Possible Big 12 Invite rumors

[ThabeetDown]

For anyone wanting to stay in the Big East, just know that the current money UConn gets from the TV deal is less than what James Bouknight made this year. Just some perspective on how bad and dire the situation is financially.

 

[Waquoit]

We jump ship and leave the big east…the big east would never take us back again if things went sideways

We win a title and they can't get us into the Gavitt Games?

 

[Waquoit]

UConn Can Ill Afford to Make the Mistake of a Football-Centric Big 12 Move

Consider the source here

 

[upstater]

Yeah, no. This is a myth. It's marketing. It's intended to put the school in front of potential students, and to provide more appeal to those students who enjoy the experience. Only 20-30 schools make any money and most of them are barely profitable. The rest are trying to reduce the cost of this marketing expense. If not for this, nobody would do it. College football is a $4B a year business. Pepsico is $80B. A supply chain company in Pittsburgh called Armada is $4B. Walmart is $500B.

As for "big business", it's not that big. It's tiny compared to the research grants these schools want and compared to what they rake in from students. Why did the ACC want BC? To make their schools more attractive to wealthy kids in New England who have good SAT scores and went to good high schools. It's also why the B1G wanted Rutgers and Maryland. Not really about athletics. The AD $ is nice too, but not the main reason. Guess what? It worked. New England kids are heading to ACC schools in much bigger numbers. Northeastern area kids heading to B1G schools in bigger numbers too. BC applications from out of state kids in ACC states went way up. That's what it's about. It's why Miami joined the Big East.

This is good for UConn, except that the B12 schools likely know that they won't be all that appealing to kids in New England. What Benedict said the other day is the inverse of this, will kids from Iowa, KS, TX want to go to UConn? Or are they more appealing to kids in the Big East states? Part of UConn's problem is it's expensive as hell out of state. The ACC is a much better fit, because those growing areas are full of kids that might actually go to UConn. Benedict's answer to the ACC would be an instant yes.

The only thing I would add to this -- I agreed with almost all of it -- is that the reason more kids are headed out of state, and the reason applications are shooting up EVERYWHERE -- is because colleges haven't kept up with demographics. It's quite the opposite. Because USNews puts such a heavy premium on student/faculty ratios and acceptance rates, schools have done all they could to limiting the size of incoming classes.

In 1969, the US had 9m students at 4 year universities and colleges. Population was just under 200m.

In 2022, the US had 10.5m students (down from a high of 11.5m) at 4 year universities and colleges. Pop. is at 330m.

Many here of a certain age can attest that it was much easier to get into college in the past (in my case, the 1980s) than it is now.

And schools without major sports are skyrocketing in popularity and applications just as those with sports are, so the emphasis on sports as marketing (which is indeed real, I'm not disputing) may be overblown. Check out Boston U (dropped football), Northeastern, the SUNYs, Vermont, etc., all the privates without bigtime sports, and you'll see the same trends there.

 

[upstater]

There are probably at least a dozen universities that also lack the AAU rating that would make more sense for The Big Ten.

Struggling to come up with these names. Virginia Tech is the only one I can think of. Oregon, Washington and Arizona are all AAU. Which others are there than UConn?

 

[Kolumbo]

I know it will never happen and I'm regurgitating bile even thinking it but aiding an ACC breakup and having Big12 add Pitt and 'cuse would be an interesting play.

Pitt and 'cuse now know they aren't part of the Magnificent 7 and they are likely to be left to fend for themselves when the ACC breaks up. Rather than wait to see who wants ACC scraps, proacticely engage them to go with Mag 7 and dissolve ACC.

A UConn, 'cuse, Pitt, Cincy and WVU block forms a nice transition from northeast to rust belt. Screw BCU, they can die on an island. Put UCF in this group too.

Big 12 goes to 18 teams total. They add some Pac12 scraps and have three divisions of 6 each.

As I said, this has no chance of happening, so no need to go crazy telling me why it won’t happen. I know it's not. But it would be enough to help UConn AD across the board.

I've spent way too much time thinking about various scenarios and I hope the folks in charge have spent 100x as much time doing the same. That would be ideal, the old Big East mates altogether again whether in the Big 12 or ACC 2.0/Big East Football. I think cuse fans are just as anxious about finding a landing spot. It's like a huge game of chicken out there. The risk of an early ACC breakup is that there are too many options for the Big 12 and see Rule #1 of CR.

 

[Greedo]

I know it will never happen and I'm regurgitating bile even thinking it but aiding an ACC breakup and having Big12 add Pitt and 'cuse would be an interesting play.

Pitt and 'cuse now know they aren't part of the Magnificent 7 and they are likely to be left to fend for themselves when the ACC breaks up. Rather than wait to see who wants ACC scraps, proacticely engage them to go with Mag 7 and dissolve ACC.

A UConn, 'cuse, Pitt, Cincy and WVU block forms a nice transition from northeast to rust belt. Screw BCU, they can die on an island. Put UCF in this group too.

Big 12 goes to 18 teams total. They add some Pac12 scraps and have three divisions of 6 each.

As I said, this has no chance of happening, so no need to go crazy telling me why it won’t happen. I know it's not. But it would be enough to help UConn AD across the board.

I actually think this is realistic, and if the Big 12 is genuinely reaching out to UConn it's what I would propose if I were the AD. I think if UConn has an offer from the Big 12 you basically have to accept it, but it scares me from a geography and school culture standpoint. I do question if we'd be able to be successful there. If Pitt and Syracuse join as well those fears dissipate for me.

 

[king conn]

I see your post. You specifically asked how the remains of ethe sav ACC would be able to meet the $50m B12 payout. DID YOU NOT WRITE $50m? It's right in your post.

Lastly, I didn't say 7 ACC schools would leave. I said 7 ACC schools MET. Big difference. In my posts, I said 3 or 4 would leave.

The remaining schools are much more valuable than anything the B12 has.

So now you finally admit what I said, but in a failed attempt to save face are claiming I said I never said it?

And you did not say 7 schools would leave or met! Or that 3 or 4 would! Look at your darn posts!

I mean you have identified yourself as an educator! Heaven help!

 

[Waquoit]

If you're going to call out the voice in your head at least have the decency to tag his handle.

I heard it too. Loud and clear.

 

[Waquoit]

What's interesting about it? His tweet doesn't change much of anything.

Seriously? It's a clear indication that the UConn AD has state support.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

For anyone wanting to stay in the Big East, just know that the current money UConn gets from the TV deal is less than what James Bouknight made this year. Just some perspective on how bad and dire the situation is financially.

I don't think Bouk makes that much in one year.

 

[upstater]

So now you finally admit what I said, but in a failed attempt to save face are claiming I said I never said it?

And you did not say 7 schools would leave or met! Or that 3 or 4 would! Look at your darn posts!

I mean you have identified yourself as an educator! Heaven help!

I have no idea what you're writing here. What does this even mean?

"So now you finally admit what I said, but in a failed attempt to save face are claiming I said I never said it?"

I said from the start that you said it.

Also I've said over and over that it wouldn't be 7 schools leaving. How many times can I say it?

For the life of me, I can't imagine the difficulty you're having with this.

The point is simple, it's not hard to imagine the ACC's TV package jumping the B12s package (they are only $8m apart right now) if 3 or 4 schools leave. I never wrote anything that contradicted this point that I made earlier. It's a simple point.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I have no idea what you're writing here. What does this even mean?

"So now you finally admit what I said, but in a failed attempt to save face are claiming I said I never said it?"

I said from the start that you said it.

Also I've said over and over that it wouldn't be 7 schools leaving. How many times can I say it?

For the life of me, I can't imagine the difficulty you're having with this.

The point is simple, it's not hard to imagine the ACC's TV package jumping the B12s package (they are only $8m apart right now) if 3 or 4 schools leave. I never wrote anything that contradicted this point that I made earlier. It's a simple point.

ACC schools leaving would likely be making a mistake too. If they stay it will definitely be higher than the B12. B1G and SEC money? No. Nobody is getting that, but the ACC is clearly the #3 conference right now as is, in terms of brands, actual performance and TV appeal + has demographics as good as the SEC.

 

[upstater]

ACC schools leaving would likely be making a mistake too. If they stay it will definitely be higher than the B12. B1G and SEC money? No. Nobody is getting that, but the ACC is clearly the #3 conference right now as is, in terms of brands, actual performance and TV appeal + has demographics as good as the SEC.

To be clear, the original discussion was about some ACC schools (namely UNC, Virginia, Clemson or FSU) leaving for the SEC or B1G. That's the context. I said that even in such a situation, the ACC would be stronger and better situated than the B12.

 

[noeynox]

Seriously? It's a clear indication that the UConn AD has state support.

1. He has no control over that and 2. No one can guarantee that will go on forever

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

The only thing I would add to this -- I agreed with almost all of it -- is that the reason more kids are headed out of state, and the reason applications are shooting up EVERYWHERE -- is because colleges haven't kept up with demographics. It's quite the opposite. Because USNews puts such a heavy premium on student/faculty ratios and acceptance rates, schools have done all they could to limiting the size of incoming classes.

In 1969, the US had 9m students at 4 year universities and colleges. Population was just under 200m.

In 2022, the US had 10.5m students (down from a high of 11.5m) at 4 year universities and colleges. Pop. is at 330m.

Many here of a certain age can attest that it was much easier to get into college in the past (in my case, the 1980s) than it is now.

And schools without major sports are skyrocketing in popularity and applications just as those with sports are, so the emphasis on sports as marketing (which is indeed real, I'm not disputing) may be overblown. Check out Boston U (dropped football), Northeastern, the SUNYs, Vermont, etc., all the privates without bigtime sports, and you'll see the same trends there.

Great added points!

I think sports act as the typical flagship university's front porch which helps build enthusiasm within its home state, helps with building its state budget commitments, creates exposure to prospective out of state students, and sustains/builds connections to alumns and donors.

In terms of BU (my undergraduate alma mater), there are a few dynamics involved. We actually had a high performing football program at the Yankee Conference/1AA level when the plug was suddenly pulled in 1997; sent several guys to the NFL in the 80s and 90s including Bill Brooks who was 1986 AFC Rookie of the Year.

BU was one of the first American universities to strongly go after high performing international students. If you walk the campus or step into the student union now you might not even think you are in a US city. This increased the academic profile of BU and that helped with recruiting more high profile US students as well. Research was also focused on and now BU is in the AAU and is considered one of the leading research universities in the US and even globally in certain fields (medical, life sciences, high tech, socio/politics, etc.). Pretty remarkable trajectory over a couple of decades, actually.

Long way of saying, athletic success and academic success can work together but obviously can be mutually exclusive as well.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

In 1969, the US had 9m students at 4 year universities and colleges. Population was just under 200m.

In 2022, the US had 10.5m students (down from a high of 11.5m) at 4 year universities and colleges. Pop. is at 330m.

A couple mitigating factors why things appear as skewed from a surface glance at those numbers:

1 - in 1969 the first baby boomers turned 22. There was an exceptionally large portion of the population within the age of four year undergraduates.

2 - Attending college at that time entitled draft age males a deferal from the war in Viet Nam.

We aren't comparing apples to apples with 9mm out of 200mm in 1969 vs 10.5mm out if 330mm today.

 

[Billy Jack]

With all due respect, This kind of silly. Their total payout to teams is over 50 million AND their champ is guaranteed a spot in the upcoming playoff. They already took their hit with Texas and Oklahoma leaving and survived it.

Yes, networks do make stupid decisions. But seriously look at who’s in the Big XII. Look at the history of those football programs. Look at the population centers they do/don’t represent. Do you really think that money will last? I don’t. I can’t see throwing my lot in with them.

In the real world instead of the world of TV fantasy, the reconstructed Bug XII is not a power conference for the simple reason that it has no power teams. Their power teams walked out the door years ago or are about to walk out the door next year. And they took their population centers with them. You can’t be a power conference without power teams.

 

[noeynox]

Yes, networks do make stupid decisions. But seriously look at who’s in the Big XII. Look at the history of those football programs. Look at the population centers they do/don’t represent. Do you really think that money will last? I don’t. I can’t see throwing my lot in with them.

In the real world instead of the world of TV fantasy, the reconstructed Bug XII is not a power conference for the simple reason that it has no power teams. Their power teams walked out the door years ago or are about to walk out the door next year. And they took their population centers with them. You can’t be a power conference without power teams.

I again i respect your position, but who is walking out next year? They too are bound a GOR like the ACC who has 7 schools publicly talking about finding a way out of their current GOR.

And like i said, they lost their top two brands and negotiated a damn fine TV contract. The idea that league is in any way comparable to the AAC is like saying the Big East and Atlantic 10 are the same.

 

[Billy Jack]

They changed the way college football works and it’s worth way more money… they will absolutely change college basketball.

There’s no evidence that college basketball is changing. The dynamics and the control of the postseason in the two sports are completely different. At this point any predictions about the future of college basketball are completely speculative. So, I respect you POV, but until I see some evidence I’ll stick with mine.

 

[CL82]

Wow, you are really frightened about the prospect of us leaving. I mean, I get it, Providence College's basketball existence in the modern era has largely been as a parasite living off of the success of others in their conference, so us leaving must seem very frightening indeed. Don't worry little brother, you'll be able to latch onto another team if we end up leaving.

 

[Billy Jack]

Athletics is a money maker. Schools are leaving conferences so their athletic departments can make millions of dollars more. No other reason.

Also, multiple times every year there are threads talking about the deficit the university is in, not just the AD. Murphy is just blowing gas

Athletics are not a money maker for the schools. Benedict pointed that out in the article linked earlier in this thread. The money stays in athletics; it’s not like it benefits the school by going into research or something in academics, which is after all the core mission of the university. Along with the increased revenue come increased costs. Benedict pointed that out as well and mentioned that there are still P5 schools losing money even with all that revenue.

 

[Rocktheworld]

Why do you think they won’t do that? They have shown they are willing to change a much more valuable property

Because a playoff makes more money for CFB and was not nearly as radical as the changes to the Tournament you’re suggesting; and those changes would likely cause the Tournament to lose value rather than add value. People watch for the mid-major upsets. Pretty simple concepts here.

The only “change” would be the P5 breaking off and forming their own tournament so they make all the money on attendance/advertising. The NCAA Tournament itself is not changing.