Prognosticator's Predictions Game 4 vs Duke
- Thread starter MSGRET
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While I am absolutely no fan of Duke, particular more this season than ever before, in a weird ironic twist, I actually have always liked Lawson. Former Tennessee player and now coach at Duke should be enough for me to despise her, but for some reason I do not. I always felt she was a good analyst, and this video reinforces my belief that she is a good person. Other than to say it will be a UConn win, I have no prediction of score.
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UConn 104 Duke 52
Azzi 32points
Azzi 32points
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Duke is slated as having a good defense, but lacks in offense....UConn is notable in both areas.
UConn 68-45.
UConn 68-45.
I'm thinking this as well. Plus it's the day after Thanksgiving on a neutral ground. Some of these tourney results have been a bit weird. I think the score will be 68 -57.
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UConn 93 - Duke 58
MSGRET
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Need the declared winner for this to count.
triaddukefan
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Well many years ago I participated in one of these threads during the NCAA tournament. I nailed the exact final score. Wishing to preserve my perfect record, I haven't participated in one since.
I'm just hoping for a better result under Lawson than the ones experienced under the previous coach. Those were demoralizing as a fan.
I think we get to 60 points... hopefully the final margin will be 25 or less.
cferraro04
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In looking at this game...the first thing that jumps out at me is the size of Duke's roster...they have 17 on their roster. After analyzing the minutes played by each player there is roughly 15 players who have played some minutes this year and only 12 women who have played significant minutes. UConn's team only has 10 women who have gotten minutes this year. And only 7 women who have played meaningful minutes (10 or more minutes /game) while Caroline Ducharme is lagging behind with 7.5 minutes per game (I expect that to change as the season goes on).
So, based on who will play significant minutes it is easy to see that UConn will win this game by a large margin. I am going to predict the MOV will be 28 points.
UConn - 92
Duke - 64
Match-ups:
Kennedy Brown (6'6", JR) vs Aliyah Edwards (6'3" JR): Kennedy has started in all 5 of Duke's games played and has been averaging 10.8 points per game and 5.2 RBs / game while Aliyah Edwards has been relying on her speed to get to spots for shooting and rebounding and has been averaging 15 points per game and 10 rebounds. Advantage: UConn
Taya Corosdale (6'3", Graduate) vs Aubrey Griffin (6'1", RS JR) - Taya has only played in three of Duke's 5 games but she has started in all three games. Taya is averaging 5.7 points per game and 3.7 RBs per game. Aubrey has had a heck of a comeback year so far and is averaging 14.3 points per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. More importantly, Aubrey has been impacting the game defensively as well. Advantage: UConn
Jordan Oliver (5'10, RS JR) vs Lou Lopez-Senechal (6'1", Grad) - Jordan has started in all 5 of Duke's games but, has only averaged 19.8 minutes per game and will probably share her minutes with Reigan Richardson (5'11", Sophmore). Between the two of them they average 14.6 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game. Meanwhile Lou averages 16.3 points per game and only .7 RBs per game. UConn has the edge in scoring but, at this position Duke has the advantage in RBS. No Advantage - EVEN
Lee Volker (5'11", So) vs Nika Mul (5'10", JR) - Lee also has started in all 5 of Duke's games however, she only sees 18.9 minutes per game. She averages 5 points per game and 3.8 RBs per game. Lee shares her minutes with Venessa DeJesus (5'8", JR) who averages 15.8 minutes, 3.8 points and 4.5 RBS per game. Together this tandem averages 8.8 points and 8.3 RBs per game. Nika has been averaging 4.0 points per game and 2.3 RBs per game. While the Duke duo will average more points and RBs in this match-up Nika impacts the game both defensively and by setting up her team mates leading UConn with 10 assists per game. Match-up: Even
Celeste Taylor (5'11", SR) vs Azzi Fudd (5'11", So) - Celeste also started in all five of Duke's games. She also has played the most minutes per game at 23 minutes per game. She averages 12 points per game and 4.6 RBs. She shares her time with Shayeann Day-Wilson who plays 20.6 minutes per game who averages 6.4 points and 2.8 RBs per game. Together they average 18.4 points per game and 7.4 RBs per game. Azzi Fudd has been nothing short of spectacular this year she has put the team on her back and has led the way...she is averaging 30 points per game and 1.3 RBs per game. Advantage - UConn
Bench: Duke has a much deeper bench...with 15 players getting minutes compared to UConn's 10 players. I would expect that Duke's bench will get a lot shorter when they play UConn as I suspect they will be behind considerably and will not have the luxury of getting everyone significant minutes. So, looking at the remaining scorers on the bench Duke has 17.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game on the bench...while UConn's short bench will only have 5.7 points and 6.8 RBs coming off the bench. Boy could we use Dorka in this one. In any case... Advantage: Duke.
Intangibles: UConn will play an uptempo game, averaging 90.7 points per game while Duke averages 75.4 points per game, with multiple players being able to hit from three. UConn averages 8.7 threes per game while Duke averages 2.8 threes per game. Duke averages 43.2 RBs per game while UConn averages 39 RBs per game. UConn commits 15.7 turnovers per game while scoring 31 points off of turnovers that they cause. Duke commits 14.6 turnovers per game while scoring 26. 6 points off of turnovers that they cause. Game is played on a neutral court so no home court advantage. Coaching Geno and Chris incredible, tried and tested Duo. Advantage UConn
What would I like to see in this game: I would like to see Caroline get going...and score 6-8 points; pick-up 4-5 rebounds. We need her to be productive. I would like to see Ayanna slow down around the basket and soften up her touch...score 4 points and get 4 rebounds. I would like to see Nika score some more. I know she is facilitating the rest of the team but we need her to be a scoring threat. 6-9 points would be great with 1 or 2 threes, now that would be awesome! And if our 6'5" bench player could find a way to get off the bench and play some productive minutes that would be fantastic.
So, based on who will play significant minutes it is easy to see that UConn will win this game by a large margin. I am going to predict the MOV will be 28 points.
UConn - 92
Duke - 64
Match-ups:
Kennedy Brown (6'6", JR) vs Aliyah Edwards (6'3" JR): Kennedy has started in all 5 of Duke's games played and has been averaging 10.8 points per game and 5.2 RBs / game while Aliyah Edwards has been relying on her speed to get to spots for shooting and rebounding and has been averaging 15 points per game and 10 rebounds. Advantage: UConn
Taya Corosdale (6'3", Graduate) vs Aubrey Griffin (6'1", RS JR) - Taya has only played in three of Duke's 5 games but she has started in all three games. Taya is averaging 5.7 points per game and 3.7 RBs per game. Aubrey has had a heck of a comeback year so far and is averaging 14.3 points per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. More importantly, Aubrey has been impacting the game defensively as well. Advantage: UConn
Jordan Oliver (5'10, RS JR) vs Lou Lopez-Senechal (6'1", Grad) - Jordan has started in all 5 of Duke's games but, has only averaged 19.8 minutes per game and will probably share her minutes with Reigan Richardson (5'11", Sophmore). Between the two of them they average 14.6 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game. Meanwhile Lou averages 16.3 points per game and only .7 RBs per game. UConn has the edge in scoring but, at this position Duke has the advantage in RBS. No Advantage - EVEN
Lee Volker (5'11", So) vs Nika Mul (5'10", JR) - Lee also has started in all 5 of Duke's games however, she only sees 18.9 minutes per game. She averages 5 points per game and 3.8 RBs per game. Lee shares her minutes with Venessa DeJesus (5'8", JR) who averages 15.8 minutes, 3.8 points and 4.5 RBS per game. Together this tandem averages 8.8 points and 8.3 RBs per game. Nika has been averaging 4.0 points per game and 2.3 RBs per game. While the Duke duo will average more points and RBs in this match-up Nika impacts the game both defensively and by setting up her team mates leading UConn with 10 assists per game. Match-up: Even
Celeste Taylor (5'11", SR) vs Azzi Fudd (5'11", So) - Celeste also started in all five of Duke's games. She also has played the most minutes per game at 23 minutes per game. She averages 12 points per game and 4.6 RBs. She shares her time with Shayeann Day-Wilson who plays 20.6 minutes per game who averages 6.4 points and 2.8 RBs per game. Together they average 18.4 points per game and 7.4 RBs per game. Azzi Fudd has been nothing short of spectacular this year she has put the team on her back and has led the way...she is averaging 30 points per game and 1.3 RBs per game. Advantage - UConn
Bench: Duke has a much deeper bench...with 15 players getting minutes compared to UConn's 10 players. I would expect that Duke's bench will get a lot shorter when they play UConn as I suspect they will be behind considerably and will not have the luxury of getting everyone significant minutes. So, looking at the remaining scorers on the bench Duke has 17.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game on the bench...while UConn's short bench will only have 5.7 points and 6.8 RBs coming off the bench. Boy could we use Dorka in this one. In any case... Advantage: Duke.
Intangibles: UConn will play an uptempo game, averaging 90.7 points per game while Duke averages 75.4 points per game, with multiple players being able to hit from three. UConn averages 8.7 threes per game while Duke averages 2.8 threes per game. Duke averages 43.2 RBs per game while UConn averages 39 RBs per game. UConn commits 15.7 turnovers per game while scoring 31 points off of turnovers that they cause. Duke commits 14.6 turnovers per game while scoring 26. 6 points off of turnovers that they cause. Game is played on a neutral court so no home court advantage. Coaching Geno and Chris incredible, tried and tested Duo. Advantage UConn
What would I like to see in this game: I would like to see Caroline get going...and score 6-8 points; pick-up 4-5 rebounds. We need her to be productive. I would like to see Ayanna slow down around the basket and soften up her touch...score 4 points and get 4 rebounds. I would like to see Nika score some more. I know she is facilitating the rest of the team but we need her to be a scoring threat. 6-9 points would be great with 1 or 2 threes, now that would be awesome! And if our 6'5" bench player could find a way to get off the bench and play some productive minutes that would be fantastic.
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Not that it matters, but I don't see how Duke's 5 star post player Brown gives up any advantage to UConn's 5 star forward Edwards who has only played one game at center this year as a replacement for Dorka.
There's a distinct difference in shot blocking, rebounding and perhaps even pure inside scoring ability.
At worst they're even, but at best the advantage would go to Brown & Duke at that position IMHO.
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UConn 87-61
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