OT: Stock trading | Page 171 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

UConnSwag11 said:
Sooo does anyone want to talk about Evergrande and the massive poopstorm that might make it here?
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Sure hope highly-margined yarders paid some of their loans, many built in some cash, and others bought some puts for US and mainland-focused funds.

IIRC, not much of Evergrande's equity is held by western institutions and retail. Debt, far more. How, or if the CCParty Boys bail out Evergrande with help from large mainland SOE banks and other SOEs, HK dingleberry HSBC, provincial and city governments, etc will be interesting. Quality tweets you shared from the Italian guy @UConnSwag11
 
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B1GEast said:
Lehman had almost 700 billion in assets wjen they went down
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Yes, and with significant off balance sheet leverage. Not to mention it was in dollars over 10 years ago in a systemic financial failure.

This is not that……at least I sure hope not…….
 
Small bounce back already underway if pre market stays the way it is
 
CONN78SEJ said:
You should have sold months ago or shorted. I had a great day bought the SPXU and the FAZ last summer and am well into profits already, holding for the slow slide or the crash. The SPXU shorts the S&P 500 and the FAZ shorts the Russell 2000. This market has basically gone straight up since 2009. It’s so overbought, you can’t find decent companies for less than $100 a share. If there is a bounce tomorrow it will be short covering. Lol
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Did you foresee Evergrande? Or Delta for that matter? Or just anticipating tapering way early?
 
the Q said:
Small bounce back already underway if pre market stays the way it is
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Dow futures are up almost a full percent. Investors will be buy, but I'm curious where the market will close.

I think any gains expeeienced early won't be sustsined by the closing bell
 
CONN78SEJ said:
You should have sold months ago or shorted. I had a great day bought the SPXU and the FAZ last summer and am well into profits already, holding for the slow slide or the crash. The SPXU shorts the S&P 500 and the FAZ shorts the Russell 2000. This market has basically gone straight up since 2009. It’s so overbought, you can’t find decent companies for less than $100 a share. If there is a bounce tomorrow it will be short covering. Lol
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I was up a lot over the last few months, so no. Up far more than I was down yesterday. Consumer debt in the U.S. is very low compared to where it has been. There is a lot of money out there. With interest rates low, inflation high, there are only a few places that money can go, the market and real estate.
 
Tonight (US time): Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges re-open after holiday. Meanwhile, HKEX closes 9/22 (tonight US time) for its' own separate holiday. HK, also closed 10/1 HKT (US 9/30 night time).

Oct 1-7: Mainland national holiday, markets closed. After mainlanders kibitz for a week over too much food, baijou, etc, re-opening Fri 10/8 (Thur night 10/7 US time) could be very, very, very interesting.
 
HuskyHawk said:
I was up a lot over the last few months, so no. Up far more than I was down yesterday. Consumer debt in the U.S. is very low compared to where it has been. There is a lot of money out there. With interest rates low, inflation high, there are only a few places that money can go, the market and real estate.
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You do realize that a bounce the day after a big down day is usually not real buying. It is short sellers buying back the shares they shorted the day before to close out their positions.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
You do realize that a bounce the day after a big down day is usually not real buying. It is short sellers buying back the shares they shorted the day before to close out their positions.
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I think you vastly overstate the impact of short sellers. I’m an investor not a trader. Over time shorts lose. Lots of people have free cash specifically to buy on major drops. Including lots of big institutional investors.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
You do realize that a bounce the day after a big down day is usually not real buying. It is short sellers buying back the shares they shorted the day before to close out their positions.
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These are typically intra day shorts, they are bought back by end of the trading day, not the next day. That's why things started popping off yesterday afternoon.
 
Jaker said:
These are typically intra day shorts, they are bought back by end of the trading day, not the next day. That's why things started popping off yesterday afternoon.
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You are so wrong. Anyone who goes long in the markets now is greedy and not thinking clearly. As I have already said the Stock market has basically gone straight up since 2009. A correction of at least 30% is coming because of many factors. Hedge funds know this, and they have been shorting the the stock market now for several weeks. These are not mom and pop intraday shorts. If you wish to go long on something buy gold, silver, palladium or platinum, 30 year bonds, the price of oil, etc, but don’t buy stocks. Also, I would not pay attention to stock market fundamentals, but would pay strong attention to stock market technicals.
 
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If I've learned anything over a 40 year career in business it's that markets are extraordinarily nuanced. Nothing is more dangerous than arrogance in addressing markets. The moment one believes they have a market such as equity markets figured out, is the moment they will begin to pay a huge price.

Fascinating stuff if you stop and think about it for a bit...........
 
CONN78SEJ said:
You are so wrong. Anyone who goes long in the markets now is greedy and not thinking clearly. As I have already said the Stock market has basically gone straight up since 2009. A correction of at least 30% is coming because of many factors. Hedge funds know this, and they have been shorting the the stock market now for several weeks. These are not mom and pop intraday shorts. If you wish to go long on something buy gold, silver, palladium or platinum, 30 year bonds, the price of oil, etc, but don’t buy stocks. Also, I would not pay attention to stock market fundamentals, but would pay strong attention to stock market technicals.
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Look at 1982 to 2000. S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends Saw a really fascinating presentation on trends and predictions by Bruce Mehlmen yesterday. Some of his predictions were things I would expect. Others were more interestingly novel. Others short term/political.

My fundamental view is that we in a series of cycles of human advancement that get shorter and shorter. The early industrial revolution lead to the gilded age. Then there was a pause and the depression. The modern industrial age came, then we had a pause to adapt (roughly the 70's) and then the PC and Internet age came. There was a pause to adjust from 2000 to about 2004, when the next period of mobility/EDGE based innovation slowly began. Our bad financial regulatory framework tanked the market from 2007-09, but actual innovation wasn't slowed so many of the companies that went down, shouldn't have. Covid-19 accelerated the path we were on, and we are about to experience fairly massive, rapid change and more importantly, disruption. There will be a down cycle at some point, but I think we are years away. I also think the down cycles will grow increasingly shorter.

We are just barely scratching the surface of the ways we are going to combine the digital with the real. Amazon Disrupts Retail (Again) With New Department Stores (forbes.com) What Uber did to the taxi industry, and Air BnB to the short term rental industry is going to be repeated, over and over. For those here buying LINK, yes they are coming for the banks and payment processing businesses. They are coming for healthcare. They are coming for things we don't anticipate or expect.

So yes, I'm long. But I'm not long everything.
 
I think OHI could be a really good buy right now.

It’s back down to almost early Covid prices and is going to be a major player as more and more of our population ages and lives longer than ever.

Plus you get paid to wait with a juicy 8% yield
 
HuskyHawk said:
Look at 1982 to 2000. S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends Saw a really fascinating presentation on trends and predictions by Bruce Mehlmen yesterday. Some of his predictions were things I would expect. Others were more interestingly novel. Others short term/political.

My fundamental view is that we in a series of cycles of human advancement that get shorter and shorter. The early industrial revolution lead to the gilded age. Then there was a pause and the depression. The modern industrial age came, then we had a pause to adapt (roughly the 70's) and then the PC and Internet age came. There was a pause to adjust from 2000 to about 2004, when the next period of mobility/EDGE based innovation slowly began. Our bad financial regulatory framework tanked the market from 2007-09, but actual innovation wasn't slowed so many of the companies that went down, shouldn't have. Covid-19 accelerated the path we were on, and we are about to experience fairly massive, rapid change and more importantly, disruption. There will be a down cycle at some point, but I think we are years away. I also think the down cycles will grow increasingly shorter.

We are just barely scratching the surface of the ways we are going to combine the digital with the real. Amazon Disrupts Retail (Again) With New Department Stores (forbes.com) What Uber did to the taxi industry, and Air BnB to the short term rental industry is going to be repeated, over and over. For those here buying LINK, yes they are coming for the banks and payment processing businesses. They are coming for healthcare. They are coming for things we don't anticipate or expect.

So yes, I'm long. But I'm not long everything.
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Again, watch the market technicals, don’t bother with market fundamentals.
 
CONN78SEJ said:
Again, watch the market technicals, don’t bother with market fundamentals.
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Technicals are garbage. People mapping trends as those same trends change more rapidly than they can predict. It’s a fool’s errand. Fundamentals don’t mean what they did when I was a finance major at UConn. Now you need to understand change and disruption and attempt to predict it. Most are betting all over hoping to hit a winner.

Tesla has crap fundamentals. It exploded while it had crap fundamentals (and has huge short positions as a result). The technical market is irrelevant to it as well. It’s simply a bet on a change agent that they will pull something off.
 
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