Player Evaluation

[Bestiarius]

There has been a lot of opinion lately as to Faris' value to the team vs other players. It's a difficult analysis that lends itself to opinions, but not facts. We perhaps tend to overvalue the importance of scoring at the expense of other factors that contribute to a win.

Is there a good way to translate statisitcal categories so that they can be directly related to points? In other words, how many points does a steal equate, a rebound, etc? Such an analysis might result in a more accurate assessment of a players value to the team in a given game. Has anyone seen an analysis of these factors? If not, are there any thoughts as to what each stat catagory means to a team's success.

For the sake of discussion here is a link to the last two games stats, Pitt & St. Johns http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/stats/2011-2012/021812wb.html
http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/w-baskbl/stats/2011-2012/021812wb.html

 

[Scotter]

There are statistical tools to relate the other aspects of the game to points, although none of it perfect. On the team level basketball can basically be divided into four statistical categories called the four factors. And research has shown their value is roughly divided this way: shooting (40%), turnovers (25%), rebounding (20%), and free throws (15%). Thsoe four fracots actually become 8 factors when you consider offense and defense.

There has been work done to carry this down to the individual level by dividing credit for every point scored and allowed by a team among the individual players. From that there are ways to divide credit for wins to individual players, although these stats require some nuanced interpretation. Dividing credit for defense is difficult as players are given equal credit for forcing missed shots so a good perimeter defender that doesn't get many steals, blocks, or rebounds is going to be under credited, but for the most part work reasonably well. I keep a more basic record of win shares for the UConn team, although I haven't added in the last several games of stats for UConn yet. You may want to peruse basketball-reference's WNBA site though, for example here you can see how the win shares for last season's WNBA champion Lynx were distributed.

Not sure how far down this rabbit hole you want to go. Feel free to ask additional questions.

 

[phil sampieri]

There are statistical tools to relate the other aspects of the game to points, although none of it perfect. On the team level basketball can basically be divided into four statistical categories called the four factors. And research has shown their value is roughly divided this way: shooting (40%), turnovers (25%), rebounding (20%), and free throws (15%). Thsoe four fracots actually become 8 factors when you consider offense and defense.

There has been work done to carry this down to the individual level by dividing credit for every point scored and allowed by a team among the individual players. From that there are ways to divide credit for wins to individual players, although these stats require some nuanced interpretation. Dividing credit for defense is difficult as players are given equal credit for forcing missed shots so a good perimeter defender that doesn't get many steals, blocks, or rebounds is going to be under credited, but for the most part work reasonably well. I keep a more basic record of win shares for the UConn team, although I haven't added in the last several games of stats for UConn yet. You may want to peruse basketball-reference's WNBA site though, for example here you can see how the win shares for last season's WNBA champion Lynx were distributed.

Not sure how far down this rabbit hole you want to go. Feel free to ask additional questions.

paralysis by analysis ?

 

[wallman]

Players like Faris are my favorite type players, every successful team needs them and can't win without them.

 

[huskybill]

This is not the system you are looking for, but I use the method called BRATS to
determine a player's floor game. It was devised by HUSKY BLUE AND WHITE around 1994. It's certainly not a perfect method, but it is one that can be figured rather quickly. It uses Blocks, Rebounds, Assists, Turnovers and Steals. Hence the name. You add Blocks, Rebounds, Assists together, deduct 2 times the Turnovers and add 2 times the Steals. Thus a player could get a negative number for Brats during a game. I haven't kept the numbers up to date, but I did calculate the top six scorers' BRATS for the first 26 games. Tif was first with 12.4/game and Kelly second with 10.3/game. After that came Bria 9.4 ; Kaleena 9.2 ; Stef 6.0 and Caroline 4.5.

 

[VAUConnFan]

Forget any quantitative or qualitative analysis, Kelly Faris plays. The only time her lack off offense becomes a liability is if her more offensively gifted teammates find themselves in a collective funk/slump/bad game. Defense, rebounding, assists, steals, screens, etc.. all contribute to a winning effort. Despite being a prolific scorer in college, Dennis Rodman totally revamped his game and his image, almost totally eschewing offense and became so invaluable that teammates and coaches were willing to put up with his eccentricities. It is not all about offense.

 

[bruinbball]

I posted this in another thread:

I just tallied some numbers - if Kelly were to average her current career average for another 49 games - her career numbers would look like this:
940 Pts, 800 Rebs, 498 Assts, 79 Blocks, 273 Steals, 279 TO, 1.78 A/TO ratio.

AMAZING OVERALL! I'd love to see her hit the 1000 point mark.

Some Husky historian could tell us: How many players have ever had 1000 points, 800 rebounds, 500 assists, 250 steals and 75 blocks?

 

[alexrgct]

I posted this in another thread:

I just tallied some numbers - if Kelly were to average her current career average for another 49 games - her career numbers would look like this:
940 Pts, 800 Rebs, 498 Assts, 79 Blocks, 273 Steals, 279 TO, 1.78 A/TO ratio.

AMAZING OVERALL! I'd love to see her hit the 1000 point mark.

Some Husky historian could tell us: How many players have ever had 1000 points, 800 rebounds, 500 assists, 250 steals and 75 blocks?[/quote]

I'll start with the obvious: Maya Moore- 3,036 points, 1276 boards, 544 assists, 310 steals, 204 blocks. Let me do some digging.

 

[alexrgct]

And...the answer is no one other than Maya exceeded all of those thresholds for UConn.

Only three have 500 assists and 250 steals: Jen, Renee, and Maya. As you can imagine, Jen and Renee fall short on rebounds and blocks.

 

[JoePgh]

I looked at those Minnesota Lynx statistics. Based on that, Maya was the third largest contributor to the team's success, behind (and not far behind) only Lindsay Whalen and Seimone Augustus, two probable Olympic-team players with much more experience at the pro level than Maya. Not too shabby for a rookie ...

 

[MilfordHusky]

That Maya was quite a player! She even sang the national anthem. There wasn't much that she couldn't do-- and do well.

 

[alexrgct]

That Maya was quite a player! She even sang the national anthem. There wasn't much that she couldn't do-- and do well.

Good student, too. Quality human being in every respect. Someone you'd be happy to have your kids emulate. Yeah, she was solid.

 

[VAMike23]

Good student, too. Quality human being in every respect. Someone you'd be happy to have your kids emulate. Yeah, she was solid.

She was just 'all right'. Nothing to write home about

 

[bruinbball]

Who is this Maya? Is she good?

 

[Wbbfan1]

Kelly and also Caroline has to start this year because of the talent level on Geno's bench. IMHO he could have had KML starting at the beginning of the year, but made a conscious decision that it would be better to have additional scoring coming off the bench. If KML had started, who would he bring off the bench to get points or influence the pace of the game. Who could he go to, if KML got into early foul trouble if she was starting. Also because of Caroline's past injuries, it made more sense for her to start instead of sitting on the bench immediately following the pregame warm-ups.

IMHO Kiah is more suited for playing center and don't see her developing into a power forward where you would see a starting lineup of Kiah and Stef on the floor at the start of the game. I see her competing for Stef's starting position next year and because of her defense just might be able to win the job. If not, they'll equally share the available minutes next year.

I refuse to believe that either Morgan Tuck and Breanna Stewart will be coming off the bench next year. One of them will be starting at the forward position from the start. I suspect it will be Breanna as she is so talented and from what I've seen with her play with Team USA is ready for the college game.

Then it comes to what do you do with Kelly, does she start at the wing and keep her starting because of all the intangibles she brings and her defensive play or does KML start at the wing. IMHO wing is where Kelly will start with Geno thinking he has enough scoring with the other 4 starters.

In this case Bria and KML will be the starting guards with Bria playing the PG role. IMHO Bria is more suited for the 2 guard. I don't see Moriah starting at the beginning of the year.

I don't doubt for a second that Geno would prefer to start both Kelly and Caroline in their Senior year, but I don't see how
you keep a player like Breanna Stewart on the bench to start a game. It just makes no sense If he went with a lineup of Stef, Kelly, Caroline, KML and Bria then you have the same problem with this years team, not enough starting players that you can get points from. IMHO the starting lineup next year will be

Stef or Kiah @ Center
Breanna @ Forward
Kelly @ Wing
KML @ 2 Guard
Bria @ PG

Kelly and Bria will be the primary ball handlers bringing the ball up the court.

Now if Moriah is talented enough to start at Point from the beginning of the year, I don't know what Geno would do with Kelly and KML.

 

[Icebear]

I don't doubt for a second that Geno would prefer to start both Kelly and Caroline in their Senior year, but I don't see how you keep a player like Breanna Stewart on the bench to start a game. It just makes no sense If he went with a lineup of Stef, Kelly, Caroline, KML and Bria then you have the same problem with this years team, not enough starting players that you can get points from. IMHO the starting lineup next year will be

It is relatively easy to start Caroline and/or Kelly. You just put them on the floor. Why is the more important? Because they will help to establish the rhythm and order that you want the team to play in. Then once established you begin to work in the other players so they can feel that rhythm. Experience is one of the great protectors against the too fast and rushed play.

Doing this does not mean the starters will necessarily be the players on the floor at crunch. Point is that you use each player to help bring their assets to the game at the right time. For young players that time is often not straight out of the gate. I expect Stewart on the floor at key points throughout the game and to accrue what some refer to as starters minutes.

 

[bruinbball]

Agree with Ice in that as Geno has stated, who starts doesn't matter that much. It's who is getting the most minutes that matters - and the minutes in crunch time are even more important. Being an enormous Faris fan, I want to see her start. However, I am also smart enough to realize that if Geno does not start her or Caroline, it is what he feels is best for the team. Where do I, as a basketball loving fan with no coaching experience at this or any level, have any foundation to question his judgment? I don't and I won't.

Then again I keep think about this possibility - if UConn decides to press, how will a team be effective against - Kelly or Moriah, Bria or Brianna, KML or Doty, Stewart and Stokes or Tuck? I just don't see it. They all have high bball IQ, they are all quick, athletic and have good hands. I see a shot clock violation before someone crosses half court next year.

Then I think the same for half court defense - but throw in the fact we have 4 solid front court players over 6'0", with another 2 -Johnson and Buck that still can progress and add even more depth. Quick guards with active hands.

I just don't see how teams will score more than 42-43 ppg next year.

 

[John Fryer]

Kelly and also Caroline has to start this year because of the talent level on Geno's bench. IMHO he could have had KML starting at the beginning of the year, but made a conscious decision that it would be better to have additional scoring coming off the bench. If KML had started, who would he bring off the bench to get points or influence the pace of the game. Who could he go to, if KML got into early foul trouble if she was starting. Also because of Caroline's past injuries, it made more sense for her to start instead of sitting on the bench immediately following the pregame warm-ups.

IMHO Kiah is more suited for playing center and don't see her developing into a power forward where you would see a starting lineup of Kiah and Stef on the floor at the start of the game. I see her competing for Stef's starting position next year and because of her defense just might be able to win the job. If not, they'll equally share the available minutes next year.

I refuse to believe that either Morgan Tuck and Breanna Stewart will be coming off the bench next year. One of them will be starting at the forward position from the start. I suspect it will be Breanna as she is so talented and from what I've seen with her play with Team USA is ready for the college game.

Then it comes to what do you do with Kelly, does she start at the wing and keep her starting because of all the intangibles she brings and her defensive play or does KML start at the wing. IMHO wing is where Kelly will start with Geno thinking he has enough scoring with the other 4 starters.

In this case Bria and KML will be the starting guards with Bria playing the PG role. IMHO Bria is more suited for the 2 guard. I don't see Moriah starting at the beginning of the year.

I don't doubt for a second that Geno would prefer to start both Kelly and Caroline in their Senior year, but I don't see how
you keep a player like Breanna Stewart on the bench to start a game. It just makes no sense If he went with a lineup of Stef, Kelly, Caroline, KML and Bria then you have the same problem with this years team, not enough starting players that you can get points from. IMHO the starting lineup next year will be

Stef or Kiah @ Center
Breanna @ Forward
Kelly @ Wing
KML @ 2 Guard
Bria @ PG

Kelly and Bria will be the primary ball handlers bringing the ball up the court.

Now if Moriah is talented enough to start at Point from the beginning of the year, I don't know what Geno would do with Kelly and KML.

Excellent analysis.

I would, however, like to suggest that even though Kelly has been an important contributor to our success, her limitation have begun to hurt us when we play very athletic teams.

The "Waltz Defense" is, of course, the most recent and immediate problem.

There could, however, IMO, be a related problem when Kelly is handling the ball.

The problem is this: She usually is unguarded when she brings the ball upcourt. (Which is, of course, related to teams not considering her an offensive threat.)

As for the starters for next year.

IMO, neither Doty or Kelly will start. (We should be in the unique situation of being so deep, talent wise, that it will be extremely difficult for coach A to justify not starting:

Moriah @ point.

Bria @ the 2 spot.

KML @ the 3 spot.

Breanna @ the 4 spot.

Kiah @ center. (Before the end of this season, if she continues her current rate of development, it will be very difficult to justify not starting Kiah. For what it might be worth. We should also consider the very real possibility that M. Johnson maybe in the mix for, non-garbage, PT at center?)

Peace,

John Fryer

 

[VAMike23]

I have been on the Kiah bandwagon since pre-season, but I don't think we can be projecting her as starter at the 5 next year. Stef has had her struggles but I think that the big girl will still be our starting center for the forseeable future. Just my guess/opinion.

I agree that Kiah seems better suited to the 5 than the 4 right now, so Geno could easily sub her back and forth with Stef depending on the situation (which he is already doing now). And when Stewart takes the floor, Kiah at the 5 and Bre at the 4 would be deadly.

Having said that, Geno noted early in the season that Kiah is a pretty good shooter, and he was starting to move her out to work on her face-up game, putting her "out of her comfort zone" to develop those aspects. By the time she is a JR/SR she could very well have a nice skillset as a forward.

Bottom line, UCONN over the next few years is going to completely flip the script from what we've had the last year and a half, which has been a lack of interior depth. (Caveat: Kiah is coming on very strong lately so this isn't as true today as it has been.) Our talent level in the paint is going to match our talent level on the wing and perimeter very soon. Which is an absolutely ridiculous--but true--statement.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Geno has said players earn their starting positions by their play during Practice. Based on what I know about Breanna, her play during Team USA games and what her coaches have said, there's no way she's not in the starting rotation. She will outplay both Kelly and Caroline in practice and Geno will have her starting. I also believe that both Kelly and Caroline will see the team will benefit more by having Breanna in the starting lineup.

It is relatively easy to start Caroline and/or Kelly. You just put them on the floor. Why is the more important? Because they will help to establish the rhythm and order that you want the team to play in. Then once established you begin to work in the other players so they can feel that rhythm. Experience is one of the great protectors against the too fast and rushed play.

Doing this does not mean the starters will necessarily be the players on the floor at crunch. Point is that you use each player to help bring their assets to the game at the right time. For young players that time is often not straight out of the gate. I expect Stewart on the floor at key points throughout the game and to accrue what some refer to as starters minutes.

 

[bruinbball]

Geno has said players earn their starting positions by their play during Practice. Based on what I know about Breanna, her play during Team USA games and what her coaches have said, there's no way she's not in the starting rotation. She will outplay both Kelly and Caroline in practice and Geno will have her starting. I also believe that both Kelly and Caroline will see the team will benefit more by having Breanna in the starting lineup.

Even if that is the case, there is one starting position opening up with the graduation of Tiffany. Either Doty or Faris or both will start.

 

[Aluminny69]

In Ice Hockey, we use a +/- system. Since it is a team sport, we look at who is on the ice when a goal is scored. You get a plus one when your team scores, and a minus one when the other team scores. This is an excellent way to evaluate a player's offensive and defensive value.

I think that the coaches keep similar statistics for UConn women. Are those statistics available?

Does everyone agree that this statistic is valuable?

 

[JoePgh]

The one starting position that is opened by Tiff's departure will belong to KML. I agree that Breanna may very well earn a starting position at the 4, but I do not think Geno would have more than one freshman in the starting line-up, and certainly not running the offense at PG, when he has competent upperclassmen who can do that.

A lot depends on whether Caroline will be healthier and more durable next year than she is this year. This year has been a Brittany Hunter year for her -- she can't play major minutes and often isn't herself, but in certain games (like Louisville) she shows the contribution that she is capable of making. And her A/TO ratio is superb. Nonetheless, if she is still semi-hobbled, she probably will not start. In that case, I would see the lineup as Bria, Kelly, KML, Breanna, and Stef/Kiah. If Caroline is fully healthy, then I expect that she will start over Kelly.

But, as Geno and others have said, minutes count more than who starts -- particularly minutes in close games at crunch time. My hunch is that Morgan Tuck will get a lot of crunch-time minutes, particularly if she can be a strong rebounder. Unless Kiah really blossoms as a rebounder or Morgan proves to be a Samarie-like player on the backboards, that will still be an area of relative weakness for the team next year.

 

[Ozzie Nelson]

The one starting position that is opened by Tiff's departure will belong to KML. I agree that Breanna may very well earn a starting position at the 4, but I do not think Geno would have more than one freshman in the starting line-up, and certainly not running the offense at PG, when he has competent upperclassmen who can do that.

A lot depends on whether Caroline will be healthier and more durable next year than she is this year. This year has been a Brittany Hunter year for her -- she can't play major minutes and often isn't herself, but in certain games (like Louisville) she shows the contribution that she is capable of making. And her A/TO ratio is superb. Nonetheless, if she is still semi-hobbled, she probably will not start. In that case, I would see the lineup as Bria, Kelly, KML, Breanna, and Stef/Kiah. If Caroline is fully healthy, then I expect that she will start over Kelly.

But, as Geno and others have said, minutes count more than who starts -- particularly minutes in close games at crunch time. My hunch is that Morgan Tuck will get a lot of crunch-time minutes, particularly if she can be a strong rebounder. Unless Kiah really blossoms as a rebounder or Morgan proves to be a Samarie-like player on the backboards, that will still be an area of relative weakness for the team next year.

Kiah is already there, and Morgan will be there, day 1.

 

[bruinbball]

Agreed Ozzie! Kiah has tremendous rebounding abilities. Morgan will be a treat.