Pros, Cons, Conclusions vs. Oklahoma State

[navery12]

As a team our free throws #s are good (we've got Newton & Cali as snipers) but we have a few guys who aren't shooting it great (50-60% just isn't acceptable). I'd like to see 75% team average and nothing below 70% in an ideal world. I don't think it's unrealistic to want those high numbers like 80%... but to expect them may be.

Clingan's poor shooting I'll chalk up to freshman nerves. His form looks fine so I'm surprised to be honest at how poorly he's shot this far.

AJ I'll give a pass to as well, he's only got 8 on the books and his finger injury probably doesn't help. His past #s are much better.

Diarra's #s though must come up so he is more valuable on the floor late game - his stats for prior years say we shouldn't hope for better than 70% regardless.

I get what you're saying but that's just not how averages work. If the team is shooting 75% and nobody is shooting lower than 70% then that also means nobody is above high 70s. And I'm not sure that's actually any better since you want good shooters on the line at the end of games

 

[kemba]

Hmmm again, maybe it depends where you were sitting? I was in the lower section (111) and the whole section (and sections around us) were standing, clapping & cheering quite often. I didn't really notice what was going on in the upper sections. I was actually amazed that the lower section behind the basket (non-student) stood quite a bit. I thought the crowd was very loud and am a little surprised at the comments...of course not crazy loud 100% of the time- who can scream for an entire game?

Was in the same section and I agree. The big run at the end of the first half was very loud. 2nd half was quieter but at no point did I think it was dead like xl can get.

Agreed with people that the students still aren’t anywhere near what it used to be though. Just odd. It’s not supposed to be an obligation to be loud being obnoxiously loud all game is what makes sitting in the student section fun

 

[Waquoit]

at no point did I think it was dead like xl can get.

It was deader. Especially when OSU had the ball. Almost total silence for seconds at a time..

 

[kemba]

It was deader. Especially when OSU had the ball. Almost total silence for seconds at a time..

Maybe in your section I don’t know what to tell you

 

[August_West]

Not rare, normal. And there was no excuse for normal yesterday. The student section did indeed suck. When the team hit the floor to start the second half, the band played but nobody cheered. Like the paradeigm has shifted in other aspects. The best crowds are now in Hartford. It's not even close . Fans that go to games know this. If this game was in XL with the same crowd, people here would use it as evidence to put all games on campus.

lol no. So wrong.

 

[Icehawk]

I get what you're saying but that's just not how averages work. If the team is shooting 75% and nobody is shooting lower than 70% then that also means nobody is above high 70s. And I'm not sure that's actually any better since you want good shooters on the line at the end of games

What I want is a higher median which those 3 guys shooting even just high 60s would accomplish.

I think any player seeing the floor should be aiming for 70%.

 

[Waquoit]

Maybe in your section I don’t know what to tell you

If your section was louder, I would of heard it.

 

[HooperScooper]

I don't think it's unrealistic to want those high numbers like 80%... but to expect them may be.

If you want something that's unrealistic, then isn't that being unrealistic?

 

[Icehawk]

Dude, I'm on the Boneyard if I'm not a walking bag of contradictions I think I found the wrong place!

I think you know what I mean though.

 

[superjohn]

lol no. So wrong.

I think this guy lives under a stairwell at the Civic Center.

 

[pj]

I think this is the 3rd time I've posted this since last night. They shot 24-33 last night which is 72.7%. Right around their season average of 73.6% which puts them at 81st in the country out of 352 teams.

Serious question and I need an answer to this. What would you suggest is an acceptable percentage for the team to shoot this season? If you're expecting something like 80%, which would mean they hit 2-3 more free throws last night, then that's unrealistic since 80% would put them in the top 10 teams in college basketball.

If they shoot 73% from the line one game and lose then I would point to a lot of other things they did wrong to lose a game rather than missing a couple free throws.

If you want to win a national championship, you need to be better than 81st in many categories.

The 2013-14 team shot 78% on free throws. The 2010-11 team shot 76.3%.

The difference between 78% and 73.6% is about one point per game on average. On KenPom, an extra point per game would move UConn up from #4 to #3. The improvement would rarely be decisive in any one game, but it would bring the team closer to championship caliber.

 

[HooperScooper]

If you want to win a national championship, you need to be better than 81st in many categories.

Can't disagree with that. But the Huskies are. Looking at advanced metrics using Kenpom.com the team overall is #4. #9 in offense and #9 in defense. The only team that is top 10 in both so I guess they're doing a lot extremely well.

Free throws might not be their strength but it's not terrible either. No teams do everything well but I just don't think their free throw shooting is a fatal flaw. And good news. They're up to #79 in free throw percentage so they're better than 81st now there too.

 

[HooperScooper]

The difference between 78% and 73.6% is about one point per game on average. On KenPom, an extra point per game would move UConn up from #4 to #3. The improvement would rarely be decisive in any one game, but it would bring the team closer to championship caliber.

Not sure I understand this point. You think the difference between #3 and #4 on Kenpom would bring them closer to championship caliber? Oy vey.

 

[nashusky109]

Pink hat guy always kept the party going. Miss him a lot this year for the students sake.

 

[polycom]

You know that you have a good team when, the biggest fans of the team are complaining from the comfort of their couches what 18 year olds are doing during a basketball game. No talk about the game but lots of talk about what the fans were doing… we will have a great season.

 

[pj]

Not sure I understand this point. You think the difference between #3 and #4 on Kenpom would bring them closer to championship caliber? Oy vey.

Just quantifying how much free throw percentage matters. There's an element of luck in the tourney of course, but yes, the 3rd best team has a better chance than the 4th best team.

To quantify that, we can look at historical data -- the #1 seeds win the NCAA tourney 16% of the team and the #2 seeds 3.5% of the time (History of Records By Seed in the NCAA Tournament). The difference between 3rd best and 4th best teams (both 1 seeds) is probably about 1/4 the difference between a 1 and 2 seed, so the 4th best team will have a chance to win the championship about 3% lower than the 3rd best team.

So if you take KenPom numbers seriously, if UConn could increase their free throw shooting percentage from 73.6% to 78% while keeping everything else the same, it would increase their chance of winning the national championship this year from something like 12% to 15% or 10% to 13%. Which strikes me as a meaningful change, similar to a betting odds change from 8:1 to 7:1.

 

[pj]

Can't disagree with that. But the Huskies are. Looking at advanced metrics using Kenpom.com the team overall is #4. #9 in offense and #9 in defense. The only team that is top 10 in both so I guess they're doing a lot extremely well.

Free throws might not be their strength but it's not terrible either. No teams do everything well but I just don't think their free throw shooting is a fatal flaw. And good news. They're up to #79 in free throw percentage so they're better than 81st now there too.

Agreed.

I am taking a middle ground between the posters complaining about free throw shooting and your point that UConn's free throw shooting is above average and that that may be good enough. Yes, the team can win a national championship shooting 73% on free throws. But their odds become better if they shoot FTs better.

I don't have time for it at the moment, but it would be interesting to look at the last 20 national champions and see how many of them shot free throws at 73.6% or lower.

 

[REB1094]

Agreed.

I am taking a middle ground between the posters complaining about free throw shooting and your point that UConn's free throw shooting is above average and that that may be good enough. Yes, the team can win a national championship shooting 73% on free throws. But their odds become better if they shoot FTs better.

I don't have time for it at the moment, but it would be interesting to look at the last 20 national champions and see how many of them shot free throws at 73.6% or lower.

Don’t have to go too far. 2022 Kansas shot 71.7% on free throws on the season according to sports reference

R64 vs TX Southern: 4-9 (44.4%)
R32 vs Creighton: 19-20 (95%) !!!
Sweet 16 vs Providence: 20-28 (71.4%)
Elite 8 vs. Miami: 13-26 (50%)
Final 4 vs. Villanova: 10-13 (76.9%)
Championship vs. UNC: 8-14 (57.1%)

2021 Baylor: 70.8%
2019 UVA: 74.4%
2018 Villanova: 77.9%
2017 UNC: 70.1%

 

[navery12]

If you want to win a national championship, you need to be better than 81st in many categories.

The 2013-14 team shot 78% on free throws. The 2010-11 team shot 76.3%.

The difference between 78% and 73.6% is about one point per game on average. On KenPom, an extra point per game would move UConn up from #4 to #3. The improvement would rarely be decisive in any one game, but it would bring the team closer to championship caliber.

This math makes sense if improving from 73% to 78% improved our seed line from 4 to 3. Moving from 4 to 3 on KenPom has absolutely 0 tangible effect on UConn winning a national championship this season. This is Kansas's KenPom page from last year, sure looks like you don't actually have to be better than 81st in most categories

 

[dennismenace]

I was surprised that the Oklahoma State center (Cisse) got two quick fouls. Upperclassman. If either were bad calls that would be huge. I don't have a replay tape so if anyone could care to comment please do. I mention this because it has frequently happened to Sanogo in the past and changes the complexion of the whole game. Outside of that I thought OS was hyper aggressive (which is good) but often results in more fouls. I got the impression that they were trying to intimidate us. We are likely to see this again so we had better get DC schooled up and ready for action. Overall, I admired the way OS played. Lot of heart and athleticism on that team.

 

[bigknight3]

Although I couldn't make last night's game (casual fan, i know, i know), in general, EVERYONE in the whole darn arena needs to get more involved, more rowdy, and STAND UP AND BE LOUD MUCH MUCH MORE OFTEN.

It's just so awkward & lame that everyone in the non-student sections are just itching for UConn to score ASAP at the start of the game and 2nd half so they can sit their butts back down in the seats & be quiet.

There's always palpable irritation from way too many people if--heaven forbid--you decide to stand up and be rowdy for more than a couple of good plays a game...the "siT dOwN wE CanT sEE tHe GaMe!!!" vibe needs to go away.

I'm not saying the arena needs to be like last year's XL Villanova game 24/7 for every game, but as a whole, we need to be better. Everywhere in the arena...not just the student section.

This a special team. Let's reward them with special crowds!

/endrant

Never gonna happen. Even in good years the only stand up the whole game sections are in the student section. And they are the ones who need to lead the stand up Gampel/Hartford chants to get the arena more rowdy. Otherwise they'll stay seated.

 

[REB1094]

I was surprised that the Oklahoma State center (Cisse) got two quick fouls. Upperclassman. If either were bad calls that would be huge. I don't have a replay tape so if anyone could care to comment please do. I mention this because it has frequently happened to Sanogo in the past and changes the complexion of the whole game. Outside of that I thought OS was hyper aggressive (which is good) but often results in more fouls. I got the impression that they were trying to intimidate us. We are likely to see this again so we had better get DC schooled up and ready for action. Overall, I admired the way OS played. Lot of heart and athleticism on that team.

I don’t remember the first foul but the second was a major mental gap by Sisse. Sanogo got a steal and was taking it coast to coast (lol). Sisse pretty much took the foul and wrapped him up under the basket

 

[Vancat]

Was in the same section and I agree. The big run at the end of the first half was very loud. 2nd half was quieter but at no point did I think it was dead like xl

The guy under the XL stairwell is now busy dying on his hill

 

[pj]

This math makes sense if improving from 73% to 78% improved our seed line from 4 to 3. Moving from 4 to 3 on KenPom has absolutely 0 tangible effect on UConn winning a national championship this season. This is Kansas's KenPom page from last year, sure looks like you don't actually have to be better than 81st in most categories

View attachment 81481

Going by that, Kansas was better than 81st in 6 of 12 miscellaneous components and 3 of 8 of the Four Factors, or let's say 9 of 20 (45%) of statistical categories. Roughly half. Seems like "many" is correct. I didn't say "most."

 

[navery12]

Going by that, Kansas was better than 81st in 6 of 12 miscellaneous components and 3 of 8 of the Four Factors, or let's say 9 of 20 (45%) of statistical categories. Roughly half. Seems like "many" is correct. I didn't say "most."

And UConn is better than 81st in 12 of the 20, yet you continue to spin some weird narrative about their FT shooting