OT: You Only Get One Shot

[FfldCntyFan]

Let's consider this from an expected value point of view. I'm probably:

98% to make the layup --> 50K * 0.98 = 49K EV
70% to make the free throw --> 100K * 0.7 = 70K EV
30% to make the top of the key 3 --> 500K * 0.3 = 150K EV
20% to make the wing 3 --> 750K * 0.2 = 150K EV
10% to make the corner 3 --> 1000K *0.1 = 100K EV

So if the value of money is linear to me, I'm probably going with the top of the key 3.

However, the value of money isn't necessarily linear, might be closer to logarithmic. I'd consider the free throw. But probably the top of the key 3. It'd be hard to pass up a 5x increase in payoff for a shot from 7 feet farther away.

Edit: can I revise my answer? If it's shooting on that court, the corner "3" looks like it's about 16 feet. I'll go with that one lol

If you were afforded multiple opportunities, then your approach would be best. As you will have only one shot, I imagine it would be a difficult decision to drop to 70% likelihood for double the payout.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

but you never really lose the stroke, right?

Straight off the couch after not playing seriously for a number of years I’m going layup for the guaranteed cash, but give me a couple of practice shots and I’d go corner three.

 

[Mike Honcho]

Let's consider this from an expected value point of view. I'm probably:

98% to make the layup --> 50K * 0.98 = 49K EV
70% to make the free throw --> 100K * 0.7 = 70K EV
30% to make the top of the key 3 --> 500K * 0.3 = 150K EV
20% to make the wing 3 --> 750K * 0.2 = 150K EV
10% to make the corner 3 --> 1000K *0.1 = 100K EV

So if the value of money is linear to me, I'm probably going with the top of the key 3.

However, the value of money isn't necessarily linear, might be closer to logarithmic. I'd consider the free throw. But probably the top of the key 3. It'd be hard to pass up a 5x increase in payoff for a shot from 7 feet farther away.

Edit: can I revise my answer? If it's shooting on that court, the corner "3" looks like it's about 16 feet. I'll go with that one lol

It sounds like you play a decent amount of ball but I think most are overestimating the likelihood of even hitting a layup under that much pressure.

 

[Mike Honcho]

perhaps for depth perception, shouldnt be banking in a 3, but id take the closer shot

Bank shot or no bank shot, they count the same.

 

[Dove]

 

[Spaceman213J]

I'd go with the corner 3. I've always been able to shoot really well. 50k isn't going to transform my life. I know with the corner 3 there is no chance to get lucky and bank one in, but I can only recall once or twice doing that in my life. As far as a shooting in front of a crowd goes and their influence, it's once case where being on the autism spectrum would be a blessing. I just don't feel things like that. It's weird unless you know what it feels or doesn't feel like.

 

[Deepster]

I'll tell you what. Anyone on this thread who says they'd take anything more than a layup or FT?

Let's pick a gym. You don't get to warm up. You can take any 3 you want as your first shot. You miss, you pay me 50.00, you make it and I'll pay you 100.00.

Bunch of fat old men living some serious glory days out here.

 

[HooperScooper]

I'll tell you what. Anyone on this thread who says they'd take anything more than a layup or FT?

Let's pick a gym. You don't get to warm up. You can take any 3 you want as your first shot. You miss, you pay me 50.00, you make it and I'll pay you 100.00.

Bunch of fat old men living some serious glory days out here.

But isn't the point of this that if you take more risk then you get paid more for making it? So they wouldn't need to pay anything if they miss. So why not go for it and try to win more money? What's the issue with that? I don't understand your reaction since you're changing the rules of the original game in this thread.

 

[Deepster]

But isn't the point of this that if you take more risk then you get paid more for making it? So they wouldn't need to pay anything if they miss. So why not go for it and try to win more money? What's the issue with that? I don't understand your reaction since you're changing the rules of the original game in this thread.

I think the key to your question is defining "more risk". I know what we look like here and I know most of the people who said they'd try to take a 3 probably haven't touched a ball on a court in a decade. At least. So it's not like "I easily make a layup, maybe I make a 3". They're not making a 3 unless they just super lucky and I'd be willing to bet I'm right there.

So the "risk" I feel you need to contemplate here is do I make a layup for 50k or likely miss? And I'd put the layup success rate, in front of a crowd, shooting cold? Probably around 75-80% for the folks here.