OT: World Cup

[UConnDan97]

and if his model hadn't been on the right track about Spain and England I'd question it more. He had URU and ENG at about the same chance to win today so he made me a lot
of money on Uruguay so I'm on his side right now.

To be fair, I think that most people, prior to the start of the tourney, had Uruguay beating England. Especially in South America. It was only the Costa Rica game that shook that confidence...until today, of course...

 

[UConnDan97]

Costa Rica had a damn good qualifying to get to Brazil. They are not bad. The odds of them getting a win or a tie against Italy could easily be 50%, and then England is done.

I hope you're not serious. Costa Rica may indeed win or tie tomorrow, but the idea that the difference between them winning (30%) and Italy winning (40%) being a virtual coin-toss is pretty much laughable. Nobody in the world believes that, except for Nate Silver and perhaps yourself...

 

[whaler11]

To be fair, I think that most people, prior to the start of the tourney, had Uruguay beating England. Especially in South America. It was only the Costa Rica game that shook that confidence...until today, of course...

Well most of the people that wager had England in a big way today. They were a huge favorite.

 

[UConnDan97]

Well most of the people that wager had England in a big way today. They were a huge favorite.

What I'm saying is that the line was heavily influenced by the Costa Rica 3-1 victory. Which should tell you what most people think about Costa Rica on the world stage. Costa Rica is not as bad as the world thinks, and not 2 goals better than Uruguay on most days...

 

[whaler11]

What I'm saying is that the line was heavily influenced by the Costa Rica 3-1 victory. Which should tell you what most people think about Costa Rica on the world stage. Costa Rica is not as bad as the world thinks, and not 2 goals better than Uruguay on most days...

Markets like the World Cup don't move on one result. Especially when it's a European team playing in SA.

 

[intlzncster]

As far as teams starting 0-2 go... that seems to be the best place you could be.

And yet, no team has ever made it through with 2 losses in the group stage. But there can always be a first...

 

[whaler11]

And yet, no team has ever made it through with 2 losses in the group stage. But there can always be a first...

There will probably never be an 0-2 team with a better chance.

 

[UConnDan97]

Markets like the World Cup don't move on one result. Especially when it's a European team playing in SA.

Markets move when a team does the unthinkable and loses to a CONCACAF nobody by multiple goals...

 

[whaler11]

Markets move when a team does the unthinkable and loses to a CONCACAF nobody by multiple goals...

Which might be plausible if they weren't huge favorites. There is so much money driven by models - they don't change that fast.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Two big games today. Italy vs Costa Rica and France vs the Swiss.

 

[intlzncster]

Two big games today. Italy vs Costa Rica and France vs the Swiss.

Really pissed at the schedule. Going to miss my first match (not inlcuding Greece, Iran and similar debacles). Italy/Costa is so important, but I got a Drs appt.

Don't care about Hondo/Ecua in prime time, but I get why it has that slot.

 

[bobbygt]

These start times in California are just killing me. I thought it would be fine, but I've missed most of the good matches this week.

I'm pulling for Costa Rica, but I think Italy will be too much for them.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Really pissed at the schedule. Going to miss my first match (not inlcuding Greece, Iran and similar debacles). Italy/Costa is so important, but I got a Drs appt.

Don't care about Hondo/Ecua in prime time, but I get why it has that slot.

I realized yesterday that I scheduled a training with some new employees during the US/Germany match. I hate everything about myself.

 

[upstater]

Really pissed at the schedule. Going to miss my first match (not inlcuding Greece, Iran and similar debacles). Italy/Costa is so important, but I got a Drs appt.

Don't care about Hondo/Ecua in prime time, but I get why it has that slot.

Eh, wasn't Greece's fault with the zero goals. Blame Japan. Greece played with 10 men for much of the game.

 

[auror]

Eh, wasn't Greece's fault with the zero goals. Blame Japan. Greece played with 10 men for much of the game.

Greece is a notoriously low-scoring team historically, though.

 

[auror]

I hope you're not serious. Costa Rica may indeed win or tie tomorrow, but the idea that the difference between them winning (30%) and Italy winning (40%) being a virtual coin-toss is pretty much laughable. Nobody in the world believes that, except for Nate Silver and perhaps yourself...

BOW BEFORE NATE SILVER'S COMPUTER!

 

[intlzncster]

They might not win this game, but I keep telling people that CR is quite a bit better than they are given credit for. And you can see it in this match.

They have a few guys with great individual skill, but it is their coach, who has them playing phenomenally well together (as a team), that has been key. And yes, they have the comfort of playing in South America. But that's just part of the deal.

 

[intlzncster]

I realized yesterday that I scheduled a training with some new employees during the US/Germany match. I hate everything about myself.

That has to be rescheduled. There is plenty of time to do that as well.

 

[upstater]

Greece is a notoriously low-scoring team historically, though.

Yep, truew, but they should've handled Japan. Against Colomobia they actually had most of the possession, but broke down on counterattack. Greece's only two star players are both defenders, and both are in the Bundesliga. Which tells you a lot about the emphasis. One of the defenders is injured and is not in Brazil.

 

[bobbygt]

They might not win this game, but I keep telling people that CR is quite a bit better than they are given credit for. And you can see it in this match.

They have a few guys with great individual skill, but it is their coach, who has them playing phenomenally well together (as a team), that has been key. And yes, they have the comfort of playing in South America. But that's just part of the deal.

Definitely a good call on that one- I do remember them being better in the qualifying than past CR teams.

Just got in to catch the last 20 min.-is it me, or is this game being played at a snail's pace?

 

[CallMeBruce]

I can't believe how good the Ticos look. They just look so much better prepared than Italy do.

 

[intlzncster]

Definitely a good call on that one- I do remember them being better in the qualifying than past CR teams.
Just got in to catch the last 20 min.-is it me, or is this game being played at a snail's pace?

I can't believe how good the Ticos look. They just look so much better prepared than Italy do.

I'm struck by how much the Costa Rican side is playing like some of the older Italian squads. Suffocating defense and morale sapping ball control.

So disciplined.

 

[whaler11]

BOW BEFORE NATE SILVER'S COMPUTER!

LOL. Nate Silver's computer to Dan - how does my a** taste.

 

[intlzncster]

Huge corner here. Aaand.....away.

 

[bobbygt]

Dangerous holding there by the CR defender. I've seen that called before . . . .