Pre Season Top 10

[easttexastrash]

ETT, who do you see in your conference giving Baylor their toughest game(s)?

Other than Kansas, Baylor may not have a tough game in conference. However, for some reason, Texas Tech in Lubbock is always a tough game. That is an incredibly hostile crowd that has an impact on the team.

It will be interesting to see what Texas brings to the table with Stafford and Reed on the floor together. I think that Texas has the potential to be top 20 if Stafford can have an impact. They actually have a nice core of guards.

I suspect that both UCONN and Baylor will go through conference play with little resistance. Both are going to be very deep teams that can press the entire game if they want. It will be like watching the Olympic team, which just wore down its opponents with depth.

 

[Vowelguy]

Other than Kansas, Baylor may not have a tough game in conference. However, for some reason, Texas Tech in Lubbock is always a tough game. That is an incredibly hostile crowd that has an impact on the team.

Do you have to go to Morgantown? That's an interesting place, and the Eers should be good.

 

[triaddukefan]

One team not listed that I think has a chance to have a strong year is Nebraska. They return about everybody and had two stars that led the way.
.

We will have a chance to see how good they are very early in the season. They host Maryland in the ACC-Big 10 challenge.

Do you have to go to Morgantown? That's an interesting place, and the Eers should be good.

Actually I think that would be Baylor's toughest conference game. They have size to match up with Griner..... are a tough defensive squad... and Im sure they would have a large and raucous crowd in attendance in Morgantown.

 

[pksundevil]

Personally I have an issue with Deleware in the top 10. EDD is an obvious talent but no matter how you slice it, she is just one player. They play a cupcake schedule lose to UMD by double digits and then get a high seed in the NCAA and lose to a mediocre team. This may sound like I'm talking about last year but I'm speaking of the upcoming season.

It was a 9-point loss on the road last season, and Delaware led early in the second half and was still within 6 with under 4 minutes to go. You think it'll be worse this year? Last year they played the schedule they played, and beat Penn State by 9 (a team that keeps getting put into the top 10 on prior posts on this thread), pounded St. Bona on the road, beat Princeton on the road, beat a 20-win Wake Forest team on the road... it'll be the same again this year: they play MD, Bona, St. John's, probably Georgetown in the 2nd round of the WNIT... but they will be considered "untested" until the NCAAs and even there the first 2 games will be at home.

I think they beat UMD at home this year. 5 returning starters for UD and a sold-out home crowd, plus the knowledge that game will be the best shot to justify a high seed.

 

[asuwish]

Whether Kansas belongs in the top 10 is debatable, but I agree that
they showed that Delaware doesn't belong there.

Delaware will be a solid top 25 team and a lock for the Colonial
title, but they don't have enough talent surrounding EDD to compete
with the top teams.

Deleware will be in the top ten because they don't play anyone and as everyone else is knocking each other off they will move up. They are a capable team so lets see if a second year in the spotlight makes it easier for them to handle the pressure or with a target on their back get knock down.

 

[Vowelguy]

Deleware will be in the top ten because they don't play anyone and as everyone else is knocking each other off they will move up.

Only if you have idiot voters who subscribe to the lazy/dumb "win move up, lose move down" policy. An informed voter will not reward non-quality wins nor punish quality losses.

 

[Phil]

Do you have to go to Morgantown? That's an interesting place, and the Eers should be good.

I don't expect a win, but I'm thinking of going to this game

 

[alexrgct]

Delaware is a team that obviously relies heavily on one player to perform at a high level night in and night out. The problem they face is that good teams can make her work enough for her points to win the game, which is precisely what Kansas (not an especially good team) did in the tourney. If they played in a power conference or had a tougher OOC schedule, EDD would take some lumps in the regular season but be well prepared for the various ways that teams would try to defend her. As is, they just don't get tested with enough frequency and by good enough players to get materially better over the course of the season. Notwithstanding the early season win over Penn State and the relatively close loss to Maryland, both teams would have torn Delaware apart by season's end barring an absolutely out of this world shooting night for EDD.

It was obvious within 10 minutes of the KU-Delaware game that whoever won stood very little chance of beating Tennessee in the next round. I could see Delaware making the Sweet 16 or maybe even the Elite Eight...but it will take a favorable draw and a bit of luck for the latter to occur. As such, I think 12-14 is a reasonable ranking for them.

 

[Outside Shot]

Delaware is a better team early in the season, because their players have to log heavy minutes over the course of the whole season. I thought they looked like the season had taken it's toll on them by the end of last year.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Not sure whether we should ever give a huge amount of import to the preseason rankings. The top four site's 2010-11 men's rankings for top 25 teams did not have the eventual champion even sniffing in that region or mention them as on the border of the rankings.

The SI ranking here mainly just takes the Sagarin top 12 from last year, tosses out three teams that each lost three or more important starters (UTenn, Miami, Texas A&M), and also moves the top 20 team Louisville into the group with the hopeful return in healthy form of two very important starters and the loss of not much. As CamrnCrz1974 has repeated a number of times, teams are generally ranked based on overall season performance and not on last year's hot NCAAs performance against one or two teams they matched up well with and maybe had home region advantage over, or an expectation of the team repeating it this year. SI's rankings seem reasonable and unsurprising. Couple of points:

• Does anyone expect Delaware to suddenly be able to create a top 30 schedule when it is suddenly thrust into the national limelight because of EDD? College scheduling does not work that way, but the Blue Hens' #79 schedule is pretty close to some teams in the PAC and B10 and actually ahead of a team in the mighty SEC. A team that wins 31 games and has a winning record against top 50 teams generally gets some accolades. EDD is the major force on her team by a wide margin, but she takes less than a third of the shots and collects less than third of the rebounds. Some of her teammates shoot better than 50%, but they didn't in their close season-ending loss out in Little Rock. And as some have said before, Del did have a convincing win over one of those teams projected in the top 10 this season, so they gotta have some cluck in them with all the starters back. But yeah, if they want to be considered genuine top-10 quality, they do need to be a bit better at helping out EDD in crunch time.
• It is a big leap for Louisville from Sags #18 to SI's #4 projection. The key really will be to see whether Reid and Gibbs can return to 2010-11 form after injuries to give Schimmel a real supporting cast. No idea whether that will happen, but until the results on that are in I will refrain from hating on the Cardinals and disparaging everything they did last season with the skeleton crew, which seems to be fashionable nowadays.
• Not sure what to say about Kansas after their all-over-the place enigma of last season. As CC1974 said, the Jayhawks weren't looking great before lead player Davis went out, and finished off the season afterward at 4-7, but scrapped to a big win at OK and the two NCAA victories at Little Rock, including beating Delaware. Hard to say what it adds up to going into 2012-13 with Davis returning but the key post player and dominant post-Davis period player Sutherland now gone.
• St. John's may be a team to watch. They were #17 in Sags last year and have just about everybody back and the top 3 scorers. With all that many of the teams ahead of them lost, they could fit into the top 12.

 

[Vowelguy]

St. John's [has] ... just about everybody back and the top 3 scorers.

Everybody ... except their coach. That's their key wildcard.

 

[alexrgct]

It's an odd leap to go from pointing out that Delaware's schedule hurts them to thinking that means there was something they should have done in terms of scheduling that they didn't. It's a statement of fact, not a judgement. Their schedule is a joke and doesn't make them better, especially as you approach the business end of the season. Kansas, a middling team, had absolutely no fear of Delaware. That says a lot.

A top 10 team expects to make the Sweet 16 and aspires to make the Elite Eight. Those teams falling into that category have a better schedule than the Blue Hens, and it makes it tough for Delaware to break through.

Also not sure how men's preseason rankings apply to the women's game. WCBB tends to stick reasonably close to the script. There may be a surprise or two and a disappointment or two, but things rarely play out that shockingly.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

It's an odd leap to go from pointing out that Delaware's schedule hurts them to thinking that means there was something they should have done in terms of scheduling that they didn't. It's a statement of fact, not a judgement. Their schedule is a joke and doesn't make them better, especially as you approach the business end of the season. Kansas, a middling team, had absolutely no fear of Delaware. That says a lot.

A top 10 team expects to make the Sweet 16 and aspires to make the Elite Eight. Those teams falling into that category have a better schedule than the Blue Hens, and it makes it tough for Delaware to break through.

There are some aspects of this thread that are all over the place. To be blunt - Deleware is unlikely to be breaking through anywhere. They are likely to have a good season. The better teams on their schedule - obviously OOC - are about as stiff as some exceptionally good teams schedule OOC. Make no mistake, UConn consistently has a high SOS because they do play a number of good teams. The average # of major conference teams (not necessarily good ones) that most teams play OOC is 2, maybe 3. Deleware's conference is good enough that they have to play decent ball, but their St. John's, Georgetown and MD games mentioned above will be their best games. They certainly have the potential to be top 10 this season, not so much afterword.

As to Kansas - I like the coach, but that team has classically under-achieved. Historically, they play a cup-cake OOC and take their lumps in the Big 12. A Sweet 16 for either Deleware or Kansas will be success in my opinion. Baring injuries, I give Deleware a better shot at the elite 8 than the Jayhawks. JMHO.

 

[DobbsRover2]

It's an odd leap to go from pointing out that Delaware's schedule hurts them to thinking that means there was something they should have done in terms of scheduling that they didn't. It's a statement of fact, not a judgement. Their schedule is a joke and doesn't make them better, especially as you approach the business end of the season. Kansas, a middling team, had absolutely no fear of Delaware. That says a lot.

A top 10 team expects to make the Sweet 16 and aspires to make the Elite Eight. Those teams falling into that category have a better schedule than the Blue Hens, and it makes it tough for Delaware to break through.

Also not sure how men's preseason rankings apply to the women's game. WCBB tends to stick reasonably close to the script. There may be a surprise or two and a disappointment or two, but things rarely play out that shockingly.

UTenn fans used to say how much UConn's "cupcake" schedule back in the early 2000s hurt them. Guess so. If Blue Hens get a few games in against decently strong teams (MD, St.John's, maybe St. Bonny), they can make it work in the NCAAs.

And of course men's preseason rankings have nothing to do with women's rankings, which have to run true to form. Except when they don't. With just the teams in the NC's here's the list of those non-sure thing candidates in last 8 years:

• 2010-11: ND listed at #12, Texas A&M at #8
• 2008-09: Louisville at #9 - #10
• 2005-06: Baylor at #8, Michigan State at #15
• 2004-05: Maryland #14

So yeah, preseason rankings even for WCBB are not things I'd wager my collection of Husky jerseys on. Not sure what you consider to be a surprise, but if I was told that any of the teams not ranked in the top 10, maybe even the top 6, would be in the NC game of the "reasonably close to script" WCBB, I would be amazed. And this in a sport where the UConns, UTenns, and Stanfords seem to make everything patty cake simple. Nope, no surprises in WCBB. How far up does your "reasonable" extend? #14 and #15?

 

[Vowelguy]

It's an odd leap to go from pointing out that Delaware's schedule hurts them to thinking that means there was something they should have done in terms of scheduling that they didn't. It's a statement of fact, not a judgement. Their schedule is a joke and doesn't make them better, especially as you approach the business end of the season. Kansas, a middling team, had absolutely no fear of Delaware. That says a lot.

A top 10 team expects to make the Sweet 16 and aspires to make the Elite Eight. Those teams falling into that category have a better schedule than the Blue Hens, and it makes it tough for Delaware to break through.

A weak schedule isnt a problem if you are playing against an external standard, not just your opponent. This is why UConn was able to emerge -- the BigEast was weak for much of the 90s, but Geno always demanded perfection and so the Huskies would blowout inferior teams.
That is not the case with Delaware. And they were not winning impressively -- against a mediocre Colonial Conference, the Hens had a lot of close or average-marging wins. Back when Old Dominion was rolling through the Colonial in the 90s, they were destroying their opponents.

Also not sure how men's preseason rankings apply to the women's game. WCBB tends to stick reasonably close to the script. There may be a surprise or two and a disappointment or two, but things rarely play out that shockingly.

Completely agree. WCBB is still much much less competitive than MCBB.

 

[Outside Shot]

Delaware's schedule is exactly what it should be for Delaware. They are a mid-major team. With schedules made 2 or so years in advance, their schedule looks perfectly reasonable to me. After this season, they'll return to pre-EDD form.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Delaware's schedule is exactly what it should be for Delaware. They are a mid-major team. With schedules made 2 or so years in advance, their schedule looks perfectly reasonable to me. After this season, they'll return to pre-EDD form.

Absolutely. I believe the problem for many posters here is that when mid majors do well with their #70-#79 schedule and reel off 30 wins or so, the pollsters naturally reward them for what they've accomplished. Some fans feel that all the major conference teams that repeatedly do the sub-regional disappearance act in the NCAAs each year still must be tons better than the Delawares simply because they have more grit in the diet, even if they have 12-13 losses. Personally, I like to see the Gonzagas, UWGB, MTSUs, and Delawares get recognition for the good things they do, not just get derided for tough losses 1200 miles from home. I know others feel differently and think the ranking should be up nearer to the SOS. Delaware reminds me of a little mid-major team from SW Mizzoo St back in 2001 who had one superstar player, a terrible SOS, and ran with her all the way to the FF in Jackie's senior year after getting bounced in the first round the year before. Of course, even back in the 2001, there were p0sters saying, "See, Purdue shut down SW Mizz in the FF because you can't just have one player trying to do it all for a team." Guess not.

 

[KnightBridgeAZ]

Absolutely. I believe the problem for many posters here is that when mid majors do well with their #70-#79 schedule and reel off 30 wins or so, the pollsters naturally reward them for what they've accomplished. Some fans feel that all the major conference teams that repeatedly do the sub-regional disappearance act in the NCAAs each year still must be tons better than the Delawares simply because they have more grit in the diet, even if they have 12-13 losses. Personally, I like to see the Gonzagas, UWGB, MTSUs, and Delawares get recognition for the good things they do, not just get derided for tough losses 1200 miles from home. I know others feel differently and think the ranking should be up nearer to the SOS. Delaware reminds me of a little mid-major team from SW Mizzoo St back in 2001 who had one superstar player, a terrible SOS, and ran with her all the way to the FF in Jackie's senior year after getting bounced in the first round the year before. Of course, even back in the 2001, there were p0sters saying, "See, Purdue shut down SW Mizz in the FF because you can't just have one player trying to do it all for a team." Guess not.

Just to be fair - like Deleware, the supporting cast at SWMS filled their roles. Actually they had a second player that was good - not Styles good, but more than respectable. The rest, as I say, filled in and fit in to make them a dangerous team.

That said, they almost went out in the 2nd round at Rutgers. The RU team that year was extremely underachieving - but had a good chance to tie or win the game just before the end and
Tasha Pointer dribbled the ball off her foot and out of bounds. We hated losing to them both because it was home and also because their coach called Rutgers "Friggin NJ" when assigned the region.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Just to be fair - like Deleware, the supporting cast at SWMS filled their roles. Actually they had a second player that was good - not Styles good, but more than respectable. The rest, as I say, filled in and fit in to make them a dangerous team.

That said, they almost went out in the 2nd round at Rutgers. The RU team that year was extremely underachieving - but had a good chance to tie or win the game just before the end and
Tasha Pointer dribbled the ball off her foot and out of bounds. We hated losing to them both because it was home and also because their coach called Rutgers "Friggin NJ" when assigned the region.

Good point about filling the roles. For the Blue Hens the players did mainly fill that role last year while winning 31 games. but a few TOs in an NCAA game can end your season in a close loss rather than a close win. I just think it's a shame that certain pundits than compost a team's whole season as being bad rather than giving them your due. As you point out, SW Mizz had semi-close 7 point wins over Rutgers and 10 point wins over Duke before blowing out Washington in the regional final, but if Jackie like Elena didn't have another player to shoot at 50% level, things could have been different. Many times things revolve around one play, I just don't think you should crap on a team that did real well all season because the last two minutes or so of a game didn't go as hoped. No team is immune to that problem.