Predictions for Big Sunday (Dec 2)

[Fightin Choke]

ND rolling over Iowa (who?) has had an effect. Massey now sayeth: UConn by 5 (again) with a 62% probability. 79-74

You shouldn't use the match-up feature on Massey unless you set it up that Notre Dame is the home team. If you look at the "Predictions" for Sunday, you'd see that UConn is only a 2-point favorite (54% probability). You should also consider that Massey is still using data from last season in making these predictions, and UConn has lost Gabby, Kia, and Azura and Notre Dame has picked up Turner and Vaughn (but lost Westbeld). (Of course UConn also picked up Chrystyn and ONO.) Thus Massey's prediction biased towards UConn.

 

[Fightin Choke]

1. UConn 99 vs Depaul 66 = 36 point difference
Notre Dame 101 vs Depaul 77 = 24 point difference
That’s +12 points for UConn

2. First Quarter scores: UConn 32 vs Depaul 15
Depaul 29 vs Notre Dame 22!!!
I submit that Muffet HAD to replace her slower starters with Prohaska and
Patterson so her team could catch up to and pass the Depaul players!

I am confidant that UConns starters could play 40 minutes and still outrun Muffet’s entire eight person rotation(assuming Mabrey plays) by a mile. But I do believe Geno will use Combs and ONO judiciously to leave them all on their knees at mid-court gasping for breath.

Your confidence is admirable, but your analysis lacks rigor. If you want to use the DePaul games employing the common opponent theory (which is fine), you also need to account for the venue. DePaul visited UConn but hosted Notre Dame. Home court advantage is about 3 points, so that negates half of the difference between ND@DePaul and DePaul@UConn games, i.e., it's as if ND was 27 points better than DePaul while UConn was 33 points better than DePaul. ND also played without Mabrey and used it's bench players more against DePaul, as noted by @dcfan.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

You shouldn't use the match-up feature on Massey unless you set it up that Notre Dame is the home team. If you look at the "Predictions" for Sunday, you'd see that UConn is only a 2-point favorite (54% probability). You should also consider that Massey is still using data from last season in making these predictions, and UConn has lost Gabby, Kia, and Azura and Notre Dame has picked up Turner and Vaughn (but lost Westbeld). (Of course UConn also picked up Chrystyn and ONO.) Thus Massey's prediction biased towards UConn.

Thanks for the home team tip. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the data base at this time of the year is pretty thin so I'm not holding my breath one way or the other.

 

[MSGRET]

Uconn 89 ND 83

 

[Tonyc]

UConn 73 ND 67 UConns quickness beats NDs height and lack of a true point guard

 

[VaConnFan11]

Notre Dame 84-74

 

[Rixxx]

As I have said earlier, you can't forget about Jackie Young.

 

[ochoopsfan]

UConn 72-68

 

[Scud49]

I'm going with UCONN by 64-61

 

[UConnCat]

Can’t wait to see Lou and Mabrey go out at. Always exchanging words and Mabrey always seems to get under her skin while Lou has her hands up the refs

LOL I think we've all seen quite the opposite, e.g, Mabrey whining to the refs so much that Pheesa had to take the ball from her last year, or who will ever forget Mabrey's reaction to MoJeff's defense a few years back.

When it comes to Mabrey, so many "just hating on her excellence."

 

[UConnCat]

The better comparison is the results of the DePaul game. Both teams blew DePaul out of the water, but ND did it on the road without Mabrey and with its starting five (including Nixon) only averaging 27.6 minutes. UConn had all of its starters on hand and they averaged 32.8 minutes in the win. Does not bode well for UConn . . .

Talk about an analysis that lacks rigor. As we learned last year, every game is different.

Both UConn and ND played DePaul last year. UConn won by 34 points at DePaul while ND won by 9 at home. UConn's starters averaged 28.4 minutes while ND's starters averaged 31.8 minutes. When all was said and done, how those games played out mattered not at all.

I have no idea who will win tomorrow's game. My only hope is that UConn competes hard, plays well, and leaves South Bend believing they can beat them later in the year on a neutral court when more is at stake. That's exactly what ND took away from last year's December game.

As Geno said in 2013 after UConn defeated ND in the FF after losing 3 straight earlier in the season, the beauty of the NCAA tournament is that on just one night you need to be better than the other team. Miss State and ND proved that the past 2 years.

 

[Go/huskies]

I think Uconn vs ND will be a close game then Uconn will pull away late and win by 10.

Miss st could very well blow out the long horns, Texas hasn’t been that impressive this season, recently lost there best player and Collier has been a fouling machine, I’m going with St in this one.

Unlike OSU who has good guards Baylor has a strong inside game with spotty guard play, I think the group of guards for SC is better and Kim’s teams don’t respond well early on to teams that challenge them, I expect this to be a ugly low scoring game with SC wining by single digits.

 

[Bigpetunia]

Granted, whenever the two best programs in the game face off, it's a pretty big event, but, irrespective of the outcome, this is not a game freighted with all that much meaning. I expect UConn to eke it out in a close one, but whether they do or not really isn't terribly important at this stage of the season, just as UConn's victory at the XL last year certainly wasn't. Much more important from a UConn perspective than winning or losing tomorrow is the quality of performance generated by Megan and Chrystyn. Both teams, barring injury, will be better in March than they are now. But UConn's potential for improvement is the greater of the two, depending on the direction the two newcomers to the starting lineup make. In that regard, I'm highly optimistic!

 

[VAMike23]

Your confidence is admirable, but your analysis lacks rigor. [/USER].

I feel like I've heard that line before, usually directed at McCoy ... .

 

[toadfoot]

While I believe ND has the edge due to home court and superior depth just can’t pick against the Huskies... UConn 85-82

 

[bantamlaker]

ND 90 UConn 82.
However, what I’m hoping for (and believe is entirely possible) is that our two super seniors have big games and we come away with a nice win.

 

[WNBA 09]

ND 85
UCONN 71

 

[Carnac]

Notre Dame is the #1 ranked team in the country, and the best team UConn will play all year. ND already knows what kind of team they have. Tomorrow UConn finds out what kind of team they have.

 

[msugrad00]

Just finished watching the MSU/Notre Dame game again and it's still amazing how in control MSU was in that game. Big T had those Notre Dame players intimidated big time and when they put the backcourt of Jaz and Danberry in the game their defense was in lockdown mode. Notre Dame was gritty and fought back but there is no question that MSU should have won their first national championship in that freakin game. This year's team is down right scary. Jaz and Danberry have been even better defensively and when they bring in AEH and Myah Taylor off the bench they show why they were 5 star recruits and legends in high school. Howard has been better than advertised and Bibby's jump shot is money. Vic has been allowed to bring both freshmen Wiggins and Jessika Carter along slowly and not rush them but both are going to be excellent players for MSU before it's all said and done. Also doesn't hurt they every player on MSU is down right gorgeous

 

[SimpleDawg]

Just finished watching the MSU/Notre Dame game again and it's still amazing how in control MSU was in that game. Big T had those Notre Dame players intimidated big time and when they put the backcourt of Jaz and Danberry in the game their defense was in lockdown mode. Notre Dame was gritty and fought back but there is no question that MSU should have won their first national championship in that freakin game. This year's team is down right scary. Jaz and Danberry have been even better defensively and when they bring in AEH and Myah Taylor off the bench they show why they were 5 star recruits and legends in high school. Howard has been better than advertised and Bibby's jump shot is money. Vic has been allowed to bring both freshmen Wiggins and Jessika Carter along slowly and not rush them but both are going to be excellent players for MSU before it's all said and done. Also doesn't hurt they every player on MSU is down right gorgeous

I rewatched that game again recently as well. I think the game was lost on a couple of things it basically came down to.

1) Vic always feels the need to have his entire starting lineup in the game at the start of the 3rd quarter. Like what the hell does that matter anyways? Danberry and Holmes were hot in the 2nd quarter playing some of the best defense of anyone the whole year, so keep them in the game at the start of the 3rd quarter.

2) He takes McCowan out with 1:45 minutes in the 3rd quarter and Notre Dame goes on a 6-0 run to end the quarter with only 1:45 left to play. I understand McCowan was in foul trouble, but Vic puts her back in immediately in the start of the 4th quarter. He clearly puts people in and out according to quarters, and that's just something stupid I never understood. Especially since he needed to take a small chance in a game like this. It still angers me 8 months later that we lost a game that we had.

Though with that said, we definitely needed the offense of Morgan William in the game at times, and McCowan's defense, blocked shots, and position under the goal was what kept them to 61 points, though she missed too many easy shots that game, and hurt us.

Chloe Bibby is my pick for one of the most attractive in the game currently, though I'm quite partial to Nepheesa Collier and Lexie Brown too.


...

 

[Grad1990]

UConn by 10+.

Tuesday the polls will have UConn ranked number one (although one or two goofballs will probably rank Oregon 1st), the world will be right again, and anyone thinking UConn wouldn't win will shed their self inflicted delusion.

UConn is the best team. The road to the championship goes through them.

 

[JonathanXIV]

This year's team is down right scary.

Wait until you actually play someone before concluding that MSU is "downright scary."

 

[dcfan]

UConn by 10+.

Tuesday the polls will have UConn ranked number one (although one or two goofballs will probably rank Oregon 1st), the world will be right again, and anyone thinking UConn wouldn't win will shed their self inflicted delusion.

UConn is the best team. The road to the championship goes through them.

Right. That's why all five ND starters are on the Wooden Award list.

 

[mbr33ct]

My heart says go with UConn to win, but common sense does not dictate they will win.

ND has all the pieces back from last year NC plus Turner while UConn lost three to the WNBA draft. (#4 Williams, #6 Stevens and #10 Nurse)...and did I mention ND is playing home?

From last years game, UConn scored 89 points...46% of them (41 pts) came from the departed players. Frankly if UConn stays within 10 points I would call it a good game for them.

 

[MSUFan2003]

Just finished watching the MSU/Notre Dame game again and it's still amazing how in control MSU was in that game. Big T had those Notre Dame players intimidated big time and when they put the backcourt of Jaz and Danberry in the game their defense was in lockdown mode. Notre Dame was gritty and fought back but there is no question that MSU should have won their first national championship in that freakin game. This year's team is down right scary. Jaz and Danberry have been even better defensively and when they bring in AEH and Myah Taylor off the bench they show why they were 5 star recruits and legends in high school. Howard has been better than advertised and Bibby's jump shot is money. Vic has been allowed to bring both freshmen Wiggins and Jessika Carter along slowly and not rush them but both are going to be excellent players for MSU before it's all said and done. Also doesn't hurt they every player on MSU is down right gorgeous

Taylor isn't ready to play real competition IMO. Her ATO ratio is one of the worst in the county. She's a freshman that is still learning, but she's clearly a freshman. I can't see her being able to compete against a ND or UConn at this point. I think it would be a rude awakening.

Bibby and Howard have been good surprises. Bibby really has come on strong and improved her game. Carter is doing well, but we'll see how she does against real competition. I gotta see them play this December schedule before I know what they can be. They have been much better offensively than I anticipated though.