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To be safe I would add San Diego St, Valpo, and Ark-Little Rock to the listThey're pretty much right. The scenario you present moves us about 2 spots down in the RPI. Essentially flat.
What we (and any bubble team) needs to do is root for the following mid majors to win the conference tourneys:
Dayton
Wichita St
Monmouth
St Mary's (possibly)
Nova or Xavier ( )