Our Tournament Odds

[huskiesnyc]

The Houston game at home scares me the most. Potential trap game right before SMU, but we win that and USF/UCF we should be good.

 

[BoatShow]

I guess seeding is an amusing topic to discuss, but really does anyone believe this team has the ability to string 3 good games together to make any sort of postseason run? 7 seed. 11 seed. 3-1 in the next 4 games. Okay. Whatever, I guess.

Say we get the Brooklyn pod with a 9 seed. Would you want to be the 1 seed who potentially could play us in the next round? I think our defense can get us to the sweet 16.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

UConn needs to win all of their last 4 games and make it to the conference championship that involves a win against Cincinnati and/or Temple. With that, UConn should get a 6 or 7 seed and avoid the nightmare of being a 8/9 seed stuck playing a 1 seed in the second round at their home court for all intent.

 

[storrs15]

Honestly I think it's about luck. If we're a 9 seed there is a good chance we end up playing Villanova. And I will take that all day every day. Especially if that game ends up in Brooklyn.

I'm not big on seeding but is there a chance that we play Providence (8 seed) then Villanova the next round. Because I love those match ups.

 

[djct1999]

Honestly I think it's about luck. If we're a 9 seed there is a good chance we end up playing Villanova. And I will take that all day every day. Especially if that game ends up in Brooklyn.

I'm not big on seeding but is there a chance that we play Providence (8 seed) then Villanova the next round. Because I love those match ups.

So would the people at the Barclays. In whats shaping up to be a horrible year in college basketball, the best thing the NCAA can do is put UConn in Brooklyn.

 

[storrs15]

So would the people at the Barclays. In whats shaping up to be a horrible year in college basketball, the best thing the NCAA can do is put UConn in Brooklyn.

I was just making sure I wasn't missing anything that makes those matchups impossible.

If providence is another first round opportunity I think our odds are almost even more in our favor for a couple of early wins. Providence is an hour drive from Storrs and that place gets loud. Idk who the home fans would cheer for though. If it was UConn Villanova round of 32 we might be better off playing in a church considering how much PC fans hate both teams.

 

[CTBasketball]

We have a pretty similar resume to Temple's last year. The more I think the SMU game is a must win...

Human factor turns me away. We have 0 committee members representing the AAC in the selection committee.

 

[imno1]

rebounding and lay ups. Kinda the basics tell our season story.

Yes really the lay ups. Had we made most of those bunnies this would be a different season

 

[amory]

We have beaten-woman syndrome.

I don't care how many more wins we have. I won't believe we're in the dance until we win the AAC tourni and take it out of the committee's hands.

We know they view our conference as garbage. Looking at Loontardy's predictions as a point of support is very foolish.

WIN THE AAC tourni. No other route is certain. Don't leave it in the judges' hands.

Agreed. Don't care if we win out the regular season, I'll still be nervous because the committee has no respect for the AAC.

We need to win the conference tournament.

 

[ctchamps]

We should be in and I think we will be...the only concern is the undisguised contempt the committee has gone out of its way to show American Conference programs. I think that dings us by at least one and probably two bracket lines.

Looking forward to the day that Jalen states "And this is what happens when you dings us in the brackets" after NC #5!!!

 

[tzznandrew]

We have a pretty similar resume to Temple's last year. The more I think the SMU game is a must win...

Human factor turns me away. We have 0 committee members representing the AAC in the selection committee.

Eh. Not really. Temple had a loss to a 13-18 St. Joe's on their record, and a loss to a 17-15 UNLV. One was sub 175 the other sub 100. Those more than cancelled out their Kansas win considering they lost three times to SMU, and got embarrassed by 20+ against both Duke and Villanova.

Temple racked up their wins vs. the bottom of the league. They went 1-5 against SMU/Cincy/Tulsa.

Again, we don't look great in some ways, but we have Michigan and @Texas wins OOC, no bad losses, and no blow-out losses. Also, our advanced metrics are still much better than what Temple's were last year.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

Yeah, our resume is definitely better than Temple's was last year.

 

[CTBasketball]

Eh. Not really. Temple had a loss to a 13-18 St. Joe's on their record, and a loss to a 17-15 UNLV. One was sub 175 the other sub 100. Those more than cancelled out their Kansas win considering they lost three times to SMU, and got embarrassed by 20+ against both Duke and Villanova.

Temple racked up their wins vs. the bottom of the league. They went 1-5 against SMU/Cincy/Tulsa.

Again, we don't look great in some ways, but we have Michigan and @Texas wins OOC, no bad losses, and no blow-out losses. Also, our advanced metrics are still much better than what Temple's were last year.

They were 22-9 going into the AAC Tournament with an RPI of 34. I see double digit losses and AAC and it puts me on edge.

 

[tzznandrew]

They were 22-9 going into the AAC Tournament with an RPI of 34. I see double digit losses and AAC and it puts me on edge.

Right, but that's only a superficial look at their resume.

They were also:

BPI: 63
Sagarin: 62
1-5 vs. RPI 25
2-8 vs RPI 50
7-8 vs. RPI 100
16-2 vs. sub-100

UConn is, by contrast

BPI: 24
Sagarin: 27
1-1 vs. RPI 25 (with @Texas just outside)
3-2 vs. RPI 50 (with N-Michigan, N-Syracuse, Cincy games just outside just outside)
7-8 vs. RPI 100 (with 2 more to go)
12-0 vs. sub-100 (with 2 to go)

Temple played more Top 25 and Top 50 games than us, but they lost pretty much all of them.

 

[Jaker]

We need to just get in anyway possible. I have yet to see a team that I would call a favorite to win the title and everyone of the top seeds has issues and are beatable by UConn on a good night.

 

[3rdbass]

I wouldn't sleep on that usf game. It is a an away game with a big team whose perimeter players are improving . They just controlled Memphis down there. We have also had problems playing down there. We should win it but I'm scared about this game.

 

[4in16]

I wouldn't sleep on that usf game. It is a an away game with a big team whose perimeter players are improving . They just controlled Memphis down there. We have also had problems playing down there. We should win it but I'm scared about this game.

Memphis to put it bluntly is not good.

 

[Sommercamp]

Temple just helped us a little in terms of AAC tourney seeding by winning at Houston. Was tied with 30 seconds left.

One game at a time. Go Huskies! Beat USF!

 

[Gwynning]

What will the committee think of our being swept by two conference bubble teams -- Cincy and Temple?

We'll likely have to play at least one of them again in the AAC Tourney. If we're 0-5 against those two bubble teams at the end of the season, we might find ourselves on the outs with this year's committee. If we don't win, our fate is out of our hands.

 

[allday2345]

Lunardi updated this morning and has us as a 9 seed still

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

Will never be able to process going 0-4 against Temple and Cincy. Decent teams, no world beaters for sure. Figured 2-2 at worst. 3-1 more likely. Not winning any of those games hurts.

It's sickening. We're 3-9 in the regular season against Temple, Tulsa, and cinci over the last two years.

That's a joke. Those are average teams at best. 3-9!

But the coaches are doing a great job. It's all the players fault...

 

[7774]

It's sickening. We're 3-9 in the regular season against Temple, Tulsa, and cinci over the last two years.

That's a joke. Those are average teams at best. 3-9!

But the coaches are doing a great job. It's all the players fault...

Why even bother posting if you're just going to make up stuff like "those teams are average at best".

 

[storrs15]

It's sickening. We're 3-9 in the regular season against Temple, Tulsa, and cinci over the last two years.

That's a joke. Those are average teams at best. 3-9!

But the coaches are doing a great job. It's all the players fault...

What a dumb statement. If they were average teams we wouldnt be 3-9. In those 9 losses we got downright outplayed.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

Why even bother posting if you're just going to make up stuff like "those teams are average at best".

Hah. What am I making up? In the college basketball world, yes these are average teams and average programs. I think cinci was ranked once in those games. Pretty sure temple and Tulsa never were. So we're like 3-8 against unranked cinci Tulsa and temple. SICKKKKK

The average kenpom ranking for those teams over the last two years is 55. Last year they each lost 11 games. This year cinci has 8, Temple and Tulsa 9.

You call those good teams? Cinci is pretty good but Tulsa and temple are t. On the whole these are average teams.

Those stats aren't made up. Now if you want to call them "good teams", go ahead. I certainly wouldn't. And to be 3-9 against them when we are uconn is a joke.

 

[7774]

Hah. What am I making up? In the college basketball world, yes these are average teams and average programs. I think cinci was ranked once in those games. Pretty sure temple and Tulsa never were. So we're like 3-8 against unranked cinci Tulsa and temple. SICKKKKK

The average kenpom ranking for those teams over the last two years is 55. Last year they each lost 11 games. This year cinci has 8, Temple and Tulsa 9.

You call those good teams? Cinci is pretty good but Tulsa and temple are t. On the whole these are average teams.

. I'd love to hear your reply to these stats.

There are 350 D1 basketball teams. According to you, the teams we're talking about have a kenpom ranking of 55. If you try real hard, I think even you can figure out how those teams are not average based upon those 2 facts.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

What a dumb statement. If they were average teams we wouldnt be 3-9. In those 9 losses we got downright outplayed.

What does that even mean? If they we average we wouldn't be 3-9 against them? That makes no sense.

I'm using the term average relative to college basketball. They aren't Duke or Louisville. Or even some NBE schools. Or a lot of pho Rams really. These are middle of the pack programs. Why is that hard to understand? Replace average with ok. These are ok teams. Not particularly good ones. Is that better for you?

 

[storrs15]

Hah. What am I making up? In the college basketball world, yes these are average teams and average programs. I think cinci was ranked once in those games. Pretty sure temple and Tulsa never were. So we're like 3-8 against unranked cinci Tulsa and temple. SICKKKKK

The average kenpom ranking for those teams over the last two years is 55. Last year they each lost 11 games. This year cinci has 8, Temple and Tulsa 9.

You call those good teams? Cinci is pretty good but Tulsa and temple are t. On the whole these are average teams.

Those stats aren't made up. Now if you want to call them "good teams", go ahead. I certainly wouldn't. And to be 3-9 against them when we are uconn is a joke.

You call them "Average Teams" like we are so much better. Its context. If those teams are playing a top 5 team then yes, you could consider them average teams. However over the last two years their quality stacks up even with UConn, bubble teams.

 

[Ts5034]

It's sickening. We're 3-9 in the regular season against Temple, Tulsa, and cinci over the last two years.

That's a joke. Those are average teams at best. 3-9!

But the coaches are doing a great job. It's all the players fault...

If we split with Temple and Cincinnati, and thats asking much...we would currently be 21-6 with an 11-3 record in the league which would put us alone at the top. Thats a lot better than where we are right now and if that was the case, we are probably in the discussion for a 5-6 seed. The home games vs Temple and Cinci were games we could easily have had. That just shows how razor thin the margin if error has been.

 

[HuskiesAllDay]

There are 350 D1 basketball teams. According to you, the teams we're talking about have a kenpom ranking of 55. If you try real hard, I think even you can figure out how those teams are not average based upon those 2 facts.

Replace "average" with decent or ok and now id love your counterpoint. Obviously I didn't mean they are literally average statistically speaking.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Replace "average" with decent or ok and now id love your counterpoint. Obviously I didn't mean they are literally average statistically speaking.

God, shut up. You're wrong. They're not average teams. Cincinnati and Temple, in particular, have long successful histories in college basketball. Cincinnati is a borderline top-25 team. Does "average" mean anyone who isn't ranked to you? They're good teams. Now go away.