OT: You Only Get One Shot | Page 2 | The Boneyard

OT: You Only Get One Shot

Which shot will you take?

  • Layup for 50k

    Votes: 70 45.5%

  • Free Throw for 100k

    Votes: 19 12.3%

  • Top of the Key 3-pointer for 500k

    Votes: 15 9.7%

  • Wing 3-pointer for 750k

    Votes: 14 9.1%

  • Corner 3-pointer for 1 million

    Votes: 36 23.4%
  • Total voters
    154
My dad always said the corner three was the easiest long shot in basketball. I never really understood why. I need that box backround because im banking everything. I would probably miss the layup. So i might as well miss something else for more cash. So I go wing three for $750
 
Depends if I get time to warm up or not. At my age, shooting cold my three point percentage would be ridiculously low. With a little warm-up time and then having to take one shot, I would probably go with the wing three. Isn’t the old saying, “750K in the hand is worth 1Mill in the bush?”

Note: a student of mine entered me in a foul shooting contest at Chapel Hill during a UNC versus Virginia basketball game. When my name was called to actually shoot the free throws at halftime, I realized I was wearing an unrelated orange shirt so I had to borrow a replacement from complete strangers because I did not want to be wearing Virginia orange at a UNC foul shooting contest.

I was shooting pretty decent and had hit eight or nine consecutively, but the cheerleaders were taking forever to return the basketball to me, throwing my rhythm way off. One time they even chose to chase down a ball that rolled away rather than reach back into the rack for a close one. I was begging them to speed up the passes. When they said, “Stop,” the public address announcer said the winner was Joe Smith (or something like that) I put my head down dejectedly when the UNC representative put his arm around my shoulder and whispered “No, you won, they just couldn’t say your name!” I still have a copy of the check I earned that day. Had I hit two more I would’ve been in a later contest due to the consecutive makes, plus the check would have been much larger. I attribute the failure to the cheerleaders. Coincidentally, a good friend of mine was chosen to take a halftime shot, which was a dreadful airball. The funny part was, Dick Vitale walked by and said to me, “Man, UNC could’ve used you today.”
 
SCNCHuskie said:
Depends if I get time to warm up or not. At my age, shooting cold my three point percentage would be ridiculously low. With a little warm-up time and then having to take one shot, I would probably go with the wing three. Isn’t the old saying, “750K in the hand is worth 1Mill in the bush?”

Note: a student of mine entered me in a foul shooting contest at Chapel Hill during a UNC versus Virginia basketball game. When my name was called to actually shoot the free throws at halftime, I realized I was wearing an unrelated orange shirt so I had to borrow a replacement from complete strangers because I did not want to be wearing Virginia orange at a UNC foul shooting contest.

I was shooting pretty decent and had hit eight or nine consecutively, but the cheerleaders were taking forever to return the basketball to me, throwing my rhythm way off. One time they even chose to chase down a ball that rolled away rather than reach back into the rack for a close one. I was begging them to speed up the passes. When they said, “Stop,” the public address announcer said the winner was Joe Smith (or something like that) I put my head down dejectedly when the UNC representative put his arm around my shoulder and whispered “No, you won, they just couldn’t say your name!” I still have a copy of the check I earned that day. Had I hit two more I would’ve been in a later contest due to the consecutive makes, plus the check would have been much larger. I attribute the failure to the cheerleaders. Coincidentally, a good friend of mine was chosen to take a halftime shot, which was a dreadful airball. The funny part was, Dick Vitale walked by and said to me, “Man, UNC could’ve used you today.”
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In all fairness to the UNC announcer, probably only one in a hundred could correctly pronounce Scnchuskie.
 
Candy for a baby. Corner 3, the Bazz style with right foot extended. I can shoot them 8 out of 10. Yo.
 
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The picture is of an nba court meaning the corner 3 is closer than the top of the key or wing 3, so idk why the corner 3 is worth more
 
Boneyard has to recruit more shooters. 25% from the corner?

Very weak! Go big or go home!
 
Free throw. Practice them more than any other shot, and I surprise myself with the layups i miss.
 
bendm said:
The picture is of an nba court meaning the corner 3 is closer than the top of the key or wing 3, so idk why the corner 3 is worth more
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No potential of backboard assistance?
 
I would have the same nerves going for a layup or taking a 3 from the wing, so give me the 3 from the wing for 15x more value
 
.-.
Walk into the arena-Pick up the ball with no warmups-Draw iron on your first shot from your spot(except layups) Gotta be worth something! Amirite? LOL
 
It's an easy choice for me.

I once made 29 free throws in a row.

That was over thirty years ago, but you never really lose the stroke, right?
 
Mr. Wonderful said:
It's an easy choice for me.

I once made 29 free throws in a row.

That was over thirty years ago, but you never really lose the stroke, right?
Expand ...
Right. You're exactly the same as you were over 30 years ago. ;^)
 
Corner 3. It's closer to the rim due to the configuration of the line.
 
Hey Adrien! said:


I'm going with the wing 3-pointer (750k).

I've always been a poor free throw shooter and, to me, a wing vs top of the key three-pointer is the same difficulty. My baseline threes are under 20% with lack of a backboard.

Part of me is like ''take the easy layup money, pay those bills!" but I'l take the 30ish% chance of making the three over a nearly guaranteed 50k. It's a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
Expand ...

Let's consider this from an expected value point of view. I'm probably:

98% to make the layup --> 50K * 0.98 = 49K EV
70% to make the free throw --> 100K * 0.7 = 70K EV
30% to make the top of the key 3 --> 500K * 0.3 = 150K EV
20% to make the wing 3 --> 750K * 0.2 = 150K EV
10% to make the corner 3 --> 1000K *0.1 = 100K EV

So if the value of money is linear to me, I'm probably going with the top of the key 3.

However, the value of money isn't necessarily linear, might be closer to logarithmic. I'd consider the free throw. But probably the top of the key 3. It'd be hard to pass up a 5x increase in payoff for a shot from 7 feet farther away.

Edit: can I revise my answer? If it's shooting on that court, the corner "3" looks like it's about 16 feet. I'll go with that one lol
 
.-.
bendm said:
The picture is of an nba court meaning the corner 3 is closer than the top of the key or wing 3, so idk why the corner 3 is worth more
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Look closer, friend, the arc is tangent to the top of the semi-circle. It's not an NBA court. It's just a really narrow 1900s-era college court. Either way, the corner 3 is much closer, though I still hate the sight line.
 
At my age it’s the layup , that’s a new maybe 2 new Bsthtooms and peace and tranquility will reign for a few months .
A million would make my heirs and the IRS happy but it’s not the lute it once was .
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Let's consider this from an expected value point of view. I'm probably:

98% to make the layup --> 50K * 0.98 = 49K EV
70% to make the free throw --> 100K * 0.7 = 70K EV
30% to make the top of the key 3 --> 500K * 0.3 = 150K EV
20% to make the wing 3 --> 750K * 0.2 = 150K EV
10% to make the corner 3 --> 1000K *0.1 = 100K EV

So if the value of money is linear to me, I'm probably going with the top of the key 3.

However, the value of money isn't necessarily linear, might be closer to logarithmic. I'd consider the free throw. But probably the top of the key 3. It'd be hard to pass up a 5x increase in payoff for a shot from 7 feet farther away.

Edit: can I revise my answer? If it's shooting on that court, the corner "3" looks like it's about 16 feet. I'll go with that one lol
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If you were afforded multiple opportunities, then your approach would be best. As you will have only one shot, I imagine it would be a difficult decision to drop to 70% likelihood for double the payout.
 
Mr. Wonderful said:
but you never really lose the stroke, right?
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Season 4 Michael GIF by The Office


Straight off the couch after not playing seriously for a number of years I’m going layup for the guaranteed cash, but give me a couple of practice shots and I’d go corner three.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Let's consider this from an expected value point of view. I'm probably:

98% to make the layup --> 50K * 0.98 = 49K EV
70% to make the free throw --> 100K * 0.7 = 70K EV
30% to make the top of the key 3 --> 500K * 0.3 = 150K EV
20% to make the wing 3 --> 750K * 0.2 = 150K EV
10% to make the corner 3 --> 1000K *0.1 = 100K EV

So if the value of money is linear to me, I'm probably going with the top of the key 3.

However, the value of money isn't necessarily linear, might be closer to logarithmic. I'd consider the free throw. But probably the top of the key 3. It'd be hard to pass up a 5x increase in payoff for a shot from 7 feet farther away.

Edit: can I revise my answer? If it's shooting on that court, the corner "3" looks like it's about 16 feet. I'll go with that one lol
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It sounds like you play a decent amount of ball but I think most are overestimating the likelihood of even hitting a layup under that much pressure.
 
.-.
I'd go with the corner 3. I've always been able to shoot really well. 50k isn't going to transform my life. I know with the corner 3 there is no chance to get lucky and bank one in, but I can only recall once or twice doing that in my life. As far as a shooting in front of a crowd goes and their influence, it's once case where being on the autism spectrum would be a blessing. I just don't feel things like that. It's weird unless you know what it feels or doesn't feel like.
 
I'll tell you what. Anyone on this thread who says they'd take anything more than a layup or FT?

Let's pick a gym. You don't get to warm up. You can take any 3 you want as your first shot. You miss, you pay me 50.00, you make it and I'll pay you 100.00.

Bunch of fat old men living some serious glory days out here.
 
Deepster said:
I'll tell you what. Anyone on this thread who says they'd take anything more than a layup or FT?

Let's pick a gym. You don't get to warm up. You can take any 3 you want as your first shot. You miss, you pay me 50.00, you make it and I'll pay you 100.00.

Bunch of fat old men living some serious glory days out here.
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But isn't the point of this that if you take more risk then you get paid more for making it? So they wouldn't need to pay anything if they miss. So why not go for it and try to win more money? What's the issue with that? I don't understand your reaction since you're changing the rules of the original game in this thread.
 
HooperScooper said:
But isn't the point of this that if you take more risk then you get paid more for making it? So they wouldn't need to pay anything if they miss. So why not go for it and try to win more money? What's the issue with that? I don't understand your reaction since you're changing the rules of the original game in this thread.
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I think the key to your question is defining "more risk". I know what we look like here and I know most of the people who said they'd try to take a 3 probably haven't touched a ball on a court in a decade. At least. So it's not like "I easily make a layup, maybe I make a 3". They're not making a 3 unless they just super lucky and I'd be willing to bet I'm right there.

So the "risk" I feel you need to contemplate here is do I make a layup for 50k or likely miss? And I'd put the layup success rate, in front of a crowd, shooting cold? Probably around 75-80% for the folks here.
 
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