Pairwise

[CTpessimist]

UConn was down 4-3 against a highly rated team. Final score 6-3 after two empty netters. I know in basketball sometimes coaches will call off fouling so final score looks better even though they still technically have a chance to come back if the cards fell the right way. In hockey, does anyone know the pairwise risk/reward of coming back vs losing 5-3 / 6-3? Does this loss look really bad now vs not so bad?

Thanks.

 

[mac2351]

Scores don’t matter at all

Home losses are worse than road losses

Home wins are less valuable than road wins

Overtime wins are 2/3 of a regulation win and 1/3 of a regulation loss

Overtime losses are 2/3 of a regulation loss and 1/3 of a regulation win

Shootouts do not have any bearing

 

[Vowelguy]

UConn currently #6 , which would put it as the 2 seed vs Minnesota (1) and Quinnipiac (3) in Fargo.

Manch: 1 BC* // 8 Denver // 8 BU // 26 SacredH*
Toledo: 2 MichSt* // 6 Prov // 11 OhioSt // 18 MinnSt*
Fargo: 3 Minn // 6 UConn // 11 Quinn* // 13 ASU*
Allntwn: 4 Maine // 5 WMU // 10 Lowell // 14 Mich


Unless, for geography reasons, they swap UConn/Quinnipiac to Manchester vs #1 BC.

 

[SubbaBub]

There are so many tough games left, the current ranking means nothing. We finish 6th in Hockey East or bomb out of the tournament, we won't be getting a bid. Btw, based on points per games played, we are currently 6th as we've played more games than anyone else.

 

[UC15]

UConn currently #6 , which would put it as the 2 seed vs Minnesota (1) and Quinnipiac (3) in Fargo.

Manch: 1 BC* // 8 Denver // 8 BU // 26 SacredH*
Toledo: 2 MichSt* // 6 Prov // 11 OhioSt // 18 MinnSt*
Fargo: 3 Minn // 6 UConn // 11 Quinn* // 13 ASU*
Allntwn: 4 Maine // 5 WMU // 10 Lowell // 14 Mich


Unless, for geography reasons, they swap UConn/Quinnipiac to Manchester vs #1 BC.

guys can we stop with this it’s going to change a hundred times before the end of the season. Enjoy the rest of the season we’ll see where the chips fall in mid March.

 

[Vowelguy]

guys can we stop with this it’s going to change a hundred times before the end of the season. Enjoy the rest of the season we’ll see where the chips fall in mid March.

Yeah what are Joey Brackets, et al doing. No one should be projecting NCAA brackets based on current standings. How absurd.

If you dont like the thread, here's a nutty idea: dont read it.

 

[Viet Vet]

UConn currently #6 , which would put it as the 2 seed vs Minnesota (1) and Quinnipiac (3) in Fargo.

Manch: 1 BC* // 8 Denver // 8 BU // 26 SacredH*
Toledo: 2 MichSt* // 6 Prov // 11 OhioSt // 18 MinnSt*
Fargo: 3 Minn // 6 UConn // 11 Quinn* // 13 ASU*
Allntwn: 4 Maine // 5 WMU // 10 Lowell // 14 Mich


Unless, for geography reasons, they swap UConn/Quinnipiac to Manchester vs #1 BC.

No team unworthy of a #1 seed deserves shifting for geographic purposes. Earn it, or lose it.

 

[Vowelguy]

No team unworthy of a #1 seed deserves shifting for geographic purposes. Earn it, or lose it.

The selection committee will shift teams to help with attendance . They have a long history of doing this.

 

[Sea Goat]

UConn currently #6 , which would put it as the 2 seed vs Minnesota (1) and Quinnipiac (3) in Fargo.

Manch: 1 BC* // 8 Denver // 8 BU // 26 SacredH*
Toledo: 2 MichSt* // 6 Prov // 11 OhioSt // 18 MinnSt*
Fargo: 3 Minn // 6 UConn // 11 Quinn* // 13 ASU*
Allntwn: 4 Maine // 5 WMU // 10 Lowell // 14 Mich


Unless, for geography reasons, they swap UConn/Quinnipiac to Manchester vs #1 BC.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves - we have a ton of work to do the next 5 weeks...
Having never been there before, we'll get zero benefit of the doubt.

 

[Patman]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves - we have a ton of work to do the next 5 weeks...
Having never been there before, we'll get zero benefit of the doubt.

When I was measuring for Lowell, Lowell would have to tank 3 losses to end up just above QU... I'd imagine its 5 for UConn. HEA strength of schedule is just obnoxious.

 

[Patman]

The selection committee will shift teams to help with attendance . They have a long history of doing this.

NCAA hockey will not break bands, they did it once for a 3/4 seed 15 years ago and never heard the end of the howling

 

[Vowelguy]

NCAA hockey will not break bands, they did it once for a 3/4 seed 15 years ago and never heard the end of the howling

I was referring to across regions, not up/down seed lines. They definitely do the former.

 

[Viet Vet]

The selection committee will shift teams to help with attendance . They have a long history of doing this.

Yes, they will. But it is the antithesis of “earned”.

 

[Patman]

I was referring to across regions, not up/down seed lines. They definitely do the former.

yeah... look, anything below the 1 seed and you're liable to go almost anywhere and you don't want to be the 2 seed in a BC regional. if i were offered the off-regional national #4 and sent west, I'll take it.

 

[Viet Vet]

I'd much rather be a #2 seed in Manchester, NH or Allentown, PA (both within 3.5 hrs drive) than a #1 seed in Toledo or Fargo. Give me the opportunity to cheer IN PERSON!

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Scoe]

So how are the odds looking now.

 

[huskymedic]

So how are the odds looking now.

Get by Alaska-Anchorage Wednesday without screwing the pooch is now the mission:

NPI Probability Matrix

Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining college hockey games prior to Selection Day, to determine the probability of each team making the NCAA Tournament.

www.collegehockeynews.com

Pairwise Comparison Ratings

Pairwise Comparison Ratings

www.collegehockeynews.com

 

[dvegas]

Remember the cut line is actually #14 because the AHA & CCHA have autobids

 

[businesslawyer]

Remember the cut line is actually #14 because the AHA & CCHA have autobids

The cut line is 14 at best. More slots are lost if someone outside the top 14 wins one of the 4 leagues with teams in the top 14.

 

[Vowelguy]

2/10 Update

Manch: 1 BC* /// 8 UConn /// 8 Denver /// 29 HolyC*
Toledo: 2 MichSt* /// 7 OhioSt /// 8 BU /// 17 MinnSt*
FargoND: 3 Minn /// 6 Prov /// 12 Mich /// 13 ASU
Allntwn: 4 Maine /// 5 WMU* /// 11 Lowell /// 15 Quinn*

 

[SubbaBub]

Not buying it. There are 6 games left. Maine and BU will be tough, any losses to Colgate, Vermont, or NEx2, will cause a drop. Or metrics (win%) are also not as good as those teams below us in the Pairwise. Our ranking is juiced by the HE schedule. Need to win at least 4 to be safe from autobid stealer. You don't want to be ranked 14th going into selection day.

 

[UC15]

BU beating BC bumped them up to 6 and pairwise and us down a spot.

 

[Viet Vet]

We have Maine and BU at home. Opportunity knocks.

 

[zls44]

Not buying it. There are 6 games left. Maine and BU will be tough, any losses to Colgate, Vermont, or NEx2, will cause a drop. Or metrics (win%) are also not as good as those teams below us in the Pairwise. Our ranking is juiced by the HE schedule. Need to win at least 4 to be safe from autobid stealer. You don't want to be ranked 14th going into selection day.

What are you “not buying”? The math is the math. Do the pairwise predictor. They’ve got to be over .500 and not crash out against Alaska and Vermont. That is the bare minimum and will be sufficient.

 

[mac2351]

Currently there are 3 locks (a team that can lose all their remaining games and still make the field):

BC
Michigan State
Minnesota

 

[huskymedic]

 

[SubbaBub]

What are you “not buying”? The math is the math. Do the pairwise predictor. They’ve got to be over .500 and not crash out against Alaska and Vermont. That is the bare minimum and will be sufficient.

While Pairwise is better than Bracketology, it's not a lock. Losses to BU and Maine are very possible. We won't get much from beating Vermont, NE, Alaska. Ties, OT losses, losses to any of these teams, or crashing out the tournament will put other HE teams above us in the rankings very quickly.

As someone said, you don't want to be #14. HE is so deep, it could produce a bid thief. Win 3 of these next 4 home games and we can start talking about the NCAA.

Truthfully, I think we'll need to make the quarters or semis of the HET to feel good about getting a bid. Or we can win the thing and maybe sneak into the top 4 pending other results.

 

[Vowelguy]

While Pairwise is better than Bracketology, it's not a lock.

Ah perhaps you think Pairwise posted above is the predicted Pairwise? it's not. It's the current Pairwise. So if the season ended today, this is absolutely what the bracket would look like (other than possible minor shifting).

 

[dvegas]

Pairwise is literally updated as soon as games ends. It is the system for the non-automatic bids. Seedings are supposed to go as per Pairwise, the "committee" only makes tweeks so conference foes don't meet in the first round, to some extent to make sure top seeds don't have geographic disadvantages, or an entire pod has undesirable teams in terms of geography and/or fan support.

If you are in the top 14 (or less as per businesslawyers comment re: bid stealers/teams under .500), you are in. No committee to bend you (aka us/UConn) over for a spot you've earned.