OT: Stock trading

[TheHorde]

Give us a homeopathic medicine stock success story or quit your yapping

I don’t have a stock story for that industry. Sorry. But at least I haven’t owned Moderna or Pfizer the past year. Unfortunately I own CVS.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I have honestly liquidated almost everything but MSFT, AMZN, APPL and index funds. Stuff is just a bit too crazy right now.

Almost key word, what are you holding onto?
For me definitely in non-retirement I'm out of most speculative stocks yet still have 2 <1K positions that haven't given up on - likely 2023 losses and I've got holdings in some stupid ARK funds possibly b/c Cathy whatshername still gives a convincing interview

 

[Jay-Bone]

I have honestly liquidated almost everything but MSFT, AMZN, APPL and index funds. Stuff is just a bit too crazy right now.

You sold the dip?

You may think the economy is in trouble, but Barbie, TayTay and Messi say differently.

We won’t have a read on third-quarter economic growth until late October, but already, forecasts for GDP “are running wild on the upside,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds. “It is looking like a blowout quarter for economic growth.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/23/business/nightcap-consumer-spending-us-econ/index.html

 

[HuskyHawk]

You sold the dip?

You may think the economy is in trouble, but Barbie, TayTay and Messi say differently.

We won’t have a read on third-quarter economic growth until late October, but already, forecasts for GDP “are running wild on the upside,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds. “It is looking like a blowout quarter for economic growth.”

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/23/business/nightcap-consumer-spending-us-econ/index.html

No, sold mostly at highs. There is a reckoning coming. Consumer debt is way beyond what is sustainable, mortgage rates are about to crush the housing market. It’s a house of cards right now. Fed shows no signs of rational behavior and we continue to ignore supply side energy initiatives that would help. Meanwhile, my money market is yielding over 5%.

 

[Excalibur]

Going back and reading the takes In this thread is amusing.

 

[wingsfan055]

Learn how to sell options, both Calls and Puts. Take advantage of the volatility and premiums in contract prices. That was the most important lesson I learned in investing and have done very well for myself.

 

[Jay-Bone]

No, sold mostly at highs. There is a reckoning coming. Consumer debt is way beyond what is sustainable, mortgage rates are about to crush the housing market. It’s a house of cards right now. Fed shows no signs of rational behavior and we continue to ignore supply side energy initiatives that would help. Meanwhile, my money market is yielding over 5%.

Stonks only go up. Except when they dip. Thats when you buy.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Learn how to sell options, both Calls and Puts. Take advantage of the volatility and premiums in contract prices. That was the most important lesson I learned in investing and have done very well for myself.

Finally some rational advice. The rest is posters puffing out their chests thinking they actually know something. If you're not playing the volatility, you're not really playing, you're just gambling. This isn't your grandmother's market.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Finally some rational advice. The rest is posters puffing out their chests thinking they actually know something. If you're not playing the volatility, you're not really playing, you're just gambling. This isn't your grandmother's market.

If stocks are your thing then short them all.

 

[Excalibur]

LOL at the idea that options trading isn't gambling.

 

[Palatine]

LOL at the idea that options trading isn't gambling.

In gambling you know the odds.

 

[HuskyHawk]

LOL at the idea that options trading isn't gambling.

I had a grad level class at UConn on valuing Options and Futures. Lots of calculus. Back then you could predict the prices accurately and it was mostly about arbitrage opportunities to keep the market honest. All the math is gone. Rational behavior is gone. Just rampant speculation. You try relying on those valuations now and you'll get killed.

 

[temery]

Anyone here use Vanguard Digital Advisor or Personal Advisor? The fees are low (.15% and .30%, respectively).

 

[husky429]

Anyone here use Vanguard Digital Advisor or Personal Advisor? The fees are low (.15% and .30%, respectively).

I feel like considering those fees and what the robo-advisors do, you might as well just index into VTI. Even make it extra easy and use a target date fund.

Has a robo-advisor ever consistently beat the total market? Not that I've heard of.

 

[temery]

Even make it extra easy and use a target date fund.

Unless I'm looking at the wrong info, the target date funds underperform an S&P Index fund, VTI, etc.

 

[husky429]

Unless I'm looking at the wrong info, the target date funds underperform an S&P Index fund, VTI, etc.

Not surprising. Even the TDFs for 30+ years out keep a bit in bonds or cash. It's the big reason why I don't use TDFs for my retirement. I'm 30 years out--no reason for me to have anything but equities.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

In gambling you know the odds.

Anyone who is actively buying and holding stocks now is taking a huge risk. Talk about gambling.

 

[casual-yardin]

Anyone who is actively buying and holding stocks now is taking a huge risk. Talk about gambling.

Why?

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Why?

Because the market has basically gone straight up since 2009, even the Covid years were very mild in terms of selling. The VIX is at an all time low. When the balloon pops I don’t want to be anywhere near Wall Street, or at least balance your long holdings with some shorts or buy shares in a bear market fund, or buy gold, silver, palladium etc.

 

[uconndogs]

Because the market has basically gone straight up since 2009, even the Covid years were very mild in terms of selling. The VIX is at an all time low. When the balloon pops I don’t want to be anywhere near Wall Street, or at least balance your long holdings with some shorts or buy shares in a bear market fund, or buy gold, silver, palladium etc.

You may be right......or you may be dead wrong.

Color me a Bogle fan of a long-term investment perspective and avoiding the fools gold that is market timing.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Because the market has basically gone straight up since 2009, even the Covid years were very mild in terms of selling. The VIX is at an all time low. When the balloon pops I don’t want to be anywhere near Wall Street, or at least balance your long holdings with some shorts or buy shares in a bear market fund, or buy gold, silver, palladium etc.

Good grief man. Metals suck, although Palladium is at least useful. There are commodities that may be smart, but precious metals haven't been a good hedge in decades. Equities have held up in part because everything else is even worse.

I'm more worried about a huge credit event looming. Credit card debt is massive right now and with interest rates, it's just not sustainable. People are borrowing at credit card rates to buy food and pay utilities. Home market is screwed, people buying at high prices, with 7% mortgages and almost nothing down. They are going to default in a massive wave. My neighbor's house went "under agreement" on the first open house day. That was a month and 3 more "under agreements" ago. Meanwhile, anybody with a cheap mortgage can't afford to move, so supply drops dramatically.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Because the market has basically gone straight up since 2009, even the Covid years were very mild in terms of selling. The VIX is at an all time low. When the balloon pops I don’t want to be anywhere near Wall Street, or at least balance your long holdings with some shorts or buy shares in a bear market fund, or buy gold, silver, palladium etc.

Lol, the stock market has basically gone straight and to the right since 1940. Look at the numbers. Yes there are short downturns, but you can draw a line straight up and to the right. Plot that against the inflation adjusted value of the dollar and tell me how you plan to keep up with rising costs if you don’t invest in stocks.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Lol, the stock market has basically gone straight and to the right since 1940. Look at the numbers. Yes there are short downturns, but you can draw a line straight up and to the right. Plot that against the inflation adjusted value of the dollar and tell me how you plan to keep up with rising costs if you don’t invest in stocks.

Of course it’s gone straight to the right unless you’re living in a time machine. Lol. Time does move forward last I checked.

Seriously, you don’t have to invest in stocks, with interest rates rising now would be a good time to invest in bonds or treasuries, also precious metals. I’ve been buying gold and palladium for a couple years now, have recently started buying silver. Or just find some bloated over bought stocks and sell them short.

The stock market has basically gone straight up since 2009, something got to give sooner or later. A correction or bear market is coming.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Good grief man. Metals suck, although Palladium is at least useful. There are commodities that may be smart, but precious metals haven't been a good hedge in decades. Equities have held up in part because everything else is even worse.

I'm more worried about a huge credit event looming. Credit card debt is massive right now and with interest rates, it's just not sustainable. People are borrowing at credit card rates to buy food and pay utilities. Home market is screwed, people buying at high prices, with 7% mortgages and almost nothing down. They are going to default in a massive wave. My neighbor's house went "under agreement" on the first open house day. That was a month and 3 more "under agreements" ago. Meanwhile, anybody with a cheap mortgage can't afford to move, so supply drops dramatically.

That’s precisely why now’s the time to buy them. With interest rates going up bonds and treasuries are attractive. Or like I told the other dumb dumb just find over bought stocks and sell them short. You do know how Joseph P Kennedy made the family fortune? It wasn’t bootlegging either.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

I had a grad level class at UConn on valuing Options and Futures. Lots of calculus. Back then you could predict the prices accurately and it was mostly about arbitrage opportunities to keep the market honest. All the math is gone. Rational behavior is gone. Just rampant speculation. You try relying on those valuations now and you'll get killed.

Options are not complicated, they’re actually quite simple. Both “put” and “call” options are contracts that give the trader the option to either sell his holdings at a price above the current market price (a put), or to purchase shares at a price that’s quite a bit under the current market price.