Pessimism grows in college football over season starting on time (update: it’s crumbling):

[billybud]

The FSU team is back on the field this week...let's see how this works out..

"The Florida State football team returned to the practice fields earlier this week for team conditioning as the Seminoles work toward getting back in shape for the 2020 football season."

 

[Skiblets]

God I hate that graph. New cases per million residents makes no sense. New cases per number of people tested is the true graph we should be looking at. Testing has doubled in the last four months so of course new cases per million residents would have to go up.

 

[Exit 4]

Okay this puts us back on track to shut the whole thing down....Maybe in the end it will be just the SEC, B12 and B10 playing.

 

[huskymedic]

14 school D2 Conference:

 

[huskymedic]

There goes Maine:

 

[huskymedic]

There goes Maine:

... or not? You can't make this up.

Nicole Auerbach @NicoleAuerbach 18m
The CAA will have no league football schedule this fall, but teams who want to play an independent schedule can try to do so, source says, adding to what @BruceFeldmanCFB reported. Another domino falling ... Bruce and I laid this all out last Monday: Ivy League’s impending decision could be a ‘big...

 

[huskypantz]

It's crazy that northeast conferences, where CV is under better control, are cancelling athletics and yet the south and south west, where CV is exploding, have yet to announce.

 

[J187Money]

i don’t understand how they do that for XC given most meets are a mix of regional schools. Do they just cancel everything until the conference championship?

 

[zls44]

Once a week testing for 85+ people, in states that are being ravaged by COVID and people are waiting 2-3 weeks to hear their results back? Don’t get me wrong I want football to happen but this seems like an egregious waste of resources.

ding ding ding ding ding

 

[jdb50]

On the news tonight there is a company in Finland that has developed a breathalyzer to detect covid-19. This really would be a gamechanger for restarting local K-12 schools, college, businesses. No waiting for testing results. We will see if it pans out.

 

[Exit 4]

On the news tonight there is a company in Finland that has developed a breathalyzer to detect covid-19. This really would be a gamechanger for restarting local K-12 schools, college, businesses. No waiting for testing results. We will see if it pans out.

SEC buying 14 now

 

[JohnFSilver]

God I hate that graph. New cases per million residents makes no sense. New cases per number of people tested is the true graph we should be looking at. Testing has doubled in the last four months so of course new cases per million residents would have to go up.

It is good science.

Just was on a business call earlier this week where they were giving an update. They use infections per million people. That is a standard metric across the world. It helps even things out to testing when different amount of tests are being done, with different population centers. Raw numbers don’t cut it. They haven’t tested a million people in these states. They weight it to take into account increases testing. So if I am testing 5000 times a day, then 10000, you could literally have more cases but your rate goes down.

That’s why the we have done more tests/we have more infections thing is a dumb attack line.

California has more people than Rhode Island. How do you determine the seriousness of the infection and the penetration?

allows you to measure state to state and country to country.

The ncaa got this analysis right, Using The right metric too.

Btw, Europe has determined safe to open as 25 infections per one million. Only state in country that meets that threshold is Vermont.

 

[Skiblets]

It is good science.

Just was on a business call earlier this week where they were giving an update. They use infections per million people. That is a standard metric across the world. It helps even things out to testing when different amount of tests are being done, with different population centers. Raw numbers don’t cut it. They haven’t tested a million people in these states. They weight it to take into account increases testing. So if I am testing 5000 times a day, then 10000, you could literally have more cases but your rate goes down.

That’s why the we have done more tests/we have more infections thing is a dumb attack line.

California has more people than Rhode Island. How do you determine the seriousness of the infection and the penetration?

allows you to measure state to state and country to country.

The ncaa got this analysis right, Using The right metric too.

Btw, Europe has determined safe to open as 25 infections per one million. Only state in country that meets that threshold is Vermont.

John - it's not good science at all and don't appreciate your calling my metric dumb as it is the most accepted metric out there since it accounts for test volumes. And the ratio I quote is not raw number - read it again - positives tests divided by total tests.....numerator and denominator.

The metric you quote(infections per million people) is a non-starter - with more tests comes more infections. It's the wrong narrative. You're an old sports writer, I'm in healthcare and working on policy and mitigation efforts around the country with physicians and public health leaders. I think I'll go with my original premise.

Lastly - how do we tell if California is worse off than Rhode Island? We use a number of indicators - positive tests per total tests, hospitalization rates, ICU rates, % of admissions needing ventilators, length of stay of those admitted, length of stay for those with ICU stays with or without vents, average age of those hospitalized, beds available, meds available, staff available, PPE available and lastly mortality rates as a lagging indicator.

My whole point is the NCAA is using one flawed metric to make decisions as it does not adjust for volume. It's a whole lot more complicated than that.

 

[Stinger92860]

Both metrics are important. Deaths per million, Cases per million, and percent positive are all needed to figure this out. The top states for deaths per million are still mostly located in the Northeast.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Both metrics are important. Deaths per million, Cases per million, and percent positive are all needed to figure this out. The top states for deaths per million are still mostly located in the Northeast.

exactly.

Percent positive very important. What I was calling dumb was people taking raw numbers only. Percent positive is important, and per million important. I like per million to compare across the world. This take into account volume and increased testing.

Pretty standard way to compare areas with population differences.

 

[CCSU97]

Its not really relevant because
-The situation in CT is currently much better than most of the country. This isn't really about the UConn AD its about all of college football unless we want to just play CCSU every week
-Comparing college football with huge rosters, daily practices, lifting sessions, meetings, travel, etc. to beer league softball isn't smart

Here's my idea - #Governor'sCup #UConn #CCSU

Men's Soccer, Women's Soccer, and Volleyball: 2-game series (at Storrs and at New Britain)
Football: one game at E. Hartford

 

[RSTuthill]

Percent positive has been found to provide the best leading indicator for hospitalizations per unit time. Time delay constant of 1-2 weeks.

Although it might be called a hot take or a profound statement of the obvious, hospitalizations per unit time are the best leading indicator of deaths per unit time. Time delay constant of 1-4 weeks.

Like all such correlations there are secondary influences such as which demographic cohort is primarily responsible for generating the spread and these factors influence the time constants as well.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

On the news tonight there is a company in Finland that has developed a breathalyzer to detect covid-19. This really would be a gamechanger for restarting local K-12 schools, college, businesses. No waiting for testing results. We will see if it pans out.

Very interesting. Rapid, on-the-spot Covid testing is another gateway to reopening more things in a safe manner.

 

[huskymedic]

CAA Announcement:


>>In expressing an understanding of the uniqueness of the Conference’s composition (12 institutions that compete in other sports in four Division I Conferences), the geographical expansion of the Conference membership and the complexity of an ever-changing situation, the Conference’s Board of Directors also affirmed that the Conference’s policies would permit member institutions the ability to explore the option of pursuing playing an independent football schedule in the Fall of 2020. <<

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Johnny Mac]

Commonwealth Coast Conference (DIII, Western NE, Wentworth, Roger Williams, Salve, etc.) suspends fall play.

"Despite the strong desire to provide our talented athletes the opportunity to play competitively in the sports at which they excel, the CCC Board of Directors has made the extremely difficult decision to suspend CCC intercollegiate athletic competition for the Fall 2020 semester."

 

[huskymedic]

That seemingly answers that question:


>The University of Maine, in consultation with the America East Conference and the Colonial Athletic Association, has made the difficult but necessary decision to postpone participation in the fall 2020 sports season. This decision affects the sports of football, field hockey, soccer and cross country.<

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Exit 4]

Its a game of flinch. None of the FBS programs want the headline as first school to cancel fall football. Guess we might have to wait for a conf to do it and then maybe others will follow.

 

[UCFBfan]

Its a game of flinch. None of the FBS programs want the headline as first school to cancel fall football. Guess we might have to wait for a conf to do it and then maybe others will follow.

I agree. I think they're all hoping that a school will need to cancel because of a COVID outbreak that can't be waited out. Then they can all cancel and point to that school and that school can point to a legit, larger COVID outbreak on the team. That's the only way I see this happening without some kind of higher up intervention. Seeing how the higher up political people seem to think there is no issue with how COVID is going, I have a feeling there might be a possible return of CFB, at least to start....