Paige vs Top 25 teams

[Bone Dog]

Why did Bueckers beat out Clark their freshman years even though Clark’s productivity numbers were similarly better then than they are now?

I haven’t kept track of Clark’s efficiency numbers so far this year. Some I expect are better, some worse, due to less experienced teammates, but if she duplicates roughly 50/40 for shooting and Bueckers achieves 60/50, Clark achieves 2.0 A/T (though I bet that will be less this year) and Bueckers is greater than 2.5, then the difference between the two will be even more striking than their freshman seasons.

To return to the original question, why did Clark lose out to Bueckers her freshman season even though her productivity stats you just provided were much better?

IIRC, it was based on complex stats more than on direct ones like scoring or shooting percentages. Winshares and the like, or some such formulae. With players like these two an eyeball test of whose team goes further probably catches much of what the complex stats are trying to measure more precisely. Iowa and UConn will only go as far as Caitlin and Paige can carry them. If they both make it past the Sweet Sixteen, I think Caitlin is likely to win it.

 

[diggerfoot]

IIRC, it was based on complex stats more than on direct ones like scoring or shooting percentages. Winshares and the like, or some such formulae. With players like these two an eyeball test of whose team goes further probably catches much of what the complex stats are trying to measure more precisely. Iowa and UConn will only go as far as Caitlin and Paige can carry them. If they both make it past the Sweet Sixteen, I think Caitlin is likely to win it.

You are correct that the advanced metrics for both offensive and defensive efficiencies favored Bueckers her freshman year. Unfortunately, defense will not play much of a factor in NPOY voting. While the advanced metrics are better they are harder to access on a game to game basis for us casual onservers (at least for me), plus I do not think advanced metrics play much of a role in voting either.

 

[visitingcock]

Why did Bueckers beat out Clark their freshman years even though Clark’s productivity numbers were similarly better then than they are now?

I haven’t kept track of Clark’s efficiency numbers so far this year. Some I expect are better, some worse, due to less experienced teammates, but if she duplicates roughly 50/40 for shooting and Bueckers achieves 60/50, Clark achieves 2.0 A/T (though I bet that will be less this year) and Bueckers is greater than 2.5, then the difference between the two will be even more striking than their freshman seasons.

To return to the original question, why did Clark lose out to Bueckers her freshman season even though her productivity stats you just provided were much better?

Media platform?

Clark had no media platform as a frosh. Paige was doing it for a highly ranked program and dropping the winning shots on national tv against contenders - in overtime That's at least part of the problem

 

[diggerfoot]

points per game=Clarke..30.9....Bueckers...19.2
Assists per game=Clarke...7.6..Bueckers...4.1
Rebounds per game=Clarke...7.4...Bueckers...3.3
Bueckers is a great player but Clarke is just better..stats don't lie and the terrific plays that Bueckers makes Clarke makes as many if not more for her team..
Barring injury Clarke will win NPOY and I don't think it will be close

To hint at the answer to my previous question to you. There was an applicable reason for why Bueckers beat out Clark their freshman years that now favors Clark their senior years, but history already established it’s not about productivity numbers you think are the determinant.

 

[diggerfoot]

Media platform?

Clark had no media platform as a frosh. Paige was doing it for a highly ranked program and dropping the winning shots on national tv against contenders - in overtime That's at least part of the problem

Bingo!

 

[Bone Dog]

Media platform?

Clark had no media platform as a frosh. Paige was doing it for a highly ranked program and dropping the winning shots on national tv against contenders - in overtime That's at least part of the problem

I'm with @diggerfoot on this one. Bingo!
And thanks for expressing it so clearly, both of you!

 

[Rb335]

To hint at the answer to my previous question to you. There was an applicable reason for why Bueckers beat out Clark their freshman years that now favors Clark their senior years, but history already established it’s not about productivity numbers you think are the determinant.

It should be noted that Uconn lost 1 game prior to the NCAA tournament in Bueckers freshman year, vs 9 losses for Iowa. Clark had bigger stats, on less efficiency. But it wasn’t translating into more wins. Bueckers had good stats, great efficiency, was playing for a top team that was beating top teams. Lastly she had the media coverage advantage. This year Clark has that media advantage.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Her FG and FG3 %es are , well when I think of an appropriate descriptor I'll let you know.

 

[diggerfoot]

I understand my citing of stats makes it seem like that is what matters most. In a sense I mean almost the opposite. Defensive stats, advanced or otherwise, will not matter at all, while offensive stats matter in a post hoc fashion.

Certain players start out with a buzz for greatness. They are put on a list and stats provide a post hoc rationale as to whether that buzz os still merited. Observers watch who remains and form opinions not so much on stats but on performance in big games and big moments, with a bunch of “wow” moments thrown in. Stats play a small part, but play an even bigger role in post hoc justification. Had Clark won her freshman year people would say how important her productivity stats were. With Bueckers winning the focus and rationale was on efficiency,

I bring up the 60/50 shooting and 3.0 facilitating not so much because of the value of the stats, but because of what it means for off games. Bueckers may not reach those numbers, but to do so means her “off games” of something like 50/40 and 2.0 will not look like off games to voters. To maintain such high efficiency she will appear great in every single performance no matter the opponent or stakes.

In contrast, Clark will look like she is having an occasional ordinary or off game when/if she dips too far below 50/40 and 2.0 in those games, despite the productivity. “Off games” at the wrong times could make all the difference in the perceptions of voters that matter.

All conjecture, of course, since it is a big question as to whether Bueckers can reach 60/50 and 3.0 type efficiency.

 

[sun]

It was fitting when both Paige & Caitlin were named co-winners of the WBCA FOTY award in 2021.

 

[fomalhaut]

"Clark was honored Thursday as The Associated Press women's basketball Player of the Year. She received 20 votes from the 28-member national media panel that votes on the AP Top 25 each week. Voting was done before the NCAA tournament began."

AP POY is a minor award: the prestigious awards are Wade, Naismith, and Wooden. [Less so Wade, since it was tarnished when Bueckers was ineligible due to being a freshman.]

 

[WiseWillie]

points per game=Clarke..30.9....Bueckers...19.2
Assists per game=Clarke...7.6..Bueckers...4.1
Rebounds per game=Clarke...7.4...Bueckers...3.3
Bueckers is a great player but Clarke is just better..stats don't lie and the terrific plays that Bueckers makes Clarke makes as many if not more for her team..
Barring injury Clarke will win NPOY and I don't think it will be close

Stats without putting them into perspective can be deceiving. You obviously are a Clarke fan. No problem with that. You are entitled to your opinion. However, IMO Clarke may be great and might even get NPOY not the least of which is due to a Clarke publicity bandwagon that's been in overdrive for over a year while Bueckers was recovering from her ACL but IM- and many thousands of others - O, Bueckers is overall better.

 

[Bone Dog]

I understand my citing of stats makes it seem like that is what matters most. In a sense I mean almost the opposite. Defensive stats, advanced or otherwise, will not matter at all, while offensive stats matter in a post hoc fashion.

You’ve really put it just right. Stats function post hoc at best.

 

[MilfordHusky]

In Paige’s freshman season, UConn lost only 1 regular season game. That was against Arkansas, when Paige came alive late. She had “the shot” against Tennessee on a bad leg and “the game” against South Carolina. Paige shone in the spotlight.

 

[Alydar]

Unless Caitlin gets hurt or has a huge slump, I think she will be NPOY. But Paige could be unanimous All-American.

Bueckers did the POY thing 3 years ago. I'd bet that she has a different goal in mind.

 

[Amashutcha]

points per game=Clarke..30.9....Bueckers...19.2
Assists per game=Clarke...7.6..Bueckers...4.1
Rebounds per game=Clarke...7.4...Bueckers...3.3
Bueckers is a great player but Clarke is just better..stats don't lie and the terrific plays that Bueckers makes Clarke makes as many if not more for her team..
Barring injury Clarke will win NPOY and I don't think it will be close

I remember when Russel Westbrook averaged a triple-double for a season, yet you don't hear him in goat conversations. Stats can be empty. I'm not saying Caitlin's are, but stats can lie sometimes.

 

[Rb335]

In Paige’s freshman season, UConn lost only 1 regular season game. That was against Arkansas, when Paige came alive late. She had “the shot” against Tennessee on a bad leg and “the game” against South Carolina. Paige shone in the spotlight.

Exactly, and Iowa wasn’t slated to be a marquee team going into that season. Few of their games were on national TV and Clark was more under the radar for a while. Somewhat reminds me of Hidalgo this year.

Not saying Clark was better that year, just helped Paige that she was exposed to the media in big games, where she stepped up and took the award.

This year, it will be hard for Paige to recover from being exposed in big games that we lost. Getting outplayed or evenly played by Harmon, Rivers, and Rice. I expect she’ll be first team AA though.

 

[browns]

All of you are right saying Paige got most of the publicity her freshman year and rightly so..I'm a big fan of Uconn and Paige but enjoy watching CC play and now after what she did in the NCAA tourney Cailtlin gets most of the publicity..Geno said the only one who has ever carried a team through the tournament like Clark did was DT..high praise indeed.People who could care less about WCBB were tuning in to watch this girl play

 

[browns]

Exactly, and Iowa wasn’t slated to be a marquee team going into that season. Few of their games were on national TV and Clark was more under the radar for a while. Somewhat reminds me of Hidalgo this year.

Not saying Clark was better that year, just helped Paige that she was exposed to the media in big games, where she stepped up and took the award.

This year, it will be hard for Paige to recover from being exposed in big games that we lost. Getting outplayed or evenly played by Harmon, Rivers, and Rice. I expect she’ll be first team AA though.

I think before the year is over Hidalgo will get plenty of exposure especially playing for ND

 

[Bone Dog]

All of you are right saying Paige got most of the publicity her freshman year and rightly so..I'm a big fan of Uconn and Paige but enjoy watching CC play and now after what she did in the NCAA tourney Cailtlin gets most of the publicity..Geno said the only one who has ever carried a team through the tournament like Clark did was DT..high praise indeed.People who could care less about WCBB were tuning in to watch this girl play

Interesting that Geno seems to have forgotten how Paige carried UConn to an NC game. And she did it while held together with spit and glue, so to speak. I guess that's not exactly how DT did it.

 

[hoopsnloops32]

Interesting that Geno seems to have forgotten how Paige carried UConn to an NC game. And she did it while held together with spit and glue, so to speak. I guess that's not exactly how DT did it.

Ermmm Paige had more talent around her than DT did. Let’s simmer down here.

 

[Blacketh’D]

I just wish she could rack up more assists. Never really wanted to see her turn into a 2 guard.

 

[HuskyNan]

Updated stats for our Paigey