OT: Kentucky Derby Pod | The Boneyard

OT: Kentucky Derby Pod

gwhuskyfan

gwhuskyfan

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Hi all,

Got a quick 5ish minute episode of The Connecticut Scoreboard out this week with CT Native and former Miss CT Acacia Courtney. She now does a lot of work in horse racing -- was a handicapper/analyst at Gulfstream and now doing the same at Saratoga. Figured some people on here might like this one as we get ready for Saturday's race.

 
Waquoit said:
Acacia is a CT treasure.
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The name escape me right now, but if you want to find two TV peeps who know their sports to an absolute ridiculous degree, it’s Acacia and the other woman who works on Saratoga Live...Maggie SomethingorOther
 
Fishy said:
The name escape me right now, but if you want to find two TV peeps who know their sports to an absolute ridiculous degree, it’s Acacia and the other woman who works on Saratoga Live...Maggie SomethingorOther
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WOLFENDALE.

I didn't listen to the podcast, but everyone in Saratoga has creamed their jeans on Tiz the Law all summer. I'd be shocked if that wasn't her pick.
 
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I think the biggest thing that will impact the race is the many jocky's not there. The Ortiz's, Luis Saez and some other usual suspects might impact the race.

Tiz drew the 17th post position and there has never been a winner at 17. Personally I don't like the draw, Tiz is special, but I'm not sure how to bet this race
 
Last edited:
Maggie's the daughter of a trainer and married a trainer so she's been in the game her entire life and knows horses. But the next time she picks my horse and it wins will be the first time.
 
B1GEast said:
I think the biggest thing that will impact the race is the many jocky's not there. The Ortiz's, Luis Saez and some other usual suspects might impact the race.

Tiz drew the 17th post position and there has never been a winner at 17. Personally I like the draw, Tiz is special, but I'm not sure how to bet this race
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Yeah, I think the post position is a real hurdle to overcome.....and it's no fun betting on a horse at that price. More fun rooting against it.
 
Deepster said:
Yeah, I think the post position is a real hurdle to overcome.....and it's no fun betting on a horse at that price. More fun rooting against it.
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I'm rooting for Tiz The Law, New York over KY all day long as far as being a fan. And I had Funny Cide so I like the connections.

I think the post position is actually a plus. That no horse has won yet from the #17 is just a statistical anomaly. Posts 16 and 18 have both won more than their statistical share of Derby's. Tiz The Law will likely be able to escape any traffic trouble out there. Authentic, the horse to Law's outside, will be gunning from the gate. I see a professional horse being able to pick just where he wants to run as they pass the stands for the first time. Then it's just the matter of if he's the best horse on Saturday.
 
They’re using a brand new starting gate - it’s a 20-horse gate instead of the two gates connected together.

Plus, with an 18-horse field, they leave the one and the 20 open, so TIz the Law will break from 18.
 
My post should have read I don't like the 17th. Fixed

The horses that intrigue me are New York Traffic, Authentic. Storm, Honor, Max and Dr Post are not far off.

Some horses I wish would be in the derby. Pneumatic and Silver Prospector

Art collector is a scratch
 
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I just rode my cruiser through Gulfstream on Saturday. You're right up on the track there and especially close to the winner's circle. Fun place. I love me some Gulfstream. The Pegasus statue is a stone's throw away. Interesting bit on how tall it is.
Pegasus and Dragon - Wikipedia
 
I just heard an interview with a top jockey agent. The best jockey agents are some of the best handicappers. He was talking how Tiz the Law is surrounded by top contenders being ridden by HOF jockeys while Law has an excellent young jockey but one who has never felt this level of pressure before. Hearing that got me thinking, these guys just might be racing Law early and not riding their own race. That would compromise their own chances but it's been done. Baffert's won a big race by roughing up the favorite before.
 
Tiz the Law is the class of this field, with a top qualifier speed of 115 - the fastest ever for a Derby horse. He's also the only horse with all 3 qualifier speeds above 100. Horses with 2/3 100+ qualifier speeds are Authentic, Max Player, and Honor AP.

South Bend (50-1 long shot) has Churchill's best jockey on board.
Max Player has the 2nd best venue jockey and the top meet trainer.

I'm automatically scratching the 4, 9, 11, 12, and 14 horses - they will beat each other up for last place.

I'm going to have the most exposure to Max Player. Has good speed, a good jockey, and a good trainer. Also came in 3rd in the Belmont, and with the 1 being scratched, now has the pole position. I'm thinking an exacta with Tiz and maybe a huge bet to show - I don't see how Max comes in outside 3rd place.

I would have loved to see the this race with Art Collector - a tremendous horse that has had a great season - and Irad Ortiz Jr. - currently the world's best jockey, hands down.
 
gwhuskyfan said:
Hi all,

Got a quick 5ish minute episode of The Connecticut Scoreboard out this week with CT Native and former Miss CT Acacia Courtney. She now does a lot of work in horse racing -- was a handicapper/analyst at Gulfstream and now doing the same at Saratoga. Figured some people on here might like this one as we get ready for Saturday's race.

Expand ...

I work on a corporate board with Acacia’s dad. Proud papa.
 
XLCenterFan said:
post position 17 is 0-41 in the Derby...Tiz is there tomorrow
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That no horse has won yet from the #17 is just a statistical anomaly. Posts 16 and 18 have both won more than their statistical share of Derby's.
 
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Waquoit said:
That no horse has won yet from the #17 is just a statistical anomaly. Posts 16 and 18 have both won more than their statistical share of Derby's.
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What are your bets tokorrow?
 
XLCenterFan said:
What are your bets tokorrow?
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I'm rooting for Tiz the Law as a fan but there's hardly a man alive who can pay the rent at 3-5. The main contenders are front runners and since I want Tiz to win I'm going to assume he puts them away and the rest of trifecta gets filled with plodding suck-ups that can make the distance. I'm going with an exacta, tri and super key: 17/ 9,12,14
 
Two scratches today puts Tiz in the 15 hole. Five winners in 58 tries for the 15. Still surrounded by the same two.
 
Waquoit said:
Two scratches today puts Tiz in the 15 hole. Five winners in 58 tries for the 15. Still surrounded by the same two.
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He’s breaking out of 16 and for the 12,000th time, it does not matter.

It is a new gate that has never seen a Derby before. There’s no auxiliary gate anymore so no six-foot gap between 14 and 15.
 
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Basically, unless TIz the Law is a little worn from an already long campaign or Manny Franco finds a way into disaster (possible - watch a replay of the Holy Bull Stakes), he’s the fastest horse in the race by a few lengths. Also, not terribly crazy about the fact that he isn’t exactly seamless when switching leads in the stretch - he tends to serpentine down the stretch.

On his game, this group doesn’t see him. If he isn’t....anyone other than Honor AP would be a surprise. The Baffert horses look to have distance issues, Ny Traffic is going to get some play because of his last race, but he wasn’t going quickly at the end as much as Authentic was just staggering. Money Moves might be worth a play - only three races, but finish second against older horses last time.
 
Tri Boxes
10/16/17 like this one the best
2/17/18
8/16/17 hoping Gafflione pulls out the miracle
10/17/18
 
Deepster said:
Tri Boxes
10/16/17 like this one the best
2/17/18
8/16/17 hoping Gafflione pulls out the miracle
10/17/18
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Never a good omen when your horse does a backflip onto pavement.
 
You can't beat the races, but you can beat a race.

With 5 minutes until post, Tiz The Law was paying more to show ($4.00) than to win ($3.60). This is figuring the Show price with the top 3 favorites finishing 1-2-3. I knew the smart money would land on this in the closing minutes, but it still looked like a unusually rich SHOW value. Landed on it myself and even convinced the wife to dip into the milk money. As it tuned out Tiz The Law, a $3.60 WIN favorite, paid $3.40 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW. You gotta feel for the folks who bet several million on him to win -- and were still betting on him to win in the final minute with the totes staring them in the face.

Pardon the crowing. Don't often get the chance..
 
My lament. My brother loves Johnny V. So about 10 minutes before post I see he’s in the race and I had $25 in my account so I without thinking I bet #18 $15 to win and $5 to place and show. Then I screwed up buy calling him if wanted to split. Of course he said yes. Cost me $70.
 
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