OT - Is MWC football falling behind the Group of 5? Fixing the MW bowl lineup is an uphill battle.

[huskymedic]

The Denver Post: Is Mountain West football falling behind the Group of 5? Fixing the MW bowl lineup is an uphill battle

 

[uconnphil2016]

We should seriously try to poach Boise St. Getting them would be awesome for football, and maybe bring in BYU as well. I know they like having their own media deal, but it seems like they're sort of starting to struggle

 

[FDNY99]

BYU is a perfect example of the struggle for a school having a Independent program. I think adding those 2 schools to the AAC for football would be outstanding..and may even set up a true East/West division geographically.

 

[Fishy]

If you really want to help the American, you’d just do absolutely nothing and let the Mountain West and everyone in it wither and die.

Everyone is so willing to throw lifelines to drowning programs when we don’t have enough on the ship to feed what we’ve got.

 

[Confident Carl]

BYU is a perfect example of the struggle for a school having a Independent program. I think adding those 2 schools to the AAC for football would be outstanding..and may even set up a true East/West division geographically.

Boise just blasted Oregon in the Las Vegas bowl.
BYU and Boise would be great additions for the AAC.

 

[uconnphil2016]

If you really want to help the American, you’d just do absolutely nothing and let the Mountain West and everyone in it wither and die.

Everyone is so willing to throw lifelines to drowning programs when we don’t have enough on the ship to feed what we’ve got.

If we added Boise and BYU our revenue share would probably increase. Right now we are the highest revenue program by a long shot, and BYU brings in just as much as we do. They've got a national following. And taking Boise would ruin the MWC, what do you mean? It hurts them more than us not doing anything.

 

[noeynox]

I'd rather have Army, Air Force but those two would be next.

 

[Purple Stein]

I'd rather have Army, Air Force but those two would be next.

Take all 4, SDSU, Bohl's Wyoming and whoever else it takes to make the math work. Squeeze out the rest of the G5 -- turn them into a G4. Create an "American East" and an "American West" with a championship game between them. Make it exist in some strange liminal space between the G4 and the P5.

While we're at it, I would also like an NIT G4 tournament, with a semifinal and a championship game at the Rent. We'll call the finals the Delta Faucet Eggnog Bowl. 500 people will show up and we'll say it's 20,000, just like any respectable bowl game. If Orlando can do this, so can Hartford!

 

[UConnDan97]

Boise and BYU would make great sense for the league as "football-only" additions, but therein lies the problem.

Boise would have to stick their teams in the Big West with BYU, or something like that. Boise would have to guarantee that they get a much better tv contract than they currently do in order to justify the change, and we can't guarantee that.

Could it happen? Maybe. Would it be mutually beneficial? A lot of things would need to happen for that to be true...

 

[DoctorWho85]

Boise and BYU would make great sense for the league as "football-only" additions, but therein lies the problem.

Boise would have to stick their teams in the Big West with BYU, or something like that. Boise would have to guarantee that they get a much better tv contract than they currently do in order to justify the change, and we can't guarantee that.

Could it happen? Maybe. Would it be mutually beneficial? A lot of things would need to happen for that to be true...

BYU isn't a terrible add for basketball either.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Stop the madness! 12 teams in each sport is way more than enough. There's a way better argument that some schools shouldn't be in the league, let alone inviting BYU and Boise.

Want to play BYU? They have 12 open dates every single season. Make it happen again.

 

[Confident Carl]

Stop the madness! 12 teams in each sport is way more than enough. There's a way better argument that some schools shouldn't be in the league, let alone inviting BYU and Boise.

Want to play BYU? They have 12 open dates every single season. Make it happen again.

12 teams may be enough but adding Boise and BYU to UCF, USF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Temple, Cincy etc. pushes us more into P5 territory. Tough to argue that point. Reality is how to get most bang for the buck. If adding them adds to total revenue per team then you pursue it. If not screw it.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

12 teams may be enough but adding Boise and BYU to UCF, USF, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Temple, Cincy etc. pushes us more into P5 territory. Tough to argue that point. Reality is how to get most bang for the buck. If adding them adds to total revenue per team then you pursue it. If not screw it.

How does adding two non-P5 teams push you further into P5 territory?

 

[Jimdish255]

P5 is systematically excluding G5 teams from opportunites to challenge them in the Bowls. Not sure how you counter that business model. It's clearly anti-competitive.

 

[Confident Carl]

How does adding two non-P5 teams push you further into P5 territory?

I will add one key word to your question?

How does adding two of the "BEST" non-P5 teams push you further into P5 territory?

Boise State and BYU both have National followings.BYU avg home attendance 58,000.
Boise around 32,000. Not bad but college football as a whole is down

And some facts:

Boise State Bowl game results
Season Coach Bowl Opponent Result
1999 Dirk Koetter Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Louisville W 34–31
2000 Dirk Koetter Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl UTEP W 38–23
2002 Dan Hawkins Crucial.com Humanitarian Bowl Iowa State W 34–16
2003 Dan Hawkins PlainsCapital Fort Worth Bowl TCU W 34–31
2004 Dan Hawkins Autozone Liberty Bowl Louisville L 40–44
2005 Dan Hawkins MPC Computers Bowl Boston College L 21–27
2006 Chris Petersen Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma W 43–42 OT
2007 Chris Petersen Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl East Carolina L 38–41
2008 Chris Petersen San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl TCU L 16–17
2009 Chris Petersen Tostitos Fiesta Bowl TCU W 17–10
2010 Chris Petersen Maaco Bowl Las Vegas Utah W 26–3
2011 Chris Petersen Maaco Bowl Las Vegas Arizona State W 56–24
2012 Chris Petersen Maaco Bowl Las Vegas Washington W 28–26
2013 Bob Gregory Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl Oregon State L 23–38
2014 Bryan Harsin Vizio Fiesta Bowl Arizona W 38–30
2015 Bryan Harsin San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl Northern Illinois W 55–7
2016 Bryan Harsin Motel 6 Cactus Bowl Baylor L 12–31
2017 Bryan Harsin Las Vegas Bowl Oregon W 38–28

Out of 19 bowl games since 1999, Boise has beaten 12 P5 teams. The most recent being Oregon last week

Top 25 Finishes

Year Record AP Poll
2002 12–1 - 15
2003 13–1 - 16
2004 11–1 - 12
2006 13–0 - 5
2008 12–1 - 11
2009 14–0 - 4
2010 12–1 - 9
2011 12–1 - 8
2012 11–2 - 18
2014 12–2 - 16

Peterson leaving, just like Edsall had an effect including recruiting and also the P5 bias

BYU

Date Bowl W/L ScoreSeason Coach Bowl Opponent results
December 29, 1994 Copper Bowl W #19 BYU 31 Oklahoma 6
January 1, 1997 Cotton Bowl Classic W #5 BYU 19 #14 Kansas State 15
December 31, 1998 Liberty Bowl L BYU 27 #10 Tulane 41
December 27, 1999 Motor City Bowl L #25 BYU 3 #11 Marshall 21
December 31, 2001 Liberty Bowl L #17 BYU 10 #22 Louisville 28
December 22, 2005 Las Vegas Bowl L BYU 28 California 35
December 21, 2006 Las Vegas Bowl W #19 BYU 38 Oregon 8
December 22, 2007 Las Vegas Bowl W #17 BYU 17 UCLA 16
December 21, 2008 Las Vegas Bowl L #16 BYU 21 Arizona 31
December 22, 2009 Maaco Bowl Las Vegas W #14 BYU 44 #16 Oregon State 20
December 18, 2010 New Mexico Bowl W BYU 52 UTEP 24
December 30, 2011 Armed Forces Bowl W BYU 24 Tulsa 21
December 20, 2012 Poinsettia Bowl W BYU 23 San Diego State 6
December 27, 2013 Fight Hunger Bowl L BYU 16 Washington 31
December 22, 2014 Miami Beach Bowl L BYU 48 (2 OT) Memphis 55 (2 OT)
December 19, 2015 Las Vegas Bowl L BYU 28 #22 Utah 35
December 21, 2016 Poinsettia Bowl W BYU 24 Wyoming 21
Out of 17 bowl games since 1994 - 9 wins 5 against P5

Top 25 finishes

Season Overall Record AP Ranking Coaches Ranking BCS Ranking
1976 9–2 20
1979 11–1 13
1980 12–1 12
1981 11–2 13
1983 11–1 7
1984 13–0 1
1985 11–3 16
1989 10–3 22
1990 10–3 22
1991 8–3–23
1994 10–3 18
1996 14–1 5 5
2001 12–2 25
2006 11–2 16
2007 11–2 14
2008 10–3 25
2009 11–2 12
2011 10–3 25

18 top 25 finishes since 1974 #1 ranked in 1984

They would complete a strong Western division of the AAC ( Consideration should be made to add Airforce and Army.

WEST

Houston
SMU
Memphis
Boise State
BYU
Tulsa
Tulane
Air force

EAST

UCF
USF
ECU
Cincy
Temple
UCONN
Navy
Army

 

[Jaybird65]

Have a friend who is an assoc ad at a Big 10 school; has told me that BYU feels their best opportunity to get into a P5 conference is to remain independent in football right now. Said BYU is postured pretty good to go into the PAC 10/12 (whatever it's called now...) if/when that group decides to expand; for now BYU wants to keep all it's teams other than football pretty much out west & not interested in "nationwide" travel for now. My friend says no matter what folks think, the P5 thing is still football driven & the strength of one's football program remains the driver; says our football program has to show signs of being able to return to it's state under RE 1.0 to better posture us

 

[ConnHuskBask]

@Confident Carl

If the payout for AAC teams is around $3M/year right now, then Boise or BYU would have to bring an additional $16M each in order to justify the league adding them and gaining a material difference in per team TV payout - say an extra $1M per team.

$3M x 12 teams = $36M

$4M x 13 teams = $52M

What network is paying an additional $16M for BYU or Boise? Answer, nobody.

Boise right now makes around $3M annually in their tv deal Boise State football tickets generate less revenue every year. ‘I’m concerned,’ AD says.

BYU makes around $5 annually in their tv deal: BYU football: Is that ESPN contract money as much as we thought?

It's literally just simple math. What don't you understand?

 

[UConnDan97]

Have a friend who is an assoc ad at a Big 10 school; has told me that BYU feels their best opportunity to get into a P5 conference is to remain independent in football right now. Said BYU is postured pretty good to go into the PAC 10/12 (whatever it's called now...) if/when that group decides to expand; for now BYU wants to keep all it's teams other than football pretty much out west & not interested in "nationwide" travel for now. My friend says no matter what folks think, the P5 thing is still football driven & the strength of one's football program remains the driver; says our football program has to show signs of being able to return to it's state under RE 1.0 to better posture us

And yet that's not what played out when the Big12 came calling. BYU might feel that they are well positioned for a PAC12 expansion, but they also know that there is no real driving force for that to happen. And that's why there was so much excitement on their part when the Big12 came calling. Independence is a rough road for folks not named "Notre Dame"...

 

[Confident Carl]

@Confident Carl

If the payout for AAC teams is around $3M/year right now, then Boise or BYU would have to bring an additional $16M each in order to justify the league adding them and gaining a material difference in per team TV payout - say an extra $1M per team.

$3M x 12 teams = $36M

$4M x 13 teams = $52M

What network is paying an additional $16M for BYU or Boise? Answer, nobody.

Boise right now makes around $3M annually in their tv deal Boise State football tickets generate less revenue every year. ‘I’m concerned,’ AD says.

BYU makes around $5 annually in their tv deal: BYU football: Is that ESPN contract money as much as we thought?

It's literally just simple math. What don't you understand?

The effort will be to maximize the TV contract so in simple terms Mike Aresco presents different scenarios:

1. Existing AAC Configuration
2. Configured with 2 Additional teams, Boise & BYU
3. Configured with 4 Additional teams, Boise, BYU, Navy & Army

Questions:

Would the addition of a National quality team like BYU move the needle and increase overall value and revenue?
What effect would the addition of Boise and the blue field mean monetarily for the AAC?
How about if the AAC incorporates all 3 military academies in the American conference creating a super patriotic league?

Army-Navy game TV rights would have to be factored in. You raised some valid questions but I would think that Aresco and staff together with the University presidentswill explore all avenues to maximize the Television contract. You may be correct and adding additional teams will dilute per team revenue. I just don't know. In general my guess is the addition of 2 or 4 of the above teams would increase perceived value and therefore increase revenue per team.

I followed the Big 12 expansion effort pretty carefully so I understand their stance on diluting the revenue. This is a different scenario. The AAC is trying to drive home the point that they are a genuine P6 conference. BYU and BSU in particular make for a much stronger argument. Adding Army and Air force adds some sizzle.

 

[Fishy]

No one is giving this conference an extra dollar because we add Boise.

I laughed out loud at the idea that Boise has a national following.

You can’t even get cell service on their campus - their television market is worth roughly nothing and they’re one bad hire away from being Idaho.

 

[BlueMAB]

I'm not sure what's the more ridiculous argument...adding Boise St, or buying the Panthers to move them to Hartford. Tough call.

 

[Fishy]

I'm not sure what's the more ridiculous argument...adding Boise St, or buying the Panthers to move them to Hartford. Tough call.

Oh, no - we’re definitely buying the Panthers.

That’s happening.

 

[uconnphil2016]

No one is giving this conference an extra dollar because we add Boise.

I laughed out loud at the idea that Boise has a national following.

You can’t even get cell service on their campus - their television market is worth roughly nothing and they’re one bad hire away from being Idaho.

When I said national following that was in reference to BYU

 

[Fishy]

When I said national following that was in reference to BYU

I saw that - if you look at one of the denser posts above, the poster posits that Boise has a national following as well.

 

[uconnphil2016]

I saw that - if you look at one of the denser posts above, the poster posits that Boise has a national following as well.

Okay yeah, I can't agree with that. Maybe nationally recognizable on the football field, but not a national following