OT: World Cup

[Gurleyman]

The thing is, Portugal had no one strong in the box who could go over the top. Ronaldo is a little weak when it comes to that. When you pack it in like say a Greece would do in that situation, the way to make a team pay for doing that is to keep going for a header. But who on Portugal can threaten like that?

The more balls get pinged into the box easily, the more chances something weird can happen. It's not always the first touch, but the second that causes problems. The US can win a header in a crowd, but the ball can deflect off another head or shoulder, or there can be a foul low (bump, jersey tug, etc.) that the referees miss that causes a US player to mistime his jump, so it skims off his head. Or a US defender can go for a header too aggressively and not see a Portuguese player slide in underneath him and get called for a foul in the box (that happened to Onyewu against Ghana the first time). Or we could shank a clearance.

I'm not saying come out of a shell or anything - just that the standard thing to do is to keep one guy up as a target to try to chase things down and not allow the other team to just gather clearances, dribble right up and serve the ball right back in with nobody in front of them. The advantage gained by having a tenth guy in or around the box instead of nine is minimal (diminishing returns) compared to the time that one guy can kill by running around up top (although everyone typically comes back on a free kick or corner). If that one guy can win a clearance and draw a foul or make a play (Wondo dribbling into the corner for example), it can kill a minute and relieve pressure for a while. You'll see that lone forward sub from the leading team in the final 10 minutes all the time in group stages or in Premier League (no overtime) - Italy pulled Balitelli with a one-goal lead on England, for example. The fresh legs are more valuable than a better finisher who is tired.

We were doing it right until the very, very end - which is a big caveat, I know. But we weren't hanging on for dear life. We got the ball 90 yards from our goal and milked the clock. We only had to deal with one dangerous situation (given that five guys were offsides on their other one) instead of a constant barrage. We just didn't deal with it.

 

[Mots010]

Where the hell did the 5 minutes of stoppage time come from, anyways? That seemed a bit excessive. We just need to go out and get a result against Germany. If Ghana can do it, so can we.

 

[intlzncster]

Best tweet I've seen about it yet:

Men in Blazers ✔ @MenInBlazers
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This may be as close as you will ever come to feeling English America

8:02 PM - 22 Jun 2014

 

[Gurleyman]

Where the hell did the 5 minutes of stoppage time come from, anyways? That seemed a bit excessive. We just need to go out and get a result against Germany. If Ghana can do it, so can we.

We had a couple guys down go down late - Besler and Beasley, who had to come off and go back on. Dempsey for a few moments too up near the corner flag. And you can typically figure a minute of stoppage per goal (and we had two). I figured it would be at least five - was fearing 6.

 

[housekeys]

This is the problem though. The US back line is not strong. Germany's attack is so deadly, far superior to Portugals (even with one of the top 2 players in the world); they run Mueller, Ozil, Khedira and crew at you and it's tough to stop. Khedira hasn't even played his best yet. Then if they want, they can bring Podalski, Schweinsteiger, and the great Miroslav Klose in to continue pummeling you. They are fit and athletic, just like the US.

I don't particularly fear their defense though. If we can get two goals, we should stand a good chance to tie.

I will be elated to be wrong. I'm going to go sulk now.

I agree with you here. The thing that is decisively different between the USA and Germany is that Germany has ample "finishers". I mean it is one thing to create scoring chances, which both teams do, but another to finish them by scoring the goals. Germany is superior in this most critical skill.

 

[UConnDan97]

Germany automatically wins the group with a draw. They will likely play conservatively.

Germany will likely NOT play conservatively. Let's put aside for a moment the fact that they are Germany and only think one way when playing soccer. Put yourself in their shoes: you have a large goal differential on both Ghana and Portugal, to the point that even if you were to be aggressive and let a goal through from the USA, you are still through to the next round. However, you would want to secure the knockout round date with Algeria and NOT Belgium.

My guess is that they are going to go for it, and we are going to play conservatively for at least the first 30 minutes to see if we can counter. The outcome of that first 30 minutes, along with whatever is happening in the Ghana-Portugal game at that point, will dictate the rest of the USA philosophy for the final 60 minutes...

 

[intlzncster]

Germany will likely NOT play conservatively. Let's put aside for a moment the fact that they are Germany and only think one way when playing soccer. Put yourself in their shoes: you have a large goal differential on both Ghana and Portugal, to the point that even if you were to be aggressive and let a goal through from the USA, you are still through to the next round. However, you would want to secure the knockout round date with Algeria and NOT Belgium.

My guess is that they are going to go for it, and we are going to play conservatively for at least the first 30 minutes to see if we can counter. The outcome of that first 30 minutes, along with whatever is happening in the Ghana-Portugal game at that point, will dictate the rest of the USA philosophy for the final 60 minutes...

Exactly. I can't understand people's mentality with this one. Germany will play to win. I'm not sure yet if the US plays conservatively. Does JK want them to get on their back foot and let Germany dictate pace? It's tough to stop die mannschaft when it gets rolling. Not just that, this is Jurgen against his former team. I think the US plays similar to the way they did against Portugal, making the appropriate adjustments for personnel and opposing tactics.

 

[intlzncster]

One final criticism of Bradley, that hardly anyone has mentioned, but how in the hell do you not slot that into a keeperless goal in the 55th minute or so? Should have been poked home.

Carlisle's grades match up well with my assessment:

D Geoff Cameron, 4 - Over the entire match, Cameron was solid for the most part, but the nightmarish first eight minutes and his failure to mark Varela on the goal can't be ignored. He simply had to do better in both situations.

M Michael Bradley, 5 - Looked back to his old self early, and just needed to find the range on his shots more. Should have done better on opportunity set up by Johnson, and seemed to fade a bit late. Made a poor pass that led to Ronaldo gaining possession and setting up the equalizer.​

Ok. Got that out of my system. No more ripping the USMNT for me. On to the next one.

 

[UConnDan97]

Exactly. I can't understand people's mentality with this one. Germany will play to win. I'm not sure yet if the US plays conservatively. Does JK want them to get on their back foot and let Germany dictate pace? It's tough to stop die mannschaft when it gets rolling. Not just that, this is Jurgen against his former team. I think the US plays similar to the way they did against Portugal, making the appropriate adjustments for personnel and opposing tactics.

Get used to Dempsey having to do a lot of stuff up top on his own. That's really the only way that we can play from here on out. Although I have to say, the amount of time we had on the ball during this game against Portugal shocked me. Still...Germany is not Portugal...

 

[intlzncster]

Get used to Dempsey having to do a lot of stuff up top on his own. That's really the only way that we can play from here on out.

At this stage, I'm riding the Jermaine Jones bandwagon until the end!

Although I have to say, the amount of time we had on the ball during this game against Portugal shocked me. Still...Germany is not Portugal...

Ya, Germany's counter kicks you in the teeth with consistency. Portugal didn't really generate many great chances. Germany does, and when they do, they finish (as housekeys pointed out). For example, I fear Mueller to a far, far greater extent than I do Ronaldo, player 'rankings' aside.

 

[Gurleyman]

One final criticism of Bradley, that hardly anyone has mentioned, but how in the hell do you not slot that into a keeperless goal in the 55th minute or so? Should have been poked home. Ok. Got that out of my system. No more ripping the USMNT for me. On to the next one.

Yeah - that was bad. He actually sort of did it right in a technical sense - when you get that bouncing ball, make sure you get your knee over the top of it and smack it hard and low so you don't pop it over the bar (the most common way to blow a chance like that is when you get too excited and get under it). He just didn't avoid the one guy on the line. I don't think he surveyed the landscape before the shot, just smacked it on frame figuring that was good enough with the keeper out.

 

[Gurleyman]

At this stage, I'm riding the Jermaine Jones bandwagon until the end! Ya, Germany's counter kicks you in the teeth with consistency. Portugal didn't really generate many great chances. Germany does, and when they do, they finish (as housekeys pointed out). For example, I fear Mueller to a far, far greater extent than I do Ronaldo, player 'rankings' aside.

Chance we may not see Mueller. He suffered a pretty nasty head wound at the end of the Ghana match, and they probably can afford to sit him out unless they feel they need him in the second half (which would be good news for us).

Germany can play relatively conservatively against us and still score. Every set piece or corner is always dangerous with them. Plus, they could smack one from distance like Jones did today for us. I'll be pulling for Portugal against Ghana just for goal differential help in case we trip up (otherwise I'd pull for Ghana). If we're down 1-0 and Portugal is winning by one or two, we don't have to throw everyone forward.

 

[bobbygt]

I'm seeing shades of 2002 all over again- that the result of the Ghana/Portugal game will determine whether the US advances.

 

[intlzncster]

Chance we may not see Mueller. He suffered a pretty nasty head wound at the end of the Ghana match, and they probably can afford to sit him out unless they feel they need him in the second half (which would be good news for us).

I'll be surprised if we don't see Mueller start. He's got 4 days to rest up. That was quite a shot to the head though.

 

[intlzncster]

I'm seeing shades of 2002 all over again- that the result of the Ghana/Portugal game will determine whether the US advances.

I, for one, am not at all opposed to collusion.

 

[bobbygt]

I, for one, am not all opposed to collusion.

Based on how good the teams are playing, I'd bet on Ghana winning. But a lot of times it's all about matchups and when you have a player like Ronaldo, who is so dangerous, I give Portugal a decent chance of preventing Ghana from getting the 3 pts.

 

[stamfordhusky]

We had a couple guys down go down late - Besler and Beasley, who had to come off and go back on. Dempsey for a few moments too up near the corner flag. And you can typically figure a minute of stoppage per goal (and we had two). I figured it would be at least five - was fearing 6.

Yes, with the injuries plus two goal celebrations plus delays for a bunch of subs, it could easily have been six or more. Five was about the minimum it could have been.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Germany will likely NOT play conservatively. Let's put aside for a moment the fact that they are Germany and only think one way when playing soccer. Put yourself in their shoes: you have a large goal differential on both Ghana and Portugal, to the point that even if you were to be aggressive and let a goal through from the USA, you are still through to the next round. However, you would want to secure the knockout round date with Algeria and NOT Belgium.

I don't understand. Germany only needs a tie to secure the knockout round date with Algeria. The only way they get Belgium is if they lose. So there is at least a reasonable case for not being aggressive - especially since the U.S. would also be content with a draw.

 

[stamfordhusky]

Then they are playing to lose. Good for the US.

There is a HUGE difference between playing conservatively and playing to lose. Playing conservatively simply means making sure your defenders don't get caught upfield and that your mids don't push too far up. That doesn't mean they won't still have a good chance to win. It just means they want to ensure they either win or draw. Either result is the same.

 

[intlzncster]

I don't understand. Germany only needs a tie to secure the knockout round date with Algeria. The only way they get Belgium is if they lose. So there is at least a reasonable case for not being aggressive - especially since the U.S. would also be content with a draw.

Yeah, but that's assuming you could program it. Say Germany plays conservative, and the US manages to stay with them until late.....and then all of a sudden scores. For Germany, that defeat would be a catastrophe. The difference between Belgium and some of the other sides is too great for Germany not to try and win this game.

A tie gives them the group, yes, but they can't count on a tie holding up for 90 minutes. All it could take is one late US goal to ruin their World Cup. Do they really want to leave that opportunity to chance? That's why I think they'll play to win. From the perspective a team with a shot to win the WC, finishing first in this group is critical.

And on the face of it, the Germans stylistically don't generally throw caution to the wind anyway. They play a fairly disciplined style.

 

[intlzncster]

For those who read barstool, this is kind of funny.

Landon Donovan Reacts To Portugal’s Last Second Goal

 

[HuskyHawk]

What? Seriously? That was one of the single worst plays I've seen from a defender this world cup. That 'clear' was amateur hour. Just as bad as Stevie Gerrard's 'clear'. That was an assist. Not a clear. There were two defenders in position on the cross. Either could have made the play. Lack of concentration. Two awful breakdowns by US defense costs them a chance to go through.

Yes it sucked. Tim Howard falling down didn't help either. That was very poor goalie play as well.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Germany automatically wins the group with a draw. They will likely play conservatively.

Germany never plays conservatively. It isn't in their nature. The USA needs to score and attack as they did against Portugal. Score two goals, even in defeat, and it is all but impossible not to advance.

 

[HuskyHawk]

We had a couple guys down go down late - Besler and Beasley, who had to come off and go back on. Dempsey for a few moments too up near the corner flag. And you can typically figure a minute of stoppage per goal (and we had two). I figured it would be at least five - was fearing 6.

And Beasley was faking.

 

[djct1999]

Germany will likely NOT play conservatively. Let's put aside for a moment the fact that they are Germany and only think one way when playing soccer. Put yourself in their shoes: you have a large goal differential on both Ghana and Portugal, to the point that even if you were to be aggressive and let a goal through from the USA, you are still through to the next round. However, you would want to secure the knockout round date with Algeria and NOT Belgium.

My guess is that they are going to go for it, and we are going to play conservatively for at least the first 30 minutes to see if we can counter. The outcome of that first 30 minutes, along with whatever is happening in the Ghana-Portugal game at that point, will dictate the rest of the USA philosophy for the final 60 minutes...

Couldn't disagree more. If Germany and the US tie, Germany wins the group. The question to me is how aggressive does the US come out and play. Usually in a decisive game 3 where a tie advances both teams, you will net a nil-nil result. Germany will almost certainly sit back, play conservatively, and by the 70th minute, have its 3 key players on the bench resting. The wild card for once is us.

 

[djct1999]

Germany never plays conservatively. It isn't in their nature. The USA needs to score and attack as they did against Portugal. Score two goals, even in defeat, and it is all but impossible not to advance.

fifa changed all game 3s to play simultaneously because of what germany did in the past, playing conservatively to net a tie. by playing at the same time, the theory is that no team can mail it in. unless, of course, the two teams that are playing both advance with a tie.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

fifa changed all game 3s to play simultaneously because of what germany did in the past, playing conservatively to net a tie. by playing at the same time, the theory is that no team can mail it in.

Yes, it was a past Germany vs Austria World Cup match up in which both advanced with a tie. Now, everybody and their grandmother has a mobile phone and Klose also wants that additional World Cup goal. Miroslav won't be playing for a tie.

 

[StevieDude]

Yes, it was a past Germany vs Austria World Cup match up in which both advanced with a tie. Now, everybody and their grandmother has a mobile phone and Klose also wants that additional World Cup goal. Miroslav won't be playing for a tie.

Small nitpick but actually they both advanced with a 1-0 West Germany win. Once they got the goal they just kicked it around

 

[djct1999]

Yes, it was a past Germany vs Austria World Cup match up in which both advanced with a tie. Now, everybody and their grandmother has a mobile phone and Klose also wants that additional World Cup goal. Miroslav won't be playing for a tie.

So play hard now while running the risk of being eliminated or play conservative now with the chance of playing four more games and winning it all? Klose will have plenty of time to net that goal. Think about it.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Talking to a German colleague right now...he skipped the work topic and went straight to the World Cup. He says they are worried, but that the Ghana game was a wake up call for the German team. So they won't be complacent or take us lightly.

I told him Klose worries me, as he is so good at converting crosses, and we have been so terrible defending them.