It won't be overpaying for Apple. Live sports will drive subscription revenue, and Apple in particular needs more content because unlike Max or ParamountPlus, Apple doesn't have decades of old content to sell. Apple wants to drive a stake into cable and the pure resellers like Sling and Fubo. Apple has basically been an entertainment and communications device company for two decades. Live sports will be harder to commoditize, but they can't be in the video business without it. I think they have to buy enough content to have a credible sports department.
I am not sure what the right move for ESPN is. At one point I got them trying to be a sports broadcasting monopoly, but now, who knows? Them being the only show in town for most of this century has covered up a lot of terrible decisions. They have spent 20 years trying to shrink the market for their college content, which doesn't make sense from a competitive or revenue standpoint. They have basically made themselves completely dependent on the SEC in the streaming era, which was both stupid and avoidable. Every time I think ESPN has made the stupidest decision possible, they top it with another one.