Nebraska, or Purdue), then Houston gets South/UF, and we might sneak to the East/Duke, with Iowa St going to the Midwest/Mich and [insert B1G team] going to the West/AZ. If that played out, we'd probably get one of the worse 3-seeds, maybe a Purdue or an Alabama. Further, if Iowa State does push to the 2-line, and it's two Big 12 teams on the line instead of two B1G teams, the West becomes a possibility for us.

I have a tough time seeing us falling off the 2-line unless we get upset on Thursday and a team like Nebraska, Iowa State, or Purdue goes on an impressive run in their conference tournament. I'd say if we're a 2, about a 55% chance of the Midwest, a 30% chance of the South, 10% East, and 5% West.

A lot still to figure out. The 1 is probably done, but there's a lot to play for in terms of matchups and placement on the S-curve. This week is going to be freaking awesome, a great appetizer for the main event next week.

 

[ArizonaHsky]

I’d be fine in a region with Michigan. They’re struggling with Michigan State a home, a team we handled pretty thoroughly earlier this year. Plus Big 10 is always over rated.

Michigan St is a pretty good team and to judge an exhibition game, we had against them, before the season even started is wrong.