Prognosticator's Game 7 (Baylor) Predictions

[hoopingcrane]

UConn, 67-63

 

[j66kicker]

Paige blows by Didi and gets fouled for an and-one. Walking past Didi to the FT line she says, “Aren’t you the defensive player of the year? You can’t guard me.”

ONO gets in early foul trouble and is on the bench most of the game. They kill us inside and it goes to overtime. With Baylor up one with 21 seconds left, Kim gets a technical for jacket throwing after Aaliya flattens an out-of-breath, panting Gusters, who - unbelievably - gets called for the foul.

Aaliya sinks both FT’s and Paige converts the “T” FT after telling Holly Rowe, “I got this.” Huskies have possession after the T and are able to pass & dribble out the remaining 21 seconds (while high-fiving and yucking it up) while Kim is apoplectic trying to get her team to foul, which they can’t/don’t.

Skin-of-your-teeth Husky win 72-70.

 

[and one]

UConn 79-68. We have to shoot better than last go around with Baylor, but that is a low bar. If we can shoot 30% for 3s, and make at least 6 we win. If we score in the 60s our win chance is less than if we score in the 70s. I see UConn less tired in the fourth quarter and pulling away.

 

[WFFL]

Baylor 74
Uconn 67

 

[azfan]

Baylor 77 UCONN 68

 

[Bball244]

UConn wins 69-61. I think 3 point shooting percentage will be a big factor, especially in what I think will be a low scoring game (under 70 points). This will be the freshmen’s game - Paige and Aaliyah.

 

[cferraro04]

Why does everyone think Di Di Richards will play off of Paige Buekers? Maybe Ursin Moon gets that call.
If Di Di is on Buekers then who guards Westbrook or Williams? I think this is an up and down game. I also think that UConn may play sloppy in the first half after such a long layoff and then pick it up in the 2nd half. The key is to keep Olivia out of foul trouble as we will need a presence in the post both defensively and offensively. I think Williams and Griffin have great games. Makurat finds her stroke. Paige and Edwards both have freshmen moments but have decent games. UConn win 81 - 77


Olivia Nelson Ododo (JR) - 6'5" (23.2 minutes) 17.2 points; 8.7 rebounds;
Anne Makurat (SO) - 6'2" (30.2 minutes) 5.8 points; 4.7 rebounds
Evina Westbrook (RS JR) - 6'0" (30.3 minutes) 9.5 points; 4.8 rebounds
Paige Buekers (FR) - 5'11" (35 minutes) 18.2 points; 6.0 rebounds
Christyn Williams (JR) - 5'10" (36 minutes) 17.0 points; 6.0 rebounds

Aaliyah Edwards (FR) - 6'3" (16 minutes) 10.2 points; 4.2 rebounds
Aubrey Griffin (SO) - 6'1" (15.5 minutes) 5.8 points; 3.3 rebounds
Nika Muhl (FR) - 5'10" (11 minutes) 0.0 points; 0.7 rebounds
Mir MacLean (FR) - 5'11" (6.3 minutes) 4.3 points; 2.2 rebounds

Queen Egbo (JR) - 6'3" (19.6 minutes) 13.4 points; 7.7 rebounds
NaLyssa Smith (JR) - 6'2" (27.0 minutes) 17.3 points; 9.3 rebounds
Di Di Richards (SR) - 6'1" (25.7 minutes) 7.1 points; 3.0 rebounds
Caitlin Bickle (JR) - 6'0" (20.1 minutes) 5.9 points; 6.9 rebounds
Ursin Moon (SR) - 5'6" (24.9 minutes) 7.6 points; 5.0 rebounds

Trinity Oliver (JR) - 5'9" (21.6 minutes) 7.1 points; 3.0 rebounds
DiJonai Carrington (SR) - 5'11" (19.5 minutes) 12.0 points; 4.0 rebounds
Hannah Gusters (FR) - 6'5" (14.4 minutes) 10.6 points; 1.8 rebounds
Oliver Jordyn (SO) - 5'10" (15.0 minutes) 5.5 points; 3.3 rebounds
Sarah Andrews (FR) - 5'6" (14.9 minutes) 5.4 points; 2.4 rebounds
Jaden Owens (SO) - 5'8" (12.0 minutes) 3.5 points; 1.5 rebounds

A couple of observations:

Baylor averages 90.3 points per game while holding their opponents to 48.9
UConn averages 87.0 points per game while holding their opponents to 49.7
Baylor's scoring margin is 41.7
UConn's scoring margin is 37.3
Baylor shoots 28 for 98 from three for a .286 percentage from three (3.5/game)
UConn shoots 37 for 111 from three for a .333 percentage from three (6.2/game)
Baylor shoots .504 from the floor
UConn shoots .537 from the floor
Baylor shoots 126 for 184 from the line for a .685 average
UConn shoots 75 for 111 from the line for a .676 average
Baylor gets 53.1 rebounds per game
UConn gets 45.5 rebounds per game
Baylor gets 26.1 assists per game
UConn gets 22.7 assists per game
Baylor turns the ball over 16.8 times for a 1.6 Assist / TO ratio (points off turnovers 27)
UConn turns the ball over 15.7 times for a 1.4 Assist / TO ratio (points off turnovers 24)
Baylor gets 13.1 steals per game
UConn gets 10.3 steals per game
Baylor gets 5.3 blocks per game
UConn gets 5.2 blocks per game

Baylor's advantages are lots of seniors and junior leadership; Baylor gets to the line more often than UConn; Baylor plays an aggressive defense getting steals and causing turnovers only a little better than UConn.

UConn's advantages: They are a little better shooting team, they hit more 3s per game, they take care of the basketball a little better than Baylor.

This game will come down to match-ups. While Baylor is more mature with more seniors and juniors than UConn. UConn is extremely talented. I do not agree that the game plan posted earlier for beating UConn is as easily achievable as the poster seem to indicate. I believe game plans are good and necessary but the match-ups and the individual performances that day are the "x" factor. Who will step up for UConn will Christyn Williams have a record day? Will Aubrey Griffin find her stride? Will Olivia stay out of foul trouble and prove she belongs in the conversation for one of the best bigs in the country? Will Evina show why she was so successful in Tennessee? Will Paige Buekers prove why she was number one coming out of high school or will she get nervous on the big stage and suddenly remember that she is only a freshman? Will Makurat find her 3 point shot? And will Aaliyah Edwards continue to impress? There are a lot of variables here that make the aforementioned game plan more difficult than it appears.

Keep in mind Baylor heretofore has successfully spread the minutes out among 11 players, which they can do with such a heavily laden upper classmen team while UConn because of their youth has concentrated the minutes among 8 players. I don't expect to see Baylor continue to spread the minutes in this game they will shorten their bench and give more minutes to their producers. It should be noted that Carrington is only 10 for 36 from 3 point land.

Olivia Nelson-Ododo vs Queen Egbo...this will be a great match-up and I think if Olivia can stay out of foul trouble she can win this match-up...slight ADVANTAGE UCONN

Anne Makurat vs NaLyssa Smith - I think NaLyssa Smith is too athletic for Anne and either Aubrey or Aaliyah will need to be called in. ADVANTAGE BAYLOR

Evina Westbrook vs Di Di Richards - this will be a great match-up as well. I think this match-up will be somewhat EVEN

Paige Buekers vs Ursin Moon - Here we have a Senior vs a Freshman...I look look for Ursin to cause problems for Paige and hopefully Paige can stay out of foul trouble. But, at the end of the day Paige will be Paige. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Christyn Williams vs Caitlin Bickle - I am looking for Christyn to have a big game she will show why she was number one coming out of high school. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Bench - Baylor's bench is much deeper than UConn's - Big ADVANTAGE FOR BAYLOR

I think UConn will win this game 81 to 77

 

[vaeman]

Uconn 82-68

 

[eebmg]

Why does everyone think Di Di Richards will play off of Paige Buekers? Maybe Ursin Moon gets that call.
If Di Di is on Buekers then who guards Westbrook or Williams? I think this is an up and down game. I also think that UConn may play sloppy in the first half after such a long layoff and then pick it up in the 2nd half. The key is to keep Olivia out of foul trouble as we will need a presence in the post both defensively and offensively. I think Williams and Griffin have great games. Makurat finds her stroke. Paige and Edwards both have freshmen moments but have decent games. UConn win 81 - 77


Olivia Nelson Ododo (JR) - 6'5" (23.2 minutes) 17.2 points; 8.7 rebounds;
Anne Makurat (SO) - 6'2" (30.2 minutes) 5.8 points; 4.7 rebounds
Evina Westbrook (RS JR) - 6'0" (30.3 minutes) 9.5 points; 4.8 rebounds
Paige Buekers (FR) - 5'11" (35 minutes) 18.2 points; 6.0 rebounds
Christyn Williams (JR) - 5'10" (36 minutes) 17.0 points; 6.0 rebounds

Aaliyah Edwards (FR) - 6'3" (16 minutes) 10.2 points; 4.2 rebounds
Aubrey Griffin (SO) - 6'1" (15.5 minutes) 5.8 points; 3.3 rebounds
Nika Muhl (FR) - 5'10" (11 minutes) 0.0 points; 0.7 rebounds
Mir MacLean (FR) - 5'11" (6.3 minutes) 4.3 points; 2.2 rebounds

Queen Egbo (JR) - 6'3" (19.6 minutes) 13.4 points; 7.7 rebounds
NaLyssa Smith (JR) - 6'2" (27.0 minutes) 17.3 points; 9.3 rebounds
Di Di Richards (SR) - 6'1" (25.7 minutes) 7.1 points; 3.0 rebounds
Caitlin Bickle (JR) - 6'0" (20.1 minutes) 5.9 points; 6.9 rebounds
Ursin Moon (SR) - 5'6" (24.9 minutes) 7.6 points; 5.0 rebounds

Trinity Oliver (JR) - 5'9" (21.6 minutes) 7.1 points; 3.0 rebounds
DiJonai Carrington (SR) - 5'11" (19.5 minutes) 12.0 points; 4.0 rebounds
Hannah Gusters (FR) - 6'5" (14.4 minutes) 10.6 points; 1.8 rebounds
Oliver Jordyn (SO) - 5'10" (15.0 minutes) 5.5 points; 3.3 rebounds
Sarah Andrews (FR) - 5'6" (14.9 minutes) 5.4 points; 2.4 rebounds
Jaden Owens (SO) - 5'8" (12.0 minutes) 3.5 points; 1.5 rebounds

A couple of observations:

Baylor averages 90.3 points per game while holding their opponents to 48.9
UConn averages 87.0 points per game while holding their opponents to 49.7
Baylor's scoring margin is 41.7
UConn's scoring margin is 37.3
Baylor shoots 28 for 98 from three for a .286 percentage from three (3.5/game)
UConn shoots 37 for 111 from three for a .333 percentage from three (6.2/game)
Baylor shoots .504 from the floor
UConn shoots .537 from the floor
Baylor shoots 126 for 184 from the line for a .685 average
UConn shoots 75 for 111 from the line for a .676 average
Baylor gets 53.1 rebounds per game
UConn gets 45.5 rebounds per game
Baylor gets 26.1 assists per game
UConn gets 22.7 assists per game
Baylor turns the ball over 16.8 times for a 1.6 Assist / TO ratio (points off turnovers 27)
UConn turns the ball over 15.7 times for a 1.4 Assist / TO ratio (points off turnovers 24)
Baylor gets 13.1 steals per game
UConn gets 10.3 steals per game
Baylor gets 5.3 blocks per game
UConn gets 5.2 blocks per game

Baylor's advantages are lots of seniors and junior leadership; Baylor gets to the line more often than UConn; Baylor plays an aggressive defense getting steals and causing turnovers only a little better than UConn.

UConn's advantages: They are a little better shooting team, they hit more 3s per game, they take care of the basketball a little better than Baylor.

This game will come down to match-ups. While Baylor is more mature with more seniors and juniors than UConn. UConn is extremely talented. I do not agree that the game plan posted earlier for beating UConn is as easily achievable as the poster seem to indicate. I believe game plans are good and necessary but the match-ups and the individual performances that day are the "x" factor. Who will step up for UConn will Christyn Williams have a record day? Will Aubrey Griffin find her stride? Will Olivia stay out of foul trouble and prove she belongs in the conversation for one of the best bigs in the country? Will Evina show why she was so successful in Tennessee? Will Paige Buekers prove why she was number one coming out of high school or will she get nervous on the big stage and suddenly remember that she is only a freshman? Will Makurat find her 3 point shot? And will Aaliyah Edwards continue to impress? There are a lot of variables here that make the aforementioned game plan more difficult than it appears.

Keep in mind Baylor heretofore has successfully spread the minutes out among 11 players, which they can do with such a heavily laden upper classmen team while UConn because of their youth has concentrated the minutes among 8 players. I don't expect to see Baylor continue to spread the minutes in this game they will shorten their bench and give more minutes to their producers. It should be noted that Carrington is only 10 for 36 from 3 point land.

Olivia Nelson-Ododo vs Queen Egbo...this will be a great match-up and I think if Olivia can stay out of foul trouble she can win this match-up...slight ADVANTAGE UCONN

Anne Makurat vs NaLyssa Smith - I think NaLyssa Smith is too athletic for Anne and either Aubrey or Aaliyah will need to be called in. ADVANTAGE BAYLOR

Evina Westbrook vs Di Di Richards - this will be a great match-up as well. I think this match-up will be somewhat EVEN

Paige Buekers vs Ursin Moon - Here we have a Senior vs a Freshman...I look look for Ursin to cause problems for Paige and hopefully Paige can stay out of foul trouble. But, at the end of the day Paige will be Paige. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Christyn Williams vs Caitlin Bickle - I am looking for Christyn to have a big game she will show why she was number one coming out of high school. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Bench - Baylor's bench is much deeper than UConn's - Big ADVANTAGE FOR BAYLOR

I think UConn will win this game 81 to 77

I feel so bad you put so much work in just before the cancellation.

 

[triaddukefan]

Baylor 0 UCONN 0

 

[cferraro04]

I feel so bad you put so much work in just before the cancellation.

Thanks, but, it is alright...I actually use it as tutorial for myself to learn about the other team and how I think it might match up with UConn. While I am compiling data for myself, I just organized it and put it out there. What is disappointing is I always look forward to comments from others to either validate my findings or show me where I am in error. After all, it is a learning experience. And, now that the game isn't going to be played...I sort of had my own virtual game...

 

[eebmg]

Baylor 0 UCONN 0

UCONN 1 Baylor 0. Forfeit.

 

[cferraro04]

UCONN 1 Baylor 0. Forfeit.

UConn 0, Baylor 0, COVID 1

 

[Skeets]

Baylor 0 UCONN 0

You win. You beat me to it...