I'd base my projections on the Mazzone era (Wyoming and Vandy). They were very competitive against "average" competition. If Tyler Phommachanh didn't get hurt they would have gone 1-1. So, beat the bad teams, projecting 500+ (Charlton, Mora > Mazzone, Spanos) against the average teams, and losses against the elite teams.
Bad teams (CCSU, UMass) 2 wins
Average Teams (Utah State, Syracuse, Fresno, FIU, Ball State, BC,Liberty, Army) 4 - 6 wins
Elite Teams ( Michigan, NCState ) 1 win against an overrated NC State team.
Between 7 and 9 wins.