PAC-12 Chaos

[HuskyHawk]

If that is true, then waiting until 2036 is a death sentence to the remaining members. Why not start building the conference now that they want then when Clemson and whoever leaves?

If it isn't true, and I don't think it is, when why not make the conference stronger now so they avoid the inevitable collapse?

I actually think ESPN will approach the ACC in a few years to try to end that contract early. A linear contract like that will not be viable for ESPN in 2030.

There isn't anything they can do. The ACC GOR and deal is a blessing and a curse. It provides rock solid stability for over a decade. A school that thinks it is worth more can think that all it wants. Doesn't matter. Washington is definitely worth more than whatever the PAC will be able to pay them. Doesn't matter. Michigan doesn't get to cry about deserving more than Minnesota. They can all go back to when schools sold their own rights, but none of them would make as much as they do now in that model.

I have said for months now that the ACC weathering this current turmoil means it likely stays intact into the next contract, and it might expand. Even if Washington signs a new GOR with the PAC (and they will need to) it is still going to come up before the ACC GOR does. There aren't going to be any buyers for FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA in 2036.

 

[Rufus]

No fan base would be happier to see the Pac-12 die than BYU

Yes, Big 12 fans throughout the conference's central Plains footprint are enjoying the Pac-12's moment of crisis, anguish and possible death. If the Arizona schools follow Colorado out the door, that's the worst-case scenario for the P

trojanswire.usatoday.com

 

[Skiblets]

ACC is essentially the east coast version of the PAC with Clemson and FSU their USC and UCLA. They only have one time zone and no true viewing interests beyond ET.

If Clemson and FSU bolt in 2036 or sooner there’s not gonna be enough seats left when the music stops.

 

[JMick]

There isn't anything they can do. The ACC GOR and deal is a blessing and a curse. It provides rock solid stability for over a decade. A school that thinks it is worth more can think that all it wants. Doesn't matter. Washington is definitely worth more than whatever the PAC will be able to pay them. Doesn't matter. Michigan doesn't get to cry about deserving more than Minnesota. They can all go back to when schools sold their own rights, but none of them would make as much as they do now in that model.

I have said for months now that the ACC weathering this current turmoil means it likely stays intact into the next contract, and it might expand. Even if Washington signs a new GOR with the PAC (and they will need to) it is still going to come up before the ACC GOR does. There aren't going to be any buyers for FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA in 2036.

I think the fear for some of the schools is that ESPN might open the door to renegotiation and some schools like FSU might take advantage of that to bounce.

 

[tzznandrew]

There aren't going to be any buyers for FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA in 2036.

There are always going to be buyers for UNC and UVA. Those are the crown jewels of the ACC.

 

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[jostar1]

 

[Rufus]

An ACC/PAC scheduling agreement? Washington State @ Wake Forest. Where do I sign up?

 

[ZooCougar]

I wonder what the PAC9 are up to? Maybe an ACC merge?

 

[don356]

An ACC/PAC scheduling agreement? Washington State @ Wake Forest. Where do I sign up?

Yes, with now nine teams left, and two of them looking vigorously to leave, it reeks of desperation.

 

[gioff2323]

Yes, with now nine teams left, and two of them looking vigorously to leave, it reeks of desperation.

2? Who’s looking to stay?

 

[Patman]

Yes, with now nine teams left, and two of them looking vigorously to leave, it reeks of desperation.

It would just show how much trouble both parties seem to be in. I have to think that numbers will be their argument to staving off the big12 from being ahead of both of them in the long term before they lose members to the Big10 and maybe SEC.

 

[tzznandrew]

2? Who’s looking to stay?

My guess is that Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford would love for this to hold together, mostly so that they have a smooth transition into their next life in the B1G.

It is also exceedingly unlikely to me Wazzou, Utah, and Oregon State are getting a call from the B12, but I'd guess each would publicly support the PAC and try to keep it stable while advocating for their own entry (but also aware it may not come).

 

[Rufus]

If the PAC-12 is the "Conference of Champions", does that make the Titanic the "Ship of Champions"?

 

[The Yakk]

ACC is essentially the east coast version of the PAC with Clemson and FSU their USC and UCLA. They only have one time zone

Yes, but it is one helluva time zone!

 

[tzznandrew]

Yes, but it is one helluva time zone!

Seriously, it's the time zone that gives me real hope the B12 will pick us up.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is literally nothing more annoying on Twitter than the "I told you so" tweets from people that were just throwing spaghetti against a wall.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

ACC is essentially the east coast version of the PAC with Clemson and FSU their USC and UCLA. They only have one time zone and no true viewing interests beyond ET.

If Clemson and FSU bolt in 2036 or sooner there’s not gonna be enough seats left when the music stops.

Anyone who makes an argument whose premise is "football drives the bus" has no idea why any of the realignment moves are happening.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I am hoping the PAC-9 can somehow hold it together until UCONN is in the B12. Schools like Washington State and Oregon State should be pushing hard for PAC-9 to add 3 schools ASAP. Cal, Stanford, Washington, and Oregon should go along just to buy some time before they get into the B1G. We need the PAC-9 to hold it together for a few years. After UCONN gets into the B12, PAC-12 can fall apart.

 

[tzznandrew]

Anyone who makes an argument whose premise is "football drives the bus" has no idea why any of the realignment moves are happening.

The "football at the forefront" based moves haven't really worked out all that well. It's obviously a factor, and having some football history or a solid program is obviously paramount.

But yeah, people putting FSU and Clemson—and even Miami!—at the top of the ACC heap are seriously misjudging.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The ACC is royally hosed if the Big 12 gets UConn, because then the ACC would not have a single region where it actually controlled the market.

 

[Hoophound]

The ACC is royally hosed if the Big 12 gets UConn, because then the ACC would not have a single region where it actually controlled the market.

I think the problem they have is that FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA etc. will block anything that strengthens the ACC. They just want to be let out so they can go to the B1G or SEC. The ACC probably missed the boat on survival through expansion.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I think the problem they have is that FSU, Clemson, UNC, UVA etc. will block anything that strengthens the ACC. They just want to be let out so they can go to the B1G or SEC. The ACC probably missed the boat on survival through expansion.

That would be both stupid and suicidal by those schools to do that. The best thing they can do for their resumes to the SEC and Big 10 is to win in a strong conference. Destroying the ACC is like burning your own house to the ground while standing inside it. The ACC has been pretty stupid over the years, but even that league is smarter than to destroy itself just to teach its members a lesson.

 

[Hoophound]

That would be both stupid and suicidal by those schools to do that. The best thing they can do for their resumes to the SEC and Big 10 is to win in a strong conference. Destroying the ACC is like burning your own house to the ground while standing inside it. The ACC has been pretty stupid over the years, but even that league is smarter than to destroy itself just to teach its members a lesson.

I’m not sure they will hurt themselves at all by doing this. They will hurt the schools with no place to go.

 

[Rufus]

I’m not sure they will hurt themselves at all by doing this. They will hurt the schools with no place to go.

Bingo. Speaking of...........there are rumblings FSU is going to start the process of challenging the GOR next week. Flugaur reported it at the end of his PATC live show tonight.

 

[businesslawyer]

He may be laughing. He’s also correct, there’s no realistic amount that ESPN can add to the ACC deal at this time that would keep the ACC’s top schools in the fold past 2036 GIVEN CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES. 2036 is also a very long time so who knows what things will look like by then.

Clemson, also, is in a small market in a small state, isn’t a flagship, and is looked at as “maybe SEC” simply because for a few years it was one of 2 dominant programs in the country. If Clemson goes back to anywhere near its historical mean by ‘36, the SEC would have no interest. Getting into FL with FSU has reasons beyond the team is super hot and winning, but that’s all Clemson’s interest is based on.

 

[businesslawyer]

Yes, with now nine teams left, and two of them looking vigorously to leave, it reeks of desperation.

Can we be fair? Losing USC and UCLA put it on an entirely different footing, and losing UW and Oregon would make it hard to survive as a major conference. But losing Colorado, if it doesn’t start an exit, has no material effect whatsoever. Colorado is east of the Rockies and for the dozen years it was in the conference sucked in football and was well below average in hoops. The direct effect of them leaving is minimal.

Yes, if it causes a panic, that’s another matter. But if you’re UW, or UA, seriously, why do you care.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Clemson, also, is in a small market in a small state, isn’t a flagship, and is looked at as “maybe SEC” simply because for a few years it was one of 2 dominant programs in the country. If Clemson goes back to anywhere near its historical mean by ‘36, the SEC would have no interest. Getting into FL with FSU has reasons beyond the team is super hot and winning, but that’s all Clemson’s interest is based on.

SEC already has U Florida and U South Carolina. Also, it’s an ESPN league. I agree with you Clemson is trendy but they have history too. Still, why would ESPN agree to pay more (in the SEC) for two schools it has locked up until 2036 in the ACC. That’s always been a flaw in the assumption that they could leave.

 

[uconnyankee]

If that is true, then waiting until 2036 is a death sentence to the remaining members. Why not start building the conference now that they want then when Clemson and whoever leaves?

If it isn't true, and I don't think it is, when why not make the conference stronger now so they avoid the inevitable collapse?

I actually think ESPN will approach the ACC in a few years to try to end that contract early. A linear contract like that will not be viable for ESPN in 2030.

I think that’s the point people have been making. I’ve compared the ACC to Shrodingers cat. It’s alive, but it’s dead at the same time.

The schools that want out can’t get out without some crazy financial cost, and the dead weight will cling for their AD lives because the other options are worse.
So they have 13 years to figure something out.