Purdue Scouting Report

[Lefty2one]

Realistically Clingan isn’t playing 30, we need 23-28 quality minutes. DC’s weakness if fouling & Eden’s strength is drawing fouls.

It's been 14 games since Clingan picked up more than 3 fouls. He often got in foul trouble coming down on much smaller opponents, something that won't happen vs Edey. It's a small sample size but vs other bigs he didn't foul a ton. Kansas (Dickenson) he had two, once against Kalkbrenner he had two and in the other game he had three. Obviously these guys don't draw fouls at the rate Edey does, but it's a positive sign for us.

He played 29 minutes against Bama, 31 vs Marquette in the BET championship. I expect him to go 30+ minutes.

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

On offense, I wonder if Cam is the key. If they try running us off the three point line, that will funnel them into the lane where Edey waits to block them. Out of all our guards, Cam has shown that he has a great mid-range game, where he can get his man on his back, but not try to score at the basket and instead pull out a bag of tricks at the free throw line. That might be needed more than usual in this game.

Bingo, both he and Steph have to be effective with the mid-range game. It opens up the outside and it can draw Edey in which is a nightmare for them because they haven't faced a passing team like this one. He steps up, someone cuts in and now we have high probability action by the rim

Alex and Tristan from the outside
Steph and Cam midrange
Donovan by the basket

If they hitting from each level, I don't know how Purdue can stop it

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

It's been 14 games since Clingan picked up more than 3 fouls. He often got in foul trouble coming down on much smaller opponents, something that won't happen vs Edey. It's a small sample size but vs other bigs he didn't foul a ton. Kansas (Dickenson) he had two, once against Kalkbrenner he had two and in the other game he had three. Obviously these guys don't draw fouls at the rate Edey does, but it's a positive sign for us.

He played 29 minutes against Bama, 31 vs Marquette in the BET championship. I expect him to go 30+ minutes.

One of those fouls in the road game vs Creighton was a bull ball screen at the 3 point line early in the game. Huge call, because if you remember we tipped off and started whooping that ass

 

[HuskyHawk]

It's interesting. I read all of these from @Hey Adrien! but not this one. Don't care. Doesn't matter. There's nothing analytical about this game for me now. It's just "let's go! bring it on!". It's all jimmies and joes not Xs and Os. Make the plays. Get those clutch rebounds. Hit FTs. Get stops.

My sense it goes two ways. It comes down to the wire in an epic battle, one of the greatest finals of all time or we just curb stomp them.

 

[caw]

No soft takes. Make Edey actually defend, not just hold his hands up as the team shoots a runner or a fading midrange shot. Too many players go in and get scared of the looming shadow. Like players do against Clingan. Difference is Clingan will go after a block. Edey really doesn’t as much.

 

[champs99and04]

That game was also in an extremely tough road environment which makes a big difference.

Yeah, and it came at a brutal point on the schedule, just three days after a top five showdown with Marquette that got a ton of hype. Plus, the Storrs to Omaha trip is a tough one mid-week when you have classes in session.

Not trying to take anything away from Creighton or make it sound like UConn is unbeatable, but conference road losses happen and can't necessarily be replicated in a tournament setting.

I tend extend the same benefit of the doubt to Purdue, who got clocked by Nebraska in a similar situation a few days after beating top ten Illinois (not to mention, it seemed like they were just biding their time for most of the last month of the season - they didn't have as many new pieces to integrate as UConn, which makes boredom a more acceptable excuse in my mind).

Both are heavyweights any way you look at it. The vibe does feel a little bit like Duke-UConn in '99 or Baylor-Gonzaga in '21 in that you have one juggernaut matched up with a normal great team. Purdue might only win 3 or 4 out of 10, but most of the teams UConn's played recently could probably only beat them 1 or 2 times out of 10. It's a step up for both parties.

 

[Scrutineer]

Lots of good thoughts in these posts but, when all is said and done, how we defend the three and how we shoot the three may well be the factors that decide the game.

The problem is right now we're on a trend that has produced alternating good and bad 3 point shooting % in the tournament:
Stetson-----------37.5
Northwestern----13.6
San Diego St-----38.5
Illinois------------17.6
Alabama---------40.0
Purdue-----------????

The good news is this bad streak may be nullified by the reverse karma we may have gained when Sears prevented Andrew Hurley from dribbling out the final second on Saturday.

DH has made it part of his superstitions to have Andrew finish the game so maybe Sears' dumb move will reverse the shooting trend and deliver the win............

Whatever it takes.

 

[gsmooth]

Realistically Clingan isn’t playing 30, we need 23-28 quality minutes. DC’s weakness if fouling & Eden’s strength is drawing fouls. Clingan is going to have to deal with that AND UConn’s plan B is absolutely vital. Unfortunately it is Something near even money that Huskies have to play half the game without Clingan.

That's what we are all concerned about is Clingan foul trouble. I have said it before and I will say it again, he needs to defend like Kalkbrenner. Don't try to block everything. Just have the arms raised straight up, not leaning forward. UConn's 3 pt shooting has to be on tonight. The man being defended by Edey needs to set off ball screens, utilize dribble hand offs, and set picks on the pick and roll where the Husky guards can shoot because Edey is just going to camp out in the paint.

This won't be an easy game and it's not supposed to be since it's a title game. Edey and his ability to draw fouls, even the BS calls, scares the hell out of me, but UConn can take this.

 

[Candyman]

They're basically a better version of Creighton defensively in that they rarely foul and invite mid-range shots. Pretty much your standard analytics approach but to an extreme. Edey typically accomplishes more on that end by doing less - he errs much more on the side of underhelping than overhelping, which leads to better shot quality for opponents but limits second chances. One of things this approach does is fool the opponent into thinking it is getting consistently great looks when in reality it's a mirage.

Offensively is where I think they often get mischaracterized. Stopping them isn't as simple as "letting Edey get his" because much like UConn, they run great stuff and leverage his screening & rolling ability into generating great looks even when he doesn't touch the ball. Think Kalkbrenner in terms of the subtle real estate he opens for their shooters and drivers with his constant flipping and sealing, except four inches taller and 50 pounds heavier. Purdue and UConn have two of the best offenses in CBB in large part because screening is really important and giant people make great screeners.

My gut says UConn has a slight edge in this one, but I could easily change my mind by game time because I think both teams are that good. The 6.5 UConn is giving strikes me as an overcorrection in the market, but you could also easily argue based on other trends - like Clingan playing more minutes - that the spread should be closer to 8 or 9. It's one of those match-ups where nothing would really surprise me.

This breakdown on their D is spot on and going against Kalk and Edey was what I wanted to avoid this tourney but it is what it is. They will try to make us make those runners or foul line jumpers. I don’t see Castle or Newton getting much at the rim. We have to run our offense get them out of position and hit open shots.

Our D is fine. Play him with DC straight up and hopefully no foul trouble. Let’s try to move him around a lot.

 

[Tenspro2002]

That's what we are all concerned about is Clingan foul trouble. I have said it before and I will say it again, he needs to defend like Kalkbrenner. Don't try to block everything. Just have the arms raised straight up, not leaning forward. UConn's 3 pt shooting has to be on tonight. The man being defended by Edey needs to set off ball screens, utilize dribble hand offs, and set picks on the pick and roll where the Husky guards can shoot because Edey is just going to camp out in the paint.

This won't be an easy game and it's not supposed to be since it's a title game. Edey and his ability to draw fouls, even the BS calls, scares the hell out of me, but UConn can take this.

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

 

[DaMuttzNutt]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

Dribble, drive, and cut. Make mid range jumpers to draw out the big man. We have height advantages with Newton and Castle (assuming Spencer and Loyer are a match up). AK keeps their 4 out of the paint, there will be space to take advantage of.

We have the horses to run this race.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

Murray’s offense is pretty good at forcing centers into 1-on-1 defense against guards in space. The problem is that a 7’4 player can challenge floaters while still giving ground. It is the next pass to the weak side that creates the problem for Edey.

 

[gsmooth]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

They have to fall tonight. If not then Castle and Spencer have to utilize the pick and roll game in the mid range. In fact, I might have it backwards. Utilizing that mid range at first, but not falling in love with it, might draw Edey to step forward a little, and then UConn can get some baskets at the rim. Also, this could open the 3 point shooting as well.

 

[auror]

 

[Dogdeacon]

That's what we are all concerned about is Clingan foul trouble. I have said it before and I will say it again, he needs to defend like Kalkbrenner. Don't try to block everything. Just have the arms raised straight up, not leaning forward. UConn's 3 pt shooting has to be on tonight. The man being defended by Edey needs to set off ball screens, utilize dribble hand offs, and set picks on the pick and roll where the Husky guards can shoot because Edey is just going to camp out in the paint.

This won't be an easy game and it's not supposed to be since it's a title game. Edey and his ability to draw fouls, even the BS calls, scares the hell out of me, but UConn can take this.

Yep, the coaches are certainly going over this again and again with Clingan, Edey is the more experienced player and will try to bait CD into fouls. I do think the recent trend of Clingan not fouling is excellent (perfect timing) and encouraging!
As the coaches stress this to DC, they also are, as many have pointed out, using Clingan to run the floor and tire Edey out. This will tire Clingan out too though and distributing his minutes evenly so that DC doesn't draw the silly mental or physical fatigue fouls is key. Part of why again I think mid-20's minutes for Clingan is more likely. To this point in the men's tourney, the #1 individual player storyline is Edey being foul proof - draws them and doesn't commit them (or more accurately rarely gets called when he commits em).

One thing making me feel better is often when you have these huge matchups at different times in careers the player with the long-term upside is the one that prevails.

 

[TheChamps990411]

I don't completely agree (though I am 75% there with you).

Good enough for me lol!

 

[dogpause]

At some point we may go to the Elton Brand strategy -- a big-to-big double team. However, it won't be in the first half. In the first half the plan will be simply to enter halftime with neither Clngan or Johnson in foul trouble. Then, in the second half, we start jumping Edey with a double team.

 

[auror]

At some point we may go to the Elton Brand strategy -- a big-to-big double team. However, it won't be in the first half. In the first half the plan will be simply to enter halftime with neither Clngan or Johnson in foul trouble. Then, in the second half, we start jumping Edey with a double team.

Problem is that Edey can pass over Karaban with ease even if he's jumping. We'd probably have to play 2 bigs in that case, and if that is what we're resorting to, we're in serious trouble.

 

[Dove]

With a bench that plays only 27.5% of their minutes, this team can be worn out by the 'skies. And it will be great to see Edey plod all night.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I changed my mind. Purdue’s guards are slow. Take them off the bounce then dump off when Edey comes over.

 

[tzznandrew]

Torvik ratings since March 1st.

 

[James]

Problem is that Edey can pass over Karaban with ease even if he's jumping. We'd probably have to play 2 bigs in that case, and if that is what we're resorting to, we're in serious trouble.

Yeah I dont see Hurley changing his rotations a bit, but I feel like hard doubles are part of his philosophy when there is a serious post threat. Ofcourse they have to be strategic and our rotations will have to be hellish... But I think Edey will be swarmed at times. I honestly have no clue what Hurley has planned but I know the staff is beyond prepared so I'll be ok with whatever strategy they utilize

 

[Lefty2one]

Torvik ratings since March 1st. View attachment 99201

BARTHAG made me lol. I love these uber-analytic ranking systems.

 

[HuskyHawk]

In terms of Plan B, I'm less concerned about the obvious one (Clingan foul trouble) and more concerned about the offensive end -- what do we do when they just park Edey in the lane and don't bother chasing our screeners, how do we score if outside shots aren't falling?

That is what they will do. Edey will not leave the paint. I don't think that has anything to do with chasing shooters and being screened. That happens away from the paint.

1. We will run our offense to free up shooters outside. Yes they need to make those shots.
2. Edey will Challenge shooters in the paint area, whether Donovan or others. We will need to be agressive cutting behind him passing on the interior. If he challenges Donovan on one side, the pass goes behind him to AK or Castle.
3. Run on misses. Run, run, run. Edey doesn't even jog, he walks up the court on both ends. Attack the basket before he gets anywhere near it.

Oddly, I think Bama's running and shooting game were tailor made to beat Purdue. We will need to emulate that to some extent. Clingan's role is on D tonight. Johnson could be interesting and I'd use him to draw fouls on Edey.

 

[his dudeness]

Hope we get 30 good minutes of Clingan playing 1v1 and 10 minutes of Samson/help from Diarra and Spencer's quick hands. Samson Johnson has given us really good minutes recently, he's a crazy efficient weapon in both transition and the half court.