OT: Stock trading

[the Q]

I was of the belief BTC would ping pong in the 30's for a while. This re-pump and slow sustainable growth into the 40's is leading me to now believe otherwise. If BTC does anything erratically, you might see $20 Link again. Either a dump or a flash pump to $60k where everybody wants to be in BTC. Not sure that will happen though and think steady growth in the 40's and Link in the upper $20's will occur. That's just my uninformed opinion. I don't keep up with it like I used to.

Then again, an Elon tweet could make it happen.

Let’s see what happens if this crypto stuff goes through on the infrastructure bill

It’s a tough spot for everyone to be in because there’s no question imo that crypto hits all 4 parts of the Howey test so it could certainly be a security, but it is also kind of commodity like as gold is

 

[UConnSwag11]

DKNG to buy GNOG. Holders of GNOG get .036 shares of New Draft Kings

 

[uconntoatl]

Let’s see what happens if this crypto stuff goes through on the infrastructure bill

It’s a tough spot for everyone to be in because there’s no question imo that crypto hits all 4 parts of the Howey test so it could certainly be a security, but it is also kind of commodity like as gold is

Hard to have a blanket regulation to crytpo, as every token/coin serves a different purpose based on it's functionality within that companies ecosystem/blockchain/product.

 

[the Q]

Hard to have a blanket regulation to crytpo, as every token/coin serves a different purpose based on it's functionality within that companies ecosystem/blockchain/product.

It’s still an asset class. You could say the same for stocks and that’s why they have mlp and reits

 

[UConnSwag11]

SPRT

 

[Chin Diesel]

AMC with an actual earnings report after yesterday's close which could take it from WSB meme stock status to a post COVID rebound stock status.

Up almost 8% pre market.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Hard to have a blanket regulation to crytpo, as every token/coin serves a different purpose based on it's functionality within that companies ecosystem/blockchain/product.

It’s still an asset class. You could say the same for stocks and that’s why they have mlp and reits

Senate is blocking what was proposed by the House. I think some regulation is needed. I think some of crypto is really just a company, with a product that has chosen to rely on crypto, rather than something more like bitcoin. Some of them really should be stocks. My concern is that almost nobody in Congress understands it, and anything they do now is almost certain to be the wrong thing. Meanwhile, China is cracking down as expected, which is going to disadvantage China. We need to take a cautious approach that doesn't stifle innovation.

 

[pauliepeppas]

if you guys arent following @buysellshort yet please do ....gem after gem

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

Senate is blocking what was proposed by the House. I think some regulation is needed. I think some of crypto is really just a company, with a product that has chosen to rely on crypto, rather than something more like bitcoin. Some of them really should be stocks. My concern is that almost nobody in Congress understands it, and anything they do now is almost certain to be the wrong thing. Meanwhile, China is cracking down as expected, which is going to disadvantage China. We need to take a cautious approach that doesn't stifle innovation.

Yes on all, but possibly the 2nd to last sentence. As Spartacus'd as much of the mainland's CCParty boys regulatory crackdowns on some equities may be, IMHO it's far less clear the Central Government reeling in domestic mining and creation of an RMB-based crypto is all bad. Reasonable or not, it's unlikely BTC, ETH, LINK let alone less credible cryptos will be accepted in the mainland. Accommodated sure, the Yuan Crypto IMHO will end up an internationally-convertible cryptocurrency enabling international trade, fund transfers, etc. Different environment, different strokes for different folks for a fairly large global economy.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Yes on all, but possibly the 2nd to last sentence. As Spartacus'd as much of the mainland's CCParty boys regulatory crackdowns on some equities may be, IMHO it's far less clear the Central Government reeling in domestic mining and creation of an RMB-based crypto is all bad. Reasonable or not, it's unlikely BTC, ETH, LINK let alone less credible cryptos will be accepted in the mainland. Accommodated sure, the Yuan Crypto IMHO will end up an internationally-convertible cryptocurrency enabling international trade, fund transfers, etc. Different environment, different strokes for different folks for a fairly large global economy.

I get that they will survive working on the outside. I just think it weakens them through further isolation. If the tech itself proves useful, they won't have it. It's inherently decentralized and too hard to control. Sooner or later the policy of censorship and isolation from information will fail, just as it did in the USSR. And they didn't even have to contend with the internet. If Hollywood refused to play along, it would happen quicker. That said, you know way more about China than I do.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

I get that they will survive working on the outside. I just think it weakens them through further isolation. If the tech itself proves useful, they won't have it. It's inherently decentralized and too hard to control. Sooner or later the policy of censorship and isolation from information will fail, just as it did in the USSR ...

Time will tell, yet my take is "West Taiwan" (mainland) will end up far less isolationist than more than many westerners now project. Less compliant with post-WW II western powers sure, but potentially far removed from isolationist. More high-population growth eastern Asia, southern hemisphere and Russkie oriented than the UK, EU, North American and ANZAC nations prefer. Separate, yet different including the RMB crypto which will likely tie in/into global cryptocurrency exchanges.

If (or when?) wayyyyyyy more mainlanders truly objected to domestic controls, western-perceived isoliationism, censorship, etc, the global internet might matter more. However, the vast majority simply do not. At least now, and mainland China is massively removed from the USSR. Just no comparison based on direct experiences shortly after the Berlin Wall fell, living/work experience shortly thereafter in ex-Warsaw Pact nations and Russkiville, and more recently in "West Taiwan" (mainland China).

Hollywood, pfft. Humorously and ironically, Hollywood wing nuts bend over backwards kowtowing to the CCParty Boys' whims. However, mainlanders can and oft do access any Hollywood and other western films, many western websites and news sources, same same with domestic info, etc. Nationalism is rife and censorship obviously occurs, yet info's availed via fairly readily available VPNs.

Time will tell ...

 

[UConnSwag11]

FUBO crushed it. Also launched their sports book

 

[ClifSpliffy]

Poly Network pleads for hackers to return assets after $611 million crypto heist (msn.com)
but you knew this, amiright?
'pleads?' 'pleads?'

 

[UCPharma11]

Definitely very bullish on LINK. If you haven't already ready their thesis, use case and all their new/past partnerships from SmartCon then wtf you waiting for. IMO in the next crypto bull market a lot of the crap coins will lose massive market crap/fail in the end leaving the cream of the crop/survival of the fittest. Link at 13 the other day was a gift.

 

[Jay-Bone]

crap coins will lose massive market crap/fail in the end leaving the cream of the crop/survival of the fittest.

Meh, people been saying this for 3 years. Doge is #7.

 

[UConnSwag11]

Yellen and the entire US gov, are starting to go after decentralized exchanges and the swaps. Their goal is to make all exchanges like Coinbase and get rid of private wallets. Their goal then is to be able to track everything

 

[UConnSwag11]

NIO earnings today

 

[uconntoatl]

Definitely very bullish on LINK. If you haven't already ready their thesis, use case and all their new/past partnerships from SmartCon then you waiting for. IMO in the next crypto bull market a lot of the crap coins will lose massive market crap/fail in the end leaving the cream of the crop/survival of the fittest. Link at 13 the other day was a gift.

Link's Cross Chain Interoperability Protocol launching in a couple of months.

Mark who in the world are you talking about? LINK

 

[Scud49]

Highly intriguing - SRNG becomes DNA:

 

[HuskyHawk]

We started discussing this in another thread so I decided to start a new thread. Would love to know what sectors and stocks people are in, with successes and if you want to share, bad trades or holds. My brief story below:

Traded a lot from 99-01 but volatility of Dot Com Market collapse forced me out with a decent profit. Fast forward19 years, I dove back in at the bottom in March. Had some success trading Comcast the first week, got caught in a bad trade with Citrix. Had an initial wishlist of NFLX, DOCU, Roku and Comcast. Didn’t pull the trigger quickly enough and watched most run away. Roku and Gartner I’ve been in and out of but just can’t seem to win on them. Two big winners have been DocuSign and Five Nine Inc (FIVN). I’m out now except for a small position in DocuSign, as I expect tech stocks to sell off soon and want to be ready to buy on dip.

Stocks Im looking at adding:
MSFT
AMZN
FB
ROKU
TWLO
FIVN
BX (Blackstone)
Tesla
OKTA
PENN
Walmart
CCL (Carnival)
IT (Gartner)

I got in on MSFT and AMZN a long time ago. Not for retail and consumer business, but for hyperscaler cloud computing (AWS, Azure). Google is strong there too, if probably less so among larger business clients. FB is precarious in my view, entirely ad revenue driven. Telsa has been bid up awfully far. I'm not sure what ROKU does to grow, especially competing with Amazon, Google and Apple, all of whom have broader platforms and ecosystems. Partnering with the Chinese TV manufacturers like TCL was smart, but is it enough? It's the lesson we should have learned when IBM screwed up and handed the PC industry to Microsoft.

In the tech space, I'm looking at either innovation or a moat or both. Microsoft and Amazon have a moat, so does Goog. TSLA is an innovation play. I bought NOW not too long ago, because it's the absolute leader in what it does, and what it does is a key platform for internal web based process automation. Walmart has a moat, but I think Target is better positioned. I had Netflix early too, back when it was DVDs in envelopes. Didn't see the steaming coming as fast as it did, because the bandwidth wasn't there. It was a learning experience. Docusign is one where they compete with Adobe, Citirix and others. E-signature are here to stay and they are the clear leader, but I expect they may need to be acquired, and integrated into a bigger platform. Something like CRM. That's a company with a moat. In the Software space, I look for ecosystems. Salesforce, Service Now, vmWare, those are platforms. Docusign is an add-on or standalone that is fairly easily replaced by a competitor.

It's tough to pick winners, rather than just going with an ETF.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Damn, opened up Fidelity expecting to be down, and I'm up. Lowes is up 10% today. This is where I say I saw it coming and wish I bought more.

 

[UConnSwag11]

AMD getting wrecked

 

[UConnSwag11]

AMD woof

 

[tentoes4rings]

Damn, opened up Fidelity expecting to be down, and I'm up. Lowes is up 10% today. This is where I say I saw it coming and wish I bought more.

Expected to see red in my portfolio yesterday too. Fortunately SE and UPST carried the day.

 

[UConnSwag11]

XDC and EWT

 

[HuskyCLT]

Crypto is on fire the last month. This past week ADA and SOL especially have gone absolutely bonkers.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

After unloading most of US-listed China big tech shares & ADRs in June and July, then exercising KWEB puts and SPY puts this week, and observing LINK, it's been an interesting week. Added some VWAGY, and bit more of prior holdings discounted for varying reasons aside from overall global sentiments and a general run from the mainland hills' sales.

 

[Jay-Bone]

Not sure that will happen though and think steady growth in the 40's and Link in the upper $20's will occur.

Well, I was right for 2 weeks, but no idea what happens next. Thoughts? Looks to me we will continue to trickle into the 50's and Link into the 30's. After this potential double top, I'm not sure BTC ever goes below 30 again. Unless economic collapse or serious deregulation occurs. At least until BTC obsoletion and dethroning. Crypto is here to stay, that's for sure.

I wouldn't mind BTC levelling out in the mid-50's and alts getting all the growth thereafter.

 

[Stinger92860]

I should have shared earlier. I bot LAC in June, now up 23%. I think there is still a lot of room for growth. I bot thinking 12-18 months.

 

[Da_Aisijimo_Gou]

I should have shared earlier. I bot LAC in June, now up 23%. I think there is still a lot of room for growth. I bot thinking 12-18 months.

Smart. Barring alternatives (e.g., Somerville company HuskyHawk mentioned; if it goes public), EV plays will require NON-mainland sourced lithium. If you like LAC, consider observing MP. Within about a year, MP will add US lithium processing on top of current mining. Most/all? US and western lithium miners' depend on mainland processing. So, MP's processing for their own AND 3rd-parties' lithium will be a massive differentiator. Added MP <$12 Oct 20 + more <$24 at May dip. Not selling.

Similarly, EVs will require more copper than ICE vehicles. Despite recent FCX's recent dips, not selling for a few years+. Will add should FCX unexpectedly dip below initial Jul 20 buy price.