Prognosticator's Predictions Game 4 vs Duke

[Lynn Hill]

Having moved to NC after being a UCONN fan for 25 years and going to most of their home games and Final 4, I have bought, for the second year Season Tickets to Duke. This is because I like and respect Kara Lawson. There is no way Duke can keep up. UCONN 95-Duke 50.

 

[hoopingcrane]

UConn 77- Duke 64

 

[Nolefan]

90-60 UConn

 

[Zarathustra]

UConn 104 Duke 52
Azzi 32points

That's confidence for you! Let's add Lou Lopez with 20 points and Aubrey with 15++
not to mention the rebounds from Aaliyah! Everybody eats!

 

[Zarathustra]

Having moved to NC after being a UCONN fan for 25 years and going to most of their home games and Final 4, I have bought, for the second year Season Tickets to Duke. This is because I like and respect Kara Lawson. There is no way Duke can keep up. UCONN 95-Duke 50.

A run of BIG MOV!!! Let the game begin!

 

[oldude]

Yet another P5 team loaded up with transfers. The Huskies will rattle the Blue Devils.

UConn 86 - Duke 68

 

[Zorro]

95-55 Huskies.

 

[AzzisBraids]

74-60 UConn wins. Azzi notches 25+, Nika's offense gets going, Aaliyah has another double double. Shayeann Day-Wilson and Celeste Taylor cause some match-up issues but the Huskies prevail.

 

[The deacon]

UConn 81, Duke 63

 

[Huskyfan63]

UConn 78 - Duke 59

 

[Wbbfan1]

Duke averages 76 points per game mainly because they scored 111 points against Charleston Southern. Also they are a good rebounding team averaging 43.2 per game. 2022-23 Women's Basketball Cumulative Statistics - Duke University

If UConn plays their game it should be a double digit win for UConn as UConn is the more talented team.

UConn 77 Duke 58

 

[Wbbfan1]

UCONN 94 - Duke 55; MoV: 39, not so many fouls on the UCONN bigs, so we see more of Ayanna in this game & Griffin has another outstanding game, Fudd gets another 30+ pt outing, but...

Oregon State beats Iowa, OUCH! No matchup with Iowa on the West Coast until the elite eight if Iowa gets their "stuff" together....

I think we will see UConn vs Iowa. Caitlin Clark is averaging 26 PPG and will score enough points for Iowa to get the win. Instead of the Paige vs Caitlin matchup, we'll see Azzi vs Cailin.

 

[jabstep]

UConn 85-68

 

[Carnac]

Believe it or not, but LSU and Kim Mulkey scheduled the easiest first five games in the Nation. Here are their first five games and their opponents current Massey ratings.

1. Bellarmine #332
2. Miss Valley State #354
3. W. Carolina #324
4. Houston Christian #310
5. Northwestern St #351

This team is currently ranked #12 in the AP and #13 in the Coaches polls, has a Strength of Schedule rating by Massey of 354, out of a possible 361. But what is really frightening is that they are a 3 seed in Charlie Creme's latest Bracketology release.

At least Dukes SOS is currently 91 in Massey's ratings and their first five games are as follows.

1. NC A&T #244
2. Charleston Southern #356
3. Davidson #140
4. Texas A&M #47
5. Toledo #70

Good post Serge. You'd have to go some to intentionally schedule a weaker schedule that Kim Mulkey "regularly" does. THAT'S her standard modus operandi. She's gets away with it every year. She always starts the season with a 12-0 or 13-0 record, and get's a 1 or 2 seed every year from the NCAA tournament selection committee.

 

[#12in21]

Uconn 89
Duyke 70

 

[pk1234]

UConn 80
Duke 68

 

[HuskyNan]

In looking at this game...the first thing that jumps out at me is the size of Duke's roster...they have 17 on their roster. After analyzing the minutes played by each player there is roughly 15 players who have played some minutes this year and only 12 women who have played significant minutes. UConn's team only has 10 women who have gotten minutes this year. And only 7 women who have played meaningful minutes (10 or more minutes /game) while Caroline Ducharme is lagging behind with 7.5 minutes per game (I expect that to change as the season goes on).

So, based on who will play significant minutes it is easy to see that UConn will win this game by a large margin. I am going to predict the MOV will be 28 points.

UConn - 92
Duke - 64

Match-ups:

Kennedy Brown (6'6", JR) vs Aliyah Edwards (6'3" JR): Kennedy has started in all 5 of Duke's games played and has been averaging 10.8 points per game and 5.2 RBs / game while Aliyah Edwards has been relying on her speed to get to spots for shooting and rebounding and has been averaging 15 points per game and 10 rebounds. Advantage: UConn

Taya Corosdale (6'3", Graduate) vs Aubrey Griffin (6'1", RS JR) - Taya has only played in three of Duke's 5 games but she has started in all three games. Taya is averaging 5.7 points per game and 3.7 RBs per game. Aubrey has had a heck of a comeback year so far and is averaging 14.3 points per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. More importantly, Aubrey has been impacting the game defensively as well. Advantage: UConn

Jordan Oliver (5'10, RS JR) vs Lou Lopez-Senechal (6'1", Grad) - Jordan has started in all 5 of Duke's games but, has only averaged 19.8 minutes per game and will probably share her minutes with Reigan Richardson (5'11", Sophmore). Between the two of them they average 14.6 points per game and 6.8 rebounds per game. Meanwhile Lou averages 16.3 points per game and only .7 RBs per game. UConn has the edge in scoring but, at this position Duke has the advantage in RBS. No Advantage - EVEN

Lee Volker (5'11", So) vs Nika Mul (5'10", JR) - Lee also has started in all 5 of Duke's games however, she only sees 18.9 minutes per game. She averages 5 points per game and 3.8 RBs per game. Lee shares her minutes with Venessa DeJesus (5'8", JR) who averages 15.8 minutes, 3.8 points and 4.5 RBS per game. Together this tandem averages 8.8 points and 8.3 RBs per game. Nika has been averaging 4.0 points per game and 2.3 RBs per game. While the Duke duo will average more points and RBs in this match-up Nika impacts the game both defensively and by setting up her team mates leading UConn with 10 assists per game. Match-up: Even

Celeste Taylor (5'11", SR) vs Azzi Fudd (5'11", So) - Celeste also started in all five of Duke's games. She also has played the most minutes per game at 23 minutes per game. She averages 12 points per game and 4.6 RBs. She shares her time with Shayeann Day-Wilson who plays 20.6 minutes per game who averages 6.4 points and 2.8 RBs per game. Together they average 18.4 points per game and 7.4 RBs per game. Azzi Fudd has been nothing short of spectacular this year she has put the team on her back and has led the way...she is averaging 30 points per game and 1.3 RBs per game. Advantage - UConn

Bench: Duke has a much deeper bench...with 15 players getting minutes compared to UConn's 10 players. I would expect that Duke's bench will get a lot shorter when they play UConn as I suspect they will be behind considerably and will not have the luxury of getting everyone significant minutes. So, looking at the remaining scorers on the bench Duke has 17.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game on the bench...while UConn's short bench will only have 5.7 points and 6.8 RBs coming off the bench. Boy could we use Dorka in this one. In any case... Advantage: Duke.

Intangibles: UConn will play an uptempo game, averaging 90.7 points per game while Duke averages 75.4 points per game, with multiple players being able to hit from three. UConn averages 8.7 threes per game while Duke averages 2.8 threes per game. Duke averages 43.2 RBs per game while UConn averages 39 RBs per game. UConn commits 15.7 turnovers per game while scoring 31 points off of turnovers that they cause. Duke commits 14.6 turnovers per game while scoring 26. 6 points off of turnovers that they cause. Game is played on a neutral court so no home court advantage. Coaching Geno and Chris incredible, tried and tested Duo. Advantage UConn

What would I like to see in this game: I would like to see Caroline get going...and score 6-8 points; pick-up 4-5 rebounds. We need her to be productive. I would like to see Ayanna slow down around the basket and soften up her touch...score 4 points and get 4 rebounds. I would like to see Nika score some more. I know she is facilitating the rest of the team but we need her to be a scoring threat. 6-9 points would be great with 1 or 2 threes, now that would be awesome! And if our 6'5" bench player could find a way to get off the bench and play some productive minutes that would be fantastic.

I understand what you’re doing and why but comparing stats may not be the best way to analyze player comparisons. For example, comparing point guards using ppg and rebounds doesn’t make sense to me. It appears Jordyn Oliver is playing point and she has 19 assists in 5 games while Nika has 31 in 3 games. Jordyn is also a transfer learning how to play with new teammates on a new team. Credit to her for having only 5 TOs. Still I see Nika having the advantage by a wide margin.

As for intangibles, 11 of Duke’s 17 players are transfer. That’s a lot of players to integrate into a new team.

 

[JAMBall]

UConn - 88 Duke - 68

 

[mmt]

Uconn 91-61

 

[rvwsleep]

UConn 86 - Duke 61

 

[Hayven]

UConn 72
Duke 59

 

[bantamlaker]

UConn 82 - 52

 

[Bball244]

UConn wins 101-68

 

[Rb335]

Uconn 82-60