OT: Stock trading | Page 17 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

XLCenterFan said:
I see it as a hobby and a way to save money. I don't see how people can't see this. Buying safe, blue chip, dividend-paying stocks is so simple even a caveman can do it. If you read the news regularly and keep track of trends and how people are spending, you can make money in the market without being a professional. I am a perfect example. I have a degree, but it's far from finance. For example, if someone who has even half a clue started buying Apple, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft about ten years ago, they've done WELL. It doesn't take a genius or a master's in finance from NYU to see that those are winners. And see my post above (#477). You want to bet against my picks?
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I have a masters in finance, but thanks for the tip. If you believe in the market, buying an S&P 500 fund, with almost zero load, is so simple a caveman can do it. But I'm sure you'll do better.
 
87Xfer said:
I have a masters in finance, but thanks for the tip.
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Go figure. You're one of the "professionals." There are undoubtedly many things that finance types can and should help someone like me with, but picking winning stocks isn't really one of them. Answer me this. Aside from tax advice, and input on things like money markets, or moving money around at certain stages of life, and stuff like that, why would I pay you to tell me to buy Apple, Amazon, or Google?
 
XLCenterFan said:
Go figure. You're one of the "professionals." There are undoubtedly many things that finance types can and should help someone like me with, but picking winning stocks isn't really one of them. Answer me this. Aside from tax advice, and input on things like money markets, or moving money around at certain stages of life, and stuff like that, why would I pay you to tell me to buy Apple, Amazon, or Google?
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As a "professional", I'd suggest you buy Apple, Amazon and Google. Pretty sure the rest of the market hasn't thought of that yet.
 
87Xfer said:
I have a masters in finance, but thanks for the tip. If you believe in the market, buying an S&P 500 fund, with almost zero load, is so simple a caveman can do it. But I'm sure you'll do better.
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I have been investing for 3 years and have easily outperformed the S&P 500 all 3 years. I’ve owned companies like Amazon, Google, Disney, JPMorgan, Johnson and Johnson, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft. Those stocks are profit machines and they all produce things that consumers demand. If they go down, they won’t stay down.
 
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87Xfer said:
I'm still amazed that ordinary, well educated people think they can buy individual stocks and outsmart the market. I assume it's a hobby and not a retirement plan?
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Why does it have to be “outsmarting” the market? As others have said, smart people can choose the top names and make intelligent assessments on whether the market will favor stay at home stocks or ones that will benefit from reopening with a reasonable chance we can ourperform some funds and 401 Ks.

To give you actual data, my work 401 K is down 3% YTD. In April I took advantage of a CARES Act inclusión that allowed me to pull some money out of my 401 at no penalty. Since then I’m up nearly 50% on my own. I took a chance and it paid off. Now I’m mitigating risk by putting the lion’s share longterm into heavyweight companies. It’s always a risk to invest on your own but if you do a lot of research, exhibit discipline and keep a longterm focus, I think it’s absolutely possible to outperform the market.
 
tentoes4rings said:
Why does it have to be “outsmarting” the market? As others have said, smart people can choose the top names and make intelligent assessments on whether the market will favor stay at home stocks or ones that will benefit from reopening with a reasonable chance we can ourperform some funds and 401 Ks.

To give you actual data, my work 401 K is down 3% YTD. In April I took advantage of a CARES Act inclusión that allowed me to pull some money out of my 401 at no penalty. Since then I’m up nearly 50% on my own. I took a chance and it paid off. Now I’m mitigating risk by putting the lion’s share longterm into heavyweight companies. It’s always a risk to invest on your own but if you do a lot of research, exhibit discipline and keep a longterm focus, I think it’s absolutely possible to outperform the market.
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Be careful my friend. You are treading in dangerous waters and I don't even think you know your feet are wet.
 
87Xfer said:
I'm still amazed that ordinary, well educated people think they can buy individual stocks and outsmart the market. I assume it's a hobby and not a retirement plan?
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If a larger number of people decided to get in to the market and educate themselves, there should be a larger raw number of people doing "OK" in it. Right now, if you have some spare change lying around, you can get it and make some surgical strikes. Do I think an amateur should take full control of their finances? heck no.

I do believe most people educated enough and well enough off to have some money lying around can become average at trading. Just like I believe most educated adults with a bit of training can become average at most careers. The reason there are only a small percentage of people in each profession is everyone decides to have a career and spends most of their energy in that field. You have a master's in finance. You probably could learn other career fields if you chose to do so and become competent doing it.
 
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uconndogs said:
Be careful my friend. You are treading in dangerous waters and I don't even think you know your feet are wet.
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I appreciate the warning. What I did wasn’t a huge amount of $, plus I’ve already transitioned out of the more speculative stuff to slower growing but proven companies.
 
Chin Diesel said:
If a larger number of people decided to get in to the market and educate themselves, there should be a larger raw number of people doing "OK" in it. Right now, if you have some spare change lying around, you can get it and make some surgical strikes. Do I think an amateur should take full control of their finances? heck no.

I do believe most people educated enough and well enough off to have some money lying around can become average at trading. Just like I believe most educated adults with a bit of training can become average at most careers. The reason there are only a small percentage of people in each profession is everyone decides to have a career and spends most of their energy in that field. You have a master's in finance. You probably could learn other career fields if you chose to do so and become competent doing it.
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I was a finance major at UConn, and because of my 9th semester took a couple of grad level classes, including valuing options and futures and another math heavy investment class. I used some of that early on in my investing career. But the computerization of the market has changed much of that and valuations don't really follow the models I was taught back in the 80s.

The net result has been that I've done well managing my finances for 30 years, and have never hired a professional. But...my investments have been either in a fairly safe place (SPY, QQQQ) or in a company I know something about. I bought Amazon many years ago, not because of Amazon the retailer, but because of AWS. I added to my Microsoft position because of Azure. I did grab a few things recommended by Motley Fool, including PayPal. And I'd say Motley Fool does a reasonable job for amateur investors without much money at risk.

So to your professionalism angle, I would say that each of us probably knows something about an industry that gives you some insights you can leverage investing. If you know nothing about the company it is a good bet that the pros know a lot more than you do.
 
Man I missed huge on SQ and LOW. SQ was $38 at its March low and today it’s at $104. LOW was $65 at its March low and today it’s at $134. Live and learn.
 
Put 10% in crypto. Can be companies -not just currency- I am just saying if it’s not the future it’s at least part of it.
 
HuskyHawk said:
I was a finance major at UConn, and because of my 9th semester took a couple of grad level classes, including valuing options and futures and another math heavy investment class. I used some of that early on in my investing career. But the computerization of the market has changed much of that and valuations don't really follow the models I was taught back in the 80s.

The net result has been that I've done well managing my finances for 30 years, and have never hired a professional. But...my investments have been either in a fairly safe place (SPY, QQQQ) or in a company I know something about. I bought Amazon many years ago, not because of Amazon the retailer, but because of AWS. I added to my Microsoft position because of Azure. I did grab a few things recommended by Motley Fool, including PayPal. And I'd say Motley Fool does a reasonable job for amateur investors without much money at risk.

So to your professionalism angle, I would say that each of us probably knows something about an industry that gives you some insights you can leverage investing. If you know nothing about the company it is a good bet that the pros know a lot more than you do.
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Great post. AWS and Azure are two big reasons why AMZN and MSFT are two of my 3 biggest holdings. To me they’re like their own diversified mutual funds because of the cloud, retail presence and everything else they offer. Whether circumstances dictate more staying at home or more reopening, those two will prosper either way.
 
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uconntoatl said:
Looks like PayPal is hiring for some crypto/blockhain positions. Rumor has it that they are exploring the idea of offering the ability to exchange Bitcoin & Ethereum to name a few in the future. Take this information as you will
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PayPal is at the top of my wishlist anyway but on such a down day it’s hard to justify throwing more into the market. Despite its surge, future should remain really bright for them and Square.
 
tentoes4rings said:
but on such a down day it’s hard to justify throwing more into the market
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Ha, well, I justified it.

Bought 70 shares of CCL and 100 of HAL on the downturn. They might not bounce back as quickly as they did a few weeks ago, but seem undervalued long term. That's the hope anyway.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Ha, well, I justified it.

Bought 70 shares of CCL and 100 of HAL on the downturn. They might not bounce back as quickly as they did a few weeks ago, but seem undervalued long term. That's the hope anyway.
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I don’t blame you. I had a list of 5-6 names I still want to add but when bloodied so much today I can’t do it. I expect more selling tomorrow morning, might get buy if that happens.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
Ha, well, I justified it.

Bought 70 shares of CCL and 100 of HAL on the downturn. They might not bounce back as quickly as they did a few weeks ago, but seem undervalued long term. That's the hope anyway.
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If I was planning on buying and holding for at least 10 years, I'd buy every airline (Delta, United, American, Alaskan, Spirit, JetBlue) and Cruiseline (Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean). It could be several years before they are back to normal but there's no doubt they will be back. If anything I think they will come out of this stronger. People are going to be dying to fly and cruise after quarantine. Even if they don't think it will be safe for as long as 2-3 years, the demand for travel will surge back.

Live Nation as well...once it's safe to be in crowds again, every concert will be packed.

I might add Disney too. I was looking to buy tickets for next spring/summer and a TON of dates are already sold out. Packages for 2021 were just available to purchase today. Don't anybody underestimate the appeal of Disney. I'm a huge fan, and I admit their prices are absurd, but I can't wait to go back.
 
JimHurley said:
If I was planning on buying and holding for at least 10 years, I'd buy every airline (Delta, United, American, Alaskan, Spirit, JetBlue) and Cruiseline (Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean). It could be several years before they are back to normal but there's no doubt they will be back. If anything I think they will come out of this stronger. People are going to be dying to fly and cruise after quarantine. Even if they don't think it will be safe for as long as 2-3 years, the demand for travel will surge back.

Live Nation as well...once it's safe to be in crowds again, every concert will be packed.

I might add Disney too. I was looking to buy tickets for next spring/summer and a TON of dates are already sold out. Packages for 2021 were just available to purchase today. Don't anybody underestimate the appeal of Disney. I'm a huge fan, and I admit their prices are absurd, but I can't wait to go back.
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A pro would tell you that if you like a particular industry - pick one or two that have better balance sheets and growth prospects rather than "buy every airline and cruiseline". There are bound to be winners and losers in a rebounding industry and you want to do your best to avoid owning a loser.
 
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bear said:
A pro would tell you that if you like a particular industry - pick one or two that have better balance sheets and growth prospects rather than "buy every airline and cruiseline". There are bound to be winners and losers in a rebounding industry and you want to do your best to avoid owning a loser.
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In that case give me United + Alaskan for airlines and Carnival + Royal Caribbean for cruise lines. Bottom line , these industries are beaten up and will provide incredible returns for investors willing to wait it out.
 
JimHurley said:
If I was planning on buying and holding for at least 10 years, I'd buy every airline (Delta, United, American, Alaskan, Spirit, JetBlue) and Cruiseline (Carnival, Norwegian, Royal Caribbean). It could be several years before they are back to normal but there's no doubt they will be back. If anything I think they will come out of this stronger. People are going to be dying to fly and cruise after quarantine. Even if they don't think it will be safe for as long as 2-3 years, the demand for travel will surge back.

Live Nation as well...once it's safe to be in crowds again, every concert will be packed.

I might add Disney too. I was looking to buy tickets for next spring/summer and a TON of dates are already sold out. Packages for 2021 were just available to purchase today. Don't anybody underestimate the appeal of Disney. I'm a huge fan, and I admit their prices are absurd, but I can't wait to go back.
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I did that at first with United, Southwest, and Delta. Then they shot up 70%, started to plummet, and I took profits on 2 of them (still holding LUV). Figured I'd take 50% gain in 2 months rather than 100% in 3-5 years.

If Carnival surges, I might take the quick payday, but if not, I'm not afraid to hold it for a while.

Halliburton is just based on my expectation that oil is oversold right now. It was doing a lot worse a few months ago, but still down considerably in a way that this amateur observer does not think is representative of its long term value.

We're all really just guessing here.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
I did that at first with United, Southwest, and Delta. Then they shot up 70%, started to plummet, and I took profits on 2 of them (still holding LUV). Figured I'd take 50% gain in 2 months rather than 100% in 3-5 years.

If Carnival surges, I might take the quick payday, but if not, I'm not afraid to hold it for a while.

Halliburton is just based on my expectation that oil is oversold right now. It was doing a lot worse a few months ago, but still down considerably in a way that this amateur observer does not think is representative of its long term value.

We're all really just guessing here.
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That is smart for short and moderate term investing. It’s only a matter of time before every cruise line and airline gets to all-time highs. How long that might be is the real question. But it will happen.

Carnival’s all-time Hugh was right around $70. Today it closed at $16.

United’s all-time high was just under $100. Today it closed at $33.

There’s no question at one point or another that these stocks will reclaim those highs. But that’s only for the long-term investor. I plan on selling within 2 years so I can’t put that much risk into it right now.
 
Sold Facebook yesterday. Will buy something else on the next pull back.
 
Today...buy ultra bull index etfs, not as good as one or two months ago, but a decent dip and opp for profit as a long term hold
 
Stinger92860 said:
Today...buy ultra bull index etfs, not as good as one or two months ago, but a decent dip and opp for profit as a long term hold
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Was just telling my friend two minutes ago I like Ulta back at 200. Got in last month at 212 and sold too early at 220, only to see it spike to 255 pre earnings. Select retail names will survive, I think Ulta is definitely one of them.
 
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