OT: Stock trading

[uconndogs]

If I've learned anything over a 40 year career in business it's that markets are extraordinarily nuanced. Nothing is more dangerous than arrogance in addressing markets. The moment one believes they have a market such as equity markets figured out, is the moment they will begin to pay a huge price.

Fascinating stuff if you stop and think about it for a bit...........

 

[HuskyHawk]

You are so wrong. Anyone who goes long in the markets now is greedy and not thinking clearly. As I have already said the Stock market has basically gone straight up since 2009. A correction of at least 30% is coming because of many factors. Hedge funds know this, and they have been shorting the the stock market now for several weeks. These are not mom and pop intraday shorts. If you wish to go long on something buy gold, silver, palladium or platinum, 30 year bonds, the price of oil, etc, but don’t buy stocks. Also, I would not pay attention to stock market fundamentals, but would pay strong attention to stock market technicals.

Look at 1982 to 2000. S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends Saw a really fascinating presentation on trends and predictions by Bruce Mehlmen yesterday. Some of his predictions were things I would expect. Others were more interestingly novel. Others short term/political.

My fundamental view is that we in a series of cycles of human advancement that get shorter and shorter. The early industrial revolution lead to the gilded age. Then there was a pause and the depression. The modern industrial age came, then we had a pause to adapt (roughly the 70's) and then the PC and Internet age came. There was a pause to adjust from 2000 to about 2004, when the next period of mobility/EDGE based innovation slowly began. Our bad financial regulatory framework tanked the market from 2007-09, but actual innovation wasn't slowed so many of the companies that went down, shouldn't have. Covid-19 accelerated the path we were on, and we are about to experience fairly massive, rapid change and more importantly, disruption. There will be a down cycle at some point, but I think we are years away. I also think the down cycles will grow increasingly shorter.

We are just barely scratching the surface of the ways we are going to combine the digital with the real. Amazon Disrupts Retail (Again) With New Department Stores (forbes.com) What Uber did to the taxi industry, and Air BnB to the short term rental industry is going to be repeated, over and over. For those here buying LINK, yes they are coming for the banks and payment processing businesses. They are coming for healthcare. They are coming for things we don't anticipate or expect.

So yes, I'm long. But I'm not long everything.

 

[the Q]

I think OHI could be a really good buy right now.

It’s back down to almost early Covid prices and is going to be a major player as more and more of our population ages and lives longer than ever.

Plus you get paid to wait with a juicy 8% yield

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Look at 1982 to 2000. S&P 500 Index - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends Saw a really fascinating presentation on trends and predictions by Bruce Mehlmen yesterday. Some of his predictions were things I would expect. Others were more interestingly novel. Others short term/political.

My fundamental view is that we in a series of cycles of human advancement that get shorter and shorter. The early industrial revolution lead to the gilded age. Then there was a pause and the depression. The modern industrial age came, then we had a pause to adapt (roughly the 70's) and then the PC and Internet age came. There was a pause to adjust from 2000 to about 2004, when the next period of mobility/EDGE based innovation slowly began. Our bad financial regulatory framework tanked the market from 2007-09, but actual innovation wasn't slowed so many of the companies that went down, shouldn't have. Covid-19 accelerated the path we were on, and we are about to experience fairly massive, rapid change and more importantly, disruption. There will be a down cycle at some point, but I think we are years away. I also think the down cycles will grow increasingly shorter.

We are just barely scratching the surface of the ways we are going to combine the digital with the real. Amazon Disrupts Retail (Again) With New Department Stores (forbes.com) What Uber did to the taxi industry, and Air BnB to the short term rental industry is going to be repeated, over and over. For those here buying LINK, yes they are coming for the banks and payment processing businesses. They are coming for healthcare. They are coming for things we don't anticipate or expect.

So yes, I'm long. But I'm not long everything.

Again, watch the market technicals, don’t bother with market fundamentals.

 

[Jaker]

ABML finally broke it's channel to the upside, testing $1.60 again

 

[UConnSwag11]

$CEI

 

[HuskyHawk]

Again, watch the market technicals, don’t bother with market fundamentals.

Technicals are garbage. People mapping trends as those same trends change more rapidly than they can predict. It’s a fool’s errand. Fundamentals don’t mean what they did when I was a finance major at UConn. Now you need to understand change and disruption and attempt to predict it. Most are betting all over hoping to hit a winner.

Tesla has crap fundamentals. It exploded while it had crap fundamentals (and has huge short positions as a result). The technical market is irrelevant to it as well. It’s simply a bet on a change agent that they will pull something off.

 

[Jaker]

$CEI

Yup, nice run up .

 

[Jaker]

Technicals are garbage. People mapping trends as those same trends change more rapidly than they can predict. It’s a fool’s errand. Fundamentals don’t mean what they did when I was a finance major at UConn. Now you need to understand change and disruption and attempt to predict it. Most are betting all over hoping to hit a winner.

Tesla has crap fundamentals. It exploded while it had crap fundamentals (and has huge short positions as a result). The technical market is irrelevant to it as well. It’s simply a bet on a change agent that they will pull something off.

LOL, I would love to see CONN78's technical analysis of Any of the indices and the 30% pullback defined on it. Even the Covid crash of March only brought the DOW down 26% over 4-5 days.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Money that has been in the Asian markets is coming back to US Equities.

Some of the US and western investments in various types of mainland and HK equities are being reallocated, but not all is returning to various types of US equities. Diversifying sure, yet a fair chunk reallocated to other global markets, e.g., developed and emerging alike within Asia and beyond, including Europe, UK, Latam, even Africa, etc.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

I think OHI could be a really good buy right now. Plus you get paid to wait with a juicy 8% yield

Yup, plus other health care REITs, e.g., DOC (leases to hospitals, doctors' office buildings, other healthcare facilities) and MPW (US and global hospitals).

 

[Jaker]

OHI has been trending down for the past 6-7 months, I would wait and see if it tests and holds that $28 support range again.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

LINK: possible sub 20 today after the CCParty boys’ reiteration all crypto ist verboten. Well, except for RMB Crypto and electro-Yuan minting.

 

[the Q]

OHI has been trending down for the past 6-7 months, I would wait and see if it tests and holds that $28 support range again.

That would bring it down to the early pandmeic

At a 9% yield on cost that would fit in literally any profile

 

[the Q]

LINK: possible sub 20 today after the CCParty boys’ reiteration all crypto ist verboten. Well, except for RMB Crypto and electro-Yuan minting.

The Best kind of days

 

[HuskyHawk]

Some of the US and western investments in various types of mainland and HK equities are being reallocated, but not all is returning to various types of US equities. Diversifying sure, yet a fair chunk reallocated to other global markets, e.g., developed and emerging alike within Asia and beyond, including Europe, UK, Latam, even Africa, etc.

I pulled the plug on my EM funds while I ponder where I think growth will come. I think U.S. companies relying on Asian manufacturers will increasingly seek to diversify to this hemisphere. I think more critical components of tech products will start to be made south of Texas somewhere (not Brazil). I'd buy a Panama fund if I knew of one. That's the best positioned country from what I can see.

I think there is room for "cheap manufacturing" to expand beyond China and SE Asia to LATAM and Africa. My t-shirts, underwear and running shoes seem to usually be from Vietnam. Why not Peru?

 

[Jaker]

Picked up some CRPT crypto ETF trust

 

[husky429]

Picked up some CRPT crypto ETF trust

Isn't the company managing that run by Anthony Scaramucci? Or am I thinking of a different ETF?

I do love the idea of a cyber economy ETF... I just won't put my money anywhere near something that assclown runns.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

I pulled the plug on my EM funds while I ponder where I think growth will come. I think U.S. companies relying on Asian manufacturers will increasingly seek to diversify to this hemisphere. I think more critical components of tech products will start to be made south of Texas somewhere (not Brazil). I'd buy a Panama fund if I knew of one. That's the best positioned country from what I can see.

I think there is room for "cheap manufacturing" to expand beyond China and SE Asia to LATAM and Africa. My t-shirts, underwear and running shoes seem to usually be from Vietnam. Why not Peru?

For several years+, developed Asian manufacturing nations (JP, HK, KR, TW, SG, and mainland China) have shifted increasing levels of value-add work within Asia. Even in mainland China, rising 1st tier city costs began pushing work west and to the far north even in 2010; 2nd tier for several years.

More "cheap(est)" Asia manufacturing's extensively moved/moving within Asia. For example, textiles, widget assembly, etc to Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, less so MY, TH, and VN (Or, to Central America; increasingly see clothing made in Honduras, El Salvador, etc).

Vietnam's deep harbors and relatively low labor costs attract(ed) increased manufacturing, yet VN's getting pricey for lowest-value add assembly. Still, the VNM ETF's mentioned months/ a year back's been very good (less so recently due to SARS-2 which is now subsiding despite Nike's recent comments).

Kept good chunk of Asian EM ETF allocation yet diversified AND hedged mainland big time. Re-allocated some of mainland ETF holdings, and rest of EM to INDA and SMIN (India), ILF (Latam), CEE, with a tiny bit to AFK (Africa).

Given Peru's messy government status, resource nationalization threats, etc, PE's not so enticing IMHO. Post-Nov Chilean election maybe, yet ILF covers both flaky PE and Chile, BR, AG, CO, etc.

Panama? No clue on a Panama-specific ETF. Consider BLX mentioned several months/year back. Panama City-based, Latin America trade finance bank. Panamanian grad school colleagues view BLX favorably and reportedly know all of the lead execs well. BLX has been very good for me, is perceived to have decent upside potential, and pays a 6% yield. No plan to sell. Costa Rica? Both such tiny equity markets.

Not advice, just some BSing

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

The Best kind of days

Not quite as "Best" as hoped, yet added a bit at 21.78 after LINK started rising this morning. Darn, I wanted sub-20! Weekend?

 

[HuskyHawk]

For several years+, developed Asian manufacturing nations (JP, HK, KR, TW, SG, and mainland China) have shifted increasing levels of value-add work within Asia. Even in mainland China, rising 1st tier city costs began pushing work west and to the far north even in 2010; 2nd tier for several years.

More "cheap(est)" Asia manufacturing's extensively moved/moving within Asia. For example, textiles, widget assembly, etc to Bangladesh, Cambodia, Laos, less so MY, TH, and VN (Or, to Central America; increasingly see clothing made in Honduras, El Salvador, etc).

Vietnam's deep harbors and relatively low labor costs attract(ed) increased manufacturing, yet VN's getting pricey for lowest-value add assembly. Still, the VNM ETF's mentioned months/ a year back's been very good (less so recently due to SARS-2 which is now subsiding despite Nike's recent comments).

Kept good chunk of Asian EM ETF allocation yet diversified AND hedged mainland big time. Re-allocated some of mainland ETF holdings, and rest of EM to INDA and SMIN (India), ILF (Latam), CEE, with a tiny bit to AFK (Africa).

Given Peru's messy government status, resource nationalization threats, etc, PE's not so enticing IMHO. Post-Nov Chilean election maybe, yet ILF covers both flaky PE and Chile, BR, AG, CO, etc.

Panama? No clue on a Panama-specific ETF. Consider BLX mentioned several months/year back. Panama City-based, Latin America trade finance bank. Panamanian grad school colleagues view BLX favorably and reportedly know all of the lead execs well. BLX has been very good for me, is perceived to have decent upside potential, and pays a 6% yield. No plan to sell. Costa Rica? Both such tiny equity markets.

Not advice, just some BSing

All good stuff. You know the Asian economies much better than I do. I just expect (a) pressure from US Government to expand supply of critical components outside of China's sphere of influence and (b) shipping costs, to drive diversity of supply (tech specifically). You are right on Honduras, I have seen that. Will look at BLX.

I really pulled out of the ETFs due to my own lack of confidence in my understanding of the Asian markets. I need to do more before diving back in. I stay away from what I don't know, even in the U.S. That makes me less diversified than I should be.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

All good stuff. You know the Asian economies much better than I do. I just expect (a) pressure from US Government to expand supply of critical components outside of China's sphere of influence and (b) shipping costs, to drive diversity of supply (tech specifically).

Don't disagree. Agree on market divergence, you know far more techie stuff, and emerging, non-mainland markets appear to be balancing their delivery to both western and mainland buyers. Best example, Singapore. Separately, Vietnam works closely with Korean and Japanese companies. Some others may increasingly suck up to Winnie the Pooh (Xi) and his CCParty boys, e.g., Laos. Or, end up sort of or literally sucked up. Taiwan? Time will tell, and western companies and nations have plenty of alternatives closer to home. Ideally, NarcoMexico cleans up its' cluster mess.

 

[Jaker]

Isn't the company managing that run by Anthony Scaramucci? Or am I thinking of a different ETF?

I do love the idea of a cyber economy ETF... I just won't put my money anywhere near something that assclown runns.

Yes that is the fund that Scaramucci pimps, not sure if he actually manages it.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Forget the fundamentals and the technicals. Forget what your grandfather taught you as this market doesn't play by the old rules. Play the volatility, just like crypto. Buy and sell in increments. Always take profits each green day like the next will fall off the cliff. Then BTFD. I sold GEVO up to $8 and bought back in down to $6. This is the way.

My cousin panics on big dips and doesn't buy. Then he pump chases like everything will be AMC. This is not the way.

 

[Jay-Bone]

GEVO - Renewable fuel company up ~42% earlier after CVX-GEVO aviation fuel partnership announced. GEVO now ~36% up. Not selling either.

Always take profits. Even if only a portion of holdings. Welcome to pump n dump school.