OT: Welcome to the bubble, Duke

[UConNation]

We all know it's garbage that Duke is ranked. It's absurd that Joe Lunardi has them in as a 7 seed. I'm not saying the Duke/K bias isn't real, but remember that even when we were in the Big East, our seeds were never lower than 9. For whatever reason, most (not all) teams from power conferences are either playing for a 1-9 seed or they're missing the tourney. Obviously there are exceptions like the year the Big East sent 11 teams to the tourney, but that's why they've got Duke as a 7 seed right now. They're either going to be a 7-9 seed or they're going to miss. You will not see Duke make the tourney as a 12 seed.

 

[Stinger92860]

They won't be on the bubble unless they have 12 losses. Even then, they're probably in.

Agreed, no way they are left out. They need to under 500 overall to say with certainty they miss the dance.

 

[tzznandrew]

Agreed, no way they are left out. They need to under 500 overall to say with certainty they miss the dance.

That's crazy.

You realize that the reason they haven't missed the tournament since the mid-90s is because they've been pretty damn good every year, right, not because the committee has gifted them anything?

They don't need to be under .500 to miss the tournament. They have to beat no one good and lose to maybe one more mediocre team.

For instance: they lose road games @Pitt, @Louisville, @UNC. Those make sense.
They lose home games against Virginia, UNC, and Louisville. Those are reasonable.

They're a borderline team then that has beaten Indiana and that's it.

But, give them a loss @GT? Suddenly their RPI is 50 and they have one Top 50 win.

Is any of this likely? No.

But there isn't some conspiracy.

 

[willie99]

they're in today, but they're trending down

they too better start winning some games

 

[Stinger92860]

That's crazy.

You realize that the reason they haven't missed the tournament since the mid-90s is because they've been pretty damn good every year, right, not because the committee has gifted them anything?

They don't need to be under .500 to miss the tournament. They have to beat no one good and lose to maybe one more mediocre team.

For instance: they lose road games @Pitt, @Louisville, @UNC. Those make sense.
They lose home games against Virginia, UNC, and Louisville. Those are reasonable.

They're a borderline team then that has beaten Indiana and that's it.

But, give them a loss @GT? Suddenly their RPI is 50 and they have one Top 50 win.

Is any of this likely? No.

But there isn't some conspiracy.

Take a breath or try some decaf. I never said any of those things. Their strength of schedule and an above 500 record gets them a seed or a playin.

 

[pepband99]

And yet, hilariously...they appeared in ALL 58 of the brackets on BracketMatrix updated since last Monday.

Not since December, since last Monday. Their lowest seed?

Eight.

This isn't completely outrageous, though it is stretching the boundaries of "are they in now, and where," vs "where will they be"

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Duke.html

1) Their SOS is going to be very very good.
2) Per Sagarin, they're going to be favored in majority of games left

Don't misquote me - i think they're in serious trouble, but this is more prognosticating then it is "projecting the field as of today"

 

[dogfan96]

That's crazy.

You realize that the reason they haven't missed the tournament since the mid-90s is because they've been pretty damn good every year, right, not because the committee has gifted them anything?

They don't need to be under .500 to miss the tournament. They have to beat no one good and lose to maybe one more mediocre team.

For instance: they lose road games @Pitt, @Louisville, @UNC. Those make sense.
They lose home games against Virginia, UNC, and Louisville. Those are reasonable.

They're a borderline team then that has beaten Indiana and that's it.

But, give them a loss @GT? Suddenly their RPI is 50 and they have one Top 50 win.

Is any of this likely? No.

But there isn't some conspiracy.

They've been gifted plenty of higher seeds than they've deserved over the years. There's no denying that. Not to mention that they basically get to play home games in the early rounds every year.

 

[tzznandrew]

They've been gifted plenty of higher seeds than they've deserved over the years. There's no denying that. Not to mention that they basically get to play home games in the early rounds every year.

Sure, the NC thing is an actual complaint. But most years they're seeding is about where you would expect it, not higher.

The one year they got a 1 seed and I wasn't sure they deserved it (2010) was a year they won the whole thing.

I think you'd be hardpressed to find a year they were overseeded.

 

[tzznandrew]

Take a breath or try some decaf. I never said any of those things. Their strength of schedule and an above 500 record gets them a seed or a playin.

Agreed, no way they are left out. They need to under 500 overall to say with certainty they miss the dance.

So you genuinely think a 16-15 Duke team gets into the play-in?

 

[mauconnfan]

So you genuinely think a 16-15 Duke team gets into the play-in?

No way

 

[B1GEast]

With UNC, Louisville, FSU and Pitt on the schedule, dook will lose several more games, they are NIT material this year.

 

[UC990411]

They don't play again this week. Then a couple of easy games next week: @GT and home NCState.

Easier than ECU and Tulane? They're bad opponents would be good opponents for us. Their resume at the end of the year will be better than ours only because of conference opponents. That's how life is in the american

 

[tzznandrew]

Easier than ECU and Tulane? They're bad opponents would be good opponents for us. Their resume at the end of the year will be better than ours only because of conference opponents. That's how life is in the american

Only if they win games. If they end with one win vs. Indiana and a bunch of dreck...

 

[sledog]

Deep dive. Can the hull survive test depth? What is test depth? #26?