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Talked about this little yesterday, but Lunardi believes there are 17 true "bubble" teams going for 9 spots. He then has 7 teams that are true long shots Here is his list:
Probable (5). These teams have a 65 percent T.O.P or better and should make the tournament, provided they suffer "no bad losses" down the stretch: Syracuse, Providence, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Connecticut.
Coin flip (8). These teams are in the 50/50 T.O.P range and need at least one more "good win" to make the field: Michigan, Butler, Florida, Oregon State, Gonzaga, Tulsa, St. Bonaventure, Alabama.
Possible (4). These teams have a 35 percent T.O.P. or lower and need a really big finish and/or deep conference-tournament run: George Washington, Ohio State, Washington, LSU.
Long shots (7). These teams aren't completely off the board, but they better not lose before their respective conference-championship games. In a typical year, no one from this category actually makes the tournament: BYU, Stanford, Creighton, Clemson, Florida State, Marquette, Georgia Tech.
Let's focus on those 17 teams. For the probables. Syracuse lost last night, and is on the road this weekend at Florida St. Providence has Creighton at home and is at St. John's. Vandy has Tennessee at home and & Texas AM this week. Cincy is at Houston and home to SMU.
For the teams behind us: Michigan has only Iowa at home this week. Butler has Seton Hall and Marquette at home. Florida has Kentucky at home tonight, and is at Missouri. Oregon State has USC and UCLA on the road this week. Tulsa hosts USF in their only game this week. St. Bonaventure has St. Joes, and is at St. Louis. And Alabama has Arkansas, and at Georgia.
For the possible teams that need work, George Washington has George Mason, and at Davidson. Ohio State is at Michigan St. this week in their only game. Washington hosts Washington St this week. And finally LSU hosts Missouri and is at Kentucky.
Quick analysis: a lot of these teams only have one game this week, and they are tough games. While these teams are not playing each other this week, a lot of them come from the same leagues, so they will knock each other out in conference tournaments.
The bubble watch seemed to indicate this week that a loss at SMU and a win against UCF will keep us status quo in terms of where we are at right now. Not sure if I agree with that, but I get their point.
I will continue to say that a 2-0 week gets us in, and if we do lose to SMU and beat UCF, I think we need to win a game in the American. I do think there is a slight chance we could get in the field if we went 1-1 this week and lost our first game in the conference tournament, if everything broke right.
The bubble is terribly weak this year. Our numbers still stack up good, and we will play a good opponent (metrics wise) in the American tournament whether it is Houston or Cincy. The lack of a Top 100 + loss is saving us at this point, while other teams (like Tulsa) have a couple of these.
Probable (5). These teams have a 65 percent T.O.P or better and should make the tournament, provided they suffer "no bad losses" down the stretch: Syracuse, Providence, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Connecticut.
Coin flip (8). These teams are in the 50/50 T.O.P range and need at least one more "good win" to make the field: Michigan, Butler, Florida, Oregon State, Gonzaga, Tulsa, St. Bonaventure, Alabama.
Possible (4). These teams have a 35 percent T.O.P. or lower and need a really big finish and/or deep conference-tournament run: George Washington, Ohio State, Washington, LSU.
Long shots (7). These teams aren't completely off the board, but they better not lose before their respective conference-championship games. In a typical year, no one from this category actually makes the tournament: BYU, Stanford, Creighton, Clemson, Florida State, Marquette, Georgia Tech.
Let's focus on those 17 teams. For the probables. Syracuse lost last night, and is on the road this weekend at Florida St. Providence has Creighton at home and is at St. John's. Vandy has Tennessee at home and & Texas AM this week. Cincy is at Houston and home to SMU.
For the teams behind us: Michigan has only Iowa at home this week. Butler has Seton Hall and Marquette at home. Florida has Kentucky at home tonight, and is at Missouri. Oregon State has USC and UCLA on the road this week. Tulsa hosts USF in their only game this week. St. Bonaventure has St. Joes, and is at St. Louis. And Alabama has Arkansas, and at Georgia.
For the possible teams that need work, George Washington has George Mason, and at Davidson. Ohio State is at Michigan St. this week in their only game. Washington hosts Washington St this week. And finally LSU hosts Missouri and is at Kentucky.
Quick analysis: a lot of these teams only have one game this week, and they are tough games. While these teams are not playing each other this week, a lot of them come from the same leagues, so they will knock each other out in conference tournaments.
The bubble watch seemed to indicate this week that a loss at SMU and a win against UCF will keep us status quo in terms of where we are at right now. Not sure if I agree with that, but I get their point.
I will continue to say that a 2-0 week gets us in, and if we do lose to SMU and beat UCF, I think we need to win a game in the American. I do think there is a slight chance we could get in the field if we went 1-1 this week and lost our first game in the conference tournament, if everything broke right.
The bubble is terribly weak this year. Our numbers still stack up good, and we will play a good opponent (metrics wise) in the American tournament whether it is Houston or Cincy. The lack of a Top 100 + loss is saving us at this point, while other teams (like Tulsa) have a couple of these.
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