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I can agree on all that... but why wouldn't the American want to get back to 12, and pick up some quality football in the process? Ok, fine, grab BYU and Boise State, and maybe Colorado State. Raid the Mtn. West instead of the MAC or C-USA. I mean at this point these confrence (Group of 5) should just all merge anyway. Create one big non-P5 conference. Have its own "playoff".
For starters, we don't NEED to get to 12. We can have a CCG at 10 and staying at that number increases the TV $$$ payout per school.
The problem with Southern Miss and Marshall is that you are basically adding two more ECU's. Football programs that may crack the Top 25 two or three times a decade and have a good following, but are in a dead media market and will be an absolute pain and the behind to get to travel wise for Olympic sports, while being RPI poison in basketball.
BYU, Boise State and Colorado State are the only G5 programs on the table not in the American that move the needle at all in terms of Football. CSU gets you into a new, lucrative market, BYU has a strong national following and Boise State strengthens you as a football conference more than anyone else.
Adding any schools that aren't BYU, Boise State or Colorado State should be a non-starter if The American loses schools.