OT: Stock trading

[B1GEast]

This is why I never even open my statements. For almost 30 years now.

The only time I've looked is when I had to fill out some CSS forms for potential financial aid for our kids' college, which was a total waste of time.

Except last week I got a statement for a rollover 401k from a job I left almost 25 years ago and I was curious what was in it (more than I expected!). The first page showed my asset breakdown as 100% stocks, and my suggested asset breakdown for my age showing around 30% bonds. Thinking I should probably make some adjustments on that point at some point soon.

But my point is that I am probably the furthest thing from @B1GEast 's day-trading mentality.

Not technically a day trader, but I am active, and cautious. If I see an opportunity I'll take it.

You have the right long-term outlook and you'll be fine. I'm looking to maximize where I can as a small investor in a challenging market where the daily swings and betas are high.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Seeing as I don't expect to retire--ever--this is probably even better advice for me.

As loathed as ES reasonably is in CT and DUK is in their region (both hoops team & ethically vacuous utility alike), their respective divs don't sukc for reasonably dependable cash flow (AARP decades or not). Hold some of each, plus NEE and VPU.

NEE's a FL utility with more extensive alt wind, solar, battery storage, etc than many (most?) utilities as a kicker. Other growth region utilities (D, SO?). Not so much under-invested TX utilities?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Enjoying this week's continued tech rally. Might be time for a beer soon.

 

[Excalibur]

Others are bigger experts than I am. The 30% bonds and sliding up for people our age was spot on in the 80s (when I majored in finance) and probably 90's. But the tendencies of the fed on interest rates has made the bond market more volatile than it was. It was also based on people retiring and dying earlier. Now if you shift out of equities too soon you may regret it in later years. I think dividend stocks, even utilities are a better play than bonds. I bought DUK (Duke energy) for my IRA years ago. It's solid as a rock in down times but still goes up over time and averages a 4% yield.

There's a difference between holding bonds and bond funds. Holding bonds to maturity and laddering for income purposes isn't a bad play for retirees, particularly now with prices down so there is no premium. Not suggesting that it's the only thing one should do, but it's not crazy to make it part of your strategy.

I don't own any bond funds save for some inflation-linked funds, but I am holding and intend to hold bond issuances from FedEx, IBM, and AB-Inbev.

 

[temery]

There's a difference between holding bonds and bond funds. Holding bonds to maturity and laddering for income purposes isn't a bad play for retirees, particularly now with prices down so there is no premium. Not suggesting that it's the only thing one should do, but it's not crazy to make it part of your strategy.

I don't own any bond funds save for some inflation-linked funds, but I am holding and intend to hold bond issuances from FedEx, IBM, and AB-Inbev.

How do you buy FedX, IBM, etc bonds?

 

[HuskyHawk]

How do you buy FedX, IBM, etc bonds?

Broker should have a large selection of corporate bonds and muni bonds. Both resale and new issue. Fidelity does. Not sure you get that with something like Robinhood.

 

[temery]

Broker should have a large selection of corporate bonds and muni bonds. Both resale and new issue. Fidelity does. Not sure you get that with something like Robinhood.

I use Vanguard. Guess I'll have to ask them. Best move I've made in the past two years as far as bonds are concerned is buying I Bonds. $15k/year currently @ 9+%. Not sure about long term, but it's looking like a good move right now.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I use Vanguard. Guess I'll have to ask them. Best move I've made in the past two years as far as bonds are concerned is buying I Bonds. $15k/year currently @ 9+%. Not sure about long term, but it's looking like a good move right now.

Vanguard would certainly have them. Assuming the website looks like others, go to the fixed income section, there should be CDs, new issue bonds, resale bonds. Bonds will be broken into Treasury, Agency, Muni, Corporate by grade/rating. Muni will have some tax benefits. I wouldn't stray out of the A rating. There's a risk/yield tradeoff and that is my line.

 

[huskyinfl]

You can't buy I Bonds from Vanguard. Bonds can only be purchased at local banks or directly through the U.S. Treasury savings bond program (TreasuryDirect.gov).

 

[temery]

You can't buy I Bonds from Vanguard. Bonds can only be purchased at local banks or directly through the U.S. Treasury savings bond program (TreasuryDirect.gov).

I know. That's how I bought them. Limit is $15k/year.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Nice recovery today. Lead by tech again. Feeling less poor. This is good because my kid's college bill just showed up.

 

[huskyinfl]

I know. That's how I bought them. Limit is $15k/year.

It's really enticing but I am gun shy. 9.62% Best of luck

 

[temery]

Thank you, TTD!

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Thank you, TTD!

Particularly if bought late June-early July

 

[upstater]

I got out of my ZS purchase that I posted here a few months ago. I could not let a 40% gain ride because they are due to report earnings and the sector has been weak this quarter (Fortinet reported headwinds in earnings and got pummeled). So, I'll wait to see what happens after earnings report. I think a few stocks in this sector (PANW or CRWD) might get hurt the way Fortinet did, and I don't want to see this 40% gain erased.

If the earnings are good and the market environment holds I would even buy back higher. Out at 180.

I am keeping my Amazon purchase since this stock still hasn't rebounded appropriately with the market.

 

[upstater]

I am buying starting the last hour. Dow down 700, Nasdaq 370. Powell did not say anything unexpected this morning. I’m in ZS again, GOOG, AMZN, nibbling at PANW but I think it can go a lot lower.

 

[Scud49]

SAVA may be close to FDA approval for their Alzheimers drug. One insider just bought in rather bigly. Stock is up from about $15 one month ago to $29 this morning.

 

[UCTitleTown]

Buy Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. Defense stocks are recession-proof and these companies also have great prospects with the war in Ukraine and military technology modernization efforts on-going.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don't even want to log in to Fidelity. Undoubtedly getting crushed.

 

[HooperScooper]

I don't even want to log in to Fidelity. Undoubtedly getting crushed.

Yeah today's one of those days you just don't want to look. Although I make my wife look just so she feels like she shouldn't be spending money. Unfortunately most of the time she still spends anyway but just says she feels a little guilty for doing so.

 

[Chief00]

Unfortunately, it will get worse as big companies tighten spending and lay-off people this fall. This is just the start. Main current exposures are dividend paying utilities, energy, and storage stocks. After the carnage ends and it may be a long while - will get back into chip stocks, and high quality techs such as Cisco and Apple.

 

[Scud49]

You can always short the markets via ETF's like SQQQ, SDS, etc. And if China bellies up CHAD and YANG are the places to be. Remember Michael Burry and what he accomplished back in '08 in those volatile times.

 

[Chief00]

You can always short the markets via ETF's like SQQQ, SDS, etc. And if China bellies up CHAD and YANG are the places to be. Remember Michael Burry and what he accomplished back in '08 in those volatile times.

I dislike rooting for the negative macro but using a Bear Fund sometimes I will short 15% or so to hedge against a downside, but more often just go to cash. This past year, bond funds haven’t offered the expected diversification from stock downside - so I left bonds by MLK Day. A utilities fund has been decent considering the bad environment. Japan has also been interesting.

 

[upstater]

Inflation is slowing down fast. CPI has dropped off a cliff. The last two months have gone backwards, not even flat.

The fed is proactive and always tries to get ahead, but they won't figure out they've clamped down hard until it's already obvious to anyone, especially Wall Street.

In other words, Wall Street will start buying 6 months BEFORE the upturn. And if that upturn is in 7 months, that means Wall Street will start buying this month.

 

[Chief00]

Inflation is slowing down fast. CPI has dropped off a cliff. The last two months have gone backwards, not even flat.

The fed is proactive and always tries to get ahead, but they won't figure out they've clamped down hard until it's already obvious to anyone, especially Wall Street.

In other words, Wall Street will start buying 6 months BEFORE the upturn. And if that upturn is in 7 months, that means Wall Street will start buying this month.

The reason inflation has fallen off is that we are in a Recession. Corporations are adjusting both their 2022 and 2023 budgets accordingly. Chief will not be doing any significant buying anytime soon, unless the market totally tanks.
Energy is a big question mark. Europe is most vulnerable to Soviet energy pullbacks during the winter months. Gas tax holidays will be ending, yet at some point the U.S. has major work to do replenishing our energy reserves drawn down to dangerous levels. When we do that it will have the reverse impact of when we released it. If the Recession is as deep as some fear there may not be as much of a spike, due to a pullback in demand. I love your optimism and it’s complicated but I would error on the side of being very cautious given the macro economic environment.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Inflation is slowing down fast. CPI has dropped off a cliff. The last two months have gone backwards, not even flat.

The fed is proactive and always tries to get ahead, but they won't figure out they've clamped down hard until it's already obvious to anyone, especially Wall Street.

In other words, Wall Street will start buying 6 months BEFORE the upturn. And if that upturn is in 7 months, that means Wall Street will start buying this month.

I don't know when it happens. Pointless to time it. I'd say this: almost every major stock or index you'd consider buying will be higher 2 years from now than it is now.

 

[B1GEast]

While we're on the subject, there's a difference between the economy and the market and they don't always align.

Employment numbers are still strong, and companies are reporting profits.

Certain sectors will be harder hit. Fuel and energy, food prices and the supply chain will all affect how things turn out.

I think there is a global reset and offshoring and globalization will slow down. You're going to see a drive to nationalism to grow industries locally to avoid supply chain issues.

My whole point is, everything has changed and we can no longer approach investment from a historical point in time.

We are in new territory and the factors of the past no longer apply

 

[8893]

While we're on the subject, there's a difference between the economy and the market and they don't always align.

Employment numbers are still strong, and companies are reporting profits.

Certain sectors will be harder hit. Fuel and energy, food prices and the supply chain will all affect how things turn out.

I think there is a global reset and offshoring and globalization will slow down. You're going to see a drive to nationalism to grow industries locally to avoid supply chain issues.

My whole point is, everything has changed and we can no longer approach investment from a historical point in time.

We are in new territory and the factors of the past no longer apply

 

[Tuna]

I'd say this: almost every major stock or index you'd consider buying will be higher 2 years from now than it is now.

And why is that?

 

[HuskyHawk]

While we're on the subject, there's a difference between the economy and the market and they don't always align.

Employment numbers are still strong, and companies are reporting profits.

Certain sectors will be harder hit. Fuel and energy, food prices and the supply chain will all affect how things turn out.

I think there is a global reset and offshoring and globalization will slow down. You're going to see a drive to nationalism to grow industries locally to avoid supply chain issues.

My whole point is, everything has changed and we can no longer approach investment from a historical point in time.

We are in new territory and the factors of the past no longer apply

It's some pretty bad mismanagement by the fed and other policy makers. That goes for foreign leaders too.

• Inflation was heating up and was ignored and labeled "transitory" when it should have been obvious that printing trillions in a period of constrained supply would trigger massive inflation.
• Fed kept rates artificially low a year after they should have raised them. Then aggressively raised them just as the economy slowed. They have created a see-saw effect, and should probably pause increases and not pursue QE. Just stop.
• The supply chain issues are still not fully resolved. China is having problems. Europe is having something worse than problems. Global businesses are in a challenging place. U.S. companies are diversifying out of China, but that takes time.
• Energy policy further constraining supply, while pumping demand for electricity. Oil has stabilized a bit for now, but winter may still change that. Already fuel oil is scarce in the northeast.
• Housing is a disaster in the U.S. Demand is high, but high rates limit buyers, and lower prices are causing potential sellers to simply stand pat. China real estate situation appears to be worse than terrible.

There's just a lot of uncertainty and headwinds at a macro level.