@caw: I meant foolish for the Knicks. It is an entirely different calculus for Houston with different numbers and different assumptions. First, it only costs them the $8.3M average against their cap in the third year, versus the actual $14.98M charge that the Knicks would get against their cap. And if Houston stays under the cap, it costs them even less--in that scenario Lin's third year would cost Houston some $40M less than it would cost the Knicks.
Well, that I agree, it is foolish for the Knicks, though moreso due to other contracts on the books there.
Really, it's all about perspective. For the Knicks, they have too many bad contracts (does this ever change for them?).
A three year contract really isn't that bad, the problem is the Knicks just have some incredibly bloated contracts right now:
Amare: 20, 21.5, 23.4
Melo: 19.5, 21.5, 23.5 (Player Option)
Chandler: 13.6, 14.1, 14.6
That's freaking 53.1, 57.1, 61.5 for 3 freaking players. That is much more of an issue than Lin's contract. Lin may not be worth 15.5 for one year (though the first two are cheap), but Melo and Amare sure as hell aren't worth a combined 40 million.
I know that Lin may not be worth 8 per year, but it's not that outrageous, and you can't blame the balloon/tax cost of his contract on him. The Knicks signed 3 players to the equivalent of the entire cap and only 9 million under the luxury tax threshold. That's just silly.
Kidd: 3, 3, 3
Felton: 3, 3, 3 (average at least)
Shumpert: 1.7, 1.8, 2.8
Novak: 3.8, 3.8, 3.8 (average at least)
Smith: 2.8, 2.8
Camby: 4.4, 4.4, 4.4 (average at least)
That's an additional 18.7, 18.8, 17. So they will be at the luxury tax for those 9 players next year, about 5 million over in year 2 and 8 million over in year 3.
So the Knicks will be taxed at least 7.5 in year 2 and 12.75 in year 3. Considering they will be over for 2013, 2014, 2015, they are likely going to be in the "repeat offender base". That will push year 3 to about 20.75 without Lin and with Felton.
If they didn't sign Felton and signed Lin, they would be paying almost 67 million in tax alone in year three (if they are a "repeat offender"). If they aren't a "repeat offender" then it comes out to about 46 in tax in year 3.
Even under the "old" contract of 4 years at 30 million Lin would have added 7.5 in year 3. This would equate to either 35 or 22.5 million in tax (considering Felton not joining the Knicks). Of course that is based off salary for 8 players. So they would need to sign another 5 players.
So in the end the difference between Lin's first contract and second would be about 20-30 million in tax.
Of course, you then add on the salaries of 5 additional players and this gets even larger.
I don't see how this is on Lin though. Melo/Amare are the bigger issues (in terms of silly contracts).