Purdue Scouting Report

[UConnSwag11]

I see a lot of matchup problems for Purdue because we're going to play Edey straight up when the big man is in there. Clingan has been great about not fouling for a while now, if the refs don't take him out of the game Purdue is going to have trouble keeping up with us.

Comes down to how we limit their guards and wings, and the refereeing

 

[upstater]

Well, they did win that game by 19 points - so 10 or 11 might do.

But Creighton is very unique in the way they run their offense, and although Purdue implements some of the same concepts, I don't think it requires nearly the same fluency guarding off the ball. What they run is probably more similar to what the Warriors run for Klay and Steph than it is Purdue.

UConn focused on shutting down Schierman and got burned by great shooting nights from the rest of the Creighton kids.

 

[Phoenixhusky]

Edey does not run the court well when I watched him.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I like our matchup. On offense, Edey is not going to enjoy chasing Clingan or Johnson down the court after Newton gets the outlet. Both Clingan and Johnson present tough decisions for Edey in the halfcourt because they are so quick in their attack of the dump off pass.

We should be able to shoot over their guards but we have to hit 3’s. Dribble penetration is less effective against Purdue’s defense.

Our height on the perimeter will give their shooters trouble, and we have 10 fouls for Edey. Quick rotations on defense are key.

Edey is good though, and we need a plan B in case he takes the game over.

 

[Karmacop]

On offense, I wonder if Cam is the key. If they try running us off the three point line, that will funnel them into the lane where Edey waits to block them. Out of all our guards, Cam has shown that he has a great mid-range game, where he can get his man on his back, but not try to score at the basket and instead pull out a bag of tricks at the free throw line. That might be needed more than usual in this game.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

On offense, I wonder if Cam is the key. If they try running us off the three point line, that will funnel them into the lane where Edey waits to block them. Out of all our guards, Cam has shown that he has a great mid-range game, where he can get his man on his back, but not try to score at the basket and instead pull out a bag of tricks at the free throw line. That might be needed more than usual in this game.

Castle also had a very nice finishing package in the lane and has the size and athleticism of o get a decent look. Will be interesting to see how worried Purdue is about the big man on drives into the paint and how much Edey cheats over to DC/SJ.

 

[GiladKatzDeli]

1.) You’re not going to block a hook shot from a 7’4” player (so don’t try to and potentially get into foul trouble).
2.) Win the rebounding battle
3.) Lock down everybody other than Edey
4.) Just try to slow Edey, he’ll score, just make him earn it.
5.) We can’t lose if we score points, if we score 75+ I like our chances.

 

[Dogdeacon]

They are shockingly bad at passing to Edey when he’s not being fronted and is being guarded by a 6’8 guy. But I doubt we see much fronting. Edey is just too big and would seal off Clingan too far from the basket imo.

Feel like Samson has to front Edey as he’s giving up 60lbs+. When they throw over SJ The weak side help has to get there before the ball is caught or it’s good night.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Purdue has shortened its tourney rotation to 7 players with Gillis (PF) and Heide (SF) the only guys getting minutes off the bench and I don’t think Heide will play at all tomorrow unless they get into foul trouble.

Purdue plays 3 guards (Braden, Jones, and Loyer). They are all great shooters and passers but they are short and slight (Smith and Jones are only 6 foot). Our 3 guards are all bigger and stronger so switch everything on the perimeter. No open 3s.

Kaufman-Ren (6’9 230) is bigger and stronger than Karaban but isn’t much of a scoring threat and only averages 15mpg. Gillis is a stretch PF that plays starters minutes off the bench (20mpg) but at 6’6 he’s a more favorable matchup for Karaban.

We can’t double Edey. Clingan needs to play him straight up without fouling. I don’t care if Edey scores 25 because he will have to work harder than he’s ever had to to get those points against Clingan. It’s finding open 3 pt shooters out of a double team that will kill is.

The most important stat of the night will be Clingans minutes. If he hits 30 minutes by staying out of foul trouble we win.

Realistically Clingan isn’t playing 30, we need 23-28 quality minutes. DC’s weakness if fouling & Eden’s strength is drawing fouls. Clingan is going to have to deal with that AND UConn’s plan B is absolutely vital. Unfortunately it is Something near even money that Huskies have to play half the game without Clingan.

 

[Lefty2one]

The biggest area of interest to me is Purdue's defense and how effective their drop coverage will be. We want to make Edey move and tire him out and draw fouls. He's less agile than Kalkbrenner and plays an even more exaggerated drop coverage than most bigs. Spencer and Steph love the floaters that should be open all night but you don't want to fall in love with that shot. Curious if our guards will be able to draw Edey and find Clingan/Samson. Edey literally stands at the rim for possessions at a time. Our interior passing/extra passing is a thing of beauty sometimes. Elsewhere, our guards have a size and athleticism advantage which generally means great things for us. Teams with similar athleticism to our backcourt can give us problems but we aren't dealing with that tonight. The fact that Purdue's perimeter players are both smaller AND less athletic is a great sign for us.

The other is how we guard Edey when Samson is in there. Clingan will go for 30-32 minutes tonight so we'll only need small bursts from Samson but I will be surprised if we try to play him straight up. Purdue can go on a quick run without Clingan, like many other opponents have in recent games. I was surprised at how effective Middlebrooks was in stretches at pushing out Edey's catch. Samson isn't nearly that strong so maybe we hedge/dig similar to NC State but I'd rather give up Edey twos than let their shooters hit threes. Let Samson get five fouls in 8-9 minutes of burn and hope Edey makes 6/10 FT.

Barring Clingan foul trouble, I expect us to win comfortably. The refs have let teams play all tournament except against Purdue. The generous calls Edey gets are a thing that can happen to us. I cannot recall a behemoth so protected by the refs; typically it's the opposite.

 

[Lefty2one]

Realistically Clingan isn’t playing 30, we need 23-28 quality minutes. DC’s weakness if fouling & Eden’s strength is drawing fouls.

It's been 14 games since Clingan picked up more than 3 fouls. He often got in foul trouble coming down on much smaller opponents, something that won't happen vs Edey. It's a small sample size but vs other bigs he didn't foul a ton. Kansas (Dickenson) he had two, once against Kalkbrenner he had two and in the other game he had three. Obviously these guys don't draw fouls at the rate Edey does, but it's a positive sign for us.

He played 29 minutes against Bama, 31 vs Marquette in the BET championship. I expect him to go 30+ minutes.

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

On offense, I wonder if Cam is the key. If they try running us off the three point line, that will funnel them into the lane where Edey waits to block them. Out of all our guards, Cam has shown that he has a great mid-range game, where he can get his man on his back, but not try to score at the basket and instead pull out a bag of tricks at the free throw line. That might be needed more than usual in this game.

Bingo, both he and Steph have to be effective with the mid-range game. It opens up the outside and it can draw Edey in which is a nightmare for them because they haven't faced a passing team like this one. He steps up, someone cuts in and now we have high probability action by the rim

Alex and Tristan from the outside
Steph and Cam midrange
Donovan by the basket

If they hitting from each level, I don't know how Purdue can stop it

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

It's been 14 games since Clingan picked up more than 3 fouls. He often got in foul trouble coming down on much smaller opponents, something that won't happen vs Edey. It's a small sample size but vs other bigs he didn't foul a ton. Kansas (Dickenson) he had two, once against Kalkbrenner he had two and in the other game he had three. Obviously these guys don't draw fouls at the rate Edey does, but it's a positive sign for us.

He played 29 minutes against Bama, 31 vs Marquette in the BET championship. I expect him to go 30+ minutes.

One of those fouls in the road game vs Creighton was a bull shit ball screen at the 3 point line early in the game. Huge call, because if you remember we tipped off and started whooping that ass

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's interesting. I read all of these from @Hey Adrien! but not this one. Don't care. Doesn't matter. There's nothing analytical about this game for me now. It's just "let's go! bring it on!". It's all jimmies and joes not Xs and Os. Make the plays. Get those clutch rebounds. Hit FTs. Get stops.

My sense it goes two ways. It comes down to the wire in an epic battle, one of the greatest finals of all time or we just curb stomp them.

 

[caw]

No soft takes. Make Edey actually defend, not just hold his hands up as the team shoots a runner or a fading midrange shot. Too many players go in and get scared of the looming shadow. Like players do against Clingan. Difference is Clingan will go after a block. Edey really doesn’t as much.

 

[champs99and04]

That game was also in an extremely tough road environment which makes a big difference.

Yeah, and it came at a brutal point on the schedule, just three days after a top five showdown with Marquette that got a ton of hype. Plus, the Storrs to Omaha trip is a tough one mid-week when you have classes in session.

Not trying to take anything away from Creighton or make it sound like UConn is unbeatable, but conference road losses happen and can't necessarily be replicated in a tournament setting.

I tend extend the same benefit of the doubt to Purdue, who got clocked by Nebraska in a similar situation a few days after beating top ten Illinois (not to mention, it seemed like they were just biding their time for most of the last month of the season - they didn't have as many new pieces to integrate as UConn, which makes boredom a more acceptable excuse in my mind).

Both are heavyweights any way you look at it. The vibe does feel a little bit like Duke-UConn in '99 or Baylor-Gonzaga in '21 in that you have one juggernaut matched up with a normal great team. Purdue might only win 3 or 4 out of 10, but most of the teams UConn's played recently could probably only beat them 1 or 2 times out of 10. It's a step up for both parties.

 

[Scrutineer]

Lots of good thoughts in these posts but, when all is said and done, how we defend the three and how we shoot the three may well be the factors that decide the game.

The problem is right now we're on a trend that has produced alternating good and bad 3 point shooting % in the tournament:
Stetson-----------37.5
Northwestern----13.6
San Diego St-----38.5
Illinois------------17.6
Alabama---------40.0
Purdue-----------????

The good news is this bad streak may be nullified by the reverse karma we may have gained when Sears prevented Andrew Hurley from dribbling out the final second on Saturday.

Dan Hurley has made it part of his superstitions to have Andrew finish the game so maybe Sears' dumb move will reverse the shooting trend and deliver the win............

Whatever it takes.

 

[gsmooth]

Realistically Clingan isn’t playing 30, we need 23-28 quality minutes. DC’s weakness if fouling & Eden’s strength is drawing fouls. Clingan is going to have to deal with that AND UConn’s plan B is absolutely vital. Unfortunately it is Something near even money that Huskies have to play half the game without Clingan.

That's what we are all concerned about is Clingan foul trouble. I have said it before and I will say it again, he needs to defend like Kalkbrenner. Don't try to block everything. Just have the arms raised straight up, not leaning forward. UConn's 3 pt shooting has to be on tonight. The man being defended by Edey needs to set off ball screens, utilize dribble hand offs, and set picks on the pick and roll where the Husky guards can shoot because Edey is just going to camp out in the paint.

This won't be an easy game and it's not supposed to be since it's a title game. Edey and his ability to draw fouls, even the BS calls, scares the hell out of me, but UConn can take this.

 

[Candyman]

They're basically a better version of Creighton defensively in that they rarely foul and invite mid-range shots. Pretty much your standard analytics approach but to an extreme. Edey typically accomplishes more on that end by doing less - he errs much more on the side of underhelping than overhelping, which leads to better shot quality for opponents but limits second chances. One of things this approach does is fool the opponent into thinking it is getting consistently great looks when in reality it's a mirage.

Offensively is where I think they often get mischaracterized. Stopping them isn't as simple as "letting Edey get his" because much like UConn, they run great stuff and leverage his screening & rolling ability into generating great looks even when he doesn't touch the ball. Think Kalkbrenner in terms of the subtle real estate he opens for their shooters and drivers with his constant flipping and sealing, except four inches taller and 50 pounds heavier. Purdue and UConn have two of the best offenses in CBB in large part because screening is really important and giant people make great screeners.

My gut says UConn has a slight edge in this one, but I could easily change my mind by game time because I think both teams are that good. The 6.5 UConn is giving strikes me as an overcorrection in the market, but you could also easily argue based on other trends - like Clingan playing more minutes - that the spread should be closer to 8 or 9. It's one of those match-ups where nothing would really surprise me.

This breakdown on their D is spot on and going against Kalk and Edey was what I wanted to avoid this tourney but it is what it is. They will try to make us make those runners or foul line jumpers. I don’t see Castle or Newton getting much at the rim. We have to run our offense get them out of position and hit open shots.

Our D is fine. Play him with DC straight up and hopefully no foul trouble. Let’s try to move him around a lot.

 

[Tenspro2002]

That's what we are all concerned about is Clingan foul trouble. I have said it before and I will say it again, he needs to defend like Kalkbrenner. Don't try to block everything. Just have the arms raised straight up, not leaning forward. UConn's 3 pt shooting has to be on tonight. The man being defended by Edey needs to set off ball screens, utilize dribble hand offs, and set picks on the pick and roll where the Husky guards can shoot because Edey is just going to camp out in the paint.

This won't be an easy game and it's not supposed to be since it's a title game. Edey and his ability to draw fouls, even the BS calls, scares the hell out of me, but UConn can take this.

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

Dribble, drive, and cut. Make mid range jumpers to draw out the big man. We have height advantages with Newton and Castle (assuming Spencer and Loyer are a match up). AK keeps their 4 out of the paint, there will be space to take advantage of.

We have the horses to run this race.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

Murray’s offense is pretty good at forcing centers into 1-on-1 defense against guards in space. The problem is that a 7’4 player can challenge floaters while still giving ground. It is the next pass to the weak side that creates the problem for Edey.

 

[gsmooth]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

They have to fall tonight. If not then Castle and Spencer have to utilize the pick and roll game in the mid range. In fact, I might have it backwards. Utilizing that mid range at first, but not falling in love with it, might draw Edey to step forward a little, and then UConn can get some baskets at the rim. Also, this could open the 3 point shooting as well.

 

[auror]

 

[Dogdeacon]

That's what we are all concerned about is Clingan foul trouble. I have said it before and I will say it again, he needs to defend like Kalkbrenner. Don't try to block everything. Just have the arms raised straight up, not leaning forward. UConn's 3 pt shooting has to be on tonight. The man being defended by Edey needs to set off ball screens, utilize dribble hand offs, and set picks on the pick and roll where the Husky guards can shoot because Edey is just going to camp out in the paint.

This won't be an easy game and it's not supposed to be since it's a title game. Edey and his ability to draw fouls, even the BS calls, scares the hell out of me, but UConn can take this.

Yep, the coaches are certainly going over this again and again with Clingan, Edey is the more experienced player and will try to bait CD into fouls. I do think the recent trend of Clingan not fouling is excellent (perfect timing) and encouraging!
As the coaches stress this to DC, they also are, as many have pointed out, using Clingan to run the floor and tire Edey out. This will tire Clingan out too though and distributing his minutes evenly so that DC doesn't draw the silly mental or physical fatigue fouls is key. Part of why again I think mid-20's minutes for Clingan is more likely. To this point in the men's tourney, the #1 individual player storyline is Edey being foul proof - draws them and doesn't commit them (or more accurately rarely gets called when he commits em).

One thing making me feel better is often when you have these huge matchups at different times in careers the player with the long-term upside is the one that prevails.

 

[TheChamps990411]

I don't completely agree (though I am 75% there with you).

Good enough for me lol!

 

[dogpause]

At some point we may go to the Elton Brand strategy -- a big-to-big double team. However, it won't be in the first half. In the first half the plan will be simply to enter halftime with neither Clngan or Johnson in foul trouble. Then, in the second half, we start jumping Edey with a double team.

 

[auror]

At some point we may go to the Elton Brand strategy -- a big-to-big double team. However, it won't be in the first half. In the first half the plan will be simply to enter halftime with neither Clngan or Johnson in foul trouble. Then, in the second half, we start jumping Edey with a double team.

Problem is that Edey can pass over Karaban with ease even if he's jumping. We'd probably have to play 2 bigs in that case, and if that is what we're resorting to, we're in serious trouble.

 

[Dove]

With a bench that plays only 27.5% of their minutes, this team can be worn out by the 'skies. And it will be great to see Edey plod all night.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I changed my mind. Purdue’s guards are slow. Take them off the bounce then dump off when Edey comes over.