OT: Stock trading | Page 12 | The Boneyard

OT: Stock trading

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I think with earnings, it's mostly like Costanza...

If the stock runs up, often lightening up works. If it is weak or sluggish into earnings, prob lower bar to beat.

With AAPL this works a vast majority of the time. (NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE) We're certainly not in a normal market so good luck!!!

Costanza3.jpg
 

HuskyHawk

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I think with earnings, it's mostly like Costanza...

If the stock runs up, often lightening up works. If it is weak or sluggish into earnings, prob lower bar to beat.

With AAPL this works a vast majority of the time. (NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE) We're certainly not in a normal market so good luck!!!

View attachment 54969

Trying to time the market is a fool's errand. Buy and hold. Those pros out there have way more information than we do.
 
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Trying to time the market is a fool's errand. Buy and hold. Those pros out there have way more information than we do.

Sure would have been nice to buy American Airlines yesterday. Up 41% today.

I was thinking about Norwegian or Carvinal cruise lines yesterday but didn't pull the trigger. Up 7-9% today.

We have left sanity well behind.
 
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Sure would have been nice to buy American Airlines yesterday. Up 41% today.

I was thinking about Norwegian or Carvinal cruise lines yesterday but didn't pull the trigger. Up 7-9% today.

We have left sanity well behind.
Ugh. I had Carnival and United a few different times. Was heavily invested in UAL and Delta and United in low 20s but jumped to tech stocks. Good move overall but would sure love to have more than 50 shares of United now.
 
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Ugh. I had Carnival and United a few different times. Was heavily invested in UAL and Delta and United in low 20s but jumped to tech stocks. Good move overall but would sure love to have more than 50 shares of United now.

Heh, I have 75, and a little less than that of Delta and Southwest. It's been like a coke binge the last 2 days. Probably have made more money on my airline positions than my actual job this week.

This makes up for holding GE through the entire second half of the 2010's.
 

Chin Diesel

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Sure would have been nice to buy American Airlines yesterday. Up 41% today.

I was thinking about Norwegian or Carvinal cruise lines yesterday but didn't pull the trigger. Up 7-9% today.

We have left sanity well behind.
Ugh. I had Carnival and United a few different times. Was heavily invested in UAL and Delta and United in low 20s but jumped to tech stocks. Good move overall but would sure love to have more than 50 shares of United now.
Heh, I have 75, and a little less than that of Delta and Southwest. It's been like a coke binge the last 2 days. Probably have made more money on my airline positions than my actual job this week.

This makes up for holding GE through the entire second half of the 2010's.


I stayed away from individual airlines because I had no idea which ones would emerge first.

Boeing has been great for me since I got it about six weeks ago.

Airlines come and go but Airbus and Boeing aren't going anywhere and there's a pretty stiff barrier to entry to build airframes.
 
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Going contrary to the OP. Look at the money being printed to fund Covid relief and the (more) insane debt level the country is taking on. Treasury prices are sky high and yields near historic lows. Play the short position here in the next 12 months
 
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Today....well this morning anyway.....I am a great investor! Everyone should just give me their money and I'll only charge like a 5% management fee. Just PM me and I will provide you wire instructions. I don't provide investment memorandums btw...…..I'm that good!
 

Chin Diesel

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DAL looking good premarket today.


Delta was the airline I was closest to getting in on. Pre corona I had read some stuff saying it was much healthier than American or United. During corona Delta went all in retiring the MD80's/90 earlier than planned and then announced they were getting rid of their 777's reducing their overall quantity of airframes. Makes maintenance costs much cheaper when you have newer and fewer airframes. New engines much more fuel efficient too.
Hopefully all the airlines bought huge chunks of gas with prices so low too.

I think I missed the boat on the big 3 airlines. If there is another drop I might go after American. Not confident on United. I definitely am not investing in any regional or low cost carriers.
 

the Q

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This market and recovery seem wildly overheated to my amateur eye.

I’m curious what the professional who posted earlier thinks right now
 
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Heh, I have 75, and a little less than that of Delta and Southwest. It's been like a coke binge the last 2 days. Probably have made more money on my airline positions than my actual job this week.

This makes up for holding GE through the entire second half of the 2010's.
Even Buffet got out of the airlines. You're in good company.
 
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Even Buffet got out of the airlines. You're in good company.

And he had the courtesy to wait until after I was already into UAL and DAL, causing them to tank. Fortunately they came roaring back.
 

StllH8L8ner

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This market and recovery seem wildly overheated to my amateur eye.

I’m curious what the professional who posted earlier thinks right now
I know you're referencing another guy here but I personally feel, and I have no data to prove this so it's just a hunch, that we could see a pre-election event that causes the market to pull back again in the fall after this big run up. Be it a resurgence in Covid and businesses being locked down again, earnings releases being worse than expected or Godzilla appearing out of nowhere and wreaking havoc, I'm a bit weary of what's going on in the world these days so I may lock in some of these gains soon and leave it in cash for a while
 
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I know you're referencing another guy here but I personally feel, and I have no data to prove this so it's just a hunch, that we could see a pre-election event that causes the market to pull back again in the fall after this big run up. Be it a resurgence in Covid and businesses being locked down again, earnings releases being worse than expected or Godzilla appearing out of nowhere and wreaking havoc, I'm a bit weary of what's going on in the world these days so I may lock in some of these gains soon and leave it in cash for a while

The market correctly predicted today's bounceback in the economic numbers. To really hurt the market (a back to 18,000 kind of move) the Covid spike would have to be big enough to overcrowd ICU beds which isn't very likely. The market will pull back. It has to, if for no other reason that investors want to hang onto their gains. Another thought. Pretty much the whole planet has had a deep economic hit. Which country would you bet on to come back strongest? Probably us, no? And thus the USA markets probably promise the most safety (and best returns) on the Earth. But it's the market. It goes up. It goes down. If it was predictable we would all have Merry Christmas.
 

HuskyHawk

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This market and recovery seem wildly overheated to my amateur eye.

I’m curious what the professional who posted earlier thinks right now

My sense is that it is too broad. Airlines? That remains a risky proposition. There are sectors that will come out of this very, very badly.

What I would suggest to you is that a trend we expected to pick up a lot of steam by 2025 just became a "now" event. What will become evident soon is a massive permanent shift in how we work and engage. That will require infrastructure investments, mostly in IT, but also in office furniture for home (Google just gave all employees $1000 to spend on WFH stuff), monitors, chairs, video conferencing gear etc. There are new IT security systems that need to allow remote access to what were locally secure applications. Apps need more bandwidth to scale and much more. Massive private and public investment.

Gartner said that by 2015 80% of entities would not have a data center, they just updated that. It's happening much faster now. The digital classroom stuff requires even more investment, and the rollout of 5G is being sped up. Some of that will be federal funded, because 5G is the easiest way to provide secure wireless access (compared to wifi). It's also the best way to affordably provide internet to those who don't have it.

If you were an investor in the 1990s you watched a transformation. Cisco barely existed at the start of the decade (market cap $224M) in March 2000 it was $555B. The technology experts I hear from/work with think that this change (EDGE/5G/IOT/Data), which was expected to run more like 2024-2034, will be bigger. The timeframe got moved up.
 
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Anyone take a flier on Hertz? Talk about the classic bankrupt falling knife turns 100% gain in a day.
 

the Q

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My sense is that it is too broad. Airlines? That remains a risky proposition. There are sectors that will come out of this very, very badly.

What I would suggest to you is that a trend we expected to pick up a lot of steam by 2025 just became a "now" event. What will become evident soon is a massive permanent shift in how we work and engage. That will require infrastructure investments, mostly in IT, but also in office furniture for home (Google just gave all employees $1000 to spend on WFH stuff), monitors, chairs, video conferencing gear etc. There are new IT security systems that need to allow remote access to what were locally secure applications. Apps need more bandwidth to scale and much more. Massive private and public investment.

Gartner said that by 2015 80% of entities would not have a data center, they just updated that. It's happening much faster now. The digital classroom stuff requires even more investment, and the rollout of 5G is being sped up. Some of that will be federal funded, because 5G is the easiest way to provide secure wireless access (compared to wifi). It's also the best way to affordably provide internet to those who don't have it.

If you were an investor in the 1990s you watched a transformation. Cisco barely existed at the start of the decade (market cap $224M) in March 2000 it was $555B. The technology experts I hear from/work with think that this change (EDGE/5G/IOT/Data), which was expected to run more like 2024-2034, will be bigger. The timeframe got moved up.

Makes sense.

Data center REITs are probably another good place.

I subscribe to a few Investing newsletters and one sent a video today showing how broadly we are overhyped to levels of the dot com boom. That sounds a little scary.

He even mentioned this buffet index that we were out of whack price wise. Big tech and big pharmaceutical being wildly up make sense. The rest seems crazy with jobs still down, sales and revenue down and companies will be looking to cut expenses
 
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The Dow has shot up 4,000 pts with not more than a 300 pt pullback. Thats nuts. Here's the thing though, tech had gone to new aths whereas prior to these past couple weeks travel stocks were only a quarter of their pre-pandemic levels. Now they are just over 1/2 with re-opening happening. There is a re-balancing act going on. The question now is what hasn't started to recover yet? I was watching OXY and meant to buy Friday at open. It was up pre-market because of the unemployment news so I didn't. It then proceeded to blast off 40%.

1591441755679.png
 
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The Dow has shot up 4,000 pts with not more than a 300 pt pullback. Thats nuts. Here's the thing though, tech had gone to new aths whereas prior to these past couple weeks travel stocks were only a quarter of their pre-pandemic levels. Now they are just over 1/2 with re-opening happening. There is a re-balancing act going on. The question now is what hasn't started to recover yet? I was watching OXY and meant to buy Friday at open. It was up pre-market because of the unemployment news so I didn't. It then proceeded to blast off 40%.

View attachment 55127
There is 8 trillion in white powder. Many have either missed this move or inaccurately bet on a retesting of the lows. With algos being over 80% of daily volume, this could simply be an exaggerated mean reversion. Computer programs are focused on how many standard deviations a stock is from its mean. These programs will always rush in to to names 7 standard deviations away than one. Be careful and take profits. This market can still run but I am not sure how sustainable any of this is. Good luck.
 

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