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I don't know, seems like every year 1 of the top 10 kids has a major injury (Bradley last yr, Giles yr before) and for awhile all of those kids were drafted by the Sixers! I don't follow recruiting so I don't even know the #1-20 high school ranked kids we don't hear about & never get drafted. The risk isn't career ending injury, its the risk that any injury severely impacts your draft position and first contract.While not wrong, the risk of career threatening injury is much lower than 1/20. 1/100? 1/200? It doesn't include the risk of a medium level injury (ACL or something) causing you to fall in the draft.
That's probably higher than 1/20 and then we'd have to know exactly what they are insuring.
Probably its something like $250K of first year's contract, meaning they only pay to the extent you don't make 250. Then you've lowered the risk (not guaranteeing lottery or even first round) and made it such that only the most catastrophic 1/100+ injuries you mention cause a payout.
My point is people on message boards like to throw out that players can just buy insurance and they are automatically fully protected. Anyone who has ever bought any type of insurance or made a claim knows it doesn't quite magically work that way.