Pre Season Top 10

[Vowelguy]

Except for the fact that you are using a sample of three games from the NCAA Tournament as a basis to overcome the entire season, most of which was played with Davis. Every team can get hot. By the same token, people are crucifying Delaware for one bad game.

If you want a cautionary tale about not overrating the NCAA Tournament and performances there, see Joe Alexander.

They could be a top ten team. They could also be out of the top 25.

True on Kansas. I've wondered if I've rated them too highly given their regular season performance. But you don't tend to hear a lot about women's teams getting hot and making a run -- usually because the gap between teams is so large that it doesnt matter. Maybe they were underperforming though and the Davis injury woke them up?

I disagree on DE. If they're not judged on that game, what are they to be judged on? The 20 wins they had against truly crappy teams? They played few quality programs, so the game against KS carries more weight.

 

[EricSD]

True on Kansas. I've wondered if I've rated them too highly given their regular season performance. But you don't tend to hear a lot about women's teams getting hot and making a run -- usually because the gap between teams is so large that it doesnt matter. Maybe they were underperforming though and the Davis injury woke them up?

I disagree on DE. If they're not judged on that game, what are they to be judged on? The 20 wins they had against truly crappy teams? They played few quality programs, so the game against KS carries more weight.

i tend to agree. after all, pre season polls are just that - preseason polls. Tennessee was ranked #2 preseason last year IIRC, and for a good reason. they were a senior heavy team filled with HS AA's on the roster. many expected Baugh, Johnson, Stricklen, and Manning to lead them to the NC game. all they were missing was an elite PG, which they apparently landed in Massengale.

Flash forward to the end of the regular season - 8 losses, and time spent ranked outside the top 10. by the end of the year, they proved they were indeed a top 8 team, but no better than that. so based on Kansas' run thru the NCAA's, and who they bring back next year, why not preseason rank them about 10? they certainly gelled by the end of the year. they gave Tennessee a good game leading at half and falling by 11. and they lose no seniors to graduation while adding some depth to the roster.

my point is that preseason polls don't try to predict where teams will end up in April. only where they are before the season even starts. all we can do is look at who comes back for teams, who they lose, and where they ended the season the previous year.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Kansas will have Angel Goodrich and probably Carolyn Davis next year. IMO, they will be to 10 and may finish 2nd or 3rd in the Big 12. I guess only time will tell.

But that is my point. For most of the year, they had both players and underachieved. Three games in March does not change that...yet.

 

[triaddukefan]

any updated thoughts?

 

[Outside Shot]

Duke's best team since Harding/Currie/Bales et al years. Although Duke has had future pros on seemingly every roster in recent memory. Big picture, they've done remarkably well the past decade or so. I like Williams a lot. Gray can be special if she decides to be. Can't ask for much more from Liston and Peters.

I still like Notre Dame a lot, because they will have a dominant perimeter and point guard. Achonwa seemed to emerge last season. Will they miss Jonathan Tsipis on the bench? Having Diggins run the offense makes coaching a lot easier.

Kentucky has a lot of parts if they can make them all fit. They've always been a seemingly more guard oriented team. How will Stallworth work in the mix?

Delaware will be in the Top 10 heading into the NCAA Tournament. Delle Donne is good enough to beat a lot of teams when she gets rolling.

One team not listed that I think has a chance to have a strong year is Nebraska. They return about everybody and had two stars that led the way.

Texas A&M also intrigues me. Can Kelsey Bone become a consistent, dominant player for them? She's got the size and the tools.

Stanford seems vulnerable to me, but will still be good. On paper this Stanford team returns less than any I can remember in a while.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

I still like Notre Dame a lot, because they will have a dominant perimeter and point guard. Achonwa seemed to emerge last season. Will they miss Jonathan Tsipis on the bench? Having Diggins run the offense makes coaching a lot easier.

I still think Notre Dame will struggle in the post. Losing Malina Howard to Maryland really hurts in this regard. Muffet's teams are always well coached, compete hard, and usually overachieve relative to seed and expectations in the NCAA Tournament, but I see the Irish struggling early.

 

[Wonkster]

Not true. This is Seven of Nine.

I'm now a lifelong Jeri Ryan fan - she didn't know anything about Star Drek before she got the part, which to me is a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence no matter what planet she's from.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Del too high for me. After the KS game, a lot to prove about just how good they are.

And a long wait to prove it.,..

 

[OneTrickPony]

I'm now a lifelong Jeri Ryan fan - she didn't know anything about Star Drek before she got the part, which to me is a sign of extraterrestrial intelligence no matter what planet she's from.

She has the added notoriety of having her divorce become a pivotal event in Barack Obama's rapid rise...

 

[Wonkster]

I still think Notre Dame will struggle in the post. Losing Malina Howard to Maryland really hurts in this regard. Muffet's teams are always well coached, compete hard, and usually overachieve relative to seed and expectations in the NCAA Tournament, but I see the Irish struggling early.

Yes. From UConn's point of view, Howard's choosing Maryland over ND almost makes up for the class of 2005 fiasco.

 

[msf22b]

Hasn't anyone noticed that this ranking is seriously dated ??? and may not reflect anyone's opinion at this time.

Remember that last pugnacious thread in which everyone promised to carefully read the material (maybe not, but it was discussed and implied).

The SI article notes Griner's Gold medal Olympic experience as a contributing factor in her improved performance this upcoming season. Huh?

It also omits the emergence of a certain Ms Tuck on a team that I've heard of, who will among other things, be a defensive buzz-saw.

I'm sure everyone will be happy to know that I will be leaving for China tomorrow afternoon and may be absent w/o leave from the board for three months!

I for one will sincerely miss our amiable discussions

Cheers
Michael

 

[doggydaddy]

Hasn't anyone noticed that this ranking is seriously dated ??? and may not reflect anyone's opinion at this time.

Remember that last pugnacious thread in which everyone promised to carefully read the material (maybe not, but it was discussed and implied).

The SI article notes Griner's Gold medal Olympic experience as a contributing factor in her improved performance this upcoming season. Huh?

It also omits the emergence of a certain Ms Tuck on a team that I've heard of, who will among other things, be a defensive buzz-saw.

I'm sure everyone will be happy to know that I will be leaving for China tomorrow afternoon and may be absent w/o leave from the board for three months!

I for one will sincerely miss our amiable discussions

Cheers
Michael

The first post in the renewal of this thread

"any updated thoughts?"

So, I would guess that EVERYONE knew this was from an older article.

Have a safe trip.

 

[msf22b]

Thanks Doggy
UConn/Baylor co-one.

 

[ASweet3781]

I'd go with:

1. Baylor
2. UConn
3. Duke
4. Kentucky
5. Notre Dame
6. Stanford
7. Louisville
8. Maryland
9. Penn State
10. Cal
11. West Virginia
12. Tennessee
13. Kansas
14. Delaware
15. Vanderbilt
16. Nebraska
17. Georgia
18. Texas A&M
19. Gonzaga
20. Rutgers

ND and Stanford lost a lot but I respect them far more than a Maryland for 4 reasons 1. Muffett 2. Skylar 3. Tara 4. Chiney. Those programs know how to win. I'll never buy the Maryland hype again after their pathetic performance against ND in the Elite 8. People say Baylor and UConn will be 1a and 1b and I agree. I also think Duke and Kentucky will be 2a and 2b. If Kentucky can find some consistency I like who they have back. They impressed me in the Elite 8. Penn State and Cal should be ready to make jumps into the top 10 after strong NCAA showings. Agree, Delaware a top 15 team but they have a lot to prove after the Kansas game.

 

[cardfan]

Duke's best team since Harding/Currie/Bales et al years. Although Duke has had future pros on seemingly every roster in recent memory. Big picture, they've done remarkably well the past decade or so. I like Williams a lot. Gray can be special if she decides to be. Can't ask for much more from Liston and Peters.

I still like Notre Dame a lot, because they will have a dominant perimeter and point guard. Achonwa seemed to emerge last season. Will they miss Jonathan Tsipis on the bench? Having Diggins run the offense makes coaching a lot easier.

Kentucky has a lot of parts if they can make them all fit. They've always been a seemingly more guard oriented team. How will Stallworth work in the mix?

Delaware will be in the Top 10 heading into the NCAA Tournament. Delle Donne is good enough to beat a lot of teams when she gets rolling.

One team not listed that I think has a chance to have a strong year is Nebraska. They return about everybody and had two stars that led the way.

Texas A&M also intrigues me. Can Kelsey Bone become a consistent, dominant player for them? She's got the size and the tools.

Stanford seems vulnerable to me, but will still be good. On paper this Stanford team returns less than any I can remember in a while.

Obviously losing Nneka is huge, but we add 3 frosh; and we get Camp, Green and Ruef back after injuries. We will be quicker and a better outside shooting team. Also look for Chiney to have break out year, like she did in h.s after Nneka graduated. Playing Baylor in HI in Nov. will be interesting. Cal will be a big challenge as I'm not sure we'll have the size to handle their bigs.

 

[Man-Man]

Personally I have an issue with Deleware in the top 10. EDD is an obvious talent but no matter how you slice it, she is just one player. They play a cupcake schedule lose to UMD by double digits and then get a high seed in the NCAA and lose to a mediocre team. This may sound like I'm talking about last year but I'm speaking of the upcoming season.

 

[Vowelguy]

Sticking with my original top 20... (color coded by conference)

1-5: Baylor, UConn, Duke, Kentucky, Maryland
6-10: Stan, ND, Lou, PennSt, Vandy
11-15: Cal, Kan, Ga, Nebr, Okla
16-20: Del, WV, Tenn, SJ, Rutgers

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/pre-season-top-10.17585/page-5

 

[easttexastrash]

Del too high for me. After the KS game, a lot to prove about just how good they are.

Kansas gets Davis back this year and I believe they are headed for top 10 status. They also have one of the best point guards in the nation in Angel Goodrich.

 

[easttexastrash]

I find little to argue with about that, but given that Kansas returns all their 5 starters, and is essentially the same starting team who ran Delaware off the court, i'd put them at 10 ahead of Delaware. other than that, tho, a solid list that coincides with what a lot of us on the BY were probably thinking. when was the last time Tennessee started the year outside the top 10? i'm not sure they will be down at 18 like one of the intrepid BY'ers thought, but i'd say 14 or so...

I agree, Eric. How can Kansas have kicked DE's butt and be ranked behind them?

 

[doggydaddy]

Kansas gets Davis back this year and I believe they are headed for top 10 status. They also have one of the best point guards in the nation in Angel Goodrich.

ETT, who do you see in your conference giving Baylor their toughest game(s)?

 

[easttexastrash]

ETT, who do you see in your conference giving Baylor their toughest game(s)?

Other than Kansas, Baylor may not have a tough game in conference. However, for some reason, Texas Tech in Lubbock is always a tough game. That is an incredibly hostile crowd that has an impact on the team.

It will be interesting to see what Texas brings to the table with Stafford and Reed on the floor together. I think that Texas has the potential to be top 20 if Stafford can have an impact. They actually have a nice core of guards.

I suspect that both UCONN and Baylor will go through conference play with little resistance. Both are going to be very deep teams that can press the entire game if they want. It will be like watching the Olympic team, which just wore down its opponents with depth.

 

[Vowelguy]

Other than Kansas, Baylor may not have a tough game in conference. However, for some reason, Texas Tech in Lubbock is always a tough game. That is an incredibly hostile crowd that has an impact on the team.

Do you have to go to Morgantown? That's an interesting place, and the Eers should be good.

 

[triaddukefan]

One team not listed that I think has a chance to have a strong year is Nebraska. They return about everybody and had two stars that led the way.
.

We will have a chance to see how good they are very early in the season. They host Maryland in the ACC-Big 10 challenge.

Do you have to go to Morgantown? That's an interesting place, and the Eers should be good.

Actually I think that would be Baylor's toughest conference game. They have size to match up with Griner..... are a tough defensive squad... and Im sure they would have a large and raucous crowd in attendance in Morgantown.

 

[pksundevil]

Personally I have an issue with Deleware in the top 10. EDD is an obvious talent but no matter how you slice it, she is just one player. They play a cupcake schedule lose to UMD by double digits and then get a high seed in the NCAA and lose to a mediocre team. This may sound like I'm talking about last year but I'm speaking of the upcoming season.

It was a 9-point loss on the road last season, and Delaware led early in the second half and was still within 6 with under 4 minutes to go. You think it'll be worse this year? Last year they played the schedule they played, and beat Penn State by 9 (a team that keeps getting put into the top 10 on prior posts on this thread), pounded St. Bona on the road, beat Princeton on the road, beat a 20-win Wake Forest team on the road... it'll be the same again this year: they play MD, Bona, St. John's, probably Georgetown in the 2nd round of the WNIT... but they will be considered "untested" until the NCAAs and even there the first 2 games will be at home.

I think they beat UMD at home this year. 5 returning starters for UD and a sold-out home crowd, plus the knowledge that game will be the best shot to justify a high seed.

 

[asuwish]

Whether Kansas belongs in the top 10 is debatable, but I agree that
they showed that Delaware doesn't belong there.

Delaware will be a solid top 25 team and a lock for the Colonial
title, but they don't have enough talent surrounding EDD to compete
with the top teams.

Deleware will be in the top ten because they don't play anyone and as everyone else is knocking each other off they will move up. They are a capable team so lets see if a second year in the spotlight makes it easier for them to handle the pressure or with a target on their back get knock down.

 

[Vowelguy]

Deleware will be in the top ten because they don't play anyone and as everyone else is knocking each other off they will move up.

Only if you have idiot voters who subscribe to the lazy/dumb "win move up, lose move down" policy. An informed voter will not reward non-quality wins nor punish quality losses.

 

[Phil]

Do you have to go to Morgantown? That's an interesting place, and the Eers should be good.

I don't expect a win, but I'm thinking of going to this game

 

[alexrgct]

Delaware is a team that obviously relies heavily on one player to perform at a high level night in and night out. The problem they face is that good teams can make her work enough for her points to win the game, which is precisely what Kansas (not an especially good team) did in the tourney. If they played in a power conference or had a tougher OOC schedule, EDD would take some lumps in the regular season but be well prepared for the various ways that teams would try to defend her. As is, they just don't get tested with enough frequency and by good enough players to get materially better over the course of the season. Notwithstanding the early season win over Penn State and the relatively close loss to Maryland, both teams would have torn Delaware apart by season's end barring an absolutely out of this world shooting night for EDD.

It was obvious within 10 minutes of the KU-Delaware game that whoever won stood very little chance of beating Tennessee in the next round. I could see Delaware making the Sweet 16 or maybe even the Elite Eight...but it will take a favorable draw and a bit of luck for the latter to occur. As such, I think 12-14 is a reasonable ranking for them.

 

[Outside Shot]

Delaware is a better team early in the season, because their players have to log heavy minutes over the course of the whole season. I thought they looked like the season had taken it's toll on them by the end of last year.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Not sure whether we should ever give a huge amount of import to the preseason rankings. The top four site's 2010-11 men's rankings for top 25 teams did not have the eventual champion even sniffing in that region or mention them as on the border of the rankings.

The SI ranking here mainly just takes the Sagarin top 12 from last year, tosses out three teams that each lost three or more important starters (UTenn, Miami, Texas A&M), and also moves the top 20 team Louisville into the group with the hopeful return in healthy form of two very important starters and the loss of not much. As CamrnCrz1974 has repeated a number of times, teams are generally ranked based on overall season performance and not on last year's hot NCAAs performance against one or two teams they matched up well with and maybe had home region advantage over, or an expectation of the team repeating it this year. SI's rankings seem reasonable and unsurprising. Couple of points:

• Does anyone expect Delaware to suddenly be able to create a top 30 schedule when it is suddenly thrust into the national limelight because of EDD? College scheduling does not work that way, but the Blue Hens' #79 schedule is pretty close to some teams in the PAC and B10 and actually ahead of a team in the mighty SEC. A team that wins 31 games and has a winning record against top 50 teams generally gets some accolades. EDD is the major force on her team by a wide margin, but she takes less than a third of the shots and collects less than third of the rebounds. Some of her teammates shoot better than 50%, but they didn't in their close season-ending loss out in Little Rock. And as some have said before, Del did have a convincing win over one of those teams projected in the top 10 this season, so they gotta have some cluck in them with all the starters back. But yeah, if they want to be considered genuine top-10 quality, they do need to be a bit better at helping out EDD in crunch time.
• It is a big leap for Louisville from Sags #18 to SI's #4 projection. The key really will be to see whether Reid and Gibbs can return to 2010-11 form after injuries to give Schimmel a real supporting cast. No idea whether that will happen, but until the results on that are in I will refrain from hating on the Cardinals and disparaging everything they did last season with the skeleton crew, which seems to be fashionable nowadays.
• Not sure what to say about Kansas after their all-over-the place enigma of last season. As CC1974 said, the Jayhawks weren't looking great before lead player Davis went out, and finished off the season afterward at 4-7, but scrapped to a big win at OK and the two NCAA victories at Little Rock, including beating Delaware. Hard to say what it adds up to going into 2012-13 with Davis returning but the key post player and dominant post-Davis period player Sutherland now gone.
• St. John's may be a team to watch. They were #17 in Sags last year and have just about everybody back and the top 3 scorers. With all that many of the teams ahead of them lost, they could fit into the top 12.