Pros, Cons, Conclusions vs. Oklahoma State

[pj]

I think this is the 3rd time I've posted this since last night. They shot 24-33 last night which is 72.7%. Right around their season average of 73.6% which puts them at 81st in the country out of 352 teams.

Serious question and I need an answer to this. What would you suggest is an acceptable percentage for the team to shoot this season? If you're expecting something like 80%, which would mean they hit 2-3 more free throws last night, then that's unrealistic since 80% would put them in the top 10 teams in college basketball.

If they shoot 73% from the line one game and lose then I would point to a lot of other things they did wrong to lose a game rather than missing a couple free throws.

If you want to win a national championship, you need to be better than 81st in many categories.

The 2013-14 team shot 78% on free throws. The 2010-11 team shot 76.3%.

The difference between 78% and 73.6% is about one point per game on average. On KenPom, an extra point per game would move UConn up from #4 to #3. The improvement would rarely be decisive in any one game, but it would bring the team closer to championship caliber.

 

[HooperScooper]

If you want to win a national championship, you need to be better than 81st in many categories.

Can't disagree with that. But the Huskies are. Looking at advanced metrics using Kenpom.com the team overall is #4. #9 in offense and #9 in defense. The only team that is top 10 in both so I guess they're doing a lot extremely well.

Free throws might not be their strength but it's not terrible either. No teams do everything well but I just don't think their free throw shooting is a fatal flaw. And good news. They're up to #79 in free throw percentage so they're better than 81st now there too.

 

[HooperScooper]

The difference between 78% and 73.6% is about one point per game on average. On KenPom, an extra point per game would move UConn up from #4 to #3. The improvement would rarely be decisive in any one game, but it would bring the team closer to championship caliber.

Not sure I understand this point. You think the difference between #3 and #4 on Kenpom would bring them closer to championship caliber? Oy vey.

 

[nashusky109]

Pink hat guy always kept the party going. Miss him a lot this year for the students sake.

 

[polycom]

You know that you have a good team when, the biggest fans of the team are complaining from the comfort of their couches what 18 year olds are doing during a basketball game. No talk about the game but lots of talk about what the fans were doing… we will have a great season.

 

[pj]

Not sure I understand this point. You think the difference between #3 and #4 on Kenpom would bring them closer to championship caliber? Oy vey.

Just quantifying how much free throw percentage matters. There's an element of luck in the tourney of course, but yes, the 3rd best team has a better chance than the 4th best team.

To quantify that, we can look at historical data -- the #1 seeds win the NCAA tourney 16% of the team and the #2 seeds 3.5% of the time (History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament). The difference between 3rd best and 4th best teams (both 1 seeds) is probably about 1/4 the difference between a 1 and 2 seed, so the 4th best team will have a chance to win the championship about 3% lower than the 3rd best team.

So if you take KenPom numbers seriously, if UConn could increase their free throw shooting percentage from 73.6% to 78% while keeping everything else the same, it would increase their chance of winning the national championship this year from something like 12% to 15% or 10% to 13%. Which strikes me as a meaningful change, similar to a betting odds change from 8:1 to 7:1.

 

[pj]

Can't disagree with that. But the Huskies are. Looking at advanced metrics using Kenpom.com the team overall is #4. #9 in offense and #9 in defense. The only team that is top 10 in both so I guess they're doing a lot extremely well.

Free throws might not be their strength but it's not terrible either. No teams do everything well but I just don't think their free throw shooting is a fatal flaw. And good news. They're up to #79 in free throw percentage so they're better than 81st now there too.

Agreed.

I am taking a middle ground between the posters complaining about free throw shooting and your point that UConn's free throw shooting is above average and that that may be good enough. Yes, the team can win a national championship shooting 73% on free throws. But their odds become better if they shoot FTs better.

I don't have time for it at the moment, but it would be interesting to look at the last 20 national champions and see how many of them shot free throws at 73.6% or lower.

 

[REB1094]

Agreed.

I am taking a middle ground between the posters complaining about free throw shooting and your point that UConn's free throw shooting is above average and that that may be good enough. Yes, the team can win a national championship shooting 73% on free throws. But their odds become better if they shoot FTs better.

I don't have time for it at the moment, but it would be interesting to look at the last 20 national champions and see how many of them shot free throws at 73.6% or lower.

Don’t have to go too far. 2022 Kansas shot 71.7% on free throws on the season according to sports reference

R64 vs TX Southern: 4-9 (44.4%)
R32 vs Creighton: 19-20 (95%) !!!
Sweet 16 vs Providence: 20-28 (71.4%)
Elite 8 vs. Miami: 13-26 (50%)
Final 4 vs. Villanova: 10-13 (76.9%)
Championship vs. UNC: 8-14 (57.1%)

2021 Baylor: 70.8%
2019 UVA: 74.4%
2018 Villanova: 77.9%
2017 UNC: 70.1%

 

[navery12]

If you want to win a national championship, you need to be better than 81st in many categories.

The 2013-14 team shot 78% on free throws. The 2010-11 team shot 76.3%.

The difference between 78% and 73.6% is about one point per game on average. On KenPom, an extra point per game would move UConn up from #4 to #3. The improvement would rarely be decisive in any one game, but it would bring the team closer to championship caliber.

This math makes sense if improving from 73% to 78% improved our seed line from 4 to 3. Moving from 4 to 3 on KenPom has absolutely 0 tangible effect on UConn winning a national championship this season. This is Kansas's KenPom page from last year, sure looks like you don't actually have to be better than 81st in most categories

 

[dennismenace]

I was surprised that the Oklahoma State center (Cisse) got two quick fouls. Upperclassman. If either were bad calls that would be huge. I don't have a replay tape so if anyone could care to comment please do. I mention this because it has frequently happened to Sanogo in the past and changes the complexion of the whole game. Outside of that I thought OS was hyper aggressive (which is good) but often results in more fouls. I got the impression that they were trying to intimidate us. We are likely to see this again so we had better get DC schooled up and ready for action. Overall, I admired the way OS played. Lot of heart and athleticism on that team.

 

[bigknight3]

Although I couldn't make last night's game (casual fan, i know, i know), in general, EVERYONE in the whole darn arena needs to get more involved, more rowdy, and STAND UP AND BE LOUD MUCH MUCH MORE OFTEN.

It's just so awkward & lame that everyone in the non-student sections are just itching for UConn to score ASAP at the start of the game and 2nd half so they can sit their butts back down in the seats & be quiet.

There's always palpable irritation from way too many people if--heaven forbid--you decide to stand up and be rowdy for more than a couple of good plays a game...the "siT dOwN wE CanT sEE tHe GaMe!!!" vibe needs to go away.

I'm not saying the arena needs to be like last year's XL Villanova game 24/7 for every game, but as a whole, we need to be better. Everywhere in the arena...not just the student section.

This a special team. Let's reward them with special crowds!

/endrant

Never gonna happen. Even in good years the only stand up the whole game sections are in the student section. And they are the ones who need to lead the stand up Gampel/Hartford chants to get the arena more rowdy. Otherwise they'll stay seated.

 

[REB1094]

I was surprised that the Oklahoma State center (Cisse) got two quick fouls. Upperclassman. If either were bad calls that would be huge. I don't have a replay tape so if anyone could care to comment please do. I mention this because it has frequently happened to Sanogo in the past and changes the complexion of the whole game. Outside of that I thought OS was hyper aggressive (which is good) but often results in more fouls. I got the impression that they were trying to intimidate us. We are likely to see this again so we had better get DC schooled up and ready for action. Overall, I admired the way OS played. Lot of heart and athleticism on that team.

I don’t remember the first foul but the second was a major mental gap by Sisse. Sanogo got a steal and was taking it coast to coast (lol). Sisse pretty much took the foul and wrapped him up under the basket

 

[Vancat]

Was in the same section and I agree. The big run at the end of the first half was very loud. 2nd half was quieter but at no point did I think it was dead like xl

The guy under the XL stairwell is now busy dying on his hill

 

[pj]

This math makes sense if improving from 73% to 78% improved our seed line from 4 to 3. Moving from 4 to 3 on KenPom has absolutely 0 tangible effect on UConn winning a national championship this season. This is Kansas's KenPom page from last year, sure looks like you don't actually have to be better than 81st in most categories

View attachment 81481

Going by that, Kansas was better than 81st in 6 of 12 miscellaneous components and 3 of 8 of the Four Factors, or let's say 9 of 20 (45%) of statistical categories. Roughly half. Seems like "many" is correct. I didn't say "most."

 

[navery12]

Going by that, Kansas was better than 81st in 6 of 12 miscellaneous components and 3 of 8 of the Four Factors, or let's say 9 of 20 (45%) of statistical categories. Roughly half. Seems like "many" is correct. I didn't say "most."

And UConn is better than 81st in 12 of the 20, yet you continue to spin some weird narrative about their FT shooting

 

[pj]

And UConn is better than 81st in 12 of the 20, yet you continue to spin some weird narrative about their FT shooting

What narrative? All I've said is that 78% FT shooting helps a team more than 73.6% FT shooting, and I've estimated how much it helps -- in victory margin, 1 point per game; in chance of winning the NCAA championship for UConn this year, an extra 3% chance. How is that weird?

 

[navery12]

What narrative? All I've said is that 78% FT shooting helps a team more than 73.6% FT shooting, and I've estimated how much it helps -- in victory margin, 1 point per game; in chance of winning the NCAA championship for UConn this year, an extra 3% chance. How is that weird?

Because to put it kindly, that math to get a 3% extra chance of winning a championship with better FT shooting is a bunch of nonsense

 

[HooperScooper]

What narrative? All I've said is that 78% FT shooting helps a team more than 73.6% FT shooting, and I've estimated how much it helps -- in victory margin, 1 point per game; in chance of winning the NCAA championship for UConn this year, an extra 3% chance. How is that weird?

O.K. since I'm a glutton for punishment let's look at this from another angle.

Yes, scoring more points is better. No argument there. But couldn't there be like 20 different ways for them to score 1 more point if you think it raises their probability to win the championship?

The team's overall field goal percentage is 47.53%, which is 71st in the country. If they raised that about .5% that would give them about an extra point. Isn't 71st in the country about the same as 78th in the country (their free throw percentage rank)? If they were shooting 48.03% from the field that would put that them at about 59th in the country. Wouldn't it be easier to get a 1/2 a basket a game more than raise their free throw percentage by 5%?

What about 3 point shooting? They're hitting 36.84% from 3 which is 73rd in the country. Again, about the same rank as their free throw shooting. If they could raise that a little there's the same 1 point extra a game.

What if they turned the ball over less? That would give them more shots and even if they kept the same overall shooting percentage would easily give them that extra point. They're turning the ball over 13 times a game, good for 165th in the country. If they turned the ball over 12 times a game instead then there's that same point. 12 turnovers a game would put them at about 84th in the country, again about the same ranking as their free throws. Seems they should work on turning the ball over less since that's a bigger problem than their free throw shooting.

There are a million things they could do better if they want to score 1 more point. Probably things that are easier to achieve than 5% more free throws.

My point again is that their free throw shooting is not bad enough to be as scrutinized as you are doing. It's an easy target. It's not a fatal flaw.

 

[Waquoit]

And they are the ones who need to lead the stand up Gampel/Hartford chants to get the arena more rowdy.

The next crowd at the XL will put the library patrons at the OSU game to shame. And at the XL, the true longtime UConn fans that attend games there lead the cheers, the student secion follows. These are the facts gleaned from in person observation, not from keyboard commandos who watch at games home.

 

[bigknight3]

The next crowd at the XL will put the library patrons at the OSU game to shame. And at the XL, the true longtime UConn fans that attend games there lead the cheers, the student secion follows. These are the facts gleaned from in person observation, not from keyboard commandos who watch at games home.

Been to every game. Season ticket holder, so don't know who you're talking to...

 

[pj]

O.K. since I'm a glutton for punishment let's look at this from another angle.

Yes, scoring more points is better. No argument there. But couldn't there be like 20 different ways for them to score 1 more point if you think it raises their probability to win the championship?

The team's overall field goal percentage is 47.53%, which is 71st in the country. If they raised that about .5% that would give them about an extra point. Isn't 71st in the country about the same as 78th in the country (their free throw percentage rank)? If they were shooting 48.03% from the field that would put that them at about 59th in the country. Wouldn't it be easier to get a 1/2 a basket a game more than raise their free throw percentage by 5%?

What about 3 point shooting? They're hitting 36.84% from 3 which is 73rd in the country. Again, about the same rank as their free throw shooting. If they could raise that a little there's the same 1 point extra a game.

What if they turned the ball over less? That would give them more shots and even if they kept the same overall shooting percentage would easily give them that extra point. They're turning the ball over 13 times a game, good for 165th in the country. If they turned the ball over 12 times a game instead then there's that same point. 12 turnovers a game would put them at about 84th in the country, again about the same ranking as their free throws. Seems they should work on turning the ball over less since that's a bigger problem than their free throw shooting.

There are a million things they could do better if they want to score 1 more point. Probably things that are easier to achieve than 5% more free throws.

My point again is that their free throw shooting is not bad enough to be as scrutinized as you are doing. It's an easy target. It's not a fatal flaw.

Every aspect of the game has potential room for improvement. It's the job of the coaches to figure out where the team can improve and invest their effort there. I have no idea if free throw shooting is an area they should focus on or not. I happen to believe that their free throw shooting percentage will increase over the course of the season, but we shall see.

You're arguing against a straw man here -- against positions I never took.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I've found the free throw back-and-forth interesting, because I had a first half concern about a couple or more individual free throws, probably DC's double miss.

During this period, the score was tight, but it didn't feel like the foul disparity was being leveraged enough. Then the dam broke open with the run, followed by a tense-at-times second half when OSU wouldn't just go away. Mostly, I was anxious because the game wasn't a blowout.

I've been persuaded that the current first quadrant free throw percentage is not worrisome, but I've also had more tolerance for those who have taken and shared a deeper look than being unhappy about the team missing 2 more free throws than the box score shows. I've seen no need for the derision directed toward those who have offered some numbers in support of their comments that have been labeled "weird." This does not mean that I've flipped to disbelieving that a. 736 FT shouldn't be a source of concern, but I did indulge my own curiosity.

I looked at where UConn ranked in FTA, FTM, and FT% for the 4 NC seasons, the 2009 FF, and the 2002 & 2006 E8 losses that 'felt' at the time (and since) most like NCs that could-to-should have happened.

I'm not going to articulate the numbers in the attached handwritten image other than to say (1) that these numbers represent a plausible basis for a currently felt sense (even if someone can prove it to be inaccurate) that a non-P5 team has a slimmer margin for error in getting a top-level seed and that UConn's FT% ranking has shined in recent NC runs, as well as the so-called "shock the world" original. (FTR, I was not "shocked," but I was profoundly overjoyed and anxious throughout as to the outcome); (2) the 2004 team was the pre-season #1 pick that lost 7 games en route to the NC, and FT% goes jump out as a weakness; and (3) this year's 9-game sample shows high rankings for FTA & FTM, but those were the case in 2006 & 2009.

I draw no conclusions strong enough to harshly dismiss those who place a high premium on elite FT% ranking, but that may be influenced by my desire for every UConn shot to look good and go in the basket.

 

[Greathusky]

I think this is the 3rd time I've posted this since last night. They shot 24-33 last night which is 72.7%. Right around their season average of 73.6% which puts them at 81st in the country out of 352 teams.

Serious question and I need an answer to this. What would you suggest is an acceptable percentage for the team to shoot this season? If you're expecting something like 80%, which would mean they hit 2-3 more free throws last night, then that's unrealistic since 80% would put them in the top 10 teams in college basketball.

If they shoot 73% from the line one game and lose then I would point to a lot of other things they did wrong to lose a game rather than missing a couple free throws.

I am guessing that if we clank three front end of 1 and 1s and lose a sweet 16 game by two points, you would be thinking about those missed opportunities.

 

[KingAG]

I am guessing that if we clank three front end of 1 and 1s and lose a sweet 16 game by two points, you would be thinking about those missed opportunities.

You can say that every game you lose about any stat

 

[HooperScooper]

I am guessing that if we clank three front end of 1 and 1s and lose a sweet 16 game by two points, you would be thinking about those missed opportunities.

I hear you, but if they shot 74% from the line for the game then I'm sure there are going to be a lot of reasons they lost the game. What if they shot 85% from the line for the game and missed 2 front ends and lost by 1? Are you still upset about the 2 front end misses? Missed free throws are such an easy target to blame.

Again, yes making more free throws is better than making less. No argument there. But you're never going to make them all so you need to have realistic expectations on that part of the game.