OT: Stock trading | Page 163 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

husky429 said:
I'm confused what you think "timing the market" is, if you don't think this is timing the market. Genuine question... not trying to be snarky. In my world, this is abput as close to a dictionary definition of someone who "times the market" as I could imagine.

Not timing the market is people who DCA, or invest every January 1st or something. The boglehead folks.
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There is a big difference in timing the market based on macro trends, and trying to pick the peaks and valleys of specific stocks. You can't do the latter, you can do the former with some reasonable degree of success.

The problem we have is that for 60 years into the 1990s things were pretty normal and predictable. Then we got the internet, which changed everything, both access to information, speculation on that information and the ability to trade online. That was disruptive as hell. Then we had almost 20 years of markets that were more volatile, but still with some patterns that could be predicted. Now we are back in uncharted waters again. The bond market isn't behaving rationally. The Treasury market was, until the last week or so, not behaving rationally. That spooked the ever loving crap out of everyone.

Between Covid, the Ukraine/Russia war, a major attempted shift in energy supply and fractures in the global supply chain, we've got the most dynamic change since the internet/information age. The risk/reward at this juncture is really high. You can't time this because it's unprecedented.
 
Chief00 said:
I view it as managing risk and opportunities. Remember, $100 goes up 50% and you got $150, then it goes down 50% and you have $75.
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Well, we just view it differently. I get the math, but it's based on timing.
 
Fed will probably do two more rate increases and then pause into 2023. I’ve been averaging down periodically in some of my blue chippers and ETFs but I’m in it for the long haul with those and then I have a couple of flyers (DPLS, UAVS, VTGN, ABML) for the REALLY long haul.

T-Bills aren’t terrible to park money in at the moment for the short term. 3 month is 3.3ish YTM and 6 month around 3.8

“We want to buy good companies when they’re on the operating table”. - Uncle Warren Buffett
 
Chin Diesel said:
Boeing below $130?

Buying more.
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Lockheed Martin is a better long term play, it's expensive, but the F35 program and the new Korean fighter program will continue to provide profit.

Boeing's experiencing issues with delayed dream liner delivers and 737 groundings. The Apache is being replaced and Boeing is not sure to win the next generation attack copter.

I like BA, but I would not be surprised if it drops a bit more then flattens for a while. Just my 2 cents
 
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B1GEast said:
Lockheed Martin is a better long term play, it's expensive, but the F35 program and the new Korean fighter program will continue to provide profit.

Boeing's experiencing issues with delayed dream liner delivers and 737 groundings. The Apache is being replaced and Boeing is not sure to win the next generation attack copter.

I like BA, but I would not be surprised if it drops a bit more then flattens for a while. Just my 2 cents
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Yeah, Boeing's commercial siding is a major drag bit I like it for a nice turnaround in a year or two.

For pure defense Northrop Grumman has done me well. Used to have Lockheed stock but swapped it for Northrop.
 
I know not everyone here is into crypto but I’d recommend looking into ISO 20022 compliant crypto sooner than later if you haven’t already. These are set to replace the global cross border financial transfer system. Huge opportunity, I personally like Hedera (HBAR), Quant (QNT) and Ripple (XRP).

medium.datadriveninvestor.com

The Biggest Change to our Financial System in 50 years is happening in November…

International Payments are moving to the blockchain — ISO 20022
medium.datadriveninvestor.com medium.datadriveninvestor.com
 
Chin Diesel said:
Yeah, Boeing's commercial siding is a major drag bit I like it for a nice turnaround in a year or two.

For pure defense Northrop Grumman has done me well. Used to have Lockheed stock but swapped it for Northrop.
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Look into cyber defense names for the 21st century
 
Chief00 said:
The chain reaction accident is still in progress. The ambulance hasn’t come yet.
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The ambulance is there, but the EMTs are a group of serial killers we call the Fed, doing their best to kill the patient.
 
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This is why I caution about the dead cat bounce. Not the time to go for head fakes.
68E0BAF3-7B46-4965-B7DC-2573BD7B43E8.jpeg
 
YANG (3x China bear) has been on the rise. Lots of bad financial news coming from that country as of late.
 
Sooo META got absolutely smoked after hours today. Google down quite a bit today too. Tomorrow should be fun.
 
This is wild. 32 billion dollar “valuation” to bankruptcy. A billion in client funds missing. The founders were arrested in the Bahamas. What scumbags these people were.

www.theguardian.com

At least $1bn in investor assets missing after FTX collapse – reports

Sources tell Reuters funds were part of $10bn founder Sam Bankman-Fried transferred to his hedge fund
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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Vanguard won't allow me to buy certain stocks.

Anyone know if Fidelity has the same policy?

Vanguard does not allow purchases in OTC securities except for some American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
 
temery said:
Vanguard won't allow me to buy certain stocks.

Anyone know if Fidelity has the same policy?

Vanguard does not allow purchases in OTC securities except for some American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
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Dig a bit deeper within Vanguard for the reasons.

They got out of penny stocks about a year ago. I have an IRA through them which is a combo of Vanguard Funds and individual stocks. A couple of my "penny" stocks got shut down within the last year where I can hold them but I can't buy more of them or buy in to other penny stocks.

Basically Vanguard is really good at funds and wants to discourage their investors from chasing penny stocks.
 
temery said:
Vanguard won't allow me to buy certain stocks.

Anyone know if Fidelity has the same policy?

Vanguard does not allow purchases in OTC securities except for some American Depositary Receipts (ADRs).
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Supposedly, yes. if you give me a ticker symbol I can confirm whether it is available.

www.brokereviews.com

Does Fidelity trade OTC stocks? - Brokereveiws Financial Community Discussions

Does Fidelity trade over-the-counter (OTC) stocks, and what are the fees attached to this? Do you know if Fidelity has a day trade counter?
www.brokereviews.com www.brokereviews.com
 
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I don’t see this as a dead cat bounce. It’s looking more and more likely that we may be able to avoid a deep recession and we have inflation under control. The gravy train is over for some middle managers at large cap high growth tech stocks (Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.), but overall the economy is very strong. The market could see another 15-20% move up in the next few months but I expect it may cool a bit this summer before taking off again. Now is the time to get back in if you’ve been waiting.
 
Hurleyman216 said:
I don’t see this as a dead cat bounce. It’s looking more and more likely that we may be able to avoid a deep recession and we have inflation under control. The gravy train is over for some middle managers at large cap high growth tech stocks (Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.), but overall the economy is very strong. The market could see another 15-20% move up in the next few months but I expect it may cool a bit this summer before taking off again. Now is the time to get back in if you’ve been waiting.
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Credit card debt at an all time high, unpaid car loans at an all time high, earnings down in big sectors, interest rates high, inflation high, national debt to GDP getting worse, housing finally plateaued thru all of this…

If it moves up 20% I’d triple down on a massive recession soon.
 
CTBasketball said:
Credit card debt at an all time high, unpaid car loans at an all time high, earnings down in big sectors, interest rates high, inflation high, national debt to GDP getting worse, housing finally plateaued thru all of this…

If it moves up 20% I’d triple down on a massive recession soon.
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Don’t think you guys fully understand how the markets work…it’s looking 6 months out which means right now in terms of the markets it’s looking at August. The market corrected last year in anticipation of a recession, but the leading indicators of that recession (high inflation and high wage growth) are both coming down significantly.
 
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