Ouch, Buzz Williams doesn't believe in NBE

[nelsonmuntz]

I think there is a lot of linear thinking on this topic. Also, every post everyone makes just attacks the Big East without making an affirmative case for why being in the AAC is a good idea. If you can only defend something by attacking the alternative, you don't have a strong argument.

People also need to stop including the Big East exit fees in the analysis only if we stay in the AAC. We have earned anywhere from 20-30% of them already, and by the time we would leave, we will have earned well over 50%, maybe has high as 80% of them.

 

[Stray_Dog]

Nelson said: I am not flat out wrong about the NBE being better financially than the AAC. The math is pretty freaking simple. Depaul gets 2x what we get. What don't you understand about that? Is it clearer to you if I say Seton Hall gets 2x what we get? How about Providence getting 2x what we get? Let me know if you still don't get it.

You are using a single data point to craft your position. When considered in its totality you'll realize that:

• Depaul won't see any of the BCS payout in the current year
• Depaul won't see any of the G5 payout for new playoff system which is valued around $20M per conference
• Depaul won't see any revenue generated from an elite bowl appearance
• Depaul won't see any revenue generated from contract bowls
• Depaul won't see any revenue from a football program that's still in the black
• Depaul won't see any of prorated NCAA credits dating back to 5 years ago as well as NCAA credits earned last year (*see below)
• Depaul wont' have the national visibility that AAC teams will have, which can be leveraged
• Depaul won't receive $4M-$6.7M a year that UConn, Cincy and South Florida will receive
• Depaul won't receive any revenue from Louisville and/or Rutgers exit fees

Now let's throw a $10M exit fee (or more) and forfeit future revenue to join the NBE. Still think it makes economic sense?

Nelson said: You are arguing that the Big East exit fees influence the decision, and then conflating those with being in the AAC. Let me make one thing clear for you, which I have said before:

I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THE BIG EAST EXIT FEES MATTER.

Good, since they do matter, why would it be removed from the equation?

Nelson Said: Stop acting like you have some tremendous insight with that. And stop conflating the Big East exit fees with the AAC economics. They are separate, unless you have some way to create a new stream of exit fees in the future.

They are not separate. I worry about UConn economics.

Nelson Said: Now, what you have also done, is stretch out how far the Big East exit fees are getting paid. Do you have a link that breaks that down? Is it straight line or declining? I also have not seen a link defining the new AAC exit penalty and timetable. $10MM was equal to a about 1.5x the conference payout in the Big East. Now $10MM would be equal to closer to 2.0x the annual conference payout. Maybe it is still $10MM, but i would like to see a link for that.

http://cincyontheprowl.com/2013/05/21/big-east-payout-to-cincinnati-could-be-10-million-less-than-projected/

The link you posted above has a time line. Did you read it? It was initially thought the payout was $30M but it ended being closer to $20M. This article says it will be paid out over 4-5 years. Other articles have suggested 3-5 years. Let's split the difference and say 4 years, which is $5M a year. That amount alone is greater than the NBE TV contract. Here's a couple of other links, but the one you provided works just fine.

http://articles.courant.com/2013-03...ools-pittsburgh-and-syracuse-football-schools

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...bury-american-athletic-conference-mike-aresco

Nelson Said: That is $20MM, of which it is safe to assume we have already earned $4MM, and maybe we are closer to $8MM. Do we hang on to the bitter end of those exit fees, or do we start working the networks for a better deal before that revenue stream runs out?

The better deal will come through either joining a P5 conference or building our football brand by winning and being on national television week in and week out. Putting all the indy challenges aside, if you told me when would make more by going indy today, I would be up for it. But that's not the case. If it was, we would be in a P5 conference. But that doesn't mean it can't happen in the near future.

Nelson Said: The playoff money for the G5 conferences does not cut out Army, Navy and BYU. I am sure they get their fair share, so going indy should be neutral on that basis.

Notre Dame will receive slightly less than 1 percent of the annual revenue (about $3.5 million). The remaining FBS independents will split 0.5 percent. So .5 percent split 5 ways equals 0.1% or based upon estimates, about $350K. AAC teams will receive a little more than $1.8M with 11 teams in the league. Slightly less if the conference goes to 12 or slightly more if the playoffs generate greater revenue.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...f-revenue-money-distribution-payouts/1762709/


Nelson, enjoy UConn. Worry less about NBE.

*The C7 retained NCAA units which are reported to be valued around $720k per team this year. Next year the figure drops down to $560K per team, and so on. This is in addition to the $150K per team the NBE east earned for this year's performance. The AAC appears to have retained retained the units for all non C7 schools, i.e., Syracuse, West Virginia, Louisville, and Pittsburgh - as well as units earned by UConn, Cincy, and South Florida (After not paying an exit fee Notre Dame took their lousy 5 units along with a small portion of the reserve fund). The payout this year for trailing 5 years appears to total $19M or $1.9M per school. In addition to that amount, this year the AAC has earned $2.25M and counting, which translates to $13.5M over 6 years.

...and on that note, I think this argument is finished!!!

 

[billybud]

Read that Shaka turned down Marquette.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Yep, turned down Marquette. Likely because looking at this year’s NCAA tournament, the A-10 has more teams and appears stronger overall than the Fake Big E. It would be a step down. Guessing he holds out for a ACC/B1G job opening.

http://tracking.si.com/2014/03/27/shaka-smart-marquette-offer-job-vcu-staying

 

[Stray_Dog]

I think there is a lot of linear thinking on this topic. Also, every post everyone makes just attacks the Big East without making an affirmative case for why being in the AAC is a good idea. If you can only defend something by attacking the alternative, you don't have a strong argument.

People also need to stop including the Big East exit fees in the analysis only if we stay in the AAC. We have earned anywhere from 20-30% of them already, and by the time we would leave, we will have earned well over 50%, maybe has high as 80% of them.

So because I can't make a case for staying or accepting the AAC, I should take the linear black and white approach that the only viable alternative currently is jumping this titanic of a conference and going to the New Big East which has much upside again??? When you lose one argument you come back with the most ridiculous approach yet.
Let me blunt, No one likes either choice. We stay in the AAC and we get to keep our investment hopes alive (barely yes but alive). We move to the New Big East as you suggest, and our investment hopes are greatly reduced -almost but not quite destroyed. But what P5 conference would want us then? We already have great basketball...so the New Big East does what...Keeps us competitive - really??? and how did they do so far in this years NCAA tournament.
By the way no one is attacking the Big East, we are defending the current position of staying in the AAC when people like you suggest that we move to the new Big East. The reality is most of us see moving to the New Big East as a step backward and at best we can only see the argument for going as something lateral because we want local competition. Well, the days of local competition are gone. We are not going back and by the time we did, you won't see Villanova, Georgetown, St. Johns, SHU, Providence, or any of the other Big East schools playing to the level of competition they once did. The ACC is more like the old Big East than the New Big East. Where did the best basketball schools go? But you want to think that the new Big East will somehow become a basketball haven holding the torch for everyone to come see -NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! But you are right about one thing and no one here has nor will dispute you about it, eventually 4-5 years from the basketball in the AAC will be just as good as the basketball in the A-10 (see how they did in the NCAA tournament this year vs. the nBE), or nBE. We do need to get out and quickly but right now and get this, I will say it only once, THE FRUSTRATING THING FOR EVERYONE IS WE HAVE NOWHERE ELSE TO GO!!!

 

[ZooCougar]

Shaka Smart's next move will be to a blue blood on par with KU, UConn, UNC, etc.

He's not jumping from VCU to coach in the FBE.

 

[itgoeslike]

Shaka turned down UCLA. I couldn't see him taking the Marquette offer.

Marquette is good program with great fan support, but they'll find themselves in a tough position to get top tier coaches moving forward. They would be better served getting a talented top assistant looking to make his mark.