OT: Patriots -3

[Huskybass]

That line just seems so small to me. The fact that Brady has been there so many times and its Ryan's first time makes me feel good about the Patriots' chances.

Is Atlanta really that strong ?

 

[tjc1888]

They scored the 7th most points in a season........in the history of football.

 

[Huskybass]

They scored the 7th most points in a season...in the history of football.

But they still lost 5 games.

 

[Kemba'sYogurt]

That line just seems so small to me. The fact that Brady has been there so many times and its Ryan's first time makes me feel good about the Patriots' chances.

Is Atlanta really that strong ?

Atlanta at most points in the season has been up by 20 points or more for much of the game, so a lot of people don't know how they'll do in crunch time against the patriots. I guess the odds makers are just taking what they've seen. Jus my opinion

 

[fatlucy]

Tough to score when you don't have the ball.

 

[whaler11]

That line just seems so small to me. The fact that Brady has been there so many times and its Ryan's first time makes me feel good about the Patriots' chances.

Is Atlanta really that strong ?

Well the line hasn't budged so that should tell you something.

 

[Mots010]

On paper this game should be a shootout, so it will probably end up 13-10.

 

[HooperScooper]

7 times the team that scored the most points in the regular season was in the Super Bowl. The record of those teams? 1-6.

 

[mauconnfan]

Tough to score when you don't have the ball.

You think the Falcons will hold the ball that long and sustain drives?

 

[boba]

Well the line hasn't budged so that should tell you something.

That the money is going to both sides, because Vegas doesn't like to lose.
The other part is the prop bets. A Odds Maker was on the local radio yesterday and stated that money is 65 - 35 on the Patriots and that he expects it to stay that way. He said they are not moving the line because they have not seen enough sharp money move it one way or the other. He is also expecting to make lots of money on the prop bets, so they are not worried about the actual game outcome. But he also stated they would love a Falcons 17-10 win as they would absolutely kill.
Oh and bet the coin toss prop - heads. The Patriots are the visitor, they get to call the coin toss, and they always call heads. Why this is not more widely known is odd.

 

[jleves]

Oh and bet the coin toss prop - heads. The Patriots are the visitor, they get to call the coin toss, and they always call heads. Why this is not more widely known is odd.

And what part of your stats class failed to inform you that they are just as likely to lose the call than win? Unless you mean the coin toss call....

Edit: I can't imagine Vegas would put a line on the call when the caller is known and can tell his family/friends/whoever to bet on heads.

So back to the original idea, doesn't matter what they call, the odds remain 50/50. Putting money on a coin flip is not a good gambling move.

 

[tentoes4rings]

7 times the team that scored the most points in the regular season was in the Super Bowl. The record of those teams? 1-6.

50 times, the team that scored the most points in The Super Bowl Won The Super Bowl.

 

[RayIsTheGOAT]

This feels all too much like another situation of a flashy, high flying NFC team coming in against a team that's much more experienced and well-coached.
I never trust the Falcons in the playoffs, especially going up against the Patriots, in the biggest stage when Brady is on an absolute mission. Also, give me Belichick all day over Dan Quinn. Obviously.
Definitely taking the Pats to cover.

 

[StoweD210]

50 times, the team that scored the most points in The Super Bowl Won The Super Bowl.

Nothing personal, but I'm going to need to see a link to back up this claim. Seems dubious.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Only bet I'd touch is the over/under and I'd bet over.

 

[HooperScooper]

50 times, the team that scored the most points in The Super Bowl Won The Super Bowl.

50 times the team that scored the least amount of points in the Super Bowl lost. Still can't believe that stat.

 

[methodology]

Believe I heard a stat that Atlanta has 7 of the top 20 fastest sack times from snap to sack. That could cause issues for Brady and the Patriots as its their MO to get the ball out quickly.

Vegas already said they will win money on their futures bets regardless who wins.

 

[mauconnfan]

It's all about the numbers boys, nothing else matters. And with most of mine I'm rooting for a missed extra point LOL

 

[August_West]

Falcons 52-10

 

[polycom]

That the money is going to both sides, because Vegas doesn't like to lose.
The other part is the prop bets. A Odds Maker was on the local radio yesterday and stated that money is 65 - 35 on the Patriots and that he expects it to stay that way. He said they are not moving the line because they have not seen enough sharp money move it one way or the other. He is also expecting to make lots of money on the prop bets, so they are not worried about the actual game outcome. But he also stated they would love a Falcons 17-10 win as they would absolutely kill.
Oh and bet the coin toss prop - heads. The Patriots are the visitor, they get to call the coin toss, and they always call heads. Why this is not more widely known is odd.

If this is your betting logic please let me know everything you bet on so I can fade your picks.

 

[8893]

Please join me in rooting for the Falcons this weekend as a show of support for all the fallen heroes at Bowling Green.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Believe I heard a stat that Atlanta has 7 of the top 20 fastest sack times from snap to sack. That could cause issues for Brady and the Patriots as its their MO to get the ball out quickly.

Vegas already said they will win money on their futures bets regardless who wins.

Good pass rush, but Houston has a better one and a much better defense, best in the league. New England just put up 34 on them. Atlanta has a terrible run defense, but it hasn't hurt them because they jump out to a lead and the opponent abandons the running game. Belichick is going to run the ball on them, and that is going to disrupt the pass rush and allow Brady to pick them apart. Atlanta's offense is very good, but it is facing a very good defense for a change.

New England wins a close game. Probably by more than 3.

 

[Husky25]

He said they are not moving the line because they have not seen enough sharp money move it one way or the other...Oh and bet the coin toss prop - heads. The Patriots are the visitor, they get to call the coin toss, and they always call heads. Why this is not more widely known is odd.

Unless the line is completely out of whack, The "Sharps" don't begin placing their wagers until Sunday Morning. They want as much info as possible. The results are mutually exclusive, especially because the first Brady Superbowl was 15 years ago, but each one of the Patriots' last five Big Games have been decided 1) on the last true possession, and 2) by 4 points or less.

The coin toss is paid out on the result, not the call. On the other hand, does Vegas take action on the length of the National Anthem (I know it been on whatever SB prop betting sheet I've ever seen for the lay person, but is it true for Vegas?)? If so, someone in the know with whoever is "singing" can hit the winning side hard and make a relative killing. It's a recording anyway. The result is fixed.

 

[jibsey]

Believe I heard a stat that Atlanta has 7 of the top 20 fastest sack times from snap to sack. That could cause issues for Brady and the Patriots as its their MO to get the ball out quickly.

Vegas already said they will win money on their futures bets regardless who wins.

This stat is the whole thing for Atlanta because as good as Brady is he hasn't really been pressured.

 

[Deepster]

Good pass rush, but Houston has a better one and a much better defense, best in the league. New England just put up 34 on them. Atlanta has a terrible run defense, but it hasn't hurt them because they jump out to a lead and the opponent abandons the running game. Belichick is going to run the ball on them, and that is going to disrupt the pass rush and allow Brady to pick them apart. Atlanta's offense is very good, but it is facing a very good defense for a change.

New England wins a close game. Probably by more than 3.

I think New England wins...but saying Atlanta's offense is "very good" is a little soft. They scored the 7th most pts in the history of the NFL. And the Houston game was a home game with Brock Osweiler on the other side of the ball. Just sayin'.