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Our Ceiling

Rutgers just beat the #1 team so Yes we could conceivably beat anyone on any given night and go on a run like in 2014 but we’re not on the same level as Duke, Baylor, Gonzaga, Purdue etc. Within the realm of realistic expectations the Sweet 16 would be a huge success
 
bendm said:
Rutgers just beat the #1 team so Yes we could conceivably beat anyone on any given night and go on a run like in 2014 but we’re not on the same level as Duke, Baylor, Gonzaga, Purdue etc. Within the realm of realistic expectations the Sweet 16 would be a huge success
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purdue almost lost again tonight to nc state
 
bendm said:
Rutgers just beat the #1 team so Yes we could conceivably beat anyone on any given night and go on a run like in 2014 but we’re not on the same level as Duke, Baylor, Gonzaga, Purdue etc. Within the realm of realistic expectations the Sweet 16 would be a huge success
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None of those teams are great, Baylor is the closest. Wide open year.
 
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bmayuc said:
The... gap between [Final 4 talent and Final 4 ready] is final 4 coaching
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bmayuc said:
The tournament is all about guard play, teams that are great at situational play and closing out half/games, and teams that play with confidence.

... we can get to sweet 16 on talent alone.
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I selectively quoted without putting words in your mouth by making changes.

Players come in as teenagers and leave in their young 20s. Coaches may last a few years or several decades. I've always regarded the Head Coach as the focal point within college basketball, and in contemplating this team's ceiling, everything is predicated on Danny Hurley having his best season ever. He and his staff are the agents who activate, harness, and guide the players to reach the various potentials that have been identified here, and to do so in a way that meshes their skills and temperaments individually and collectively.

It is very very difficult for any team to win 6 consecutive games against (mostly) unfamiliar competition that (by design and for the most part) gets increasingly more difficult with each game. Every year there's a team that does it, because, as has been said here many times, "Somebody has to do it." The most goofy, fun, and (at best) calming question is, "Why not us?"

I don't think there's anywhere near 75 teams that could ask that rhetorical question as though it's a literal one. And I do think that whatever a more realistic small number could pose such a question, we are rooting for one of those teams.

We go into Big East play realistically thinking that we're pretty good, versatile, currently compromised by significant injuries, and already demonstrating progress in addressing some of our already identified challenges and growth opportunities. The best teams are doing much the same.

The team looks very much worth watching. I can see great possibility, offer no predictions, and wish that I can feel confident within curious uncertainty 1 month, 2 months, and 3 months from now.
 
Hans Sprungfeld said:
I selectively quoted without putting words in your mouth by making changes.

Players come in as teenagers and leave in their young 20s. Coaches may last a few years or several decades. I've always regarded the Head Coach as the focal point within college basketball, and in contemplating this team's ceiling, everything is predicated on Danny Hurley having his best season ever. He and his staff are the agents who activate, harness, and guide the players to reach the various potentials that have been identified here, and to do so in a way that meshes their skills and temperaments individually and collectively.

It is very very difficult for any team to win 6 consecutive games against (mostly) unfamiliar competition that (by design and for the most part) gets increasingly more difficult with each game. Every year there's a team that does it, because, as has been said here many times, "Somebody has to do it." The most goofy, fun, and (at best) calming question is, "Why not us?"

I don't think there's anywhere near 75 teams that could ask that rhetorical question as though it's a literal one. And I do think that whatever a more realistic small number could pose such a question, we are rooting for one of those teams.

We go into Big East play realistically thinking that we're pretty good, versatile, currently compromised by significant injuries, and already demonstrating progress in addressing some of our already identified challenges and growth opportunities. The best teams are doing much the same.

The team looks very much worth watching. I can see great possibility, offer no predictions, and wish that I can feel confident within curious uncertainty 1 month, 2 months, and 3 months from now.
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Yea I think most of this is true - The part I don't agree with at all - and drives most of our difference here is that I'm not sure "already demonstrating progress in addressing some of our already identified challenges and growth opportunities" is true. Outside of Sanogo's offseason development, where is the growth? Where is the demonstrated progress?

This is biggest thing for me in assessing our chances this year, is to look after 10 games and see what progress has been made that makes me believe we leveled up. We have played the soft part of our calendar - the part where we would have 25 point games and give players chances to make mistakes or earn their spot - and the players who are going to separate/elevate themselves do it.

But we really haven't taken that step as a team and in our roles. I'm not sure what we've learned, and that is bad since we are 1/3 of the way through here.

RJ/Gaff are basically what they were last year - with Diggins getting no burn and Floyd RShirting, this is it - no playmaking calvalry coming, and we've seen our team be totally shut down a couple of times so far.

AJax/Hawk/Akok/Samson have been up and down. They've all flashed, and they've all disappeared. No consistency.

Tyrese is a beast, Whaley is a Wrench, Polley is streaky. No difference there.

We have a ton of talent. We lack guard play. We foul a lot. We knew that going in. I guess I just wished we knew more - or had made more of an effort to find out more from the unknown pieces.

Will be fun to watch this season play out!
 
bmayuc said:
Yea I think most of this is true - The part I don't agree with at all - and drives most of our difference here is that I'm not sure "already demonstrating progress in addressing some of our already identified challenges and growth opportunities" is true. Outside of Sanogo's offseason development, where is the growth? Where is the demonstrated progress?

This is biggest thing for me in assessing our chances this year, is to look after 10 games and see what progress has been made that makes me believe we leveled up. We have played the soft part of our calendar - the part where we would have 25 point games and give players chances to make mistakes or earn their spot - and the players who are going to separate/elevate themselves do it.

But we really haven't taken that step as a team and in our roles. I'm not sure what we've learned, and that is bad since we are 1/3 of the way through here.

RJ/Gaff are basically what they were last year - with Diggins getting no burn and Floyd RShirting, this is it - no playmaking calvalry coming, and we've seen our team be totally shut down a couple of times so far.

AJax/Hawk/Akok/Samson have been up and down. They've all flashed, and they've all disappeared. No consistency.

Tyrese is a beast, Whaley is a Wrench, Polley is streaky. No difference there.

We have a ton of talent. We lack guard play. We foul a lot. We knew that going in. I guess I just wished we knew more - or had made more of an effort to find out more from the unknown pieces.

Will be fun to watch this season play out!
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Growth from last year besides Sanogo?

Cole
Tyrese
Polley
Gaff (slightly but still a better player overall)
Akok (call that cheating if you want)

Whaley is the only No that I see
 
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Cole has definitely shown growth. Defensively they as a unit are much better than last year too. It's hard since many are upperclassmen so you won't see the same level of growth as with a freshman, but we lost our best player to the lottery and yet we're better than last year. Don't know if that would be possible without there being growth.
 
bmayuc said:
Yea I think most of this is true - The part I don't agree with at all - and drives most of our difference here is that I'm not sure "already demonstrating progress in addressing some of our already identified challenges and growth opportunities" is true. Outside of Sanogo's offseason development, where is the growth? Where is the demonstrated progress?

This is biggest thing for me in assessing our chances this year, is to look after 10 games and see what progress has been made that makes me believe we leveled up. We have played the soft part of our calendar - the part where we would have 25 point games and give players chances to make mistakes or earn their spot - and the players who are going to separate/elevate themselves do it.

But we really haven't taken that step as a team and in our roles. I'm not sure what we've learned, and that is bad since we are 1/3 of the way through here.

RJ/Gaff are basically what they were last year - with Diggins getting no burn and Floyd RShirting, this is it - no playmaking calvalry coming, and we've seen our team be totally shut down a couple of times so far.

AJax/Hawk/Akok/Samson have been up and down. They've all flashed, and they've all disappeared. No consistency.

Tyrese is a beast, Whaley is a Wrench, Polley is streaky. No difference there.

We have a ton of talent. We lack guard play. We foul a lot. We knew that going in. I guess I just wished we knew more - or had made more of an effort to find out more from the unknown pieces.

Will be fun to watch this season play out!
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Others here have weighed in on off-season growth and pre-season preparation.

My "already being addressed" phrase was written with reference to what has been uncovered in the first month of the season.

I think that each season has its high anticipation in advance, wild mood swings between irrational exuberance & intractable despair during the unveiling of the team in competition, and, if the team is not a washout, a seasonal arc that responds to identified issues & challenges.

Many of the issues & challenges for this season are holdovers from prior seasons. Some people are impatient that these haven't always been settled once and for all. Others, like myself, aren't so surprised that this is the case. To that extent, closing out games was a massive issue 2 seasons ago, a continued though less massive issue last year, and a remaining issue today. Prior to the opening of the Big East season, the team is 3-2 in such games, including a P5 win. I believe that both the Michigan State and West Virginia losses were winnable games that were disappointing losses. But neither was a disaster, so much as they were confirmation that, yep, this is still a thing. Last Saturday's game was tense and imperfect, but the final 4 minutes were successful after the insecurities of the prior 4 minutes likely had many watchers going, "OMIGOD no, not again."
 
bmayuc said:
I love you all but you're all mad hatters.

The tournament is all about guard play, teams that are great at situational play and closing out half/games, and teams that play with confidence.

Those are precisely our 3 biggest weaknesses. We play inefficiently and leave a lot of points in the board. We STRUGGLE big-time defending without fouling and getting stops, especially against good guards.

On talent, we can get to sweet 16 on talent alone, but we are just as likely to lose in Rd 1 cuz we lose our nerve and a 13 seed hits a bunch of 3s.
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and I am going to agree ... and then go the other way

RJ Cole has given us hope. We win when a guard shows leadership and chutzpah to get those key points late in shot clocks and late in games. In a year that is simply chaotic, that's a puncher's chance. Baylor and Gonzaga and Duke and UCLA ... all good. But there is nothing there telling me that in a tight last 4 minutes, they have an RJ. Or anything comparable
 
superjohn said:
They just lost to Rutgers who didn't even have Geo Baker. Rutgers is horrible.
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AntG168 said:
Or Purdue didn’t do against Rutgers who is worse than both?
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yes and UVA lost to baltimore but that doesnt mean UVA wasnt an elite team and wouldnt beat baltimore 9/10 times. of course anything can happen in a single elimination tourney, just like it did in 2014, but that doesnt mean it's relatively probable
 
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Average expectations should be 4/5 seed assuming we keep playing how we are currently. I think if we get any degree of consistency with our shooting and no more injuries to key players (and acknowledging Hurley teams always get better as the year goes on), a reasonable high-end/ceiling potential for the team is a 3 seed in the tournament, make the Sweet 16, and push for an elite 8. If every single player hits their ceiling somehow we could win it all but that obviously isn't a realistic expectation.
 
BigErnMcCracken said:
Loyola Chicago was no ones preseason Final Four pick when they went.
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Actually, I know a guy who predicted it pre season. Of course he's an alum season ticket holder married to an alum, whose entire fairly is alums. But that was the only year he predicted it, so it was based on more than him being Loyola's version of Scrappy.
 
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bendm said:
yes and UVA lost to baltimore but that doesnt mean UVA wasnt an elite team and wouldnt beat baltimore 9/10 times. of course anything can happen in a single elimination tourney, just like it did in 2014, but that doesnt mean it's relatively probable
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I guess I'm just not seeing what makes Purdue Elite. Nova led them all game and fell apart in the last few minutes because they have no bench, they lost to a horrible Ruttie team who was down one of their best players.
 
superjohn said:
I guess I'm just not seeing what makes Purdue Elite. Nova led them all game and fell apart in the last few minutes because they have no bench, they lost to a horrible Ruttie team who was down one of their best players.
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i still think they're the best of the big10. we'll see how it plays out. but if you don't think purdue is elite when they have an all american in ivey and a big that can throw up a triple double coming off the bench then we can't be considered as such
 
bendm said:
i still think they're the best of the big10. we'll see how it plays out. but if you don't think purdue is elite when they have an all american in ivey and a big that can throw up a triple double coming off the bench then we can't be considered as such
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1 game doesn't dictate if a team is or isn't elite. Way too early to start throwing around those titles. B1G and Big East play will show who are top teams. Boiler Up
 
superjohn said:
I guess I'm just not seeing what makes Purdue Elite. Nova led them all game and fell apart in the last few minutes because they have no bench, they lost to a horrible Ruttie team who was down one of their best players.
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Best big man duo in college basketball. Lottery pick guard, great shooting wing. Depth might be an issue, but most great teams play 7 guys at most.
 
From what I’ve seen Cole is great because he can put it on the floor to the hoop and also make a 3. Who else do we have to drive to the rim late in game? Gaffney. Hence our weakness and limitations. If Hawkins can be assertive, control the ball and become that guy then our ceiling goes way up but right now no.
 
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I am becoming increasingly concerned we are seeing Hurley's ceiling as a coach. Great recruiter and manager of talent. Simply awful on game day.

In the A10 you can be a winner by working harder than everyone and recruiting well. It'll even get you a bunch of wins in the Big East. Especially if we continue to elevate our recruiting.

What it won't do is have years of conference dominance or deep runs in the tournament. You HAVE to be able to coach a half court offense, make adjustments, and call timeouts as a high major coach. You have to have something more to your defense than high hedge and work hard. Izzo, Cooley, Huggins have outcoached him badly. Bruce Pearl gave him a run for his money and he's terrible.

I worry it's good enough to not get him fired in a few years without tourney success, but never good enough to see the elite 8s ans finals 4s we want as a fan base.
 
husky429 said:
I am becoming increasingly concerned we are seeing Hurley's ceiling as a coach. Great recruiter and manager of talent. Simply awful on game day.

In the A10 you can be a winner by working harder than everyone and recruiting well. It'll even get you a bunch of wins in the Big East. Especially if we continue to elevate our recruiting.

What it won't do is have years of conference dominance or deep runs in the tournament. You HAVE to be able to coach a half court offense, make adjustments, and call timeouts as a high major coach. You have to have something more to your defense than high hedge and work hard. Izzo, Cooley, Huggins have outcoached him badly. Bruce Pearl gave him a run for his money and he's terrible.

I worry it's good enough to not get him fired in a few years without tourney success, but never good enough to see the elite 8s ans finals 4s we want as a fan base.
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I have the same worries, he has far too much experience to be this lost at this point. The culture and recruiting is great but you have to be able to coach. I'm worried the poor coaching could start to impact those other things.
 
OkaForPrez said:
If...

  • RJ can continue to perform at this level against high major talent trying to take him away
  • AJ does more rebounding and pushing tempo and less forcing passes that aren’t there and takes the shots the defense gives him.
  • Adama learns to read a double team early and find the open man
  • Akok becomes more aggressive with his offense while on the floor.
  • Gaffney plays tougher with the ball in his hands and stops turning the ball over.
  • Polley can be more 37% nightly and less 10%, 50%, 10%, 50%.
  • Hawk starts playing like an almost sophomore and with confidence.
  • Martin can eliminate his yips around the rim.
  • Zay can stay out of foul trouble while staying aggressive and making the open 3.
Then...this can be a final four team. Watching the IFs is what makes it fun.
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Vs Providence on the ifs:
RJ - fail
AJ - pass
Adama - INC
Akok - fail
Gaff - fail
Polley-fail
Hawk-fail
Martin -inc?
Zay-pass
 
I wouldn't say I'm concerned he's not the answer but I think it's time to accept Hurley can't coach offense. Doesn't mean he can't succeed as coach, but he needs to change something to make up for it. Maybe it's playing the freshman, maybe it's bringing in more scorers before next season, but something has to change
 
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