OT: Stock trading

[temery]

As of this morning I am $1886 from my retirement goal (I retired ten years ago).

Prediction: The market crashes today.

 

[HuskyHawk]

If it is an open source model that you can self host, then what risk does that pose to your companies data wrt China?

None if your people have checked the code and continue to check the code for vulnerabilities. It's a trust question. But no different than relying on any open source.

But, per the thread I posted, they mostly achieved efficiency by (a) not trying to ingest everything, instead focusing on specific areas and (b) using a speed reading approach that looks at phrases not words.

Some areas may not be comfortable with the 90% is good enough approach. In other areas it will have no impact.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They're all investing in nuclear power. The LLM,'s require constant power. Somehow Deepseek supposedly has found a way around this

 

[B1GEast]

View attachment 106655

With over a billion people and being a large producer of manufactured goods, their power consumption should be far greater than the US.

We still don't know if they were achieved results by using US technology.

Energy Efficiency: The Real Reason DeepSeek AI is Such a Big Deal | OilPrice.com

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, disrupts the tech industry with its energy-efficient and cost-effective AI model, sparking debate about the future of energy consumption and AI development.

oilprice.com

 

[HuskyHawk]

With over a billion people and being a large producer of manufactured goods, their power consumption should be far greater than the US.

We still don't know if they were achieved results by using US technology.

Energy Efficiency: The Real Reason DeepSeek AI is Such a Big Deal | OilPrice.com

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, disrupts the tech industry with its energy-efficient and cost-effective AI model, sparking debate about the future of energy consumption and AI development.

oilprice.com

They did. Definitely diverted Nvidia from Singapore.

 

[Palatine]

They're all investing in nuclear power. The LLM,'s require constant power. Somehow Deepseek supposedly has found a way around this

China built a coal fired power plant every week in 2024 (50 of em). That would be a way around the DeepSeek electricity problem

 

[B1GEast]

They did. Definitely diverted Nvidia from Singapore.

I would not be surprised. I've used the Deepseek app. It rivals chat GPT 4.

With the new RISC 4 open source architecture for chip making, NVIDIA will have competition.

So even if they cheated, they've arrived and will have options

 

[B1GEast]

China built a coal fired power plant every week in 2024 (50 of em). That would be a way around the DeepSeek electricity problem

Deepseek supposedly doesn't a problem with electricity. From what they reported, and it's speculative, Deepseek only requires a quarter of the power that US companies need to power their language model.

Some people have downloaded Deepseek and got it to run on a raspberry pi device coupled with a decent video card.

 

[NJHusky]

I saw somewhere that they asked an earlier version of Deep Seek ‘who am I’ and it said it was chatgpt….

 

[Excalibur]

They did. Definitely diverted Nvidia from Singapore.

They've basically admitted it at this point

 

[HuskyHawk]

Deepseek supposedly doesn't a problem with electricity. From what they reported, and it's speculative, Deepseek only requires a quarter of the power that US companies need to power their language model.

Some people have downloaded Deepseek and got it to run on a raspberry pi device coupled with a decent video card.

It isn't the power to run it, it's the power to train it and keep training it. AI apps can obviously run on an iPhone or PC. It's training the LLM, ingesting essentially much of the data the world creates every day. That is what drives the need for AI factories and lots of power. Once you start, you can't stop or the LLM isn't up to speed. If you asked it when was the last U.S. airline crash and what were the details it has to give you a different answer today than it gave you on Monday.

Deepseek is not ingesting nearly as much stuff (much more targeted) and the approach to training it is a "good enough" approach. It's basically speed reading the data, where you look at sentences not words. Could possibly lead to inaccuracies but not many, so the efficiency trade-off is huge.

It's all pretty disruptive and exciting, but understandably a bit scary at the same time. It does remind me of the early days of the WWW. The internet was there, like AI was there, but until Netscape and the browser from Cornell Law School you couldn't do much with it. Usenet was fun for me, but so limited. We're at the stage with AI were Netscape is out, people are starting to build websites with actual pictures but there's no real ecommerce yet. I built a tourists guide to the Bay Area website back then, it was probably the first one. But I couldn't conceive of TripAdvisor. There are people with vision out there who will surprise us with AI.

 

[B1GEast]

It isn't the power to run it, it's the power to train it and keep training it. AI apps can obviously run on an iPhone or PC. It's training the LLM, ingesting essentially much of the data the world creates every day. That is what drives the need for AI factories and lots of power. Once you start, you can't stop or the LLM isn't up to speed. If you asked it when was the last U.S. airline crash and what were the details it has to give you a different answer today than it gave you on Monday.

Deepseek is not ingesting nearly as much stuff (much more targeted) and the approach to training it is a "good enough" approach. It's basically speed reading the data, where you look at sentences not words. Could possibly lead to inaccuracies but not many, so the efficiency trade-off is huge.

It's all pretty disruptive and exciting, but understandably a bit scary at the same time. It does remind me of the early days of the WWW. The internet was there, like AI was there, but until Netscape and the browser from Cornell Law School you couldn't do much with it. Usenet was fun for me, but so limited. We're at the stage with AI were Netscape is out, people are starting to build websites with actual pictures but there's no real ecommerce yet. I built a tourists guide to the Bay Area website back then, it was probably the first one. But I couldn't conceive of TripAdvisor. There are people with vision out there who will surprise us with AI.

I understand that the LLM's require a constant stream of power, which is why I indicated that US companies are procuring nuclear power plants.

A "good enough" strategy may be appropriate in some cases.

I agree that it's a lot like the early days of the Internet. People always say they remember what life was like before the Internet and will say the same about AI

The AI timeline is accelerating and soon things are going to get weird. How we work, with a transformer chatbox, how we interact with it and so much more.

Unfortunately, within a few short years, there will be less and less people employed in the corporate world.

I'm a bit pessimistic about how AI will disrupt our lives. It really is Pandora's box and when it's paired with robotics especially in the battlefield, who really knows where we end up.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I understand that the LLM's require a constant stream of power, which is why I indicated that US companies are procuring nuclear power plants.

A "good enough" strategy may be appropriate in some cases.

I agree that it's a lot like the early days of the Internet. People always say they remember what life was like before the Internet and will say the same about AI

The AI timeline is accelerating and soon things are going to get weird. How we work, with a transformer chatbox, how we interact with it and so much more.

Unfortunately, within a few short years, there will be less and less people employed in the corporate world.

I'm a bit pessimistic about how AI will disrupt our lives. It really is Pandora's box and when it's paired with robotics especially in the battlefield, who really knows where we end up.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Don't

Muh BABA doing a face ripper since this post. Thanks for the inverse! Tim Apple seconds.

 

[JohnFSilver]

The older I get, the more I interact with them, CEOs and leadership people are just as dumb as the rest of us. CEOs and CFOs love AI, we can replace people.

Great, then when everyone has AI and there is no differentiator in marketing, comms, coding, decision making then how are you going to set yourself a part?

Already seeing it in marketing space. A year onto AI, people can tell what is AI and also can spot inauthenticity. AI is incredible, but it isn’t replacing humans in strategic roles. ‘

There is a jobs gonna be loss with AI, but there are also gonna be jobs created. As far as AI, humans created AI. by definition, AI can’t create things that never existed (it can only create things based off input from data that has existed before). That is the power of humans, ingenuity is going to be what we value.

Also, AI can’t create love, hate, comedy or sarcasm. I love AI, gonna spend rest of my career working with it. Any leader who thinks it is a people replacement should look in the mirror. AIs should be the CEO and make data based risk decisions at the prompting of a board of directors. No need for a CEO IMO.

 

[uconnfan68]

None if your people have checked the code and continue to check the code for vulnerabilities. It's a trust question. But no different than relying on any open source.

But, per the thread I posted, they mostly achieved efficiency by (a) not trying to ingest everything, instead focusing on specific areas and (b) using a speed reading approach that looks at phrases not words.

Some areas may not be comfortable with the 90% is good enough approach. In other areas it will have no impact.

We're still doing the space pen, and they're doing pencils.

 

[Edward Sargent]

At 73 I am a dividend wonk. I also don’t know enough so have someone managing my money. My advisor feels I am overweighted in healthcare. I’m a toxicologist with 40 years in pharma. You betcha I’m overweighted! As long as boomers are still alive we are the worlds medicine chest and many of us will go to our graves with more metal than bone (not really but you get my point). I will say I am very worried about the RFK Jr wildcard.

 

[Edward Sargent]

The older I get, the more I interact with them, CEOs and leadership people are just as dumb as the rest of us. CEOs and CFOs love AI, we can replace people.

Great, then when everyone has AI and there is no differentiator in marketing, comms, coding, decision making then how are you going to set yourself a part?

Already seeing it in marketing space. A year onto AI, people can tell what is AI and also can spot inauthenticity. AI is incredible, but it isn’t replacing humans in strategic roles. ‘

There is a jobs gonna be loss with AI, but there are also gonna be jobs created. As far as AI, humans created AI. by definition, AI can’t create things that never existed (it can only create things based off input from data that has existed before). That is the power of humans, ingenuity is going to be what we value.

Also, AI can’t create love, hate, comedy or sarcasm. I love AI, gonna spend rest of my career working with it. Any leader who thinks it is a people replacement should look in the mirror. AIs should be the CEO and make data based risk decisions at the prompting of a board of directors. No need for a CEO IMO.

Sometime over a beer John I would love to discuss the basis of decisions made by the Captain’s of Industry! I’ll do the research if you write the book!!

 

[Chin Diesel]

A buddy of mine told me over the summer to check out RGTI.

I got a small amount at around $0.85. Wish I had put in a large amount. Closed today at $11.81. Had actually spiked up to $21 before coming back to current levels.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Sometime over a beer John I would love to discuss the basis of decisions made by the Captain’s of Industry! I’ll do the research if you write the book!!

Deal my friend.

 

[Stinger92860]

In a meeting today, my industry expert said banks will make and have been making money on spreads. So thinking a 2x banking etf may be an option.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Don't

Muh BABA went from $80 to $144.

China looking to fill the gaping hole in global influence.

 

[uconnfan68]

I would not be surprised. I've used the Deepseek app. It rivals chat GPT 4.

With the new RISC 4 open source architecture for chip making, NVIDIA will have competition.

So even if they cheated, they've arrived and will have options

It goes without saying that they "cheated"... whatever that means. To me, it means we were arrogant, reckless, and too worried about short term to think ahead.

 

[superjohn]

Muh BABA went from $80 to $144.

China looking to fill the gaping hole in global influence.

Cool, I used to own it. I don't like Chinese companies. I made 15k on palantir to add to my dry powder and will be adding to my core US positions on dips.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

A buddy of mine told me over the summer to check out RGTI.

I got a small amount at around $0.85. Wish I had put in a large amount. Closed today at $11.81. Had actually spiked up to $21 before coming back to current levels.

They’ll get acquired by IBM or Google, the Quantum leaders, at some point.