Potential UConn seeding

[maxw]

Below is a table that shows the remaining games (including potential conference tournament games) between the top teams that might compete with UConn for 1 and 2 seeds. The arrows point to the home team in the match up, and an oval indicates a potential conference tournament game at a neutral site.

I left out the UConn-South Carolina game, more on that in a moment.

After seeing USC stumble against Iowa, anything is possible for teams not named ND and South Carolina, they may even lose against teams not in this list.

But I assumed that the home teams will win the games in general, with the exception of South Carolina (they'll win anywhere).

I assumed Ohio State and USC will meet in the conference tournament semifinals (in addition to OSU visiting USC in regular season), followed by USC and UCLA in the finals. If USC beats UCLA in the finals (I assumed the opposite in the table predictions), then UCLA will finish 2-2 and USC 4-1.

Similarly, South Carolina and Texas will meet in the finals of their tournament, after Texas beats LSU in the semifinals. (If LSU beats Texas in the conf semifinals, they will end up with a 1-2 record in these games after losing in the finals, and Texas will end up with 0-2.)

If UConn has any hope of getting a 1 seed (or even a 2 seed), they MUST beat Tennessee and play a close game against South Carolina. If they win both games, they are guaranteed to finish top-3 in the tournament ranking/seeding, they will have excellent metrics across the board.

It's highly likely that South Carolina and ND will get the first two 1 seeds. Whoever wins the Big 10 will get the third 1 seed.

There isn't much separating the other teams on this list, at least on paper. UConn must hope to finish in the top-6 in the country if they want to avoid playing South Carolina or ND until the final four. Based on what might happen in the games in the table (see last column for my predictions), there is a good chance that UConn will achieve that.

 

[Vowelguy]

If UConn has any hope of getting a 1 seed (or even a 2 seed), they MUST beat Tennessee and play a close game against South Carolina. If they win both games, they are guaranteed to finish top-3 in the polls.

Where UConn finishes in the polls is irrelevant to its seeding.

USC is more vulnerable after the loss to Iowa, but they did win @ UConn, and with a split of the UCLA games I think they're in.
SC and ND are all but locked in.

 

[Plebe]

I believe SC and ND are the best two teams, but it's far from certain that they'll be the top 2 seeds. UCLA currently has the inside track, and they'll still be top 2 IMO even with a split with USC.

Also, finishing top 6 is no guarantee that we'd avoid the top 2 teams in the Elite 8, since bracketing rules could force a deviation from a true S-curve. For instance, if SC and Texas were overall #2 and #7, one of the other 2 seeds would have to go into SC's regional.

 

[Bone Dog]

I just hope we can hang onto a seed near the bend in the S curve with a loss to SC. Maybe the rules could work in our favor instead of forcing us down.

 

[oldhusky]

I think a 2 seed should be easy if we beat Tennessee and win out in the BE. A 1 seed is still possible but we need some help, but that is quite possible.

Remember that from the top 7 teams that have been there all year, there can be only 4 conference champions, and that is including the BE and Uconn. There are two teams from the Big10 and three from the SEC. From those 5 only two can win their conference. If Notre Dame stumbled in their conference tournament and we didn't, we might move ahead of them, and if UCLA and South Carolina continue to beat up on USC, Texas, and LSU and give them a couple more losses it is possible we could get the 3rd or 4th top seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

. If Notre Dame stumbled in their conference tournament and we didn't, we might move ahead of them,

Wanna bet?

 

[bballnut90]

There isn't much separating the other teams on this list, at least on paper. UConn must hope to finish in the top-6 in the country if they want to avoid playing South Carolina or ND until the final four. Based on what might happen in the games in the table (see last column for my predictions), there is a good chance that UConn will achieve that.

I think this is ultimately far more important than getting a #1 vs a #2 seed. I'd put UCLA in that grouping too, I don't think UCONN has an answer for Betts who is just dominating teams this season. Notre Dame is more beatable but their guard play is just so good and they've added in quality size in Westbeld/Karlen since the first matchup. And South Carolina is the one team I definitely wouldn't want to match up with prior to the final weekend.

I don't think UCONN has a shot to get the last #1 seed unless one of two things happen:
1. UCONN beats South Carolina (unlikely)
2. We see several more upsets similar to Iowa over USC (more likely)

Playing as a 2 seed, the optimal bracket for the Huskies is landing in a regional with USC/LSU/Texas as the #1 seed. USC would be the ideal opponent, as it'd be a revenge matchup and I wouldn't count on Juju playing as well as she did the first time. LSU is also a good matchup for UCONN. LSU has a lethal Big 3, but they're kind of all over the place despite being 23-1. They could easily be 19-5 right now if they don't pull out every close game. Texas is a tough matchup on paper with their size, but their bigs seem to struggle going up against better players, they're heavily reliant on Madison Booker in big games and they've also just lost a key starter in Aaliyah Moore who is out for an unknown amount of time. If I'm UCONN, I'd rather be a 3 or even 4 seed playing one of these teams than be a 2 seed and facing South Carolina, Notre Dame or UCLA.

 

[bballnut90]

I think a 2 seed should be easy if we beat Tennessee and win out in the BE. A 1 seed is still possible but we need some help, but that is quite possible.

Remember that from the top 7 teams that have been there all year, there can be only 4 conference champions, and that is including the BE and Uconn. There are two teams from the Big10 and three from the SEC. From those 5 only two can win their conference. If Notre Dame stumbled in their conference tournament and we didn't, we might move ahead of them, and if UCLA and South Carolina continue to beat up on USC, Texas, and LSU and give them a couple more losses it is possible we could get the 3rd or 4th top seed.

Agree with the top statement.

I don't see the committee penalizing LSU/Texas for losing to South Carolina or USC for losing to UCLA (or vice versa). Texas could lose 3x to South Carolina and I don't think they'll be penalized for it

UCONN's problem is that unless they upset South Carolina, their only standout wins in the regular season will be beating North Carolina and Tennessee (which still has to happen). Games against Iowa State, Louisville, and Ole Miss aren't as significant as they projected to be preseason.

Comparatively other teams in the mix for a #1 seed have much stronger wins so far:
-LSU has wins at the moment over NC State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.
-Texas has wins over West Virginia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Maryland, and Alabama.
-Notre Dame has wins over USC, Texas, UCONN, North Carolina and Georgia Tech.

 

[JoePgh]

The significance of seeding, and therefore of this thread, is somewhat limited.

If UConn's objective is simply to make the Final Four to continue the almost-streak, then seeding definitely matters, and UConn would want to avoid the brackets containing UCLA / SCar / Notre Dame if possible.

But if the objective is the National Championship, then it will be necessary to beat one, and perhaps two, of these teams anyway. In that case, who cares if it happens in the Elite Eight or in the Final Four?

I agree that UConn would be an underdog against any of these opponents, as would every other team in the country except another one of those three. But UConn would not be a prohibitive underdog (in my opinion) against any of them, and a victory against one or even two of them would be possible.

I'm sure that Geno and the coaches are saying, as they have in the past about NCAA match-ups, that "you play the team you are supposed to play", and you have to defeat that team to get where you want to be. So let's get on with it.

 

[packwrap]

Matchups sure do help, but not much use worrying about it.

LSU only had to beat Virginia Tech and Iowa in final 4 to win their recent natty.

UCONN '24 only dealt with Duke and USC to make Final Four. Even though we lost, even Iowa was a favorable match in semi.

Beat Tenn and SC, we are a #1 seed. Split, a #2 seed. Lose both a #3 seed. I'm cheering for 1st option.

 

[Tonyc]

Well its hard to argue with any of the points being made regarding seeding. I do believe UConn right now vs the UConn team that lost their 2 games is a much better team. In both UConns losses they were in those games late. Now with a healthy Azzi and a more experienced freshman and sophomore class's I dont think UConn loses both those games. Made one loss but I would think maybe not.

What will tell us a lot about where UConn is, is @ Tenn and @ SC games. UConn is still not where I think they should be. They are getting better each game which is a positive moving forward. I expect even a much better UConn team in March then they are right now.

UConn has looked really good in the second half of the season. Tenn and SC will test our patience poise confidence and our ability to execute under pressure and on the road against two very athletic teams.

We should not have to much of a problem against Tenn, but it will be a test. Our Big 3 have to stay our of foul trouble. Against @ SC the same thing must happen. We have the fire power to beat anyone and in these 2 games we have to prove it. No hesitation and no panicking. I believe playing aggressive defense will take care of our confidence.

As far as top teams. UCLA is number 1 because of Betts 6'7 ability to dominate. SC is 2. ND and UConn right now are a pretty close 3. With that said I believe those 4 teams can all beat each other on a good night. I would like to see UConn in USCs bracket, however is UConn is a one seed that wont happen. It always comes down to defense, execution and having a go to player who you can count on when the game is on the line. These qualities the top teams have.

 

[Rowdy831]

People thinking that South Carolina will beat UConn might be premature. SC is a good team but they don't have a dominant inside force and that is the team I think will give UConn problems. As far as non post players are concerned I think that UConn has as good as any team, most likely even better. The question to me is can KC handle the quality of player SC will throw at her.

UCLA has had a pretty easy go of it this year so far but has a very good schedule to finish. If they make it through the rest of the season with only one loss then they really might be hard to beat but I do thing Jana can match up with Betts well enough to keep it interesting. That brings us to ND and that is the game I think everyone dreads. To me the lack of perimeter defense for UConn is a concern but if they can defend just a little better than last time I like their chances with Azzi back in the lineup.

In the end UConn has the better player and consequently should win. I think Geno is still an advantage in most games so how can they lose? I love this time of the year.