Pitino: May Madness

[superjohn]

Ok. You are concerned about the future earnings of how many kids who might not get to play for one year. At the moment they will be playing. Maybe one, tops two potential NBA kids for this years draft who are on full scholarship, play or not this year. The whole men’s team will find a spot overseas even if they never play another college game. They all will have an extra year to play college if they want. How many Potential NFL players who could be drafted this year out of 85 or whatever on the team. This isn’t meant to be a pissing contest, the point was about delaying things. And I know that other things are unimportant to you, but for the record about my sons gigantic international law firm, almost all of just the NYC branch several hundred members support staff of paralegals, secretaries, clerks have been laid off since March. But a few kids not getting to showcase for a year their wares for a future millions of dollars a year is important. I cant tell you you should think that’s unimportant. Our definitions differ. Peace and love and GO HUSKIES.

A few kids? There's 4,500 D1 men's basketball players.

It's pretty simple, I don't think they should be forced to hurt their future earnings and not play because there's a virus that isn't deadly for them. They want to play, let them play.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

The fact is, even though for any one individual kid, it's not likely to be a big problem, if COVID rips through college basketball it's likely to cause major problems and even death for at least a few kids/coaches in the full landscape of college basketball, and is it worth it?

If people were told there was a murderer loose at a huge college bball event with tons of games involving all schools and of they continued the event it was likely a few people would be badly hurt or even killed, how fast would everyone agree to shut that event down?

The underlined part of this is not true. It is not "likely", it's possible but unlikely.

The second paragraph is a complete false equivalency. The likelihood of "major problems and even death" in that scenario and playing games during Covid are on different planets.

That's not to say there should not be thought given to delaying the season, adjusting protocols, establishing penalties for lack of mask use, etc. - it's a discussion that needs to occur. But if we're going down that route, these adjustments needs to be based on science and logic instead of unbridled fear.

 

[Peacefrog]

I'm very excited about this team and really hope a way(s) can be found to put together some semblance of a season. Storrsbred, I'm going to agree and disagree with you. The "experts" are indeed changing their opinions often but its not surprising given that this is a novel virus and we are still learning new things about it at a fast pace. This is one of the reasons that I don't think we should necessarily view it as a mere "annoyance" to young people. It might seem like that in the short term but the fact is, we don't know what the long-term effects might be. I think a lot of people are ignoring the distinct possibility (and I have put forth this perspective in other threads) that this is not a two-outcome disease. Its not simply that you survive it or not; there is a spectrum of outcomes, many of which are not yet fully understood. I'm pasting an excerpt from my b-i-l who is an MD. I had asked him about the latest on treatments and if there was something I might take prophylactically (emphasis mine):

"Of course, I REALLY don't want to catch it at all - even if I somehow could know that I would remain asymptomatic . Some patients who were asymptomatic were found to have pulmonary opacities on CT scan suggesting lung damage and also elevated troponin levels post infection indicating cardiac muscle damage that was later verified by echocardiography. Summary - This is a very nasty virus, and no one (even the young and healthy) should be nonchalant about catching it. We do not know what the long term effects will be at 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 30 years post-infection. There could be some unexpected post infectious deleterious consequences given what little we know of this virus. "

So, is it important enough to play? I don't know but all the potential outcomes should be part of the decision-making process.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

I'm very excited about this team and really hope a way(s) can be found to put together some semblance of a season. Storrsbred, I'm going to agree and disagree with you. The "experts" are indeed changing their opinions often but its not surprising given that this is a novel virus and we are still learning new things about it at a fast pace. This is one of the reasons that I don't think we should necessarily view it as a mere "annoyance" to young people. It might seem like that in the short term but the fact is, we don't know what the long-term effects might be. I think a lot of people are ignoring the distinct possibility (and I have put forth this perspective in other threads) that this is not a two-outcome disease. Its not simply that you survive it or not; there is a spectrum of outcomes, many of which are not yet fully understood. I'm pasting an excerpt from my b-i-l who is an MD. I had asked him about the latest on treatments and if there was something I might take prophylactically (emphasis mine):

"Of course, I REALLY don't want to catch it at all - even if I somehow could know that I would remain asymptomatic . Some patients who were asymptomatic were found to have pulmonary opacities on CT scan suggesting lung damage and also elevated troponin levels post infection indicating cardiac muscle damage that was later verified by echocardiography. Summary - This is a very nasty virus, and no one (even the young and healthy) should be nonchalant about catching it. We do not know what the long term effects will be at 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 30 years post-infection. There could be some unexpected post infectious deleterious consequences given what little we know of this virus. "

So, is it important enough to play? I don't know but all the potential outcomes should be part of the decision-making process.

Some good points here - I agree there's a need to consider other potential outcomes. That said, those too should be based on facts (as much as we have them) instead of fear-induced theories. It's easy to fall into the spiraling thought of "oh my god, what if covid will also do THIS to me in a year!" when that's not backed by any evidence.

 

[BGesus4]

The underlined part of this is not true. It is not "likely", it's possible but unlikely.

The second paragraph is a complete false equivalency. The likelihood of "major problems and even death" in that scenario and playing games during Covid are on different planets.

That's not to say there should not be thought given to delaying the season, adjusting protocols, establishing penalties for lack of mask use, etc. - it's a discussion that needs to occur. But if we're going down that route, these adjustments needs to be based on science and logic instead of unbridled fear.

I don't think you understand how probabilities and expected value works.

If it rips through college basketball, i.e., the n cases is very high, the p of needing to be in the icu on a ventilator is not low enough to not have a positive expected value for critical cases. That's just how the math works.

Now, I wasn't making a judgement about whether or not they can play without having it rip through college basketball. If they can, that would obviously be amazing as I think everyone on this board, me included, is desperate to see our guys in action.

My point was given all that, if they determine they are not going to be able to prevent a lot of kids from getting it, how do people feel about going ahead as planned?

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

I don't think you understand how probabilities and expected value works.

I stopped reading here.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

Not that it's any real surprise to anyone but the "student athlete" farce is going to be highlighted when all 'students' are sent home at Thanksgiving...with an exception made for 'student athletes' who will still be out there expected to make some money for the schools...

While very clearly a money making endeavor, sports will be a symbolic event to some level of normalcy. In my mind you either have the season as planned, or don't. Nothing significant will happen by delaying a month here or there. If you decide the risk outweighs the reward cancel the season...if not, play ball. People will be upset either way... unfortunately people will be upset and sick(er)/dead(er) with one of the options...

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Every sport is being played, I could care less if there are no fans. Not trying to be a jerk but I could care less about your son's law firm, everyone's life is more difficult right now but there's no reason sports can't be played...I think it's important they are played.

Exactly how much less could you care? Just trying to get accurate numbers here.

 

[BGesus4]

I stopped reading here.

Yeah, my point

 

[TXHuskyFan]

Not that it's any real surprise to anyone but the "student athlete" farce is going to be highlighted when all 'students' are sent home at Thanksgiving...with an exception made for 'student athletes' who will still be out there expected to make some money for the schools...

I said to a buddy last night, “these schools need to send all the students home so they stop infecting the athletes.”

 

[freescooter]

Hey guys,

I completely agree with "Little Ricky" (an old Long Island nickname for Pitino in the 60's because he always "brown-nosed" the coaches at camps):

The 2020-21 college basketball season needs to be postponed indefinitely.

COVID-19 is completely out of control, in the whole world. The coronavirus will tell us when we can return to our normal lives, not before. We don't call the shots this time - it does. And it doesn't give a hoot about college basketball or its fans. Basketball players just have too much prolonged direct contact to avoid getting the virus - all of them! We must protect the kids, from themselves - and their coaches.

We also must use simple common sense based on science & stay away from one another, even families, for a year. We can do it!

Basketball coaches cannot roll out the roundballs just yet. Postpone the college basketball season until science says it can resume!

Fatha Demo

I have to say this is NOT an outlandish plan by any means. Postpone the season until February when with luck we will have it at least partly under control. And begin rolling out a vaccine. Makes for a long winter but at least it will be a realatively safer one. And it might be possible to have a predictable schedule as well.

 

[freescooter]

A few kids? There's 4,500 D1 men's basketball players.

It's pretty simple, I don't think they should be forced to hurt their future earnings and not play because there's a virus that isn't deadly for them. They want to play, let them play.

You realize that there are kids majoring in the sciences who aren’t getting the lab time they need. And Med students who are having to watch stuff online that they would typically do in their labs. And high school and elementary school kids not getting to go to school in person. Forgive me if I don’t get all weepy over a couple of top players who might not get drafted as high yet have options to leave and play in other places if it is so important. Infections are skyrocketing. Deaths are following. Hospitals are being so badly overrun that people are dying of treatable disease because there is no room for them. And we are supposed to be all weepy because the college basketball season might get delayed a couple of months. Please.

 

[JohnFSilver]

It’s not the science, it’s the interpretation of the science by the “experts”. There are examples of differing interpretation from all over the world. Lots of flip flopping about what to do, like fish out of water, from the “experts”. Getting COVID is usually an annoyance for younger people. Let them play.

this makes no sense.

the concern isn’t young kids getting sick and dying. It is young people spreading the illness.

This is totally lost in almost every argument. Do young people have a moral responsibility not to infect those that are susceptible? I just had a friend, in good health, 51 year old women, in the icu fighting this. She is out and home and recovering.

there are people in that AD department that are over 50 that I care about.

the point is, there a lot of peole thet age who are otherwise healthy that can be in danger for whatever reason.

i am more concerned with the storrs campus day to day than the basketball team. I think they can isolate the team and should play. They can’t isolate students on campus. This is awful what is happening.

but, there comes a saturation level that you can’t play. We aren’t there in CT yet. But if this was North Dakota we would probably be with a stay at home order.

 

[Storrsbred]

this makes no sense.

the concern isn’t young kids getting sick and dying. It is young people spreading the illness.

This is totally lost in almost every argument. Do young people have a moral responsibility not to infect those that are susceptible? I just had a friend, in good health, 51 year old women, in the icu fighting this. She is out and home and recovering.

there are people in that AD department that are over 50 that I care about.

the point is, there a lot of peole thet age who are otherwise healthy that can be in danger for whatever reason.

i am more concerned with the storrs campus day to day than the basketball team. I think they can isolate the team and should play. They can’t isolate students on campus. This is awful what is happening.

but, there comes a saturation level that you can’t play. We aren’t there in CT yet. But if this was North Dakota we would probably be with a stay at home order.

As I said to @Hugo, use a little common sense. All these hundreds or thousands of people you are concerned are going to get the virus because UConn plays BB is nuts. Those people aren’t remotely going to be exposed to the UConn team, who are in a bubble. If you think them going to a game is risky, don’t go. These folks you are talking about may get the virus, but the chances are it will be from a cohort or friends. Trying to shut everything down will just prolong the problem.

 

[superjohn]

You realize that there are kids majoring in the sciences who aren’t getting the lab time they need. And Med students who are having to watch stuff online that they would typically do in their labs. And high school and elementary school kids not getting to go to school in person. Forgive me if I don’t get all weepy over a couple of top players who might not get drafted as high yet have options to leave and play in other places if it is so important. Infections are skyrocketing. Deaths are following. Hospitals are being so badly overrun that people are dying of treatable disease because there is no room for them. And we are supposed to be all weepy because the college basketball season might get delayed a couple of months. Please.

And what does that have to do with kids being allowed to play basketball. Them playing is going to overrun hospitals?

 

[UCDaveD]

Bring up COVID and all of the sudden all of the Tommy Tough Nuts come out.

 

[HuskyHawk]

There is a very, very low chance that playing college basketball will lead to any material increase in spread. The gyms are huge relative to the number of people in them. The air exchange rate is huge. Ventilation systems designed for thousands of people. We keep ignoring the science on how this spreads. And yes, a city law firm in an office building is far, far more risky. Office buildings are major sources of spread events.

Play the season. Giving people at home something to enjoy is important to avoiding fatigue that leads to risky behavior. Postponing is pointless. It assumes the conditions in the future will be different. That is unlikely. We already made that mistake. Haven’t we learned yet?

 

[JB75]

I mean by this point in the fall season, with much better COVID numbers throughout the country and especially here he was outright calling for the cancellation of the football season. I thought it was interesting to see him make many of the same points, but stop short of calling for the cancellation of the basketball seasons... seemed a bit inconsistent and certainly like he was trying to dodge the backlash (or the guarantee of being "wrong", since he knows there is zero appetite within the state/school to be out in front of calling for the cancellation of UConn hoops) he'd get for calling for a cancellation of a much more popular set of team's seasons.

I was thinking same thing. Mike Anthony has been pretty doomsday over the top about his views on the virus. He called for cancellation of college football but season almost 75% done and even tho this weekend was crazy with a lot of games cancelled- overall the season has been pretty. good God I hope we play. I don’t care if it’s not till March. We absolutely have to have a season. Worst case play from mid March till end of may

 

[huskymedic]

There is a very, very low chance that playing college basketball will lead to any material increase in spread. The gyms are huge relative to the number of people in them. The air exchange rate is huge. Ventilation systems designed for thousands of people. We keep ignoring the science on how this spreads. And yes, a city law firm in an office building is far, far more risky. Office buildings are major sources of spread events.

It would seemingly depend on depth of community spread and individual facility design and enforcement of best practices/lesson learned across the board (fully acknowledging that this was early into the current debacle):

UVM basketball game was a major spreading event, VTDigger survey finds

For the first time, Department of Health officials acknowledged that the game may have been a spreading event.

vtdigger.org

 

[superjohn]

It would seemingly depend on depth of community spread and individual facility design and enforcement of best practices/lesson learned across the board (fully acknowledging that this was early into the current debacle):

UVM basketball game was a major spreading event, VTDigger survey finds

For the first time, Department of Health officials acknowledged that the game may have been a spreading event.

vtdigger.org

That was 3,200 fans in a small gym filled to capacity with screaming fans. Entirely different than playing games in empty arenas.

 

[huskymedic]

That was 3,200 fans in a small gym filled to capacity with screaming fans. Entirely different than playing games in empty arenas.

Agree completely on lower potential risk on games in empty arenas. There are lessons learned/best practices out there for everything else (see Butler thread comments).

 

[Greathusky]

What is distressing about the article?

Th headline says it all:

Increasingly bleak outlook for 2020-21 college basketball season as virus rages on

 

[QDOG5]

If I do go to a game I promise not to scream.

 

[Palatine]

Th headline says it all:

Increasingly bleak outlook for 2020-21 college basketball season as virus rages on

We now have two vaccines that are over 90% effective. Pfizer (90%) and Moderna (94%).

Moderna's vaccine will begin to be administered in December. Country wide admistration will last through the Spring. So pushing the the tourney to May makes sense.

Play ball!!!!