OT: Stock trading | Page 202 | The Boneyard
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OT: Stock trading

CONN78SEJ said:
Unless you have inside info, start up biotechs are a crap shoot, do your homework and take profits whenever they are there. Buying biotechs on a promise is almost as risky as trading options.
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If you buy the one they named the technology after, maybe you’ll have better luck.
 
HuskyHawk said:
I have one down like 88% since I bought it. Worthless but why even sell? Maybe they have something that hits.
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It’s definitely possible, 24 years ago during the biotech boom I bought 1000 shares of a promising biotech stock at $14 and 3 days later sold it at $133. Back in those days the volatility was crazy, stocks going up or down $100/sh in one day.
 
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This thread has been dormant, but DeepSeek just wrecked Nasdaq. It's a bad day out there.

Here's a pretty good thread on what happened.
 
Well, I'm sure Mr. Brown is an authority on all things AI....

More seriously, the Chinese may be farther along than initially believed with AI. I doubt that implodes US leaders and if it cools this market a bit it may be a good thing.
 
uconndogs said:
Well, I'm sure Mr. Brown is an authority on all things AI....

More seriously, the Chinese may be farther along than initially believed with AI. I doubt that implodes US leaders and if it cools this market a bit it may be a good thing.
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Some other info trickling out that the supposed reports of this being built for $6M are hogwash.

The $6m does not include “costs associated with prior research and ablation experiments on architectures, algorithms and data” per the technical paper. “Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” This means that it is possible to train an r1 quality model with a $6m run if a lab has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on prior research and has access to much larger clusters.
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So while they did have some huge algorithmic breakthroughs that reduce the training time and cost, it appears that they likely used a whole lot of Nvidia chips diverted through Singapore to do it. So not as bad for U.S. tech as first thought, perhaps even good if it means more rapid adoption. Looks bad for U.S. trade compliance, however.

Apologies if this is boring to some, it does have a huge stock market impact given that AI is what has propped up the market. It's also heavily impactful to my job so I'm trying to follow it as closely as I can.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Some other info trickling out that the supposed reports of this being built for $6M are hogwash.



So while they did have some huge algorithmic breakthroughs that reduce the training time and cost, it appears that they likely used a whole lot of Nvidia chips diverted through Singapore to do it. So not as bad for U.S. tech as first thought, perhaps even good if it means more rapid adoption. Looks bad for U.S. trade compliance, however.

Apologies if this is boring to some, it does have a huge stock market impact given that AI is what has propped up the market. It's also heavily impactful to my job so I'm trying to follow it as closely as I can.
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So, you really are a bot?
 
uconnfan68 said:
So, you really are a bot?
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I probably wouldn't have this annoying cough if I was. Or be active in the beer thread.

The stock of my employer is down a lot today. It's not NVDIA.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
I probably wouldn't have this annoying cough if I was. Or be active in the beer thread.

The stock of my employer is down a lot today. It's not NVDIA.
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Broadcom?
 
HuskyHawk said:
The stock of my employer is down a lot today. It's not NVDIA.
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10-20+% drops: added bit of yours, NVDA & VRT to LT holds.

Possibilities (separate or combined): Deepseek overreaction? Pre-Lunar new year week markets close, CCP shorting US equities markets combined with CCP direction for mainland banks, pensions, etc to buy mainland stocks? Over leveraged retail trader margin calls? Potentially, bit of hedgy ¥ unwind cover to boot?
 
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Da_Aisijimo_Gou said:
10-20+% drops: added bit of yours, NVDA & VRT to LT holds.

Possibilities (separate or combined): Deepseek overreaction? Pre-Lunar new year week markets close, CCP shorting US equities markets combined with CCP direction for mainland banks, pensions, etc to buy mainland stocks? Over leveraged retail trader margin calls? Potentially, bit of hedgy ¥ unwind cover to boot?
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I have enough of mine and it's too close to end of Q to trade it now anyway. I bought NVDA several years ago (there was a post here somewhere) because I was testing the Nancy Pelosi portfolio. Sold it for a nice gain, but way too soon in hindsight.

I'm always overweight tech, but today's another good diversification lesson. Coke was up 3.14%. So was Apple (3.17). I many need to figure out why VSQTF was up 14.59% for me today. There's no news I can see. It's been a disaster until today.
 
Excalibur said:
This was a massive overreaction based on a claim that was clearly full of excrement.
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Even if the claim is true it doesn't matter. All it means is that with even more powerful chips you can be that much more efficient with your horsepower. This seems so dumb

If you have 500 horsepower in a 5,000lb car and can be just as fast as 300 horsepower in a 3000lb car, why wouldn't you take the 500hp engine and put it in the 3000 lb car so long as you have the means to do it.
 
What Deepseek was able to accomplish at a fraction of the cost is incredible.

The market should be worried because they can continue to scale at a much cheaper cost.

NVIDIA still has an impressive product mix, but to achieve those metrics at that cost from a long term perspective is worrisome for US companies.

AI is still very new and there are many different types of LLM's that are being developed so the race is not won by any means, but the distance between the US and China just got incredibly tighter.

Let's see what OpenAI, Anthropic , Google and the others respond with. Chat GPT 5 should be rolling out this year
 
B1GEast said:
What Deepseek was able to accomplish at a fraction of the cost is incredible.

The market should be worried because they can continue to scale at a much cheaper cost.

NVIDIA still has an impressive product mix, but to achieve those metrics at that cost from a long term perspective is worrisome for US companies.

AI is still very new and there are many different types of LLM's that are being developed so the race is not won by any means, but the distance between the US and China just got incredibly tighter.

Let's see what OpenAI, Anthropic , Google and the others respond with. Chat GPT 5 should be rolling out this year
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LOL at "fraction of the cost." They're lying.
 
Excalibur said:
LOL at "fraction of the cost." They're lying.
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If they used NVIDIA chips to achieve results, I would agree. We don't really know.

The reality is that they are here and although I haven't used the app, I've read only good things about Deepseek.

They are a threat to US companies.
 
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