Path Forward for UConn

[RSTuthill]

FSU has been royally pissed off since I was a kid in the 90s. That is their default position.

Exit fees have been negotiated down before. Most famously for the ACC, Maryland wanted to pay $17 million under an old provision, the ACC wanted $52 million new exit feel passed almost assuredly as punishment right before Maryland walked. The ACC simply withheld money until an agreement was settled ($31 million, by far the largest exit fee up to that point).

But a GOR is not an exit fee. It has a monetary value, but it represents something more than money. It was created by media and conferences to ensure their investment. No media company or conference wants to see the GOR breaking point because it opens up Pandora’s box. Which is not to say we won’t see it at some point, but before FSU is on the hook for $40 million/year to Wall Street or the Saudi princes or whomever, they better be dang sure they have a spot ready for them because they won’t be making friends in the process.

Yup, they have to buy back their media rights. I just lumped that under the umbrella of the exit

 

[JeepCSC]

Yup, they have to buy back their media rights. I just lumped that under the umbrella of the exit

But it will be higher than an exit fee discount because there is more at stake. I’d be shocked if they aren’t asked to pay over 80% over it in a settlement that only comes about after a protracted legal battle. And I’m still not sure FSU would actually go through that scorched earth plan because at the end of the day they have to look good enough at the end of this for conferences and media partners wanting to get in bed with them by ironically asking them to sign a GOR.

 

[djct1999]

But it will be higher than an exit fee discount because there is more at stake. I’d be shocked if they aren’t asked to pay over 80% over it in a settlement that only comes about after a protracted legal battle. And I’m still not sure FSU would actually go through that scorched earth plan because at the end of the day they have to look good enough at the end of this for conferences and media partners wanting to get in bed with them by ironically asking them to sign a GOR.

I have no idea if its even possible, but could private equity/fsu have deep enough pockets to make it too expensive for the acc to actually fight in court? sort of what liv did to the pga?

 

[RSTuthill]

But it will be higher than an exit fee discount because there is more at stake. I’d be shocked if they aren’t asked to pay over 80% over it in a settlement that only comes about after a protracted legal battle.

Look, those two schools can join with other members and make life very difficult. To the point that the ACC would have little leverage. The good thing is that there are a maximum of 6 billets left in the P2.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I have no idea if its even possible, but could private equity/fsu have deep enough pockets to make it too expensive for the acc to actually fight in court? sort of what liv did to the pga?

I'm massively confident that PE firms have more than deep enough pockets to do just this.

I'm even more confident that PE firms won't invest a penny unless they fully believe the return will be well beyond what a conventional, low risk investment can offer. They won't throw cash away.

 

[JeepCSC]

Look, those two schools can join with other members and make life very difficult. To the point that the ACC would have little leverage. The good thing is that there are a maximum of 6 billets left in the P2.

The ACC already has the leverage, the GOR. One of the Magnificent 7 already told FSU to behave. They could be good copping/bad copping the situation, time will tell. But I haven’t seen anything yet to suggest the GOR/ACC is vulnerable in the next decade.

 

[upstater]

One of two things will happen when the Big 12 has to renegotiate. Either there is a healty tv market and they get a deal that destroys the ACC. Or there is a luke warm market and the top teams go to the SEC and Big 10 and the remaining schools fall by the waste side. Under no circumstance will the remaining schools join the ACC in a sweetened deal. How do I know this? Because if the Big 12 is unsuccessful in landing a better deal than the ACC, consolidation will be in full effect. And by consolidation, I mean the P2 and everyone else.

For me, it's the exact opposite of this.

None of the B12 will draw the attention of the SEC and B1G.

The ACC will be earning more money than the B12 in next few years.

The B12 have loaded themselves with the bottom half of the Pac12 (which the networks obviously didn't want) and w/ questionable schools like Cincy, Houston and UCF. Never mind the fact that they commandeered the sparsely populated Plains states already.

By 2031, the ACC schools may be ready to add members as they can envision losing FSU, Clemson, UNC and Virginia just a few years later (4?). They'll be able to offer longer term stability to schools like Kansas, TCU and Texas Tech, and more money as well, since the presumed remains of the ACC will still be in heavily populated areas of the southeast.

This gives the advantage to the ACC. The B12 will get plucked.

 

[superjohn]

Good lord, Bilas turned out to be about the most smug holier than though scumbag there is...

Jay Bilas (@JayBilas) / X

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[djct1999]

For me, it's the exact opposite of this.

None of the B12 will draw the attention of the SEC and B1G.

The ACC will be earning more money than the B12 in next few years.

The B12 have loaded themselves with the bottom half of the Pac12 (which the networks obviously didn't want) and w/ questionable schools like Cincy, Houston and UCF. Never mind the fact that they commandeered the sparsely populated Plains states already.

By 2031, the ACC schools may be ready to add members as they can envision losing FSU, Clemson, UNC and Virginia just a few years later (4?). They'll be able to offer longer term stability to schools like Kansas, TCU and Texas Tech, and more money as well, since the presumed remains of the ACC will still be in heavily populated areas of the southeast.

This gives the advantage to the ACC. The B12 will get plucked.

Who will want to join and who will pay up for a sinking ship? If the ACC loses those top schools, the Big 12 is far more competetive and appealing. I don't think either survive but to me, the Big 12 has a better chance than a diluted ACC. The Big 12 added state schools. No one will care for Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse and Duke football.

 

[don356]

I guess if you assume the absolute best for the ACC and absolute worst for the Big 12 but none of this is close to reality. Under almost all circumstances, Clemson, FSU, UNC, UVA, Va Tech, Miami, and NC State are gone.

+1, yea. That is an interesting take. It will be what is left of the ACC that will be evaluated. I think this consolidation in the B12, B10 and SEC does not bode well for the renewal of the Big East tv deal. Fox/Espn have tons of content now, and the original Fox deal was widely thought of as overpriced to get into the market. A shared bball streaming deal is not likely to benefit the schools in the Big East with the larger fan bases if it is shared. Not a good development with anyone with football. Best case scenario the current ACC adds some teams and Uconn gets a bid, but for how long that holds together if the big guys are looking who knows. Also, wonder if the expansion would be approved by the same group looking to maximize. However, it would likely be better than the Big East alternative. Bottom line is a football deal is a must, unless the program goes by the wayside. However, I will be surprised if the next tv deal is as much as the current one the way things are trending. The new B12 commish was savy. He has a group of similar type schools that are both competitive and likely to stay together. He seized on the same weakness that the broke up the Big east back in 2012/13 turning down a tv deal. Not a good move.

 

[RSTuthill]

For me, it's the exact opposite of this.

None of the B12 will draw the attention of the SEC and B1G.

The ACC will be earning more money than the B12 in next few years.

The B12 have loaded themselves with the bottom half of the Pac12 (which the networks obviously didn't want) and w/ questionable schools like Cincy, Houston and UCF. Never mind the fact that they commandeered the sparsely populated Plains states already.

By 2031, the ACC schools may be ready to add members as they can envision losing FSU, Clemson, UNC and Virginia just a few years later (4?). They'll be able to offer longer term stability to schools like Kansas, TCU and Texas Tech, and more money as well, since the presumed remains of the ACC will still be in heavily populated areas of the southeast.

This gives the advantage to the ACC. The B12 will get plucked.

Where will VA and NC go if the B1G is at 20? The SEC? I doubt that.

 

[Irvine]

I'm just enjoying our National Championship and looking forward to next season.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Where will VA and NC go if the B1G is at 20? The SEC? I doubt that.

UNC & UVA will be approached by both the B1G & SEC. The remainder of the ACC (ND excluded) will be schools that hope one of the big two would want them (Clemson, FSU, maybe Ga Tech, Miami, Duke, NC St & Va Tech) and schools who know neither of the big two would want them (the rest of the ACC).

 

[RSTuthill]

UNC & UVA will be approached by both the B1G & SEC. The remainder of the ACC (ND excluded) will be schools that hope one of the big two would want them (Clemson, FSU, maybe Ga Tech, Miami, Duke, NC St & Va Tech) and schools who know neither of the big two would want them (the rest of the ACC).

Hard for me to see that if the B1G is at 20.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Hard for me to see that if the B1G is at 20.

I believe their eventual landing point is 24, with four six school divisions (which is also why I belie Cal & Stanford will end up in the B1G).

Those two and ND will be half of the final six additions. UVA & UNC will be targets and a number of candidates will be competing for the final spot.

 

[superjohn]

I believe their eventual landing point is 24, with four six school divisions (which is also why I belie Cal & Stanford will end up in the B1G).

Those two and ND will be half of the final six additions. UVA & UNC will be targets and a number of candidates will be competing for the final spot.

I don't see any way Notre Dame ever joins the Big 10.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I don't see any way Notre Dame ever joins the Big 10.

I believe a) that's the only conference they would ever consider joining for all sports (including football) and b) eventually (likely a little more than a decade from now) they'll have to park their football program in a conference.

 

[upstater]

Where will VA and NC go if the B1G is at 20? The SEC? I doubt that.

?? Who goes to the B1G?

UNC is ticketed for the SEC. The fans and admin want it, and it would be a big boon for the SEC to get into a populated state w/ good high school football, not to mention the basketball.

As for Virginia, they will go B1G. The B1G has been trying to get into VA for years, and the Penn State and Maryland adds already have a lot to do with VA.

My wild card in all this is Florida St. I don't know if they are SEC or B1G. It's a mystery.

 

[upstater]

I believe a) that's the only conference they would ever consider joining for all sports (including football) and b) eventually (likely a little more than a decade from now) they'll have to park their football program in a conference.

It's the alumni that don't want it to join; obviously the president, AD and administrators do want it to join a conference.

 

[upstater]

I believe their eventual landing point is 24, with four six school divisions (which is also why I belie Cal & Stanford will end up in the B1G).

Those two and ND will be half of the final six additions. UVA & UNC will be targets and a number of candidates will be competing for the final spot.

If the SEC gets wind of UNC to the B1G, they grab UNC.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

It's the alumni that don't want it to join; obviously the president, AD and administrators do want it to join a conference.

Very true, but they were pretty close to joining the B1G a quarter century ago and as the old guard alumni continue to age out the resistance to giving up football independence will continue to drop.

 

[upstater]

Who will want to join and who will pay up for a sinking ship? If the ACC loses those top schools, the Big 12 is far more competetive and appealing. I don't think either survive but to me, the Big 12 has a better chance than a diluted ACC. The Big 12 added state schools. No one will care for Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse and Duke football.

Really?

Far more?

I'm scratching my head here. Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Okie St, Kansas St, Cincy, WV, Kansas, Iowa St, Utah, AZ St, Arizona, UCF, Houston, etc.? You really find this far more appealing? I mean, that is a decidedly underwhelming conference in football. I actually like them much much better in bball.

The ACC will have VT, Pitt, NC State, GT, Miami, Louisville along with the 4 privates you mention. These are all population heavy states. And if for some reason Clemson is held out of the P2 additions (i.e. ND + Va to B1G, FSU + UNC to SEC), they stay even stronger.

I see TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas as 3 prime additions.

 

[CL82]

I don't see any way Notre Dame ever joins the Big 10.

At some point I think the economic reality of their choices will force their hand, but yeah there is a strong institutional bias against it. Still, they be now if it weren't for the NBC deal.

 

[baggerbob]

I don't see any way Notre Dame ever joins the Big 10.

As long as Notre Dame has a way into the playoffs they will be Independent.

 

[upstater]

You have to ask if the ACC would be all that interested in having two royally pissed off schools in their conference that would cost them and awful lot to defend against. The answer is no, which is why the exit price is always lower.

Who cares if they are royally pissed?

They are leaving regardless in 13 yrs.

The lesser ACC schools are insuring themselves 13 years of money and relevance, which is a lot, rather than risk falling into the same abyss that Oregon St and Washington St are currently in.

Put it this way, if UConn joined the B12, then in my mind, that insured them until 2031. But no more than that. Joining the B12 would not have made them golden. It would've been a respite.

 

[djct1999]

Really?

Far more?

I'm scratching my head here. Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Okie St, Kansas St, Cincy, WV, Kansas, Iowa St, Utah, AZ St, Arizona, UCF, Houston, etc.? You really find this far more appealing? I mean, that is a decidedly underwhelming conference in football. I actually like them much much better in bball.

The ACC will have VT, Pitt, NC State, GT, Miami, Louisville along with the 4 privates you mention. These are all population heavy states. And if for some reason Clemson is held out of the P2 additions (i.e. ND + Va to B1G, FSU + UNC to SEC), they stay even stronger.

I see TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas as 3 prime additions.

I don’t have the energy to go back and forth. I will just reiterate that I am far less optimistic about the acc’s future than you. A lot less.

 

[upstater]

+1, yea. That is an interesting take. It will be what is left of the ACC that will be evaluated. I think this consolidation in the B12, B10 and SEC does not bode well for the renewal of the Big East tv deal. Fox/Espn have tons of content now, and the original Fox deal was widely thought of as overpriced to get into the market. A shared bball streaming deal is not likely to benefit the schools in the Big East with the larger fan bases if it is shared. Not a good development with anyone with football. Best case scenario the current ACC adds some teams and Uconn gets a bid, but for how long that holds together if the big guys are looking who knows. Also, wonder if the expansion would be approved by the same group looking to maximize. However, it would likely be better than the Big East alternative. Bottom line is a football deal is a must, unless the program goes by the wayside. However, I will be surprised if the next tv deal is as much as the current one the way things are trending. The new B12 commish was savy. He has a group of similar type schools that are both competitive and likely to stay together. He seized on the same weakness that the broke up the Big east back in 2012/13 turning down a tv deal. Not a good move.

I can't see how some of the schools mentioned above have $100m in value to the B1G and SEC. VT, Miami, and NC State are limited in value by not being the marquee properties in their states or region.

But you never know. I just don't see any network specifically paying for these 3.

 

[djct1999]

I can't see how some of the schools mentioned above have $100m in value to the B1G and SEC. VT, Miami, and NC State are limited in value by not being the marquee properties in their states or region.

But you never know. I just don't see any network specifically paying for these 3.

Yet Kansas will bring value to the acc?

 

[huskidork]

I can't see how some of the schools mentioned above have $100m in value to the B1G and SEC. VT, Miami, and NC State are limited in value by not being the marquee properties in their states or region.

But you never know. I just don't see any network specifically paying for these 3.

Miami is the exception to that rule, I don't like them but networks would absolutely pay imo

 

[upstater]

When that P2 consolidation happens, the best basketball left-behinds might consider a bball centric conference that has a few bbonly members.

Duke, UConn, Kansas, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Miami, NC State, Wake Forest, VT, GT, Villanova, Georgetown would make for one hell of a basketball conference. It would be the best of them all.