OT: Melo is sooo dumb

[8893]

Fixed it for you.

No, I was talking about more than just Melo. With that contract, in New York, there would be some pretty high expectations, both within the organization and from the media and fans. I don't think it's a stretch to say that there were some serious and legitimate doubts about whether he could live up to them, and I'm sure he had his own doubts about that as well.

Melo is a favorite whipping boy, deservedly so for the most part. But the attempts to lay all this at his feet is narrow-minded imo; and it ignores the fact that he is the one responsible for urging the Knicks to give Lin a shot in the first place.

 

[caw]

I don't think this is accurate. By all reports, the Knicks were going to match the deal until Lin and Houston conspired to re-do it for terms that made the third year so foolish that even the Knicks realized it was a bad deal. Just because they are an organization that has been defined by bad deals in the past decade, that doesn't mean they should keep repeating them. No matter how Melo feels about it, that is a terrible deal to match imo, and a recipe for disaster given the microscope Lin would be under if the Knicks did match it.

The Knicks themselves may well be the poster boy for "recipe for disaster," but in this situation--however it came about--I think they are doing the right thing. Simply put, there is no way that Lin could be worth it, once you figure in the luxury tax hit.

I don't agree that the third year is foolish at all for the Rockets. Lin may or may not be worth that much money, but if they are under the tax threshold, it is a solid move to have Lin at 8 per for the next 3 years. They don't have anyone they will need to resigned that will require a large contract for a few years.

The Rockets have (assuming no Dwight trade):
Lin - 5, 5, 15.5

Young players on rookie contracts:
Patterson - 2, 3, QO
Morris - 2, 2, 3, QO
Parsons - <1, <1, <1, QO
Lamb - 1.7, 1.8, 1.8, 2.5, QO
Jones - 1.5, 1.6, 1.7, 2.5, QO
White - 1.4, 1.4, 1.5, 2.3, QO
Montiejunas - 1, 1, 1, 1, QO

Total: 10.6, 11.8, 10+Patterson QO, 8.3 + Patterson + Morris QO + Parson QO.

Scrubs:
Douglas - 2, QO
Livingston - Team option 3.5, FA
Forbes - 1.5, FA
Brockman - 1, FA
Harrellson - <1, FA
Jordan - <1, FA
Leuer - <1, QO
Smith - <1, FA

Veterans:
Scola - Amnestied
Lee - UFA (not likely to be on team next year), rescinded QO
Martin - 12.3, FA

I can't imagine they will resign Martin (I expect they will trade him this year or let him walk). On the off chance they do resign him, it won't be for near 12.3 million (unless they are idiots). The scrubs will likely never warrant over 2 million per year individually and I imagine quite a few will be let go either this year or next and replaced with other scrubs/FA's or rookies.

That leaves the rookie scale players. Only Patterson is due to be a FA before Lin's contract is up. I doubt he is a max player, or even close to one.

That makes the total salary of non-scrubs 27.9, 16.8, 25.5 (no Patterson)

That's a minimum of 32 million to sign 6 players in Year 3 (assuming the cap stays the same). That's enough for one max player at least (at 17 per in Year 2 or Year 3) and still leaves 15 to sign 5 additional players. That 15.5 really has no negative effect on Houston, unless you think they could get two max players.

In year two/three they have:
PG: Lin, FA or Draft pick
SG: Lamb, FA or Draft pick
SF: Parsons, Jones
PF: Montiejunas, Morris
C: Max contract (Bynum/Howard?), White

Not a bad team at all, but of course predicated on being able to get either Bynum or Howard as their max player.

 

[8893]

@caw: I meant foolish for the Knicks. It is an entirely different calculus for Houston with different numbers and different assumptions. First, it only costs them the $8.3M average against their cap in the third year, versus the actual $14.98M charge that the Knicks would get against their cap. And if Houston stays under the cap, it costs them even less--in that scenario Lin's third year would cost Houston some $40M less than it would cost the Knicks.

 

[sparky]

Am I missing something? I never looked at melo as a brainiac. He is a selfish basketball player. And who said the knicks were smart? Dolan is a idiot and Lin made a business decision for himself, and a damn good one.

 

[visitor123]

@caw: I meant foolish for the Knicks. It is an entirely different calculus for Houston with different numbers and different assumptions. First, it only costs them the $8.3M average against their cap in the third year, versus the actual $14.98M charge that the Knicks would get against their cap. And if Houston stays under the cap, it costs them even less--in that scenario Lin's third year would cost Houston some $40M less than it would cost the Knicks.

It's definitely foolish for the Knicks to match, and it could actually cost up to 64 million in taxes for the Knicks in the 3rd year. $4.25 on the $1 for repeat offenders (teams that have been in the luxury tax 4 out of last 5 years, and it seems the Knicks are in the luxury tax every year). However I don't buy that Lin went back to Houston to 'rework' his deal. Lin got what he was worth, what the Rockets were willing to pay. Implying that he somehow leveraged the Knicks' word into more money sounds to me like an attempt by the NY media to scapegoat Lin and absolve the Knicks of mismanaging the situation.

The idea that the Rockets only offered more because they got information from Lin about the Knicks' matching just doesn't make any sense logically. The Knicks have been broadcasting that they'll match any offer since the end of the summer. Why would the Rockets need Lin to go to the Knicks and ask them if they'll match?

If Lin did go to the Knicks and inform them he already signed an undelivered offer why would the Knicks inform Lin of their intentions? Either a) they never wanted to match and said that just to drive up the price to make the Rockets pay more or b) they are extremely bad at doing business (it would be the equivalent of Homer Simpson going to a car dealership and telling the car salesman he would pay up to $10,000 for a car marked at $8,000). The only other scenario is c) the Knicks were hoping to scare the Rockets off from making the offer at all and thus driving down Lin's price. In which case the Knicks were burned while conducting themselves just as unethically as Lin is being portrayed by the NY media in trying to manipulate the situation. I could argue that's why they have been broadcasting that they'll 'match anything up to $1 Billion'.

"Houston made an offer for four years, with three guaranteed at $19.8M, approximately $9M of which was to be paid in the third year.
The Knicks said that they would match that offer.
Before the Knicks were presented with that offer, Lin flew to Las Vegas to meet with Houston and re-do the offer for a higher guarantee in the third year, essentially tripling the cost to the Knicks. "

The first offer is pure speculation. Is there an actual copy of the offer sheet signed by Lin that wasn't presented to the Knicks? Of course not, it's just a report from 'sources'. From the start there was speculation that the Rockets could offer up to 4 years/40 million. Then came the report that Lin had agreed to a deal with the Rockets just before the moratorium ended, after that came the speculation that it was 3 years 20 million and everyone just ran with that. There was never any actual proof Lin agreed to this deal.

Just as a sidebar. Dragic got 8.5 million with the Suns, Fields got 6.5 million with the Raptors. Houston just lost Lowry & Dragic, they have no point guard, they need Lin. You think they were confident with a 6.5 million offer to Lin to not be matched? Then somehow despite the Knicks publicly stating they would match anything, the Knicks were able to state something to Lin privately passed onto Houston that made them change their mind and suddenly believe the Knicks will match but won't match if they added 6 million?

 

[WestCoastHusky]

There's nothing wrong with the structure of the deal. It's a rule that helps the Knicks match, otherwise they'd lose Lin like Arenas & Boozer.

Carmelo was calling out the idea of Lin getting paid 15 million in a year, but from Lin's perspective it's no different than getting 8 million a year. I don't think 8 million a year is too much considering Fields got 7 million a year minus the potential commercial appeal.

$8M per year is what Lin will get and that's basically market value for him. The backup PG for Houston that went to Phoenix got around the same amount so Lin is worth every penny of that. Houston is smart so they did what they had to do to get rid of the Knicks in the bidding. It looks like Lin will be going to Houston to get a fresh start. Perhaps Houston will let him free wheeling like he did earlier with Mike D'Antonio so he can play like his former self. In NYC, he has to keep feeding the ball to Melo so it might not be ideal for him.

Anyway, it looks like Knicks got out maneuvered yet again.

 

[Waquoit]

yep playing with the scrubs they have in Houston would be a better option, what can you say Melo is as evil as Adolf Hitler

You aren't aware of the rules of internet debate are you? First person who says Hitler, loses.

Linsanity died when Melo came back, not when Lin got hurt. Melo's demands neutralized Lin's strengths. Why would that change next year? Why would Lin want to deal with that for the next 3 or 4 years? Much better to start fresh.

 

[caw]

@caw: I meant foolish for the Knicks. It is an entirely different calculus for Houston with different numbers and different assumptions. First, it only costs them the $8.3M average against their cap in the third year, versus the actual $14.98M charge that the Knicks would get against their cap. And if Houston stays under the cap, it costs them even less--in that scenario Lin's third year would cost Houston some $40M less than it would cost the Knicks.

Well, that I agree, it is foolish for the Knicks, though moreso due to other contracts on the books there.

Really, it's all about perspective. For the Knicks, they have too many bad contracts (does this ever change for them?).

A three year contract really isn't that bad, the problem is the Knicks just have some incredibly bloated contracts right now:

Amare: 20, 21.5, 23.4
Melo: 19.5, 21.5, 23.5 (Player Option)
Chandler: 13.6, 14.1, 14.6

That's freaking 53.1, 57.1, 61.5 for 3 freaking players. That is much more of an issue than Lin's contract. Lin may not be worth 15.5 for one year (though the first two are cheap), but Melo and Amare sure as hell aren't worth a combined 40 million.

I know that Lin may not be worth 8 per year, but it's not that outrageous, and you can't blame the balloon/tax cost of his contract on him. The Knicks signed 3 players to the equivalent of the entire cap and only 9 million under the luxury tax threshold. That's just silly.

Kidd: 3, 3, 3
Felton: 3, 3, 3 (average at least)
Shumpert: 1.7, 1.8, 2.8
Novak: 3.8, 3.8, 3.8 (average at least)
Smith: 2.8, 2.8
Camby: 4.4, 4.4, 4.4 (average at least)

That's an additional 18.7, 18.8, 17. So they will be at the luxury tax for those 9 players next year, about 5 million over in year 2 and 8 million over in year 3.

So the Knicks will be taxed at least 7.5 in year 2 and 12.75 in year 3. Considering they will be over for 2013, 2014, 2015, they are likely going to be in the "repeat offender base". That will push year 3 to about 20.75 without Lin and with Felton.

If they didn't sign Felton and signed Lin, they would be paying almost 67 million in tax alone in year three (if they are a "repeat offender"). If they aren't a "repeat offender" then it comes out to about 46 in tax in year 3.

Even under the "old" contract of 4 years at 30 million Lin would have added 7.5 in year 3. This would equate to either 35 or 22.5 million in tax (considering Felton not joining the Knicks). Of course that is based off salary for 8 players. So they would need to sign another 5 players.

So in the end the difference between Lin's first contract and second would be about 20-30 million in tax.

Of course, you then add on the salaries of 5 additional players and this gets even larger.

I don't see how this is on Lin though. Melo/Amare are the bigger issues (in terms of silly contracts).

 

[visitor123]

$8M per year is what Lin will get and that's basically market value for him. The backup PG for Houston that went to Phoenix got around the same amount so Lin is worth every penny of that. Houston is smart so they did what they had to do to get rid of the Knicks in the bidding. It looks like Lin will be going to Houston to get a fresh start. Perhaps Houston will let him free wheeling like he did earlier with Mike D'Antonio so he can play like his former self. In NYC, he has to keep feeding the ball to Melo so it might not be ideal for him.

Anyway, it looks like Knicks got out maneuvered yet again.

I totally agree with you. Lin's market value should be every bit as high as Dragic and Dragic got 4 years. Dragic also only had a short stretch of 30 games where he was able to perform as a starting caliber PG. Plus he doesn't have the vast commercial appeal of Lin.

I was just saying Carmelo is nearsighted is can only see that Lin will be making 15 million in the 3rd year for the Knicks and therefore is upset that Lin is a '$15 million' player, even though really he's just getting 8.

 

[Huskies4ever]

Calls Lin's contract ridiculous.

Granted he's right, and yes Lin will probably end up in Houston, but that probably isn't the best thing to say about someone who could still potentially be your teammate.

Not just this, but how about taking the higher road, and thanking the guy for his spectacular play in righting the ship, and congratulating him on a big contract? Obviously, Melo doesn't know about class. Lin's certainly earned more money. Who in the NBA isn't overpaid? Certainly not Melo.
Melo's supposed to be representing our country. Maybe Coach K can speak for him throughout the Olympics. Sorry for the rant. I just get sick of these overprivileged prima-donnas running their mouths. Shut up and play basketball.

 

[8893]

The first offer is pure speculation. Is there an actual copy of the offer sheet signed by Lin that wasn't presented to the Knicks? Of course not, it's just a report from 'sources'. From the start there was speculation that the Rockets could offer up to 4 years/40 million. Then came the report that Lin had agreed to a deal with the Rockets just before the moratorium ended, after that came the speculation that it was 3 years 20 million and everyone just ran with that. There was never any actual proof Lin agreed to this deal.

Just as a sidebar. Dragic got 8.5 million with the Suns, Fields got 6.5 million with the Raptors. Houston just lost Lowry & Dragic, they have no point guard, they need Lin. You think they were confident with a 6.5 million offer to Lin to not be matched? Then somehow despite the Knicks publicly stating they would match anything, the Knicks were able to state something to Lin privately passed onto Houston that made them change their mind and suddenly believe the Knicks will match but won't match if they added 6 million?

Well if there was no first offer and if Lin did not fly to Las Vegas to re-do it, this is the first I've heard of anyone who questions those facts.

 

[visitor123]

Well, that I agree, it is foolish for the Knicks, though moreso due to other contracts on the books there.

Really, it's all about perspective. For the Knicks, they have too many bad contracts (does this ever change for them?).

Amare: 20, 21.5, 23.4
Melo: 19.5, 21.5, 23.5 (Player Option)
Chandler: 13.6, 14.1, 14.6

If they Knicks really believed in Lin, or if Carmelo really wanted Lin back, they could match. If it works out, OK you pay a ton of taxes, but at least you are a contender in the east. You're already paying a ton of taxes for a lottery team for many years.

If it doesn't work out. You can easily move Chandler in year 3, he's valuable even with his contract. Signing Camby also helps with that. Melo is a max player no matter what and he might opt out anyway to sign a final 5 year extension. Unlikely as it is, if you wanted to move him you can. Amare will be expiring and could be perfect fodder for a rebuilding team way under the cap wanting to find a star/face of the franchise/excitement for 1 year. The point is, the Knicks can pull themselves out of the luxury tax hell in year 3 if they want to blow it up. They probably honestly think Felton will be as good or close and probably will not impact negatively on Carmelo's happiness.

 

[visitor123]

Well if there was no first offer and if Lin did not fly to Las Vegas to re-do it, this is the first I've heard of anyone who questions those facts.

The scenario just has too many holes for me. For it to be true, Houston had to have believed initially that their 3 year 20 million contract was good enough to not be matched. That can't be true. If anything, the deal wasn't done, it was prematurely reported. Lin could have flown to Vegas to finish up the deal. Or perhaps Dragic leaving impacted on Houston's desperation, where at first they didn't care if the Knicks matched, then changed their mind and wanted the Knicks to be priced out. I just don't believe that Lin somehow went to the Knicks and then went behind their backs using some secret info he got from the Knicks.

I think it's telling that when he was thought to be a Knick all the inside sources and reports were about how they'll match anything. Now that it looks like the Knicks won't match all the reports are about how he went behind their back, how he's screwed the Knicks, how he quit on them in the playoffs and didn't want to play through pain. It's pretty transparent to me.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I totally agree with you. Lin's market value should be every bit as high as Dragic and Dragic got 4 years. Dragic also only had a short stretch of 30 games where he was able to perform as a starting caliber PG. Plus he doesn't have the vast commercial appeal of Lin.

I was just saying Carmelo is nearsighted is can only see that Lin will be making 15 million in the 3rd year for the Knicks and therefore is upset that Lin is a '$15 million' player, even though really he's just getting 8.

Carmelo needs to go take some math classes because he obviously has no financial sense. From Lin's perspective, he is getting $8M per year and that's less than what Dragic got from Phoenix for 4 years at $8.5M per year. Lin's upside and his marketing appeal is way greater than Dragic. To me, I think Houston got a bargain comparing to Phoenix. That's pretty much the much value for a decent starting PG. If Lin is really able to excel, he will get paid big time in 3 years which is also smart on his behalf.

Either way, Houston really wants him and it looks like he will end up in Houston. For the Knicks, I just hope all those bloated egos will keep the team together. I just don't see Melo as the kind of player that can deliver like Kobe. I doubt Felton will get them over the hump either.

 

[willinphilly]

Melo is a favorite whipping boy, deservedly so for the most part. But the attempts to lay all this at his feet is narrow-minded imo; and it ignores the fact that he is the one responsible for urging the Knicks to give Lin a shot in the first place.[/quote]

No, that's not true at all. Even Melo backtracked from that statement when he was asked directly about giving Lin a shot. There is no question that Melo is incredibly talented. But he's a petty, jealous, stupid person much like James Dolan. Even if Lin was making $2mm/yr, he'd would still have a problem with Lin since Lin gets more attention and the lion's share of the post-game interviews -- things Lin do not have an interest in. JR Smith is a retard as well. I'd be much more interested in hearing what Chandler has to say about the situation.

As for the betrayal? The Knicks did not offer him a contract; they verbally indicated they would match Houston's offer and told everyone in the world they would do so. Lin receives a better offer from Houston (signs it - you'd be crazy not to sign it) and then Dolan goes nuts. Letting Lin go for nothing is really dumb, a pure emotional decision. Blaming Lin for luxury taxes is also stupid. You pay a guy with an uninsurable contract max dollars who has no knees...ugh...whatever, Dolan is so dumb.

 

[businesslawyer]

By all reports, the first offer sheet was signed. It was binding on Lin and the Rockets if the Knicks did not match it. Also by all reports, the Knicks told Lin that they would match the offer and that they were simply waiting to be presented with it. Lin then went and shared that information with the Rockets, and the two of them conspired to re-do the offer as it is now before presenting it to the Knicks. In other words, the Knicks never had a chance to match the first offer because it was never -presented to them.

Please let me know if you are aware of any facts that contradict any of that. I have not seen any source, any where, suggest that the Rockets somehow took the first offer off the table, or that they were even able to do so without Lin's agreement to re-do it. Where are you getting that?

That's not my understanding. When Lin and Houston reached their first agreement, they couldn't have signed a term sheet. The terms leaked out and the Knicks said they would match. Houston then revised the terms.

That is my understanding, but if that's incorrect -- if the first term sheet was ever signed -- the analysis would be different. that having been said, if the first term sheet was ever signed my understanding of the rules is the Knicks could have matched it and Houston didn't get a second bite of the apple.

 

[8893]

Where does this "letting Lin go for nothing" concept come in? I don't get it. They had no contract rights to him. They made a calculated decision to let the market set his price. It may have been the wrong decision strategically, but I don't see how they "let him go for nothing." If they offered him $25 million out of the gates as many here suggest they should have done, I'm sure those same people would be saying that the Knicks were fools for overpaying an unknown quantity.

Sure, they already have a lot of bad contracts and are still suffering the effects of a decade of doling them out, but they can't change Melo's or Amar'e's deals now. They can control what they spend going forward. However it came about, I'm glad that they didn't match the Lin offer. I didn't see that working out here at the end of the day.

 

[NHUConnfan]

Where's JyNcYe (or however you spell it)? I thought the Knicks were going to dominate.

 

[ZenConn]

The Knicks will just need to get Nene and Kmart so they can rename their team to the NY Nuggets.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

That's not my understanding. When Lin and Houston reached their first agreement, they couldn't have signed a term sheet. The terms leaked out and the Knicks said they would match. Houston then revised the terms.

That is my understanding, but if that's incorrect -- if the first term sheet was ever signed -- the analysis would be different. that having been said, if the first term sheet was ever signed my understanding of the rules is the Knicks could have matched it and Houston didn't get a second bite of the apple.

Knicks going to match Lin's offer is public knowledge. Lin really has no saying in this other than agreeing to Houston's deal. He has to agree to that to give Knicks' a chance to match. Either way, the whole thing is almost out of Lin's control. Houston wants Lin and they know exactly how much it will take to hurt Knicks to discourage them from matching. Houston did the right thing by making the deal harder to match. At end of the day, they want their guy and it looks like they will get him.

 

[8893]

Uh oh. Francesa has the same exact take as I do. I don't know if this has ever happened before. Perhaps I am wrong about this after all.

 

[businesslawyer]

Where does this "letting Lin go for nothing" concept come in? I don't get it. They had no contract rights to him. They made a calculated decision to let the market set his price. It may have been the wrong decision strategically, but I don't see how they "let him go for nothing." If they offered him $25 million out of the gates as many here suggest they should have done, I'm sure those same people would be saying that the Knicks were fools for overpaying an unknown quantity.

Sure, they already have a lot of bad contracts and are still suffering the effects of a decade of doling them out, but they can't change Melo's or Amar'e's deals now. They can control what they spend going forward. However it came about, I'm glad that they didn't match the Lin offer. I didn't see that working out here at the end of the day.

See, that position is perfectly fine. You have a basketball opinion on what will make the team better. But I don't understand why you, or anyone else, needs to turn this around and try to be blaming Lin for not being loyal or having screwed the Knicks. He has done exactly what he should have done. If the Knicks don't think he's good enough to demand that kind of money, man up and say so. But don't whine about how he was disloyal.

 

[8893]

See, that position is perfectly fine. You have a basketball opinion on what will make the team better. But I don't understand why you, or anyone else, needs to turn this around and try to be blaming Lin for not being loyal or having screwed the Knicks. He has done exactly what he should have done. If the Knicks don't think he's good enough to demand that kind of money, man up and say so. But don't whine about how he was disloyal.

I'm not saying that I think he was disloyal; I'm saying that, based on what is being reported, I think Dolan's sense that Lin was disloyal played a part in the decision not to match (um, that is, if they don't match, which they still may, but shouldn't imo). And I can understand how Dolan could feel that way, if it is true--and I haven't heard anyone suggest anything to the contrary--that:

Lin had an offer from the Rockets to which he and the Rockets agreed.

The terms of that offer were accurately reported to the Knicks.

The Knicks told Lin--and everyone who would listen--that they would match that offer, but they were never presented with it.

Lin went back to the Rockets and reworked the deal to make it harder for the Knicks to match, and that's the only deal that has ever been presented to the Knicks.

Whether it was disloyal to the Knicks or screwed them is beside the point imo. He certainly did what he should have done if he was concerned primarily about getting a higher guarantee, and however anyone reads the collateral fallout is up to them. The fact is that he reworked the offer, after being told the Knicks would match it, to make himself more guaranteed money, knowing fully well that the Knicks were less likely to match it. I'm not "blaming" him per se, but if he or anyone else is upset when he doesn't end up with the Knicks, I think it's fair to say that he was a knowing and willing participant in the circumstances that brought about that result. Simply put, if he kept his trap shut and didn't go back to Vegas to re-do the offer, he would be heading to New York. The choice was his, and like most people he went for more guaranteed money. In Houston.

 

[Waquoit]

The choice was his, and like most people he went for more guaranteed money. In Houston.

I don't think it was just about the guarantee money, it was about making tougher for the Knicks to match. Like I said he's a smart guy, he wants no part of that cluster***k in blue and orange.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I don't think it was just about the guarantee money, it was about making tougher for the Knicks to match. Like I said he's a smart guy, he wants no part of that cluster***k in blue and orange.

I agree with you. I think in Houston Lin will get to run his own team and he can go free style like he did when Melo was out. In NYC, he will get Kidd and that Argentinian guard they just signed on his back. Every time he has a bad game, all the media and fans would want to take him off the starting role. In Houston, he will have less pressure to produce every single game. He can really develop there. Also, 3rd year $15M guaranteed vs. $9M third year plus $9M 4th year at team's option is not even comparable from Lin's perspective. You take the $15M 3rd year and go get a bigger deal after that if he is an all star. $25M vs. $20M guaranteed is not comparable. New 3 years deal he signed is much better.