OT- Predicting Cold Snowy Winter for the Northeast | The Boneyard

OT- Predicting Cold Snowy Winter for the Northeast

veryolddog

veryolddog

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Just got the extended weather report from gas company that pumps Natural Gas from the wells on my property. They say that weather predictions especially the Farmer's Almanac call for a cold snowy winter for the Northeast. They asked me if it was ok to ramp up production for the winter months. Like I really know the answer to that question. So I asked a question. More money? The answer they gave was: Yes. I responded: sure. :) :cool:

I guess that I have the responsibility of making sure that the nice folks of the Northeast are nice and warm for the winter. I hope that this will help the UConn women have an undefeated season.
 
That’s not the long range forecast I’ve been seeing... that one calls for a warmer than normal fall, and a dryer winter. I know we’ve seemed to dodge a bullet here in northwestern CT the past few years... and we’ve missed most of the rain this summer. We didn’t lose power last storm when 800,000 others did. We might be due for a mess.
 
veryolddog said:
Just got the extended weather report from gas company that pumps Natural Gas from the wells on my property. They say that weather predictions especially the Farmer's Almanac call for a cold snowy winter for the Northeast. They asked me if it was ok to ramp up production for the winter months. Like I really know the answer to that question. So I asked a question. More money? The answer they gave was: Yes. I responded: sure. :) :cool:

I guess that I have the responsibility of making sure that the nice folks of the Northeast are nice and warm for the winter. I hope that this will help the UConn women have an undefeated season.
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So when the fossil fuel industry sets out to decide how much to produce based on predictions of future demand, which includes weather related factors, they, of course, go with complex meteorological data from... Farmer's Almanac. Of course they do.
 
I bought a 4wd truck last year and it didn't snow enough to even think of using it last winter. We get a heavy snows about every five years around this part of the country so we are about due.
 
Really got in just a smidge of skiing last season
What with my open heart job and a bad flu.
Cold and snowy makes my (repaired) heart beat fondly.
 
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Ozimoto said:
I bought a 4wd truck last year and it didn't snow enough to even think of using it last winter. We get a heavy snows about every five years around this part of the country so we are about due.
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I bought my first Outback in late January, 1999. People were telling me I was an idiot getting an AWD vehicle that late in the winter. I wound up driving my wife in to work (at a hospital) four times that winter.

I really got the AWD for rain. You know that we often go a month or more with no rain in the summer in Maryland, and in the heavily trafficked areas it gets really slick when it does rain. I had some very close calls a couple of times making unprotected left turns. I will never again buy a car without AWD.
 
Cali man here but spent my military time in DC while living in Maryland. Sometime I miss the east coast winters. Is that strange? Silver Springs was such a nice place in 1988-92.
 
veryolddog said:
Just got the extended weather report from gas company that pumps Natural Gas from the wells on my property. They say that weather predictions especially the Farmer's Almanac call for a cold snowy winter for the Northeast. They asked me if it was ok to ramp up production for the winter months. Like I really know the answer to that question. So I asked a question. More money? The answer they gave was: Yes. I responded: sure. :) :cool:

I guess that I have the responsibility of making sure that the nice folks of the Northeast are nice and warm for the winter. I hope that this will help the UConn women have an undefeated season.
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Thank you.
 
We are 400 miles North of San Diego, right on the coast(Monterey Bay) and even up here we enjoy many mid 60’s, even low 70’s in the winter. Of course, our Winter nights usually get down in the low 40’s and a few nights most years we can get a very light frost(Brrrr!)

But what is interesting is that it can actually be warmer at noon here on New Years Day than it is at noon on 4th of July. In July and early August we get a thick layer of sea fog (euphemistically called a “marine layer“) that is drawn in many nights and then usually “burns off”(another euphemism) between 9AM and noon. In a few cases it doesn’t burn off all day; and on those summer days we might never break 60.

Days like those are what led Mark Twain to say “the coldest Winter I ever spent was one Summer in San Francisco.”
 
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Ex Nutmegger said:
We are 400 miles North of San Diego, right on the coast(Monterey Bay) and even up here we enjoy many mid 60’s, even low 70’s in the winter. Of course, our Winter nights usually get down in the low 40’s and a few nights most years we can get a very light frost(Brrrr!)

But what is interesting is that it can actually be warmer at noon here on New Years Day than it is at noon on 4th of July. In July and early August we get a thick layer of sea fog (euphemistically called a “marine layer“) that is drawn in many nights and then usually “burns off”(another euphemism) between 9AM and noon. In a few cases it doesn’t burn off all day; and on those summer days we might never break 60.

Days like those are what led Mark Twain to say “the coldest Winter I ever spent was one Summer in San Francisco.”
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One summer, I was hiking out at Point Reyes National Seashore, outside of San Francisco. You needed a down jacket. I’ve read that Point Reyes has, on average, the coldest summer weather in the lower 48.
 
mbr33ct said:
Is there a better job than a weather forecaster? What other job(s) can one be so wrong most of the times and still keep the job? :rolleyes:
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Political pundit, sports anchor, financial analyst, Congressman, FBI agent,newspaper reporter, pyschic,advice columnist,bank robber,lawyer,astrologers to name a few..
 
I've moved around over the years and have lived in various climates:

Four seasons and pretty long, cold winters - New Jersey, Connecticut, Germany

Four seasons, but shorter winter and longer summer - North Carolina, Tennessee

Desert, very hot summer, mild winter but nippy at night - Arizona

Tropical, always hot and humid with wet and dry seasons - Vietnam

Subtropical, long, hot humid summer, very nice from Nov to May, with cool nights and warm days - Florida

I understand, but can't quite internalize, that there are many people who actually prefer winter over summer. For me, shorts and a tee is the best way to dress. I used to think that NC weather was the best arrangement, with four real seasons but winter gets gone about the time you are sick if it. Still do to some degree. I've been in Florida for five years now and although there are many things I am to so fond of, the weather isn't one of them. Except hurricanes.
 
and one said:
I understand, but can't quite internalize, that there are many people who actually prefer winter over summer. For me, shorts and a tee is the best way to dress. I used to think that NC weather was the best arrangement, with four real seasons but winter gets gone about the time you are sick if it. Still do to some degree. I've been in Florida for five years now and although there are many things I am to so fond of, the weather isn't one of them. Except hurricanes.
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Yeah I was that way too until I moved here... :cool: :cool:
1597515696803.png
 
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ClifSpliffy said:
which farmers almanac, the one that wings it, or the one that spitballs it? either way, both are aboot as useful as a trap door on a canoe. let's take a look-see what those in the know think:

Climate Prediction Center - Official Long-Lead Forecasts

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
looks like it's gonna be hotter than a goats butt in a pepper field.
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Their track record in the past has not been good at all. Slightly better than tossing a coin, but not that much.
 
Ex Nutmegger said:
But what is interesting is that it can actually be warmer at noon here on New Years Day than it is at noon on 4th of July. In July and early August we get a thick layer of sea fog (euphemistically called a “marine layer“) that is drawn in many nights and then usually “burns off”(another euphemism) between 9AM and noon. In a few cases it doesn’t burn off all day; and on those summer days we might never break 60.
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I drove the CA Coast from SLO all the way up to Oregon one summer. A local somewhere along the way told me "it's never cold here,but sometimes it's very fresh." I drove straight thru from Sequoia NP, thru the Central Valley to SLO. My car's temperature gauge spiked at 107, a few hours later when I hit the Pacific it had dropped 50 degrees! I was never so happy in my life to feel chilled.

Another local told me the hotter it is inland, the foggier it is on the Coast. I definitely experienced some thick fog several days during that trip.
 
stamfordhusky said:
Their track record in the past has not been good at all. Slightly better than tossing a coin, but not that much.
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i disagree. 90% noaa inspired, and found in these pages 9/7/19:

'august 31, 10:20 am, last Saturday morning, I wrote :
'Dorian will move to 26.1N 74.0W this afternoon, 26.5N 75.8W Sun
morning, 26.7N 77.2W Sun afternoon, 26.9N 78.1W Mon morning, and
27.5N 79.4W Tue morning. Dorian will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 29.5N 80.5W early Wed, and continue northward to
near 32.0N 80.5W Thu. Dorian will move slowly across the northern
Bahamas toward Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane
through Mon night, then move N along the Florida E coast Tue and
Wed. Ridge remains in place across the central and eastern portion
of the basin.'
where does it hang a looey? will it hang a looey? idk, but atlantic water temps are kinda sloppy right now. a coastal creeper? it's below freezing in parts of the rockies today, so here's hoping dorian gets chased outta here. goofy or otherwise, 'canes can't shred.'
that's what I said, that's what ultimately happened. '

yeppers, that's what happened, and you could look it up. thanks noaa.
on the udder hand, and amazingly so, not a single source anywhere on the planet (including our governor who, on tuesday afternoon of that trickster said 'no need to declare a disaster') forecast the devastation from that storm (btw 'isaias'-worst naming decision, ever. lol). hey, i tried to post a thread days before it to echo my uneasiness, but was thwarted due to technical issues. again, based upon a different view of noaa's data. if almost everyone missed the call, then i believe that no one can truly be blamed. stuff happens. even if your getting governor-level intel.
 
j66kicker said:
Yeah I was that way too until I moved here... :cool: :cool:
View attachment 57736
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In 1975 my wife and I moved to Scottsdale from Charlotte in mid-July. We were in a VW station wagon and were accompanied by a friend in an old telephone company panel truck that towed a homemade trailer. We went via I-40 and at Flagstaff headed south toward Phoenix. Neither vehicle had A/C. About 50 miles north of Phoenix, which is about where you get out of the higher elevations and onto the desert floor, our friend in the truck suddenly pulled over and popped the hood. I pulled up behind him, got out and asked what was wrong. He said he thought he had an engine fire. No fire and it dawned on us that it was the air that was on fire. A few miles further we stopped at a store for drinks and their thermometer said 116 F. This was at 8PM. My wife and I seriously wondered just what in heck we had gotten ourselves into. Turns out this was the hottest day of the year we were there.

Later when we'd tell people how hot it was in Phoenix during the summer, and they'd say, yeah but it's dry heat I say, tell you what, turn on your oven, crawl in and tell me how much you like dry heat!
 
I love my Vegas Winters, if I want to play in the snow (hardly ever), I drive for twenty minutes Northeast of me and have fun at Mt Charleston. The Summer's are hot, but I'll take the 3 months of 100+ degrees versus the cold and the snow. After living in Indiana for 20+ years, stationed in Michigan, Germany, Korea, and the Netherlands, I DON'T like Winter or the humid Summers.
 
and one said:
I understand, but can't quite internalize, that there are many people who actually prefer winter over summer.
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Some of us have acquired more layers of insulation than others.
 
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veryolddog said:
Just got the extended weather report from gas company that pumps Natural Gas from the wells on my property. They say that weather predictions especially the Farmer's Almanac call for a cold snowy winter for the Northeast. They asked me if it was ok to ramp up production for the winter months. Like I really know the answer to that question. So I asked a question. More money? The answer they gave was: Yes. I responded: sure. :) :cool:

I guess that I have the responsibility of making sure that the nice folks of the Northeast are nice and warm for the winter. I hope that this will help the UConn women have an undefeated season.
Expand ...

Farmer's Almanac??? it has about the same prediction accuracy as flipping a coin.
 
MSGRET said:
I love my Vegas Winters, if I want to play in the snow (hardly ever), I drive for twenty minutes Northeast of me and have fun at Mt Charleston. The Summer's are hot, but I'll take the 3 months of 100+ degrees versus the cold and the snow. After living in Indiana for 20+ years, stationed in Michigan, Germany, Korea, and the Netherlands, I DON'T like Winter or the humid Summers.
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Amen to that brother...
 
stamfordhusky said:
Their track record in the past has not been good at all. Slightly better than tossing a coin, but not that much.
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The European Forecast Modeling capabilities are generally considered superior to the North American system. :oops::oops::oops:

www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com

European vs. American Weather Models: What’s the Difference?

Many of us see weather forecasts and hear the terms “European models” and “American models” within them. But do we know what the difference is between these models and what they both mean?...
www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com
 
The coldest I have ever been in my life was North Carolina in January. We were training about three miles from the ocean and the wind went through long johns, utility's, a green wool shirt, and a field jacket like a spoon through jello. Right now I'm looking at the news that shows fires in California and high winds and floods in the mid-west where they are predicting billions of dollars in crop losses. A heavy snowfall to me means more water for the rivers and my well. Yep, we turn the heat up in the winter but I think that overall Ct. has great weather. And for those who are going to immediately react by bringing up Isiasas, I was out of power for four days. The last time was Storm Sandy several years ago. Many people in the mid west are going to be out for the next two weeks.
 
Yep, it is warm in Arizona. Dry Heat. I cook my Thanksgiving Turkey in a dry heat.

Actually, I'm down in Tucson. A little cooler than Phoenix, we did have a couple of 111 days, but we are running between 102 and `108 in this unseasonable warm spell. Normal high is 97ish.

Worse, no monsoon. Over half our annual rain falls during monsoon season. Nothing to speak of yet.
 
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